May I ask a question?

[adamstrange]

But I do think comparing top versus top is a valid test of desirability for each book.

Another interesting comparison would be the total value of all copies of an issue. That might be even more embarrassingly in favor of SA.

Interesting. Kind of a market capitalization concept.

 

I've often wondered where the major Gold, Silver, and Bronze books would fall out if assessed on a market capitalization basis, but I have never taken the time to crunch the numbers.

 

That said, for illustrative purposes, looking at the CGC Census, and applying my personal estimated FMVs based on the various grades therein, here is how the market cap of CGC Universal Graded copies would fall out for arguably the most significant key books across each of the Gold, Silver and Bronze ages:

 

Action #1: $13,000,000

AF #15: $15,500,000

Hulk #181: $4,500,000

 

Others may apply slightly different FMVs, but unless I really messed something up while totaling the values in my head while viewing the census data for these three books, these figures should be in the general ballpark.

Nice work! (thumbs u

 

I like that you added in Hulk 181 as it is the key BA book but I would never have thought of its market cap being that high.

 

And it shows that just slabbing the Church copy would put Action 1 back on top.

If you`re going to include the Church Action 1, then wouldn`t you have to similarly include rumored high grade AF 15s that haven`t been slabbed yet? Plus, what is the FMV of the Church Action 1?

I could see the Church copy being worth $3m without having to enter the realm of science fiction. I did consider that there are also other unslabbed Action 1s (there's an 8.0+ copy -- and it's not one that Mehdy has mentioned) to offset additional AF15s. The race between the two books is admittedly close and we're doing a fair bit of guessing so I don't take my position too seriously.

[Ted Knight]

"The one odd characteristic about the collection was that the newer (mid-1950's) comics averaged about "Fine" condition, while the older (1940's) comics I was running across were seemingly unread."

That's different than "second hand." There were second-hand 50s books and there were second hand early books (Tec 27 etc) but the reason for the condition difference, so far as I have observed, is due to the fragile nature of 50s books which have thinner cover stock and fewer pages. Also, Chuck's original list did not distinguish any intermediate grade between Fine and NM so the difference in average grade, which I certain is significant, is not quite as severe as it would appear on the surface.

 

He then purchased comics used for about another five years, before giving up entirely. It was based upon my inspection of those 1953-1958 used comics by which I made my original bid for the collection

I have and have seen a number of the 1953 and on books (all Westerns) and I've not seen any that could be identified as used just by looking at them. They are still superb copies structurally with beautiful pages for the time period.

 

In contrast, I have seen quite a few second-hand Church books from the 1938 - 1952 time period and they were easy to recognize as used. It's possible that these 1953+ used copies were disposed of in such a way that they have been off the market or sold without much fanfare and are no longer identified as Church copies and that's why I haven't seen any. I prefer to have the physical evidence to line up with the memories of key participants because of the fallibility of memory, especially of events 34 years ago regarding facts of little importance at that time.

 

That's good stuff to know. It's sort of an interesting side note about the Church books that some were purchased used and how they compare with the subscription copies. (thumbs u

 

But my point is still valid, without the GFC there would indeed be a lull during that time period.

[adamstrange]

But I do think comparing top versus top is a valid test of desirability for each book.

Another interesting comparison would be the total value of all copies of an issue. That might be even more embarrassingly in favor of SA.

Interesting. Kind of a market capitalization concept.

 

I've often wondered where the major Gold, Silver, and Bronze books would fall out if assessed on a market capitalization basis, but I have never taken the time to crunch the numbers.

 

That said, for illustrative purposes, looking at the CGC Census, and applying my personal estimated FMVs based on the various grades therein, here is how the market cap of CGC Universal Graded copies would fall out for arguably the most significant key books across each of the Gold, Silver and Bronze ages:

 

Action #1: $13,000,000

AF #15: $15,500,000

Hulk #181: $4,500,000

 

Others may apply slightly different FMVs, but unless I really messed something up while totaling the values in my head while viewing the census data for these three books, these figures should be in the general ballpark.

I guess it depends on how you derived your FMV and how "F" the "MV" is. That will probably be the controversial part of anyone`s calculations, since AF 15 has not sold in every grade recently, and Action 1 certainly hasn`t.

 

The FMV that I used for Action 1 was based on recent sales including $1.5 mill and $1 mil for the 8.5 and 8.0 (if I recall correctly), as well as the $650K or thereabouts sale of Peter's 6.5 (I remember it was north of $600). After that I basically applied a $100K per grade point rule to fill in the FMVs for the remaining Universal copies (a bit more than that for the 7.5)... (I did so quickly in my head so a bit of rounding along the way)

 

The FMVs for the AF #15 were also based on recent sales that I was aware of, including $1 mil or thereabout for the 9.6 copy, I estimated $500K per for the 9.4s, $250K per for the 9.2s, $1 mil for the 6 copies in 9.0, and so one (much more GPA data for the lower grades, which, I applied from memory, rounding along the way since calcs done quickly in my head).

 

The FMVs for the Hulk #181 were similarly done based on recent sales including $150K (if I recall correctly) for the 9.9, $15K per for the 9.8s (which is maybe a bit high these days), $5K per for the 9.6s (again, probably a bit high these days), $2.5K per for the 9.4s, and so on.

 

While there may be some debate about the FMVs that I applied, I think most would agree that they're probably in the general ballpark, which is all that I was hoping for on this exercise...

 

You were close on these sales:

$625k for the Action 6.5

$1.1m for the AF15 9.6

[Superman2006]

But I do think comparing top versus top is a valid test of desirability for each book.

Another interesting comparison would be the total value of all copies of an issue. That might be even more embarrassingly in favor of SA.

Interesting. Kind of a market capitalization concept.

 

I've often wondered where the major Gold, Silver, and Bronze books would fall out if assessed on a market capitalization basis, but I have never taken the time to crunch the numbers.

 

That said, for illustrative purposes, looking at the CGC Census, and applying my personal estimated FMVs based on the various grades therein, here is how the market cap of CGC Universal Graded copies would fall out for arguably the most significant key books across each of the Gold, Silver and Bronze ages:

 

Action #1: $13,000,000

AF #15: $15,500,000

Hulk #181: $4,500,000

 

Others may apply slightly different FMVs, but unless I really messed something up while totaling the values in my head while viewing the census data for these three books, these figures should be in the general ballpark.

I guess it depends on how you derived your FMV and how "F" the "MV" is. That will probably be the controversial part of anyone`s calculations, since AF 15 has not sold in every grade recently, and Action 1 certainly hasn`t.

 

The FMV that I used for Action 1 was based on recent sales including $1.5 mill and $1 mil for the 8.5 and 8.0 (if I recall correctly), as well as the $650K or thereabouts sale of Peter's 6.5 (I remember it was north of $600). After that I basically applied a $100K per grade point rule to fill in the FMVs for the remaining Universal copies (a bit more than that for the 7.5)... (I did so quickly in my head so a bit of rounding along the way)

 

The FMVs for the AF #15 were also based on recent sales that I was aware of, including $1 mil or thereabout for the 9.6 copy, I estimated $500K per for the 9.4s, $250K per for the 9.2s, $1 mil for the 6 copies in 9.0, and so one (much more GPA data for the lower grades, which, I applied from memory, rounding along the way since calcs done quickly in my head).

 

The FMVs for the Hulk #181 were similarly done based on recent sales including $150K (if I recall correctly) for the 9.9, $15K per for the 9.8s (which is maybe a bit high these days), $5K per for the 9.6s (again, probably a bit high these days), $2.5K per for the 9.4s, and so on.

 

While there may be some debate about the FMVs that I applied, I think most would agree that they're probably in the general ballpark, which is all that I was hoping for on this exercise...

 

You were close on these sales:

$625k for the Action 6.5

$1.1m for the AF15 9.6

 

Cool. Thanks.

[adamstrange]

"The one odd characteristic about the collection was that the newer (mid-1950's) comics averaged about "Fine" condition, while the older (1940's) comics I was running across were seemingly unread."

That's different than "second hand." There were second-hand 50s books and there were second hand early books (Tec 27 etc) but the reason for the condition difference, so far as I have observed, is due to the fragile nature of 50s books which have thinner cover stock and fewer pages. Also, Chuck's original list did not distinguish any intermediate grade between Fine and NM so the difference in average grade, which I certain is significant, is not quite as severe as it would appear on the surface.

 

He then purchased comics used for about another five years, before giving up entirely. It was based upon my inspection of those 1953-1958 used comics by which I made my original bid for the collection

I have and have seen a number of the 1953 and on books (all Westerns) and I've not seen any that could be identified as used just by looking at them. They are still superb copies structurally with beautiful pages for the time period.

 

In contrast, I have seen quite a few second-hand Church books from the 1938 - 1952 time period and they were easy to recognize as used. It's possible that these 1953+ used copies were disposed of in such a way that they have been off the market or sold without much fanfare and are no longer identified as Church copies and that's why I haven't seen any. I prefer to have the physical evidence to line up with the memories of key participants because of the fallibility of memory, especially of events 34 years ago regarding facts of little importance at that time.

 

That's good stuff to know. It's sort of an interesting side note about the Church books that some were purchased used and how they compare with the subscription copies. (thumbs u

 

But my point is still valid, without the GFC there would indeed be a lull during that time period.

Where Gaines most dominate the population stats is for 9.8 and 9.9. It would be interesting to drill into those categories.

[adamstrange]

Cool. Thanks.

You did a nice job so it's really "thank you!"

 

It's possible to nitpick but we ultimately can only be so accurate as tth2 pointed out given the infrequency of sales.

[Ted Knight]

Where Gaines most dominate the population stats is for 9.8 and 9.9. It would be interesting to drill into those categories.

 

Okay, you got me going now, buddy. Check it out.

 

In 1951

9.9 - 5

9.8 - 127

9.6 - 388

 

in 1952

9.9 - 3

9.8 - 103

9.6 - 303

 

in 1953

9.9 - 2

9.8 - 66

9.6 - 276

 

in 1954

9.9 - 0

9.8 - 27

9.6 - 196

 

in 1955

9.9 - 1

9.8 - 59

9.6 - 264

in 1956

9.9 - 0

9.8 - 23

9.6 -237

 

I didn't expect to see that many 9.9s.

[Ted Knight]

in 1953 one of the 9.9s was a Shock Suspenstories 6

 

and the other was a Mad 4

[adamstrange]

What we need are the totals of just the Gaines copies for those grades/years. That's what I meant by drilling into the categories.

[adamstrange]

in 1953 one of the 9.9s was a Shock Suspenstories 6

They would indeed be quite a book!

 

I've seen a couple of the 9.9s when Halperin gave me a viewing of his EC books. They were very nice.

[tth2]

Plus, what is the FMV of the Church Action 1?

 

This is a far more complicated question than I think most people realize. I think all anyone could say safely is that it is no less than $5 million and no more than... unknown. (thumbs u

 

I don`t think it`s quite the slamdunk you make it out to be. What if it turns out to be restored? What if the grade is only 9.0? What if this better copy mentioned by Mitch really exists? What if projections based on existing values is great on paper, but when it comes down to it, no one is really willing to write a multi-million dollar check for a comic book?

 

I think Adam`s estimate of $3 million is appropriately conservative.

[tth2]

But I do think comparing top versus top is a valid test of desirability for each book.

Another interesting comparison would be the total value of all copies of an issue. That might be even more embarrassingly in favor of SA.

Interesting. Kind of a market capitalization concept.

 

I've often wondered where the major Gold, Silver, and Bronze books would fall out if assessed on a market capitalization basis, but I have never taken the time to crunch the numbers.

 

That said, for illustrative purposes, looking at the CGC Census, and applying my personal estimated FMVs based on the various grades therein, here is how the market cap of CGC Universal Graded copies would fall out for arguably the most significant key books across each of the Gold, Silver and Bronze ages:

 

Action #1: $13,000,000

AF #15: $15,500,000

Hulk #181: $4,500,000

 

Others may apply slightly different FMVs, but unless I really messed something up while totaling the values in my head while viewing the census data for these three books, these figures should be in the general ballpark.

I guess it depends on how you derived your FMV and how "F" the "MV" is. That will probably be the controversial part of anyone`s calculations, since AF 15 has not sold in every grade recently, and Action 1 certainly hasn`t.

 

The FMV that I used for Action 1 was based on recent sales including $1.5 mill and $1 mil for the 8.5 and 8.0 (if I recall correctly), as well as the $650K or thereabouts sale of Peter's 6.5 (I remember it was north of $600). After that I basically applied a $100K per grade point rule to fill in the FMVs for the remaining Universal copies (a bit more than that for the 7.5)... (I did so quickly in my head so a bit of rounding along the way)

 

The FMVs for the AF #15 were also based on recent sales that I was aware of, including $1 mil or thereabout for the 9.6 copy, I estimated $500K per for the 9.4s, $250K per for the 9.2s, $1 mil for the 6 copies in 9.0, and so one (much more GPA data for the lower grades, which, I applied from memory, rounding along the way since calcs done quickly in my head).

 

The FMVs for the Hulk #181 were similarly done based on recent sales including $150K (if I recall correctly) for the 9.9, $15K per for the 9.8s (which is maybe a bit high these days), $5K per for the 9.6s (again, probably a bit high these days), $2.5K per for the 9.4s, and so on.

 

While there may be some debate about the FMVs that I applied, I think most would agree that they're probably in the general ballpark, which is all that I was hoping for on this exercise...

(thumbs u Seems like very sound bases for your valuations. If anything, you were probably generous in your valuations of the AF 15s.

[COI]

But I do think comparing top versus top is a valid test of desirability for each book.

Another interesting comparison would be the total value of all copies of an issue. That might be even more embarrassingly in favor of SA.

Interesting. Kind of a market capitalization concept.

 

I've often wondered where the major Gold, Silver, and Bronze books would fall out if assessed on a market capitalization basis, but I have never taken the time to crunch the numbers.

 

That said, for illustrative purposes, looking at the CGC Census, and applying my personal estimated FMVs based on the various grades therein, here is how the market cap of CGC Universal Graded copies would fall out for arguably the most significant key books across each of the Gold, Silver and Bronze ages:

 

Action #1: $13,000,000

AF #15: $15,500,000

Hulk #181: $4,500,000

 

Others may apply slightly different FMVs, but unless I really messed something up while totaling the values in my head while viewing the census data for these three books, these figures should be in the general ballpark.

Nice work! (thumbs u

 

I like that you added in Hulk 181 as it is the key BA book but I would never have thought of its market cap being that high.

 

And it shows that just slabbing the Church copy would put Action 1 back on top.

If you`re going to include the Church Action 1, then wouldn`t you have to similarly include rumored high grade AF 15s that haven`t been slabbed yet? Plus, what is the FMV of the Church Action 1?

I could see the Church copy being worth $3m without having to enter the realm of science fiction. I did consider that there are also other unslabbed Action 1s (there's an 8.0+ copy -- and it's not one that Mehdy has mentioned) to offset additional AF15s. The race between the two books is admittedly close and we're doing a fair bit of guessing so I don't take my position too seriously.

 

With mid grade copies of AF 15 selling for 5 figures, I think AF 15 takes it purely on numbers. I have to imagine there are a ton of copies in the 5.0-7.5 range lurking around out there.

[Ted Knight]

Plus, what is the FMV of the Church Action 1?

 

This is a far more complicated question than I think most people realize. I think all anyone could say safely is that it is no less than $5 million and no more than... unknown. (thumbs u

 

I don`t think it`s quite the slamdunk you make it out to be. What if it turns out to be restored? What if the grade is only 9.0? What if this better copy mentioned by Mitch really exists? What if projections based on existing values is great on paper, but when it comes down to it, no one is really willing to write a multi-million dollar check for a comic book?

 

I think Adam`s estimate of $3 million is appropriately conservative.

 

Respectfully, I disagree with a few of your points as they seem argumentative without much basis. I don't pretend that pricing the Church Action 1 is a slamdunk, in fact, the opposite. As I said, I think it's too complicated to predict.

 

There is no basis for believing the book is restored. I've never heard anyone even suggest it, but perhaps you know something more concrete. The book is widely regarded by those who have seen it, as the best copy in existence. As to the other copy that Mitch refers to, I think there would need to be more than just his say so to give the claim much veracity. I'm sure Mitch would understand that as well.

 

It is possible that there is a "perceptual ceiling" to the value of comic books. I suggested so earlier in this thread, but there aren't a lot of reasons to believe so given recent sales figures.

 

All that said, I do believe that Adamstrange provided a conservative estimate which may be correct. However, if the goal is to quantify the value of all copies of a given book, then I think it's worth noting that a single book could exceed the value of all copies of any other book.

[conditionfreak]

Has anyone mentioned how lame the golden age Superman and Batman stories are, and how awesome the silver age stories of Marvel are (better than any bronze age stories in my opinion, by the way)? Does that get taken into account in this equation?

[tth2]

There is no basis for believing the book is restored. I've never heard anyone even suggest it

Only like every thread that has ever discussed the book.

[adamstrange]

There is no basis for believing the book is restored. I've never heard anyone even suggest it

Only like every thread that has ever discussed the book.

Since I have joined, in none of those threads have the people making the statement offered any reason why they think it might be restored. I regard it as noise.

[Krusty007]

But I do think comparing top versus top is a valid test of desirability for each book.

Another interesting comparison would be the total value of all copies of an issue. That might be even more embarrassingly in favor of SA.

Interesting. Kind of a market capitalization concept.

 

I've often wondered where the major Gold, Silver, and Bronze books would fall out if assessed on a market capitalization basis, but I have never taken the time to crunch the numbers.

 

That said, for illustrative purposes, looking at the CGC Census, and applying my personal estimated FMVs based on the various grades therein, here is how the market cap of CGC Universal Graded copies would fall out for arguably the most significant key books across each of the Gold, Silver and Bronze ages:

 

Action #1: $13,000,000

AF #15: $15,500,000

Hulk #181: $4,500,000

 

Others may apply slightly different FMVs, but unless I really messed something up while totaling the values in my head while viewing the census data for these three books, these figures should be in the general ballpark.

 

Very interesting! I like the ''market capitalization'' approach. It interesting to see that an SA key like AF#15 has a bigger ''capitalization'' value that the holy grail GA AC #1.

 

Dom

[ciorac]

But I do think comparing top versus top is a valid test of desirability for each book.

Another interesting comparison would be the total value of all copies of an issue. That might be even more embarrassingly in favor of SA.

Interesting. Kind of a market capitalization concept.

 

I've often wondered where the major Gold, Silver, and Bronze books would fall out if assessed on a market capitalization basis, but I have never taken the time to crunch the numbers.

 

That said, for illustrative purposes, looking at the CGC Census, and applying my personal estimated FMVs based on the various grades therein, here is how the market cap of CGC Universal Graded copies would fall out for arguably the most significant key books across each of the Gold, Silver and Bronze ages:

 

Action #1: $13,000,000

AF #15: $15,500,000

Hulk #181: $4,500,000

 

Others may apply slightly different FMVs, but unless I really messed something up while totaling the values in my head while viewing the census data for these three books, these figures should be in the general ballpark.

 

Very interesting! I like the ''market capitalization'' approach. It interesting to see that an SA key like AF#15 has a bigger ''capitalization'' value that the holy grail GA AC #1.

 

Dom

 

It's only interesting to the degree mentioned above, but when you factor in the THOUSANDS more copies of AF 15 vs Action 1, the fact that Action 1 can still hold its own is more impressive in my view

[comicdonna]

But I do think comparing top versus top is a valid test of desirability for each book.

Another interesting comparison would be the total value of all copies of an issue. That might be even more embarrassingly in favor of SA.

Interesting. Kind of a market capitalization concept.

 

I've often wondered where the major Gold, Silver, and Bronze books would fall out if assessed on a market capitalization basis, but I have never taken the time to crunch the numbers.

 

That said, for illustrative purposes, looking at the CGC Census, and applying my personal estimated FMVs based on the various grades therein, here is how the market cap of CGC Universal Graded copies would fall out for arguably the most significant key books across each of the Gold, Silver and Bronze ages:

 

Action #1: $13,000,000

AF #15: $15,500,000

Hulk #181: $4,500,000

 

Others may apply slightly different FMVs, but unless I really messed something up while totaling the values in my head while viewing the census data for these three books, these figures should be in the general ballpark.

 

Very interesting! I like the ''market capitalization'' approach. It interesting to see that an SA key like AF#15 has a bigger ''capitalization'' value that the holy grail GA AC #1.

 

Dom

 

It's only interesting to the degree mentioned above, but when you factor in the THOUSANDS more copies of AF 15 vs Action 1, the fact that Action 1 can still hold its own is more impressive in my view

For sure, Bill! (thumbs u