Opinions on top census copies?

[mintcollector]

I decided to post this topic in the 'bronze age' section because I am hoping it may 'spur' debate, and two; because of the initial reasoning behind why I am asking this in the first place.

 

Several years ago, I remember seeing books like Tomb of Dracula #1, Swamp Thing #1, Iron Fist #1, and other 'key' issues from the bronze age selling for close to $3,000 each in CGC 9.8.. Luckily, I always knew better than to buy these books, as I wondered why anyone would pay ten times the cost of a Tomb of Dracula #1 CGC 9.4; for the same book in 9.8. Years later (i.e. now) that prices have somewhat stabilized, and a Tomb of Dracula #1 CGC 9.8 can be had for $1,500 (half price); I was wondering what the comic collecting community thought of buying the 'top pop' census copies of these books; or books like this in 9.8?

 

In conclusion, I remember reading what Josh; the founder of Comic Link paid for Wolverine Limtied Series #1 in CGC 10. Does anyone here actually believe that these books are viable for the prices being paid? Now that it has been proven that overall collecting 'top pop' census copies, is not always a wise investment, do some collectors, investors, and even speculators; still feel comfortable doing this?

 

 

[ft88]

Yes, but it depends on the book and other factors. But the history of comic prices shows that you buy key books at the highest grades and you'll make more money vs buying mid grade 2nd tier keys or non keys.

 

As that flowed true from Gold and Silver to Bronze and Copper, the supply started to really catch up to demad in the Bronze and Copper area whereas that didn't (and couldn't) happen with Gold and Silver. Even at those upper grade levels of 9.8.

 

So now that the bloom is off the BA rose, it becomes more comparative and the prices seem to be more sane. But I do think there are some exceptions. TMNT 1 has held up pretty well in the 9.0 and above range. 30 cent and 35 cent variants, have held up well also 9.0 and above.

 

But those common 1977 DC and Marvel #1's like Spiderwoman and Howard the Duck etc just fell off a cliff from some initial 9.8 collectors paying up to get a complete set. I don't see those prices coming back and supply will just keep going up. There have to be a number of 1970's speculators that are still sitting on multiple copies of these #1 issues. And that goes double for Wolverine LS and for that matter the copper #1's of Wolverine, Punisher, Crisis, etc. Plenty of supply there. Don't get me wrong, still very collectible with huge demand, but a 9.8 Wolverine LS 1 selling for $300 will never come back. But if you buy one for $90 I'd think you'd be pretty happy and might be able to sell it for $120 later on.

 

Come out with an Iron Fist 14 35 cent variant in 9.0 and you'll still get top dollar. TOD #10 or some of the other significant keys are probably in between and still have legs but I wouldn't buy at top GPA like you might need to with GA or SA on a great key book.

 

http://www.ebay.com/itm/Wolverine-1-CGC-9-8-NM-M-x10-1982-Miller-Limited-series-/330645374706?pt=US_Comic_Books&hash=item4cfc0006f2

 

http://www.ebay.com/itm/Wolverine-Limited-Series-1-2-3-and-4-Full-Set-all-CGC-9-8-White-Miller-/170739255262?pt=US_Comic_Books&hash=item27c0da47de

[jokersrevenge]

Joe Collector has said time and again, there are no bronze comics that are rare.. I'm starting to believe him. Not only that, I've modified my buying to reflect that philosophy... I only buy 9.8's, and then only when they are reasonable.

I had the one and only Batman 251 in cgc 9.8. Now there are 9 in 9.8.

The only exception so far is Batman 238. I suspect if people knew what it would go for in 9.8, they would dig thru their collections and sell....

[Ghost Town]

Joe Collector has said time and again, there are no bronze comics that are rare..

I think that's true, at least for mainstream superhero titles. But there are definitely hero books that, for whatever reasons, are much tougher to find in high grade when compared to books from the same title and same time frame. (Iron Man #44 is an example.)

 

However, if you're talking about books like My Love, Li'l Kids, Millie The Model, and some reprint titles, I do believe that high grade copies are truly scarce. Sure, there are probably some out there sitting unslabbed in collections. But nobody can convince me that high grade copies of My Love #14, Special Marvel Edition #4, and Chili #18 aren't rare in high grade.

[miraclemet]

Gotta assume with bronze age books that there are fewer slabbed by percentages vs the other older ages (translation: more raw copies) which means there are more high grade raw copies out there, which means assuming that the slabbed books stay slabbed that the census will only increase especially when it comes to books that have higher $$$ put to them.

 

Like GT said, there are some books that seem truely scarce in high grade, but again Im always SUPER hesitant to spend big on a "top census" book especially from an era where the odds of another one popping up and affecting your books value is the most likely.

[Brian48]

Unless the book is dirt cheap, I generally never buy top census copies. I learned my lesson a long time ago collecting graded baseball and other sports cards. I'm more of a 9.2/9.4 type of guy anyway, and I'm perfectly happy with something lower if the book presents well.

 

That said, I think I do have one "top" census book (a Brave/Bold #79 in 9.6). It shares the spot with like two or three others, but I think this is the only one with WP.

 

At the time I bought it, I don't think it's place in the census was a factor in the deal. Plus, because it's "only" a 9.6, I think people overlook it. 9.8 and above seems to be the sexy tier that most people associate with.

 

[mintcollector]

I agree with everyone. I could never understand, as stated, why anyone would belive that a comic book like Tomb of Dracula #1 CGC 9.8 is worth ten times in 9.8 as a 9.4 copy. That being said, the 9.4 copy is just as collectible and a good book to own I may add. However, buying a 9.8 and assuming it will be 'rare' and in demand; is just downright silly. I started collecting 'bronze', but I am now mostly engulfed in the silver age, as I work to accumulate the few remaining keys I actually want from the 'bronze' era. I can assure you that these are not top pop copies either...but still affordable (in my opinion) and highly collectible.

 

I could never grasp 'copper age' collecting. I have tried, but I have too many bad memories of speculators coming in and 'destroying' the hobby. Just looking at how many copies certain collectors have of one book is frightening to say the least. I am glad I never had to deal with that.

 

Kind Regards,

 

'mint'

[paperheart]

you should take this discussion into the modern forum where every book is a 9.8

[heliosten]

Joe Collector has said time and again, there are no bronze comics that are rare..

I think that's true, at least for mainstream superhero titles. But there are definitely hero books that, for whatever reasons, are much tougher to find in high grade when compared to books from the same title and same time frame. (Iron Man #44 is an example.)

 

However, if you're talking about books like My Love, Li'l Kids, Millie The Model, and some reprint titles, I do believe that high grade copies are truly scarce. Sure, there are probably some out there sitting unslabbed in collections. But nobody can convince me that high grade copies of My Love #14, Special Marvel Edition #4, and Chili #18 aren't rare in high grade.

 

Thank you Sir! There ARE rare Bronze Age books and you listed some great examples. Li'l Kids, Peter the Little Pest, Harvey, Homer the Happy Ghost, etc. just didn't have the print runs necessary for these books not to be rare in high grade. Add the fact that they were geared towards younger readers who just didn't take care of the books and you have rare. Trust me, I look for them on a daily basis.

 

Please, show me a Peter the Little Pest #1 in 9.8! Doesn't exist yet and only 1 in 9.6. NONE of the online dealers have one, never seen one at a show either. Hell, I'd like to find a raw copy better than 9.0! Been looking for 10 years...nada.

 

I'm not even including the DC books like Laurel & Hardy or some of the love books because that isn't my focus but there ARE rare Bronze books.

[mintcollector]

you should take this discussion into the modern forum where every book is a 9.8

 

No, 9.8 is the norm for moderns. Modern comics are a completely different topic; altogether in relation to the point I am raising. I am talking about collectors who assumed that pre CGC era comics (i.e. mostly 'bronze') would be good 'investments' by buying the top graded copy; at the time.

 

That being said, I am sure you could apply similar logic to those collectors who bought a CGC modern 10 thinking that they would have a true 'investment piece', only to learn that as years go by, more and more are readily available.

 

Personally though, I really can't comment on moderns or even copper age comics, because I do not collect them, nor do I plan to.

 

Does anyone actually believe that the prices Josh of Comic Link paid for the CGC 10 Wolverine Limited Series was a good investment? I honestly think this was done more out of publicity for Comic Link; then as an investment. This is just my opinion.

[Gatsby77]

I don't think any of the current Bronze "keys" are rare in high grade.

 

Best example of this are former darlings Green Lantern 76 and Hero For Hire # 1. 5 years ago the discussion was "will we ever see a 9.8?: Now it's "how many more 9.8s and at what lower price will the books finally stabilize?"

 

As above, the truly rare-in-high grade books are overlooked, non-superhero and generally non-key.

 

Examples include the DC Secret Hearts books that sold from the Savannah pedigree on Heritage last year. Going rate was $100 for a 9.4, $250 for a 9.6 and $400-$450 for a 9.8. I'd wager we will never see more than a dozen of these tough 70s books in 9.6 or above.

 

Then again even if rare--who is the audience? DC completionists and Romance collectors? Is that enough?

[sterlingcomics]

Bronze books in general are not scarce; earlier bronze and some isolated spots in mid 70s seems to be areas in which I'm still amazed on lack of supply. I suspect CGC's price increases and demand/worth for the book has limited copies appearing on the census.

 

Like Gatsby noted, there are "niches" that will continue to be relatively scarce - bronze Romance continues to be an exception to the rule.

 

In general paying top dollar for "top census" or "only in grade" is asking to lose money when more show up (once your sale becomes visible to GPA and folks rush to certify a copy).

 

IMO, the general rule for 8x 9.4 prices for a 9.8 is no longer valid except on a select case by case basis. I routinely pass on highest/top because the asking price isn't justified.

 

The 9.2 or less range is very stable from a price perspective. High grade is basically highly violatile. Based on the number of gift high grades these days I'd say 9.4 prices have even stabilized.

 

Many of the high prices in mid 2005 or so was at the peak of the "CGC craze" and imo folks with books with last sales of their books in this timeframe are going to be disappointed when reselling unless demand increases for your chosen book/genre.

 

My humble .02 based on real world experience.

[FlyingDonut]

Joe Collector has said time and again, there are no bronze comics that are rare..

I think that's true, at least for mainstream superhero titles. But there are definitely hero books that, for whatever reasons, are much tougher to find in high grade when compared to books from the same title and same time frame. (Iron Man #44 is an example.)

 

However, if you're talking about books like My Love, Li'l Kids, Millie The Model, and some reprint titles, I do believe that high grade copies are truly scarce. Sure, there are probably some out there sitting unslabbed in collections. But nobody can convince me that high grade copies of My Love #14, Special Marvel Edition #4, and Chili #18 aren't rare in high grade.

 

9.4-9.8 copies of those three books were all lost in the flood at my house in September 2011.

[Ghost Town]

Joe Collector has said time and again, there are no bronze comics that are rare..

I think that's true, at least for mainstream superhero titles. But there are definitely hero books that, for whatever reasons, are much tougher to find in high grade when compared to books from the same title and same time frame. (Iron Man #44 is an example.)

 

However, if you're talking about books like My Love, Li'l Kids, Millie The Model, and some reprint titles, I do believe that high grade copies are truly scarce. Sure, there are probably some out there sitting unslabbed in collections. But nobody can convince me that high grade copies of My Love #14, Special Marvel Edition #4, and Chili #18 aren't rare in high grade.

 

9.4-9.8 copies of those three books were all lost in the flood at my house in September 2011.

Ugh. What a bummer.

[Blind Owl]

Joe Collector has said time and again, there are no bronze comics that are rare..

 

 

There are no Silver age books that are rare either...

[ft88]

If you combine specific issues and condition, then there are rare books in all Ages. That's part of the question when buying HGC for otherwise common books. The ultra high grade like a 9.8 makes some common books quite rare with only one copy or less than 5 copies.

 

And that matters a great deal when it's tough to find books like the oddball titles or the 30/35 cent variants as well as high demand keys like a GL 76 or TOD 1.

 

So we can easily see a drift downward on HGC of a book like these latter two but what about books where you are unlikely to see numbers added to the census like a 9.8 variant or oddball title?

 

In general I simply see these types of books following (leading?) the overall direction of the comic marketplace as a whole. If prices start to go down these books will too, only more so.

[Blind Owl]

If you are talking "rare in grade" that's a different story completely.

 

If you are talking about how many copies that exist (regardless of grade), then there are NO rare SA or BA books period.

 

edit: I guess since this thread is "top census copies".....we are only talking about "high-grade" examples. The problem is there are probably hundreds of high-grade copies sitting in collections that have not been graded if they are from 1965 up.

I can't consider that as a "rare" book.

[conditionfreak]

I don't know what y'all are talking about. The are plenty of rare moderns, coppers, bronze and silver age books. Aren't there?

 

How about the books that there were only so many made (limited editions)? Like 1 of 100? Or 1 of 10?

 

How about Walking Dead #1. Is it relatively rare? Bone #1 in high grade?

 

How about books like The Maxx #2 black?

 

What about the Black Venom variant cover?

 

Is a Hulk 377 third print rare?

 

Is a comic book with a sketch on the cover by Stan Lee "rare".

 

Why does a TMNT #1 in high grade (or any grade), cost so darn much, if it is not rare?

 

How about recalled books? There are some that only a few known copies exist and they are often moderns.

 

I could go on and on. But in general, I agree that even in high grade, "most" books are not rare. But I guess a diffinition of "rare" is in order. Because until we have a clear diffintion of "rare" for comic books. We can not proceed accurately.

 

Does "rare" when referring to this hobby, mean if you want one today at any price, can you find it? Does rare mean less than ten copies to be found? Does rare mean that it might take you a year of looking for a copy, before you locate one? Does rare mean that you can not buy it for a hundred bucks? Does rare mean that you have requested Ebay to automatically notify you when one becomes listed, and it never has, for years? If there are 1,000 copies worldwide, is that rare?

 

Does "rare" mean, that you have to pay out the nose for one, IF you can find one?

 

Or does "rare" mean, good luck in finding one because I haven't in several years.

 

I am not even going to go into the hand made and stitched, limited edition, start up comic books that get given out at Cons and such.

[Blind Owl]

According to Overstreet "rare" means that 10 to 20 copies are estimated to exist.

[vane]

 

What about the Black Venom variant cover?

 

 

The White Venom variant cover (More like a mistake) is rarer.