The 'fallacy' of the supposed 'rule of 25.'

[ComicConnoisseur]

I'm honestly surprised that of person of Harry Rinker's status is giving credence to the Rule of 25.

 

It's a little like discussing the Curse of 27 Club. These "rules" or "curses" are created from crazy, goofy ideas that are sprung from over-active imaginations and an inability to accept random experiences in life that don't fit into factual explanations.

 

And I would agree. That being said, a lot of these supposed 'rules' start on a forum or message board and before you know it everyone thinks they are 'gospel.' He addresses a lot of great issues on his website and in various other articles as well.

 

I won't rehash what he wrote in this particular article, but a lot of my earlier posts mirror these points exactly. It is truly 'spot' on.

 

I would encourage anyone who has yet to do so to check out his website. While some of the articles can be about specific antiques, most do have solid principles that can be applied to any collecting field (his books also touch on these topics as well). That being said, when I started learning the business many years ago, my mentors indroduced me to his ideologies as being 'gospel.' Most of these principles have been 'drilled' into my head and I can honestly say that this has helped give me the 'edge' I need.

 

Check out his latest articles on his website that deal with collecting categories that are 'dying off' and the article on the changes in the industry. It is truly astounding.

 

Respectfully,

 

'mint'

I will check it out,but I would caution that

comic books are unique, and may not fit in with the rest of the antique crowd.So the rules that apply in the majority of those fields might not apply here. We got something special going on here. What other hobby can boast billion dollar movies being made? Not many. (thumbs u

[500Club]

Ok I'll step into this one. I'm on the fence about the "rule". The problem as I see it is that the criticism of the rule amounts to a straw man argument because i don't see any proponents of the rule arguing from a well thought out position. Most proponents speak from anacdotal evidence and allow their opponents to frame the debate. When detractors of the rule speak they define the rule as - "if something was popular then 25 years later it will be popular in collectable circles.". However, I have never heard proponents of the rule define it this way (and for good reason because this position is full of holes). If that is in fact the rule then I agree with the detractors. However if the rule is this - "Generally, the value of a collectable will peak approximately 25 years after its peak popularity unless it becomes ingrained in collectable culture" then I think I could get on board.

I am with you. I've always thought of the rule of 25 in a retrospective way, and not a forward-looking thesis stating 'if item X is popular now, it will be collectible in 25 years'. I've also never thought of it as a 'rule' per se, rather seeing it as a common characteristic of many collectible items.

 

The article is a well worded argument as to why the rule of 25 cannot be universally applied to popular properties, though.

[mintcollector]

I'm honestly surprised that of person of Harry Rinker's status is giving credence to the Rule of 25.

 

It's a little like discussing the Curse of 27 Club. These "rules" or "curses" are created from crazy, goofy ideas that are sprung from over-active imaginations and an inability to accept random experiences in life that don't fit into factual explanations.

 

And I would agree. That being said, a lot of these supposed 'rules' start on a forum or message board and before you know it everyone thinks they are 'gospel.' He addresses a lot of great issues on his website and in various other articles as well.

 

I won't rehash what he wrote in this particular article, but a lot of my earlier posts mirror these points exactly. It is truly 'spot' on.

 

I would encourage anyone who has yet to do so to check out his website. While some of the articles can be about specific antiques, most do have solid principles that can be applied to any collecting field (his books also touch on these topics as well). That being said, when I started learning the business many years ago, my mentors indroduced me to his ideologies as being 'gospel.' Most of these principles have been 'drilled' into my head and I can honestly say that this has helped give me the 'edge' I need.

 

Check out his latest articles on his website that deal with collecting categories that are 'dying off' and the article on the changes in the industry. It is truly astounding.

 

Respectfully,

 

'mint'

I will check it out,but I would caution that

comic books are unique, and may not fit in with the rest of the antique crowd.So the rules that apply in the majority of those fields might not apply here. We got something special going on here. What other hobby can boast billion dollar movies being made? Not many. (thumbs u

 

Unfortunately, this is where we differ. I have heard the same argument being said from anything from Lego Star Wars to action figures to Pez dispensers to video games to sports cards. There will always be billion dollar properties tied to a multitude of things. If anything, that just proves possible over saturation and massive production runs; especially in today's market where the principle of 'economies of scale' is hard at work.

 

Some of the author's other articles do discuss the current comic book 'frenzy' to a certain degree and how it cannot last. There are no articles to my knowledge, solely on the comic book market.

 

There are however, a lot of great articles on that site. While some may not peak the average comic book collector's interest, the principles are the same.

 

Edited to add: Let me know what you think of some of the articles. Also, if you get a chance, I highly recommend his books!

 

 

[shrunkenhead]

"And you can make a million dollars, without fail, if you just create lots and lots of tiny, tiny ads..."

 

 

 

[mintcollector]

"And you can make a million dollars, without fail, if you just create lots and lots of tiny, tiny ads..."

 

 

 

 

??

 

I am not affiliated in any way with the author. I just feel as though if you are going to continue to 'take' information that is being supplied from someone (an expert in their chosen field) for FREE; you should also read their books to understand the principles behind the philosophies; and show respect by paying for some of their work.

 

Ironically, I have as of yet, to write a book on antiques and collectibles. I myself however, also write some articles, guides, etc. and they are available for free viewing; as some have been published. Others have been unfortunately, 'copied' by those looking to make a 'fast buck.' I make my money in the antiques and collectibles field by buying and selling (plain and simple). I also have a career in business. That being said, I have slowly been working on a book and have been asked many times to write one on antiques and collectibles. Whether or not it actually comes to fruitation with my hectic schedule is anyone's guess.

 

PS: Whatever happened to the guy in your picture (Don Lepree?) He was everywhere in the early to mid 1990's; then disappeared. I remember his infomercials with Cindy Margolis...

 

Respectfully,

 

'mint'

[shrunkenhead]

He committed suicide when the Feds caught up with him.

[mintcollector]

He committed suicide when the Feds caught up with him.

 

Seriously? I had no idea...

 

Kind Regards,

 

'mint'

[mintcollector]

BUMPED...

 

 

[Hamlet]

I think that you might be overstating this a bit. Everyone doesn't save everything-- if we did, we would all be on hoarders. Most people periodically purge stuff, sending it to a dumpster or Goodwill. The things that most people didn't consider worth saving could potentially have collectable value, if interest in those items ever develops.

 

I'm starting to reach an age where the nostalgia for the things I grew up with is creating a pull to re-aquire those items. I am likely to be entering my peak earnings years as well, so if any of those items are hard to come by, I may potentially be willing to pay "collectable" prices for them. I think that this is the basic theory behind the "rule of 25".

 

I agree with you that very few of these items will actually get expensive, because most of them are still relatively easy to find. However, some of them were either not produced in large numbers originally, or were not widely saved in nice condition.

 

For example, I have toyed with the idea collecting the original AD&D books and modules from when I was in high school. None of them is going to be rare, but if condition becomes important, it may be fairly tough to get some of the less common modules in real nice shape. Some items that were limited at the time may be expensive, like the Deities and Demigods book that was pulled out of production because TSR got sued by the owners of some copyrighted material. That book may have some actual collectable value (although I wouldn't count on it ever increasing).

 

Early Magic cards were played with, so if you want ones without wear, they are going to be harder to find. As the game grew in popularity, they started making plastic covers for them, so after a certain point wear will not be a big issue. The early pool of players was tiny compared to the pool today, so someone who wants the power cards from the early sets will have to spend fairly substantial money to aquire them.

 

 

 

The problem I have with a position like this (and the article explains this perfectly) is that after 1980 we became a 'collector conscious' culture and almost everything was saved. This is even further confirmed by the speculator crazes of the 1990's affecting both comic books and sports cards. Everyone saved everything and still does, while manufacturer's happy to appease the newfound buyer's (i.e. economies of scale at work) continue to make more and more of the 'said' items.

[sterlingcomics]

I do think there's a place for general rules of thumb such as this, but I also must concede that "knowing" what will be popular vs what will not be, in addition to the general state of the economy at some point in the future is a fool's bet--although all of the geniuses of the world will try, show us projections, graphs, etc.

 

For me, it's about the enjoyment of the hobby and think all of this discussion is nice for those that want to pursue it. So, do we need an investment section on the boards or not?

[Tony S]

There never was - really - a rule of 25 or 30. Barry Smith's Conan issues were collectible a month after they came out. So too was GS X-Men 1, X-Men 94, ASM 129, Hulk 181, ect.

 

Never a rule - it was more an observation of COLLECTORS - not COLLECTIBLES. That observation being that 1) (mostly) men as they grow older get nostalgic for the stuff that in their youth that gave them pleasure and 2) They have more money to pursue those items.

 

The challenged "rule" is just an observation. Kids collect stuff too. But as they get older and wax nostalgic, people will sometimes re-enter a hobby with more zeal and lots more money.

 

Well written or not, tearing down a non existent rule is pointless.

 

 

[mintcollector]

http://www.worthpoint.com/blog-entry/rinker-collectibles-myth-guaranteed-collectible

 

This article does talk about comic books in the last few paragraphs and is well worth reading. I also cannot recoomend enough visiting both the author's website and getting a subscription to WorthPoint. Both resources are a MUST for anyone in any aspect of the antiques and collectibles marketplace.

 

I will let the above article explain myself. I have argued these points to the death, even bringing in expert testimony from some of the best experts on the subject. It truly is pointless to argue it any further.

 

You are welcome to read this; but ironically, I am sure some will now argue this article.

 

I want to say two quick points on this subject.

 

Number one, (and I have said this many times before); the easiest way to create wealth in a capitalistic society is to 'invest in what you know.' Speculation; as wonderfully said in the movie Wall Street 2; 'is the mother of all evils.'

 

Number two: I do not doubt that certain individuals truly believe that some of the items they are buying have 'investment' potential. That being said, there are indivudals who will argue to the 'death' in an attempt to convince people that the items they have are great 'investments'; will only go up in value, and are the next 'big' thing. The best advice I can give you is to NOT buy into the hype and ask yourself what the item is and analyze it from there.

 

If anyone would like, I would be more than happy to provide a checklist as to what I look for before I spend my cash on an item of possible investment potential. It is the same checklist most experts use and takes a common sense approach to analyzing the long term validity of an item; WITHOUT the use of emotions. This is very valuable information. Most people buy items out of emotion; not common sense, then try to convince themselves it is an 'investment.' This is a 'fool's game.'

 

I have encountered people in my career and on this forum who will resort to name calling, foul language, and total disrespect; all because an individual states in a respectful manner; that a certain item may not be the best item to place your money in. If you are buying to collect something and have the cash (and like the item), by all means do not let anyone tell you NOT to buy it! However, the minute the term 'investment' comes up; now you are dealing with a whole new set of guidelines.

 

In conclusion, I truly believe all great items will eventually find a home; but it may not be at a price point some have all hoped it would be.

 

Respectfully yours,

 

'mint'

[Underground44]

Very helpful post Mint..

[Tony S]

http://www.worthpoint.com/blog-entry/rinker-collectibles-myth-guaranteed-collectible

 

This article does talk about comic books in the last few paragraphs and is well worth reading. I also cannot recoomend enough visiting both the author's website and getting a subscription to WorthPoint. Both resources are a MUST for anyone in any aspect of the antiques and collectibles marketplace.

 

I will let the above article explain myself. I have argued these points to the death, even bringing in expert testimony from some of the best experts on the subject. It truly is pointless to argue it any further.

 

You are welcome to read this; but ironically, I am sure some will now argue this article.

 

I want to say two quick points on this subject.

 

Number one, (and I have said this many times before); the easiest way to create wealth in a capitalistic society is to 'invest in what you know.' Speculation; as wonderfully said in the movie Wall Street 2; 'is the mother of all evils.'

 

Number two: I do not doubt that certain individuals truly believe that some of the items they are buying have 'investment' potential. That being said, there are indivudals who will argue to the 'death' in an attempt to convince people that the items they have are great 'investments'; will only go up in value, and are the next 'big' thing. The best advice I can give you is to NOT buy into the hype and ask yourself what the item is and analyze it from there.

 

If anyone would like, I would be more than happy to provide a checklist as to what I look for before I spend my cash on an item of possible investment potential. It is the same checklist most experts use and takes a common sense approach to analyzing the long term validity of an item; WITHOUT the use of emotions. This is very valuable information. Most people buy items out of emotion; not common sense, then try to convince themselves it is an 'investment.' This is a 'fool's game.'

 

I have encountered people in my career and on this forum who will resort to name calling, foul language, and total disrespect; all because an individual states in a respectful manner; that a certain item may not be the best item to place your money in. If you are buying to collect something and have the cash (and like the item), by all means do not let anyone tell you NOT to buy it! However, the minute the term 'investment' comes up; now you are dealing with a whole new set of guidelines.

 

In conclusion, I truly believe all great items will eventually find a home; but it may not be at a price point some have all hoped it would be.

 

Respectfully yours,

 

'mint'

 

There isn't anything to argue because Rinker doesn't say anything that isn't either common sense or a widely held opinion. At least not in these circles. No one here is likely to be buying the stuff he dishes dirt on. The only beanie babies in my house are the ones that came with my daughters happy meals decades ago. They were essentially free. Maybe you misjudge your audience, people on these boards collect (mostly) old, valuable comics and original art.

 

I'm reminded of one my political science instructors saying that politicians like to sound wise by stating with great passion and oratory commonly held beliefs. Mr. Rinker should run for office.

 

Finally, what is the point of collecting comics "devoid of any emotion"? I like a wide enough variety of comics that I can purchase books thinking both emotionally and keeping an eye on likely future interest. For instance: I like the Teen Titans. A nice VF copy of their first app in B&B 54 would cost maybe $500. But as a collector thinking about future value, I'd rather pay $2K for a NM copy. There might be better investments. Or this could turn to be a really, really good investment if DC does a Teen Titans movie. Which has been talked about off and on for years. Regardless, there aren't many copies in 9.4 or better (I think 14 or 15) so the book is likely to appreciate decently regardless. And I get to own a really nice copy of something I like.

 

So you can collect and invest at the same time. Like all of life, it is a balance.

[mintcollector]

http://www.worthpoint.com/blog-entry/rinker-collectibles-myth-guaranteed-collectible

 

This article does talk about comic books in the last few paragraphs and is well worth reading. I also cannot recoomend enough visiting both the author's website and getting a subscription to WorthPoint. Both resources are a MUST for anyone in any aspect of the antiques and collectibles marketplace.

 

I will let the above article explain myself. I have argued these points to the death, even bringing in expert testimony from some of the best experts on the subject. It truly is pointless to argue it any further.

 

You are welcome to read this; but ironically, I am sure some will now argue this article.

 

I want to say two quick points on this subject.

 

Number one, (and I have said this many times before); the easiest way to create wealth in a capitalistic society is to 'invest in what you know.' Speculation; as wonderfully said in the movie Wall Street 2; 'is the mother of all evils.'

 

Number two: I do not doubt that certain individuals truly believe that some of the items they are buying have 'investment' potential. That being said, there are indivudals who will argue to the 'death' in an attempt to convince people that the items they have are great 'investments'; will only go up in value, and are the next 'big' thing. The best advice I can give you is to NOT buy into the hype and ask yourself what the item is and analyze it from there.

 

If anyone would like, I would be more than happy to provide a checklist as to what I look for before I spend my cash on an item of possible investment potential. It is the same checklist most experts use and takes a common sense approach to analyzing the long term validity of an item; WITHOUT the use of emotions. This is very valuable information. Most people buy items out of emotion; not common sense, then try to convince themselves it is an 'investment.' This is a 'fool's game.'

 

I have encountered people in my career and on this forum who will resort to name calling, foul language, and total disrespect; all because an individual states in a respectful manner; that a certain item may not be the best item to place your money in. If you are buying to collect something and have the cash (and like the item), by all means do not let anyone tell you NOT to buy it! However, the minute the term 'investment' comes up; now you are dealing with a whole new set of guidelines.

 

In conclusion, I truly believe all great items will eventually find a home; but it may not be at a price point some have all hoped it would be.

 

Respectfully yours,

 

'mint'

 

There isn't anything to argue because Rinker doesn't say anything that isn't either common sense or a widely held opinion. At least not in these circles. No one here is likely to be buying the stuff he dishes dirt on. The only beanie babies in my house are the ones that came with my daughters happy meals decades ago. They were essentially free. Maybe you misjudge your audience, people on these boards collect (mostly) old, valuable comics and original art.

 

I'm reminded of one my political science instructors saying that politicians like to sound wise by stating with great passion and oratory commonly held beliefs. Mr. Rinker should run for office.

 

Finally, what is the point of collecting comics "devoid of any emotion"? I like a wide enough variety of comics that I can purchase books thinking both emotionally and keeping an eye on likely future interest. For instance: I like the Teen Titans. A nice VF copy of their first app in B&B 54 would cost maybe $500. But as a collector thinking about future value, I'd rather pay $2K for a NM copy. There might be better investments. Or this could turn to be a really, really good investment if DC does a Teen Titans movie. Which has been talked about off and on for years. Regardless, there aren't many copies in 9.4 or better (I think 14 or 15) so the book is likely to appreciate decently regardless. And I get to own a really nice copy of something I like.

 

So you can collect and invest at the same time. Like all of life, it is a balance.

 

I really wish you the best of luck. I answered your post in my original thread and stand by it.

 

Are you attempting to argue with me; or convince yourself?

 

I told you my answer; many threads ago. It hasn't changed...

[Gatsby77]

This is a comic book message board, populated by some of the most sophisticated comic collectors (as well as investors and speculators) in the (comic collecting) field.

 

They have observed the "rule of 25" as pertains to shifting nostalgic tastes and peak earning power of comic collectors. And a strong majority of them have been collecting and/or dealing comic books (as in, professionally--fort their livelihood) for longer than 25 years themselves.

 

You, by your own admission, have started in on Bronze Age comic books only recently. So I would submit that the folks here know what they're talking about, with regard to comic books.

 

I don't know mess from with regard to 99 percent of antiques, but I do know a bit about comic books, and I'm a lightweight compared to most on these boards.

 

But Tony S. is correct: a) you misjudge your audience; and b) your attempts to discredit the observed "rule of 25" is setting up a straw man argument.

 

Regardless--I'm curious: One of the recent examples of the comic world's "Rule of 25" was the significant increase in popularity and value of TMNT # 1 from 2004-2010.

 

Given that you've said you don't really invest in Copper Age books, and are (thus far) loathe to spend more than $2,000 on a single comic, do you think TMNT # 1 is a solid investment right now, in 9.2, at current GPA prices? ($2,700)

 

About as blue-chip as you can get, given that TMNT accomplished that rare feat of breaking out of comics to become a pop culture phenomenon, and that the kids who grew up on the movie and cartoon are now reaching their peak earning years.

 

In 9.6, the book's tripled in value since 2003 (that's what? 13% annually?); in 9.2, it's up 60 percent (5% annually--still better than bank rates).

 

Given that it's also arguably the most significant book of the last 30 years, what are your thoughts?

[Tony S]

I really wish you the best of luck. I answered your post in my original thread and stand by it.

 

Are you attempting to argue with me; or convince yourself?

 

I told you my answer; many threads ago. It hasn't changed...

 

I'm not arguing any point with you - accept perhaps one. I don't find Mr. Rinker's articles all that enlightening. Apparently you do.

 

I'm not even sure what you think I might be trying to convince myself of? I'm convinced I didn't learn anything from the articles by Rinker you posted up. I'm convinced I know what I like to collect and that most things I've spent much money on will be decent investments as well. I base that not on an irrational attachment to the items or a gut feeling, but rather past performance and known interest of other collectors.

 

You say you "I told you my answer, many threads ago?" I only asked one question - which was "what is the point of collecting comics devoid of any emotion". Given your own statement that you tend end up keeping many of your purchases because of enjoying them, it seems you have an emotional attachment as well.

 

So really - what would we be disagreeing on, other than the writer you admire and I find uninteresting?

 

[Tony S]

This is a comic book message board, populated by some of the most sophisticated comic collectors (as well as investors and speculators) in the (comic collecting) field.

 

They have observed the "rule of 25" as pertains to shifting nostalgic tastes and peak earning power of comic collectors. And a strong majority of them have been collecting and/or dealing comic books (as in, professionally--fort their livelihood) for longer than 25 years themselves.

 

You, by your own admission, have started in on Bronze Age comic books only recently. So I would submit that the folks here know what they're talking about, with regard to comic books.

 

I don't know mess from with regard to 99 percent of antiques, but I do know a bit about comic books, and I'm a lightweight compared to most on these boards.

 

But Tony S. is correct: a) you misjudge your audience; and b) your attempts to discredit the observed "rule of 25" is setting up a straw man argument.

 

Regardless--I'm curious: One of the recent examples of the comic world's "Rule of 25" was the significant increase in popularity and value of TMNT # 1 from 2004-2010.

 

Given that you've said you don't really invest in Copper Age books, and are (thus far) loathe to spend more than $2,000 on a single comic, do you think TMNT # 1 is a solid investment right now, in 9.2, at current GPA prices? ($2,700)

 

About as blue-chip as you can get, given that TMNT accomplished that rare feat of breaking out of comics to become a pop culture phenomenon, and that the kids who grew up on the movie and cartoon are now reaching their peak earning years.

 

In 9.6, the book's tripled in value since 2003 (that's what? 13% annually?); in 9.2, it's up 60 percent (5% annually--still better than bank rates).

 

Given that it's also arguably the most significant book of the last 30 years, what are your thoughts?

 

I don't know about "mints" thoughts on TMNT #1, but I'll offer an opinion. In the past, what held this book back from being worth much money were all the counterfeit copies. Every time the book sold for more than several hundred dollars someone would go take pictures and print some more.

 

Now that CGC is able to certify true originals, the book has steadily and substantially appreciated in value. I absolutely think it's a good investment at current prices. You just cannot get much more pedigreed than this book. Four feature films. On TV continuously since 1987. How many lunch boxes, toys and pajamas have been sold? The only thing I can see that might drag on prices a little bit is that despite a low print run (3000 copies) and a black cover there are more high grade copies (98 at 9.2 or better) than I would have thought. But that's still fewer high grade copies say than the 1968 Marvel first issues have in the census.

 

Short answer is yes - great investment potential. And if you grew up enjoying the turtles - or if you are like me and took the kids to go see the movies - then you can also enjoy the emotional satisfaction of owning a true piece of history. I mean this was just a couple of teenagers in their basement that created this...

[RockMyAmadeus]

[mintcollector]

"The safest approach is to avoid discussing the topic of future collectability with these individuals: first, they know more than anyone else; second, they are deaf to any opinion that does not agree with their own; third, they are misguided optimists, assuming past practice could not possibly apply in their case."

 

-Harry Rinker from the article 'The Myth of the Guaranteed Collectible.'

Posted on WorthPoint and his own website as well

 

I have answered this already. This point says it all; and I fully agree.

 

If you are not convinced yet, there is nothing more I can do for you. In all honestly other experts in the field of antiques and collectibles agree. Would you like me to publish their articles as well?

 

Then you can go against the grain of every expert in the field.

 

Understand that MOST dealers (of ANY antique or collectible) are not like me. Most will not tell the truth even if it means losing business. In fact, most do the opposite and tell stories of growth, ROI, and accelerated gains; all while ignoring the simple reasons that caused it (speculation, third party grading being introduced; etc.).

 

People learn MORE from failures than you do from success. You will have to learn on your own.

 

What I find interesting is that instead of going online and doing your own applicable research to prove your point; your only hope left is to come up with flawed arguments that have nothing to do with the subject at hand. Again, I didn't write any of the articles. A simple well written thought provoking email sent to the author may merit a response.

 

Final thought: You (Gatsby) claim I do not know my audience (this is your ONLY argument; sad to say). Keep in mind to that you left for awhile and ONLY returned to post in this thread when Tony S. did. I have to ask; have you read a single work I have ever wrote? This started in the bronze age forum; this is why it all ended up here. Reemeber the article posting on the related '30 year rule?' Remember some of those other threads that this same argument appeared in? All in the bronze age. Ironically you had no problem with them then...

 

Now ironically, you want my opinion on TMNT #1? Really?

 

As to the comment of 'devoid of emotion' I was referring to investing NOT collecting. This is CLEARLY stated. I even said, (and I praphrase); buy what you like, just do not convince yourself it is an investment.

 

In a future thread, I have been asked to share the 'checklist' that most experts use to determine if an antique or collectible is WORTH investing in. I will post this when I get more time. Note that this is the SAME checklist commonly used by most of the successful experts in the industry; if they are buying for investment and not for collecting or 'flipping' purposes.

 

I am sure you will disagree; because you know it all and can prove the 'experts' wrong.