Time Frame For Crash?

[joe_collector]

I'm not referring to the more recent players... how about a Micky Mantle rookie... Hank Aaron... older cards that are clearly less plentiful carry much more value.

 

Okay, so Action #1 and Marvel Comics #1 will maintain their value, but what else?

[Foolkiller]

I still think FF #1, FF#12, AF #15, Amazing Spidey #1, Avengers #1 (currently a little undervalued), Showcase #4 (because it hasn't exploded the same way), Brave and the Bold 28, most DC GA mainstream books (again, because I don't think they've gotten overly inflated) and I'm sure there are others.

 

I'm not saying these books are going to skyrocket, but I don't see a dropoff for these... they are still relatively scarce in high grade and I believe will have continued demand for the forseeable future.

[Aman619]

guys...have fun

Im sitting this one out.

[Mushroom]

A crash is not an across the board event. Some hyperinflated books will have a major correction whereas other keys in HG will flatten or continue to rise. Even during stock market crashes blue chip companies continue to survive and grow.

 

Desirability of the book.....size of the market......number of books available........price etc all determine the volatility.

 

Now where are you JC. Almost half way through the year and know crash. Is it coming or not.

 

I definitely agree with this.

 

I don't. It's still a collectibles market. Collectibles, like it or not, are fad-based. See also: Beanie Babies, carnival glass, baseball cards...

 

I'm not saying that this dip will be the end, but comics are not the eternal cash cow that most people here want to believe they are.

 

Beanie Babies.................hmmm let's see now. Cultural icons, nope.....50 year history................hmmmm, nope, designed to be used and destroyed....hmmmm, nope. I see the comparison.

 

Carnival glass is still very big in Australia (and has been for the last 20 years) and is till on the rise.

 

I did not say comics were a cash cow.....I was just pointing out that crashes do not occur wholus, bolus across a complete market.

 

As stated in previous market crash threads......collectables such as turn of the century cigarette cards are actually increasing their market segment and subsequently prices are rising. Not bad for a collectable that has not been produced for 60 years.

 

There will always be a comic book market (as ephemera is one of the strongest historical markets). As to which books last the distance.....well that is a completely different story.

[Mushroom]

Now where are you JC. Almost half way through the year and no crash. Is it coming or not.

 

You know the funniest part?

 

You sappers will be up to your eyeballs in over-valued CGC slabs, your phone will be disconnected, you will either be evicted or foreclosed, you live in fear of repo men, the closest you'll get to a credit card is a commercial you saw at the bus station, but you'll laugh thinking that I was off on my prediction by a year or two.

 

Now that makes me smile.

 

Off by a year or two............geez JC, you shove it down our throats for a whole year (1993) and now you may be out by a year or two. Thank god you don't make your money out of project planning.

[Wally's Comics]

I think after a few years of Super Hero overexposure there will be a slight dip

but no crash, I mean ever if there was a crash that would be awesome because it would allow me to snag all the high dollar back issues that I always wanted.

 

But in all honesty I don't beleive a crash is coming -

just dip in about 5-7years when people are upto there

eyeballs in Super Hero movie maddness.

[TomG]

I'm not referring to the more recent players... how about a Micky Mantle rookie... Hank Aaron... older cards that are clearly less plentiful carry much more value.

 

I don't disagree about the cards you're referring to... those to me are the "modern comics" that I believe are certainly being inflated.

 

Believe me, I agree that we're due for a definite correction of many silver/bronze Marvels that have escalated to unrealistic prices, but for the forseeable future, I also believe that there will be books that will maintain and still rise in value.

 

I thought some recent sales of Baseball memorabilia might be of interest.

 

http://scoop.diamondgalleries.com/scoop_article.asp?ai=5107&si=123

 

http://scoop.diamondgalleries.com/scoop_article.asp?ai=5140&si=123

[FlyingDonut]

I'm not referring to the more recent players... how about a Micky Mantle rookie... Hank Aaron... older cards that are clearly less plentiful carry much more value.

 

Okay, so Action #1 and Marvel Comics #1 will maintain their value, but what else?

 

1. All pre-war hero books.

2. Comics featuring heroes that have moved into "iconic" status. Batman, Superman, Captain America yes. Fawcetts? No.

3. Absolutely over-the-top pre-code horror books.

4. Very early Silver Age books (pre-1965).

5. Mid-grade Silver Age (mainly because the price is so deflated now).

 

6. ALL unslabbed high grade books from all time periods.

 

The "crash" that we speak of with such hushed, reverent tones here, will apply to approximately 1% of the market. The rest of us will busily sell books away, the same way we have for the past 30 years, through times of economic crisis and international shock, happy as clams. Do I make insane money? No. Do I make steady, everyday easy money? Yes, and I plan to continue to do so for quite some time. I've said it before, and I'll say it again. Give me five grand. I'll give you eight grand back in six months. I get to keep everything I've made above eight grand. You can have your 3K. I'll be happy with my share.

[Illiterati-migration]

Beanie Babies.................hmmm let's see now. Cultural icons, nope.....50 year history................hmmmm, nope, designed to be used and destroyed....hmmmm, nope. I see the comparison.

 

Hmmm... put in for comparison purposes only... not direct correlation... Hmmm... you ignored baseball cards which were put in to demonstrate what can happen to something with history out the ying-yang. Convenient.

 

Carnival glass is still very big in Australia (and has been for the last 20 years) and is till on the rise.

 

There's a problem with that statement, and I'm betting that anyone in this hemisphere can guess what it is.

 

As stated in previous market crash threads......collectables such as turn of the century cigarette cards are actually increasing their market segment and subsequently prices are rising. Not bad for a collectable that has not been produced for 60 years.

 

Does this mean people should keep buying at the top of the bubble and then just hold on to the "investments" for 60 years?

[joe_collector]

I thought some recent sales of Baseball memorabilia might be of interest.

 

Let's not go there, as signed sports equipment, uniforms, game-worn/used items, etc. is THE biggest speculative environment in decades, and far worse than our little funny book emporium.

 

You want to lose money fast, go buy some of that crapola and sit on it.

[Mushroom]

Hmmm... put in for comparison purposes only... not direct correlation... Hmmm... you ignored baseball cards which were put in to demonstrate what can happen to something with history out the ying-yang. Convenient.

 

Already commented on by somebody else. Blue chip baseball cards still hold their value.

 

Carnival glass is still very big in Australia (and has been for the last 20 years) and is till on the rise.

 

There's a problem with that statement, and I'm betting that anyone in this hemisphere can guess what it is.

 

Damn....I forgot.....yours is the only market that counts in this world. Myopia like yours is one reason why US FAD markets exist in the first place.

 

 

As stated in previous market crash threads......collectables such as turn of the century cigarette cards are actually increasing their market segment and subsequently prices are rising. Not bad for a collectable that has not been produced for 60 years.

 

Does this mean people should keep buying at the top of the bubble and then just hold on to the "investments" for 60 years?

 

If you track cigarette card prices you will see that there has been a continual rise for decades.

[joe_collector]

If you track cigarette card prices you will see that there has been a continual rise for decades.

 

Tell that to Bruce McNall.

[Illiterati-migration]

 

Already commented on by somebody else. Blue chip baseball cards still hold their value.

 

The value of ONE "hot" player who WON'T be hot if someone ever gets a blood sample from him? That's what you're basing your argument on? Riiiiight.

 

Damn....I forgot.....yours is the only market that counts in this world.

 

I don't make the rules.

[joe_collector]

Here's the deal in a nutshell:

 

When you're in so deep that your mind does not allow the possibility of a market crash, then it's time to get out.

[FlyingDonut]

Here's the deal in a nutshell:

 

When you're in so deep that your mind does not allow the possibility of a market crash, then it's time to get out.

 

Here's the deal in a nutshell:

 

When you are so focused on being right that you ignore 99% of the marketplace to prove your point, you might want to rethink your views.

[jimm94]

Future predictions from my silver-centric perspective... Feel free to laugh with or at me!

 

I think the market segment most likely to see a correction within the next 12 months is ultra high grade (CGC 9.4 and up) non-key silver age books - i.e. the "average" issue of ASM, FF, etc... The obsession/attraction with best in census copies will diminish as more and more books are slabbed, and there will be fewer and fewer truly profitable short term flips in this category of comics. These are what I like to call "day trading" comics.

 

Key books in ultra high grades will continue to command multiples of guide and multiples between grades due to their relative scarity and importance in the comic lexicon. Nothing new here. Keys were like this well before the advent of CGC.

 

8.5 and below slabbed silver already sells for guide or less in many instances. It almost seems like some of these books are "tainted" and less desirable in the marketplace. I've seen some smokin' deals on books like this.

 

I think 9.0-9.2 CGC graded silver will continue to float somewhat above guide due to the security of resto check and knowing that a book is going to be in the ballpark of the collector's expectations from a grading standpoint.

 

Raw comics will keep selling for guide or less.

 

[delekkerste]

"Market crash? What, me worry?"

 

[Mushroom]

 

I don't make the rules.

 

Aaah but JC that's where the rub is. The US is not currently the strongest market for a lot of collectables. Let alone your economy.

 

As for cigarette cards....ignoring your myopia around american baseball...check the history of cricket, rugby, soccer cards and their continued growth. For that matter check VC hero sets (that's Victoria Cross) and other prominent war titles.

[Illiterati-migration]

 

I don't make the rules.

 

Aaah but JC that's where the rub is. The US is not currently the strongest market for a lot of collectables. Let alone your economy.

 

As for cigarette cards....ignoring your myopia around american baseball...check the history of cricket, rugby, soccer cards and their continued growth. For that matter check VC hero sets (that's Victoria Cross) and other prominent war titles.

 

Where are the publishers located? It's an North Ameri-centric hobby, bub.

[Mushroom]

Hey Khaos.....what percentage increase in the sales of US books do you think are flowing out of the US for the last 12 months?