TWD #2 or avengers #4

[Dr. Balls]

Walking Dead is an adult book and an adult TV show. It's already hitting the demographic. I wouldn't put faith in the rule of 25 for WD.

 

I agree.

 

I had this discussion with a TWD fan awhile back - pointing out that a few days after watching the 1st season Blu-ray with my wife and step children, none of them could remember the name of the main character. And they thoroughly enjoyed the show (especially my stepson) TWD, while entertaining and good, is not iconic. I know everyone wants to think that it is, but it just isn't. That doesn't mean it's not a good story. It's excellent. I see why people like it. I really enjoy the show. I'm not hatin'

 

But, I digress...

 

I remember when Preacher was very hot (not as hot as TWD because of lack of marketing/merchandising), but still - it was the hottest book around for quite some time. But, eventually - it just goes away. People move on to other things.

 

You can only do shambling zombie stories until A) the readers get bored with it or B) the creator gets bored with it. It's not a detraction against TWD. Good book, good show, but to say it's going to remain in-demand forever isn't realistic.

 

I would take a low grade Avengers 4 before I would take TWD #1 or any other book, because I can tell you that Avengers 4 was valuable 16 years ago when I had my shop, it's valuable today, and it will still be valuable 16 years from now.

[Gatsby77]

Huh...reading your sig line reminds of the early 1990's Valiant bubble. I had conversations with several Philly-area dealers who were okay with Harbinger 1 selling for $100 because they legitimately thought it would go to $250 within the next three years--something no comic had done (in inflation-adjusted terms) since GS X-Men 1 and X-Men 94.

 

The smart folks traded up for Silver Age. Still should.

 

Considering Harbinger 1 shot way past $250 in 9.8 I'm not sure you made your point.

 

Sorry to go all RMA on you, but No.

 

1) Harbinger 1 did not hit $250 "within 3 years" as my post noted was the conventional wisdom at the time.

 

2) One absolutely cannot compare 1993's "NM" to 2012's "9.8," as CGC did not exist in 1992-93 and grading standards were not as strict.

 

Most of the Harbinger 1s that were selling for $100-$130 per in 1993 would grade out today as 9.2/9.4s.

 

Recall that even otherwise structurally NM/M copies tend to have small bindery tears in the lower left-hand corner that knock it out of mint.

 

Hence the reason that only 15% of slabbed copies have hit 9.8 and for years there were only a handful on the census. That's _mad_ low for a modern book and is because of the printing defect.

 

For comparison, Harbinger 0's 9.8 hit rate is 40%; Harbinger 2's is 50%. Walking Dead 1's hit rate is 41%, with almost a 1% 9.9 hit rate on top of that.

 

As recently as 2009 there were fewer than two dozen copies of Harbinger # 1 in 9.8 out of 350+ submissions. Today, there are well under 100 blue label 9.8s.

 

And it's actually following a geometric curve: Harbinger 1 in 9.8 peaked in 2008 at $2,500. Today, with 5x as many 9.8s on the census, it sells for 20% as much.

[Solar]

I can't believe this thread was created, let alone the number of responses it's received.

[Lethal_Collector]

If you are really serious about which one to buy, simply wait a month or two and watch the value price drop on the WD #2. Where the SA Avengers #4 is nice and steady.

 

With all of the long standing Silver age titles ending and rebooting what will drive the collectibility? If the rule of 25 sticks then what will be more desireable in 25 years?

 

Forgive me, but what's the rule of 25 again? I'm interested to hear Jeff's dark side.

 

Jerome

[brendanb438]

I can't believe this thread was created, let alone the number of responses it's received.

 

I agree this thread is crazy. Everyone knows the money is in investing in all the Evil Ernie and Lady Death Chaos comics.

 

Those will be worth their weight in gold 25 years from now!

[Drakeprimeone]

If you are really serious about which one to buy, simply wait a month or two and watch the value price drop on the WD #2. Where the SA Avengers #4 is nice and steady.

 

With all of the long standing Silver age titles ending and rebooting what will drive the collectibility? If the rule of 25 sticks then what will be more desireable in 25 years?

 

Forgive me, but what's the rule of 25 again? I'm interested to hear Jeff's dark side.

 

Jerome

 

I am not sure if I read that correctly but you really think WD #2 prices will drop next month or the month after next?

 

I own a low grade Avengers 4 SS and I am 99% certain I could not get as much for it as I could if I had a 9.8 WD #2.

I will concede I cant predict WD value long term and it may drop off but as of right now I believe a High Grade WD2 trumps an Avengers 4 (if the grade is low enough) $ wise.

[Lethal_Collector]

That's absolutely what I'm saying. It shot up so fast so soon that by the time summer hits, a 9.8 will probably go for $400-$500 instead of nearly a grand.

 

But honestly, only time will tell, that's just my thoughts/predictions.

 

 

Jerome

[Gatsby77]

What? Like they were four months ago? That's _crazy_ talk!

[Drakeprimeone]

That's absolutely what I'm saying. It shot up so fast so soon that by the time summer hits, a 9.8 will probably go for $400-$500 instead of nearly a grand.

 

But honestly, only time will tell, that's just my thoughts/predictions.

 

 

Jerome

 

As long as the tv series exists and remains hot the books will remain hot. It may cool off and level off but I predict that it will always maintain a minimum value of atleast 2 or 300.

 

Even Avengers 4 is enjoying elevated prices due to the movie coming out, after the movie has come and gone even this book will return to normal value.

[Gatsby77]

90-day GPA shows that right now a 9.8 Walking Dead 2 is roughly equal to a 7.0 Avengers 4.

 

Given that choice, how many of you would legitimately pick the Walking Dead as in investment?

 

My take is both are in a bubble right now and will be able to be had more cheaply next summer, when the current TV hype re. Walking Dead and pre-Avengers movie hype have long passed.

 

So either is a fool's bet.

[NewEnglandGothic]

Ummm... Avengers #4.

 

Which reminds me. I have to get that Hallmark Keepsake ornament of the #4 issue.

 

Jerel,

My partner at work buys out 3 Hallmark stores every year after Christmas. She buys everything left! Thousands of ornaments over the past few years. I am betting she has some left...

She just gifted me about 8 of them a month ago including the old BSG Cylon!!!!

I can probably hook you up cheapie cheap

Jon ,

 

I just found one at the Milford Halmark, with a Hulk #181 too. I just bought the Cylon one, with a Jack Sparrow, Indiana Jones, Rudolf the Red-Nosed Reindeer... I an addict for these . I might have 50 now... right down to the wind up santa-snowman ornaments. I'm looking for last year's Mistletoe fairy and the Blue-Bell one too. Those chicks sell right out.

[synch]

90-day GPA shows that right now a 9.8 Walking Dead 2 is roughly equal to a 7.0 Avengers 4.

 

Given that choice, how many of you would legitimately pick the Walking Dead as in investment?

 

My take is both are in a bubble right now and will be able to be had more cheaply next summer, when the current TV hype re. Walking Dead and pre-Avengers movie hype have long passed.

 

So either is a fool's bet.

 

I've been wanting both for a long while now you are saying i should wait but what are the odds the prices just keep going up?..

[Solar]

90-day GPA shows that right now a 9.8 Walking Dead 2 is roughly equal to a 7.0 Avengers 4.

 

Given that choice, how many of you would legitimately pick the Walking Dead as in investment?

 

My take is both are in a bubble right now and will be able to be had more cheaply next summer, when the current TV hype re. Walking Dead and pre-Avengers movie hype have long passed.

 

So either is a fool's bet.

 

I've been wanting both for a long while now you are saying i should wait but what are the odds the prices just keep going up?..

 

Here's some free investment advice:

 

Wait until the Avengers movie has come and gone, then take all of the money you've saved for both books and buy:

 

- The nicest Avengers #4 you can afford

- A Walking Dead 'Days Gone Bye' TPB

[synch]

I'm not buying it to read it I'm buying it to fill a gap in my collection even though I had the series on order my lcs never got #2 in for some reason

 

[jjeanius]

You miss the point. His point is that buying WD #2 right now is not a good investment.

[synch]

Oh ok ...

 

[N/A]

Captain America has been around for over 70 years. He is iconic, and still relevant today. Walking Dead is less than 10 years old, and is peaking. How can WD possibly get more "hot" than it already is? The TV show will run its course, and the book will cool off. Captain America is Captain America. There is no comparison here.

 

It is not the right time to buy either book. WD will peak agin in the long term. I'm sure Captain America will also. I'm not so sure Avengers 4 being the 1st silver age appearance will continue in that fashion.

[N/A]

With all of the long standing Silver age titles ending and rebooting what will drive the collectibility? If the rule of 25 sticks then what will be more desireable in 25 years?

 

Captain America.

 

The rule of 25 originated from kids. Kids playing with toys and then 25 years later they have jobs & real money to spend on collectables recapturing their youth. (The 25 isn't set in stone, it's more about hitting the late 20's early 30's demographic recapturing their youth.) For example Star Wars, G.I. Joe and Transformer toys. It's why people expect another bump in TMNT #1 soon.

 

Walking Dead is an adult book and an adult TV show. It's already hitting the demographic. I wouldn't put faith in the rule of 25 for WD.

 

Captain America on the other hand and superheros in general are still on kids t-shirts, underwear, lunch boxes, cartoons, movies, video games, etc. Comics aren't as big with the kids in general, but kids do know who Spidey, Hulk, Batman, Supes, & Captain America are.

 

With the number of teenagers begging for 1st print WD's I will disagree about the rule of 25.

 

At some point Silver Age characters will become secondary. When will that be?

[N/A]

I can't believe this thread was created, let alone the number of responses it's received.

 

I'm sure you've seen worse.

[N/A]

90-day GPA shows that right now a 9.8 Walking Dead 2 is roughly equal to a 7.0 Avengers 4.

 

Given that choice, how many of you would legitimately pick the Walking Dead as in investment?

 

My take is both are in a bubble right now and will be able to be had more cheaply next summer, when the current TV hype re. Walking Dead and pre-Avengers movie hype have long passed.

 

So either is a fool's bet.

 

As a short term investment I completely agree. It's not the time to buy.