Post your Overstreet Surprises...

[aardvark88]

What really seems to be the issue is:

 

What is the guide value of 9.4 books?

 

I'm talking about post-1965 Silver-Age and Bronze-Age books? Assuming you see these books at shows (or reputable dealers), what percent above 9.2 are you willing to pay?

 

Dealers may ask for 1.5 x nm- OS for hi-grade "file" copies but if the demand is not there, no one will pay it. Collector may insist that the dealer pay the Cgc tax & wait 4.5 months to get their slabbed books back b4 turning the book over at the comicon or eBay level.

[uclapeterg]

BTW I will pay $30 for a nice 9.2 or above of fantastic four 128.

 

if you're looking at a raw NM book that guides for $20 in NM- (and was $18 last year in NM), what's the current price/value?

 

Depends on the book...a true NM FF # 129 with white cover and pages would be a $40 book (to me)...double the NM- price. An FF # 127, on the other hand, since I have two nice copies already, is a $22-$25 book tops.

 

Since there is no longer a set "NM 9.4" Guide value, the price will be set by demand, which is as it should be.

[fantastic_four]

Whether or not people feel a 9.2 should be worth the same slabbed or not, the reality is that the market does not value raw books the same as slabbed books.

 

What about the dealers who DO get multiples of guide for their 9.2 or greater raw books? Do they not count, or are they such a small minority that they're insignificant?

 

Do you get multiples on your raw books, Banner? You've got a reputation as a tight grader; is that helping you to get prices anywhere near what slabbed books get? If not, how do you think some other dealers are able to get multiples?

[drbanner]

Whether or not people feel a 9.2 should be worth the same slabbed or not, the reality is that the market does not value raw books the same as slabbed books.

 

What about the dealers who DO get multiples of guide for their 9.2 or greater raw books? Do they not count, or are they such a small minority that they're insignificant?

 

Do you get multiples on your raw books, Banner? You've got a reputation as a tight grader; is that helping you to get prices anywhere near what slabbed books get? If not, how do you think some other dealers are able to get multiples?

 

I certainly don't get CGC multiples, but on the better raw stuff I do get over guide.

 

I realize that some dealers ask/get slabbed prices for their raw high-grade books (for example, I checked Bob's website and his raw prices are slightly lower than his slabbed prices, but not by much), but in general, raw books do not get slabbed book prices and if those same dealers offered the same book in the same grade raw and slabbed on ebay, the slabbed books would do much, much better. Obviously these guys get good prices on their raw stuff due to a large, established customer base, but on the whole, buyers place a $-premium on slabbed books.

 

This discrepancy is obvious on ebay and could be attributed to buyer's confidence in the grading, but it also happens with Heritage auctions (which is why I think there are great deals to be found on their raw books! ).

 

I agree that a NM- copy should be worth the same raw or slabbed (the grading fee notwithstanding), but is the purpose of the guide to show what books should sell for, or what they actually do sell for? I dunno...

[fantastic_four]

I agree that a NM- copy should be worth the same raw or slabbed (the grading fee notwithstanding), but is the purpose of the guide to show what books should sell for, or what they actually do sell for? I dunno...

 

So how do they guys who get the multiples do it? Why are people paying those multiples?

 

Let's take comic-keys as an example. How has he been getting as much as 10x to 20x guide for some of the raw Silver Age 9.6s and 9.8s he's listed in recent years?

[lou_fine]

See, you've already accepted the guide is irrelevant!!

 

Banner;

 

Can't buy your argument here. I strongly feel that this edition of the guide is more relevant than ever since it attempts to make a much more sincere attempt to reflect the real market of today. I feel that the move down to 9.2 was a move in the right direction for most books and is more reflective of the current market. A more perfect way of doing it would have been using 9.0 for GA, 9.2 for SA, 9.4 for BA, and 9.6 for Modern books. I guess we can't ask for everything in one year.

 

You have to remember that the OS annual guide is really geared more towards the older collectible books as oppossed to the new books. In this part of the market, 9.4 books ARE very volatile and prices could move significantly up or down from one sale to the next. Overstreet simply wants to remove the big guide from this part of the speculative market since he always wants a sense of stability in the annual guide. Let the market decide what the 9.4's should be going for similar to how they currently decide what the 9.6's and 9.8's go for. The last thing conservative Bob wants to do is to keep the NM column and show significant increases in price (say 100%) one year only to be followed by significant decreases in price (say 40%) the following year. There is no way he wants the big guide to be held hostage by a very small group of speculators and big money investors.

 

This format change is nothing new to the guide. I still remember the guide sticking with Good, Fine, and Mint for what seem like forever. Times change, the market changes, and the guide also eventually changes to reflect this. If you still insist on using 9.4 as your standard base, even though it may not be realistic for most books, you can simply refer to the complimentary OCPR. I am sure these prices will be swinging around quite a bit and this volatility is probably the main reason why Bob dropped them from the big guide:

 

You can see your AF #15 at $94K; ASM #1 at $68K; DD#1 at $11.55K; FF#1 at $90K; Hulk #1 at $67K; Hulk #181 at $2.2K; Iron Man #1 dropping to only $650 (note: only a 18% premium above a 9.2); JLA #1 at $18K; etc, etc. Heck, you can even see them in 9.6 or 9.8 if they exist (eg. Hulk #181 in 9.8 for the princely sum of $18K).

 

Hopefully, you feel a lot better now that you can see some high end prices. For me, the 9.2 base is good enough since anything above that for collectible books is too rarified and volatile for my taste.

[drbanner]

I agree that a NM- copy should be worth the same raw or slabbed (the grading fee notwithstanding), but is the purpose of the guide to show what books should sell for, or what they actually do sell for? I dunno...

 

So how do they guys who get the multiples do it? Why are people paying those multiples?

 

Let's take comic-keys as an example. How has he been getting as much as 10x to 20x guide for some of the raw Silver Age 9.6s and 9.8s he's listed in recent years?

 

Good question...maybe they think the books are undergraded? Maybe they're confident they'll be able to slab them and get the same grade?

[drice6900]

What is the guide value of 9.4 books?

 

I like the fact that there is none...and that Overstreet has taken itself out of trying to assess/predict this volatile area of high grade collecting. In the coming year, many 9.4s will sell for under 9.2 Guide, and many will fetch many multiples of NM-, both slabbed and raw. Let the market do its thing.

 

[drbanner]

A more perfect way of doing it would have been using 9.0 for GA, 9.2 for SA, 9.4 for BA, and 9.6 for Modern books.

 

I agree...and actually I was curious to see whether or not there was some kind of disclaimer in the guide that the top end prices listed were reflective of your guidelines above.

[lou_fine]

A more perfect way of doing it would have been using 9.0 for GA, 9.2 for SA, 9.4 for BA, and 9.6 for Modern books.

 

I agree...and actually I was curious to see whether or not there was some kind of disclaimer in the guide that the top end prices listed were reflective of your guidelines above.

 

The only disclaimer that I was hoping to get was for the Modern books at 9.6. Didn't really expect to get one for GA at 9.0 since this would have been a direct contradiction of the 9.0 listed prices and would have caused total confusion. For pricing purposes, didn't OS used to state that new books were listed at cover prices although they may actually sell at a substantial discount to this price?

 

Another good thing which I just noticed with this guide was an attempt to set a guideline for the valuation of restored books. OS takes a stab at this on page 53 by listing percentage to guide for restored books based upon ages, grade, and extent of restoration. No idea if the percentages are right, but this certainly looks like another good idea to reflect what is happening in the real marketplace. Nothing in there for Modern books, so I guess they are worthless if they are restored.

[drbanner]

For pricing purposes, didn't OS used to state that new books were listed at cover prices although they may actually sell at a substantial discount to this price?

 

Yep, which is what made me think there may be something similar this time 'round.

 

Another good thing which I just noticed with this guide was an attempt to set a guideline for the valuation of restored books. OS takes a stab at this on page 53 by listing percentage to guide for restored books based upon ages, grade, and extent of restoration. No idea if the percentages are right, but this certainly looks like another good idea to reflect what is happening in the real marketplace. Nothing in there for Modern books, so I guess they are worthless if they are restored.

 

I liked Matt's whole discussion of quantifying/qualifying restoration and restoration removal as well. I didn't peek at last year's guide, but I do have the '02 guide handy and it doesn't have anything comparable to the discussion in the '04 guide!

[FFB]

My only disagreement here is that the slabbed "value" should include the grading fee, which can go up to $1,000 depending on the book. Other than that, I agree completely. The problem is, people who pay extra for the "Top Census" or "Near Top Census" books make a different reality.

 

Where do the CGC nm books come from?....i.e. they were obviously raw at some point. Not everyone wants their book in a slab. Sorry, I just have problems with people using absolutes(nothing personal). Yes, there are most likely few nm silver books around, but it is still possible.

 

I agree entirely. I've been arguing this for years here--there should be no built-in difference in raw and slabbed pricing. A price listed for an unrestored, high-grade comic should be the price listed for an unrestored, high-grade comic, regardless of whether it's in a slab or not. If you price the raws separately from the slabbed, then the misperception begins to grow that people are paying for the slab and not the book, when in reality for most expensive vintage comics, people are paying for the book itself--the slab is just an assurance of quality (I'm not talking about sub-$100 books where restoration isn't a risk, particularly slabbed Moderns--that's an entirely different market and the motivations for buying slabs are different). Is the quality assured by the slab 100% accurate? No, but NOBODY'S grading is given the current scale and current standards. But it's just about as good as it currently gets.

 

Sellers who convince buyers they can grade and/or detect restoration well have gotten multiples of guide for raw books for years. Ironically, comic-keys is one of the best examples of this! He has always gotten multiples for his color-touched and trimmed, doctored EBay scans.

[FFB]

If the seller is a legitimate dealer with an impeccable reputation, I disagree (for example, if Jason Ewert, Metro, or Bob Storms ran a raw NM silver auction, I wouldn't think twice about bidding or paying top dollar). But for some no-name seller, I think the chances of the book being a scam are so high that I wouldn't personally bid on it.

 

Just a quick thought here.

 

Daredevil #1 in the guide last year was $3200 in 9.4

 

This year it is $3800 in 9.2.

 

So how much do you think a raw NM copy will go for ?

 

That question is irrelevant as you will never see a legitimate raw NM Daredevil #1 for sale. If you do, it is vastly overgraded or a scam. Same with other NM key books of that calibur.-----Sid

 

People do still have raw silver nm books in their collection. They most likely aren't going to be up for sale until the owner dies or is forced to sell.

 

Where do the CGC nm books come from?....i.e. they were obviously raw at some point. Not everyone wants their book in a slab. Sorry, I just have problems with people using absolutes(nothing personal). Yes, there are most likely few nm silver books around, but it is still possible.

 

You apparently did not get my point. Of course there are still many raw NM Silver books around. But my comment was about a book the calibur of a NM Daredevil #1 that is put up for sale that is Raw at the time of offering. Sure, there are people with raw books worth five grand or more. But when these guys decide to sell they would be STUPID (IMO) to not get them slabbed first. I am not talking about whether the book should sell for more or less because of the slab, I am just saying nobody that knows anything about valuable comics these days who wants to sell a legitimate NM book worth thousands of dollars is going to try to sell it raw unless it is to their good buddy or relative. Or to a total pro collector or dealer who has the ability to examine the book in person with the ability to detect restoration. Sure, there may be an exception or two, but not enough to make my point invalid. -----Sid

[sfilosa]

Other than the obvious reason not to have an expensive book graded before selling (i.e. the books overgraded or restored), there is one other reason.

 

PAGE QUALITY.

 

It wouldn't surprise me that many of the RAW books that are sold by DEALERS / AUCTION HOUSES that you would normally see CGC'd, have lower page quality.

 

I have bought many books from a certain auction house, and while the grade of the book was dead on (or even a notch undergraded), the page quality is light tan to cream.

 

While this might not be as big an issue on GA books, it makes a HUGE difference on SA and newer books.

 

Just something to remember when buying RAW books from eBay, dealers, etc.

[Timely]

A cool surprise in the color gallery section was seeing some books pictured in the CGC holder. I wish they devoted more pages showing color pics.

 

Timely

[lou_fine]

A cool surprise in the color gallery section was seeing some books pictured in the CGC holder. I wish they devoted more pages showing color pics.

 

Timely

 

Timely;

 

Any opinions on the changes in this year's edition of the guide along with what appears to be a sizeable ramp-up in price? Good, bad, or indifferent?

 

Always good to get opinions from a diverse range of collectors.

[Timely]

A cool surprise in the color gallery section was seeing some books pictured in the CGC holder. I wish they devoted more pages showing color pics.

 

Timely

 

Timely;

 

Any opinions on the changes in this year's edition of the guide along with what appears to be a sizeable ramp-up in price? Good, bad, or indifferent?

 

Always good to get opinions from a diverse range of collectors.

 

I have not had enough time to look through it yet.

 

Timely

[Rob]

I agree with the decision to max the price estimations at 9.2. Because that's what they are, estimations of what you might expect to pay on any given day. Some days less, some days more. The OS guide in no way is stating, "This comic is worth $75 in 9.2. Not $74, not $76, only $75." It's not declaring a value, as much as providing a best guess at what it should cost (to avoid overpaying, as well as identifying a great deal).

 

With GA/SA/BA books, it becomes more difficult to predict what a 9.4 comic should sell for. We all know that CGC 9.4's were getting some multiple of NM guide (even if less than 2x). But raw 9.4's now sell for a premium, because people are taking CGC value into consideration. A 9.4 could range from less than NM guide, to 4x or more. How should OS price that?

 

I agree that the ceiling should be raised for modern books, but I'm sure they wanted to keep it consistent. My point is, last year's 9.4 pricing required some real-time tweaking to accurately reflect the market. So omitting it doesn't change much. You still need to base the 9.4 value on real-time data (GP Analysis), just like we did in previous years. I think by now, truly 9.4 raw comics should sell for pretty much the same amount as CGC 9.4's. I've seen raw 9.4's on eBay with huge pics sell for CGC amounts.

[BassGMan]

If the seller is a legitimate dealer with an impeccable reputation, I disagree (for example, if Jason Ewert, Metro, or Bob Storms ran a raw NM silver auction, I wouldn't think twice about bidding or paying top dollar). But for some no-name seller, I think the chances of the book being a scam are so high that I wouldn't personally bid on it.

 

 

I admit that I am unaware of the stats, but DO these guys sell multi-thousand dollar NM books raw? I can understand that you may trust a dealer who is as reputable and experienced as CGC to grade a book, but how often do these top dealers offer raw NM books valued at 5K or more? If they do then great, if they don't then it is a mute point. ----Sid

[FFB]

Metro and Bob Storms have tons of raw NM books on their websites.

 

If the seller is a legitimate dealer with an impeccable reputation, I disagree (for example, if Jason Ewert, Metro, or Bob Storms ran a raw NM silver auction, I wouldn't think twice about bidding or paying top dollar). But for some no-name seller, I think the chances of the book being a scam are so high that I wouldn't personally bid on it.

 

 

I admit that I am unaware of the stats, but DO these guys sell multi-thousand dollar NM books raw? I can understand that you may trust a dealer who is as reputable and experienced as CGC to grade a book, but how often do these top dealers offer raw NM books valued at 5K or more? If they do then great, if they don't then it is a mute point. ----Sid