The 'Thirty Year Rule': Agree of Disagree?

[mintcollector]

This is NOT to be confused with the 'controversial'; 'rule of twenty-five.'

 

While some may question why I am placing this in the 'bronze age' forum; I personally feel as this is the best place for this topic to reside. Most comics from within this time period are affected by the rule listed below; more so than any other 'age' (aside from 'copper' and 'modern').

 

That being said, the 'Rule of Thrity' directly states:

 

"For the first thirty years of anything's life; all of its value is speculative." Stated by Harry Rinker

 

I FULLY agree with this 'rule' and know that a lot of my fellow antique and collectibles dealers, investors, and collectors do as well. That being said, what are the thoughts from the collecting community as a whole?

 

This explains a lot of the speculative crazes of the past (i.e. Beanie Babies, sports cards, and 'modern' comic books). I like this 'rule' as this is well defined and proven; and covers a lot of the views that I have on certain collecting subjects and fields.

 

PS: If anyone would like a link to Harry Rinker's website where he writes about antiques and collectibles in general; please let me know. It is a MUST read and his articles are widely considered 'gospel' among dealers, investors, and collectors. I do not know if anyone on these forums has ever heard of his articles, but he has also written books on the subject of collecting.

 

Respectfully yours,

 

'mint'

[JesterSB]

I don't know if I agree or disagree, but if it's true then the safest/best time to get in on a collectible is about 30 years after it is produced. At that point, prices are probably solidified and the longer you wait, the more you will probably have to pay. Of course the absolute best time to get in is when the collectible is produced/released, but you take on MUCH more risk if it doesn't pan out (as most collectibles won't).

[Gatsby77]

Hmm...

 

1) Only person on this forum whom I've seen call the Rule of 25 (with regard to comic books) "controversial" is you.

 

2) All comic books are inherently speculative--as they are designed as pop entertainment, there's little inherent value. And I can just easily speculate by pouring my money into Iron Man 55 or Hulk 1 as I could putting that money buy up some Golden Age Popeye appearances on the strength of his new IDW series.

 

3) That said, I disagree with the above (with regard to comic books) because mega keys that are identified in the first ten years tend to sustain. Examples include Giant Size X-Men # 1 and X-Men 94. Each took 7 years to officially break $100 in value and each has continued to be considered "key" and valuable (vs. other issues in the time period) since.

 

ASM 300 is another example. It's value went from $1.50 to $7.50 within months, then to $15 within a year or two. With the exception of a slump to $30 in the late 1990s, it's pretty much been a $90-$110 book raw ever since.

 

With comic books, I could see waiting 8 years or so to see what endures, to ensure you don't spend big money on passing fads like Fish Police, Gen 13, Harbinger 1 or even Preacher 1, but to say they're not legitimate long-term investments until 30 years old is folly.

 

Extended even further, I'd much rather have "speculated" on Amazing Fantasy 15 and Fantastic Four 1 in the early 80s rather wait until the early 90s when they finally passed the 30 year mark and stopped being "speculative."

 

[mintcollector]

BEFORE I respond to individual comments, this is the 'link' (as I have been asked repeatedly for); to Harry Rinker's website. The link I provided links right to his columns, but feel free to explore his site. Note there is an emphasis on ALL antiques and collectibles on this site. Please understand this.

 

http://www.harryrinker.com/columns.html

 

I will let other individuals take time to respond.

 

Note: Feel free to comment on other collecdting fields as well.

 

Respectfully,

 

'mint'

[conditionfreak]

I don't hold to any rules in this hobby. The hobby is fickle. People are fickle. Collectors of collectables are really really fickle. The members of this web site are doubley doubley super duper big rag time fickley fickle.

 

The only rule in this hobby, is that "screw someone over, and it is never forgotten". It is worse than crossing a picket line.

[maraxusofkeld]

I think it depends on what type of collectibles. As an example, G1 Transformers, Vintage Star Wars, and 80's Joes have or will be hititng the 30 year mark soon. Most of them have been quite collectible for awhile, but I do not really see any increased demand or jump in value. Most loose complete Vintage Star Wars prices have been relatively the same for the last ten years, with the exception of the uber rare pieces.

[Define999]

I think maybe this held true in the past…. but I think with new technologies and the extreme pressure of instantly accessible information to inform collectors (of any hobby) will have a profound effect on perceived value. Maybe the items of worth are being “wiggled” out much sooner? So much easier now to speculate or on the flipside even follow trends nobody notices…..

 

Speculation will always exist for collectables of all ages but technology and its immediate affect on culture might be re-writing all the rules of collectables in general.

 

Maybe the speculative bubbles are growing faster and then popping sooner? Maybe with the rise of niche culture brought on by the info age we will see a change in collecting as we know it?

 

Personally I think the pressure of technology pushing down on culture and molding it faster than it has ever been molded in human history means all old bets are off. Basic common sense stuff, sure makes sense….. but complex strict 30/25/ whatever year rules…… I just don’t see them applying in 30 or 20 years?

 

 

 

[gyro-1]

My father has a saying that nothing his dad bought as a young person was worth anything till after his father died (a lot of old furnature and stuff )

So that comes in at 40 years ?

I just spent $1000 on fixing up my grandfathers 60 year old gold rolex and its now worth $1001

I think value is subjective ?

 

[ComicConnoisseur]

You got to look at inflation as well to figure in value.

An example is gold at 1540.30 oz today is actually worth less then when gold was worth $850 an oz in 1980.

 

[Fazybones]

I don't hold to any rules in this hobby. The hobby is fickle. People are fickle. Collectors of collectables are really really fickle. The members of this web site are doubley doubley super duper big rag time fickley fickle.

 

The only rule in this hobby, is that "screw someone over, and it is never forgotten". It is worse than crossing a picket line.

 

 

DELETED.

 

Sorry for de-railing the thread with my pathetic rant.

[Dr. Balls]

I think one of the important components to speculation is being overlooked here. We're talking about comic book characters driving the value of a book - and the amount of exposure, quality of writing and potential for longevity are huge factors that steer what people want and what they are willing to pay.

 

If I recall, GSX 1, Hulk 181 and ASM 129 were all regarded as keys within a decade of them coming out because they were all characters that had proven to have all the factors to make them popular. So in that case, it wasn't speculative - the market for those books was established, and continued on.

 

I don't agree with a Thirty Year Rule. I don't agree with any rules to speculating, because they are so easily broken.

[ComicConnoisseur]

I don't hold to any rules in this hobby. The hobby is fickle. People are fickle. Collectors of collectables are really really fickle. The members of this web site are doubley doubley super duper big rag time fickley fickle.

 

The only rule in this hobby, is that "screw someone over, and it is never forgotten". It is worse than crossing a picket line.

 

 

DELETED.

 

Sorry for de-railing the thread with my pathetic rant.

It was a good rant!

pm me if your ever want to talk funny books! (thumbs u

[mintcollector]

I think it depends on what type of collectibles. As an example, G1 Transformers, Vintage Star Wars, and 80's Joes have or will be hititng the 30 year mark soon. Most of them have been quite collectible for awhile, but I do not really see any increased demand or jump in value. Most loose complete Vintage Star Wars prices have been relatively the same for the last ten years, with the exception of the uber rare pieces.

 

This is mostly true. The reason I do not per take in the 'ideology of 25' is due to the fact that are literally hundreds of once popular toys, games, and other pop culture collectibles that never increased in value over the years. Even more make the list when you factor in inflation. Some examples include a lot of once popular 80's toys (Mad Balls anyone?).

 

Every dealer like myself, in the antique and collectibles market will gladly admit that when people get older, nostalgia becomes common and collectors long for the past. That being said, prior to being mentioned on these forums many years ago, I can find nothing in print to establish a valid 'rule of 25' as worded directly as such and dated before first appearing here.

 

I have however, as shown, found the 'rule of 30.'

 

Respectfully,

 

'mint'

[joe_collector]

This is mostly true. The reason I do not per take in the 'ideology of 25' is due to the fact that are literally hundreds of once popular toys, games, and other pop culture collectibles that never increased in value over the years.

 

I'd *love* to see a list of those wildly-popular toys/comics/pop culture items from "when kids were king" (i.e pre-mid-80's) as it would probably be a pretty short one.

 

What people seem to forget is that by the mid-80's, adults had almost fully appropriated the comic, card, toy, game, etc. "hobbies", and had fully taken over by the 90's. That takes the Rule of 25/30 and craps all over it.

[the blob]

"....ASM 129 were all regarded as keys within a decade of them coming out"

 

Took a little longer than that with Punisher, though I do not know why. and I do not know why I was not actively hoarding 129s when I was 12 as he was one of my most favorite characters.

[joe_collector]

"....ASM 129 were all regarded as keys within a decade of them coming out"

 

Took a little longer than that with Punisher, though I do not know why.

 

The Punisher blew up due to the Limited Series in 1986.

 

Fun Fact: The Punisher LS #1 was initially worth more in OS than ASM 129.

[mintcollector]

This is mostly true. The reason I do not per take in the 'ideology of 25' is due to the fact that are literally hundreds of once popular toys, games, and other pop culture collectibles that never increased in value over the years.

 

I'd *love* to see a list of those wildly-popular toys/comics/pop culture items from "when kids were king" (i.e pre-mid-80's) as it would probably be a pretty short one.

 

What people seem to forget is that by the mid-80's, adults had almost fully appropriated the comic, card, toy, game, etc. "hobbies", and had fully taken over by the 90's. That takes the Rule of 25/30 and craps all over it.

 

I don't know how many of my other posts you have ever read, but you are aware I tend to agree more with you then the speculator side of things. That being said, I do not think comic books and other related items are going to suddenly become worthless in 'X' number of years. Cherished and time proven ones that is. I believe in market corrections, not crashes. As a dealer, lover, and investor of antiques and collectibles, I can tell you I have heard everything from 'Hulk 180' is undervalued and will be worth $10,000 soon to no one is going to want this drek ten years from now. Neither of these statements are accurate. The truth lies somewhere in between.

 

As for the list you requested (see above where you posted); here are some items to get you started: Mad Balls, immensely popular, warehouse fodder now, even new!

 

M.U.S.C.L.E. Men. Remember these? Very popular. Factor in inflation and they are almost worthless.

 

Monsters in my Pocket. A brief specuator craze in te late 90's drove prices up, but my 2002 no one wanted these toys that were actually from the late 80's to early 90's. Possibly considered a 90's toy.

 

I can go one, only 97 more to go...

 

Kind Regards,

 

'mint'

[mintcollector]

By the way, the reason I call the supposed 'rule of 25'; the 'ideology of 25' is because I don't believe it either. The 'rule of 30' is NOT my idea, but it was created by someone I highly respect as noted.

 

Respectfully,

 

'mint'

[joe_collector]

As for the list you requested (see above where you posted); here are some items to get you started: Mad Balls, immensely popular, warehouse fodder now, even new!

 

M.U.S.C.L.E. Men. Remember these? Very popular. Factor in inflation and they are almost worthless.

 

Monsters in my Pocket. A brief specuator craze in te late 90's drove prices up, but my 2002 no one wanted these toys that were actually from the late 80's to early 90's. Possibly considered a 90's toy.

 

Still waiting...

 

I'd *love* to see a list of those wildly-popular toys/comics/pop culture items from "when kids were king" (i.e pre-mid-80's) as it would probably be a pretty short one.

 

After about 1985, there are no more "kid's toys/games/comics/cards/etc." as adults took over, and had almost entire control in the 90's. I knew people that bought action figures, toys, etc. by the CASE in the late-80's and 90's, hoping to "cash in" on the supposed speculative value and "kid nostalgia" later on.. too bad it was all adults buying it.

 

If you want Rule of 25 examples, look to something like videogames, which kids actually bought and played in the 80's and 90's.

[joe_collector]

By the way, the reason I call the supposed 'rule of 25'; the 'ideology of 25' is because I don't believe it either. The 'rule of 30' is NOT my idea, but it was created by someone I highly respect as noted.

 

Did you even read the article in question?

 

He's stating a really basic factor of any collectible field - that after 30 years we will all have a better idea of an item's value going forward than we did in the preceding years.

 

Well DUH! And grass is green and the sky is blue.