When will/will the WALKING DEAD bubble burst? 7 7

[mintcollector]

The last 3 (9.8) sales, on average, have cleared roughly $1500 after eBay fees. $1645, $1625, $1700.

It still is doing better than an oz of gold has.

Walking Dead #1 CGC 9.8 = $1500

an oz of gold is way down = $1235

 

this is extremely relevant as every TWD reader has to make that snap decision: TWD #1 or Kruegerrand?

 

Everybody knows only Gold and Silver Age books have intrinsic value, the rest are just fiat comics.

 

No bronze age? Hulk 181, Asm 129,121,122, hero for hire 1, marvel premiere 15....?

 

It was a joke directed at the anti-federal reserve crowd's obsession with precious metals as the only legitimate backing for currency, perhaps a bit too esoteric.

 

Not at all. I thought it was quite funny...this is especially true if you visit the coin side of this forum as of late...

[accessndx]

 

Season 4 where art thou?

[BarryAllen]

The last 3 (9.8) sales, on average, have cleared roughly $1500 after eBay fees. $1645, $1625, $1700.

It still is doing better than an oz of gold has.

Walking Dead #1 CGC 9.8 = $1500

an oz of gold is way down = $1235

 

this is extremely relevant as every TWD reader has to make that snap decision: TWD #1 or Kruegerrand?

 

Everybody knows only Gold and Silver Age books have intrinsic value, the rest are just fiat comics.

 

No bronze age? Hulk 181, Asm 129,121,122, hero for hire 1, marvel premiere 15....?

 

How can you honestly say that Hulk 181 is not a bubble?

 

There are 4,487 universal graded Hulk 181 books in the CGC Census!!!

 

Like NM98 (3,423 in census) and moderns like WD1, it is appalling that these are worth more than their cover price. At some point, many people are going to lose a LOT of money and that (like real-estate) will be very bad for the market.

 

99% of comics printed past 1970 are not rare with the exception of very low print runs. Ironically this usually means "throw-away" 2nd and 3rd print runs.

[Mark 1]

The last 3 (9.8) sales, on average, have cleared roughly $1500 after eBay fees. $1645, $1625, $1700.

It still is doing better than an oz of gold has.

Walking Dead #1 CGC 9.8 = $1500

an oz of gold is way down = $1235

 

this is extremely relevant as every TWD reader has to make that snap decision: TWD #1 or Kruegerrand?

 

Everybody knows only Gold and Silver Age books have intrinsic value, the rest are just fiat comics.

 

No bronze age? Hulk 181, Asm 129,121,122, hero for hire 1, marvel premiere 15....?

 

How can you honestly say that Hulk 181 is not a bubble?

 

There are 4,487 universal graded Hulk 181 books in the CGC Census!!!

 

Like NM98 (3,423 in census) and moderns like WD1, it is appalling that these are worth more than their cover price. At some point, many people are going to lose a LOT of money and that (like real-estate) will be very bad for the market.

 

99% of comics printed past 1970 are not rare with the exception of very low print runs. Ironically this usually means "throw-away" 2nd and 3rd print runs.

 

Your post contradicts itself. You say WD1 is not rare but then say low print runs are an exception.

 

WD1 is a low print run book...unlike hulk 181.

 

WD1 is not rare but also not a common book.

[BarryAllen]

The last 3 (9.8) sales, on average, have cleared roughly $1500 after eBay fees. $1645, $1625, $1700.

It still is doing better than an oz of gold has.

Walking Dead #1 CGC 9.8 = $1500

an oz of gold is way down = $1235

 

this is extremely relevant as every TWD reader has to make that snap decision: TWD #1 or Kruegerrand?

 

Everybody knows only Gold and Silver Age books have intrinsic value, the rest are just fiat comics.

 

No bronze age? Hulk 181, Asm 129,121,122, hero for hire 1, marvel premiere 15....?

 

How can you honestly say that Hulk 181 is not a bubble?

 

There are 4,487 universal graded Hulk 181 books in the CGC Census!!!

 

Like NM98 (3,423 in census) and moderns like WD1, it is appalling that these are worth more than their cover price. At some point, many people are going to lose a LOT of money and that (like real-estate) will be very bad for the market.

 

99% of comics printed past 1970 are not rare with the exception of very low print runs. Ironically this usually means "throw-away" 2nd and 3rd print runs.

 

Your post contradicts itself. You say WD1 is not rare but then say low print runs are an exception.

 

WD1 is a low print run book...unlike hulk 181.

 

WD1 is not rare but also not a common book.

 

Fair point, I will clarify. ULTRA (versus my previously stated "very") low print-runs of 4,000 or less. I think WD1 had a print run of around 7,300...

 

Does that work?

[MostAwesomeComics]

I really, really want a hulk 181. I would love to hang it up right next to my walking dead #1. Add a giant sized x-men, tmnt #1 and an asm 129 and i wouldnt need a tv anymore. I would just sit and stare at them all day. Nude. With candles lit and Ninja Rap playing on vinyl.

[mrwoogieman]

I really, really want a hulk 181. I would love to hang it up right next to my walking dead #1. Add a giant sized x-men, tmnt #1 and an asm 129 and i wouldnt need a tv anymore. I would just sit and stare at them all day. Nude. With candles lit and Ninja Rap playing on vinyl.

 

Uhm, you're inner-monologue is leaking out...

[ItsJustRyan]

Demand outstrips demand hence the premium price of TWD #1...

 

You've got tens of thousands of fans (validated by current TWD print runs) that would love to get there hands on a #1.

 

Less than 500 9.8's on the census. Just over 1500 total slabbed. Sure there are raws out there, but who knows the condition and they are not being dropped on the market en mass, but are available.

 

I'd love to see prices come down to $500 for a 9.8, because I'd jump all over it... But I'm not holding my breath.

 

 

[BarryAllen]

I really, really want a hulk 181. I would love to hang it up right next to my walking dead #1. Add a giant sized x-men, tmnt #1 and an asm 129 and i wouldnt need a tv anymore. I would just sit and stare at them all day. Nude. With candles lit and Ninja Rap playing on vinyl.

 

 

 

Vanilla Ice peaked with that cameo... (sigh)

 

 

 

 

However, I do disagree about TMNT 1 first print. It has an extremely low print run and the lead characters are up there in popularity with Spider-man, Batman and Superman. The first group of "kids" that grew up with TMNT are just now getting to a ripe buying age and there are legions of them following. There has been some cartoon show iteration on TV steadily for +20 years and there are millions of toys and collectibles in market. This book has nowhere to go but up long-term.

[ItsJustRyan]

@rofoiii

 

That is still a low print run. Not 4000 low, but low.

 

[BarryAllen]

Demand outstrips demand hence the premium price of TWD #1...

 

You've got tens of thousands of fans (validated by current TWD print runs) that would love to get there hands on a #1.

 

Less than 500 9.8's on the census. Just over 1500 total slabbed. Sure there are raws out there, but who knows the condition and they are not being dropped on the market en mass, but are available.

 

I'd love to see prices come down to $500 for a 9.8, because I'd jump all over it... But I'm not holding my breath.

 

 

 

Fair point, doesn't mean its not a bubble.

 

Honestly, how long can the same group of people escape from zombies before it gets boring?

[BarryAllen]

@rofoiii

 

That is still a low print run. Not 4000 low, but low.

 

 

I don't understand. I was saying not to include it in the group he was basking at in the nude... (I assumed his post was ironic, but I could be wrong)

 

 

From what I can find, TMNT 1 first print had 3,000 copies...

Edited July 2, 2013 by rfoiii

[ItsJustRyan]

Just saying that 7300 is still a low print run considering the demand.

 

Also, everything is a bubble. Every organization, individual, system, and government gets to a point where growth is not sustainable at a certain rate. It's unrealistic to expect a company to grow it's revenue stream 50% year after year. At some point, that growth is unsustainable and the 'bubble' pops or corrects or resets (whatever you wanna call it).

 

If an individual has a goal to lose 5 lbs a week, at some point that becomes unsustainable. All metrics have a critical mass. When and how it's reached remains to be seen... I can keep going but I think you get the point.

[MostAwesomeComics]

What about the Walking dead #94 image expo convention sketch cover? Less than 200 of those in existence, that is a low print run. And the lucille variants graded 9.8 ss? Not too many of those around.

 

Then again they are variants.

[valiantman]

Honestly, how long can the same group of people escape from zombies before it gets boring?

Let the memes be your guide: http://weknowmemes.com/2013/04/25-funniest-walking-dead-memes/

(Warning: Not all safe for work. EXTRA Warning: Not all funny.)

 

(The John Redcorn and Dale Gribble reference is perfect, though.)

[BarryAllen]

Just saying that 7300 is still a low print run considering the demand.

 

Also, everything is a bubble. Every organization, individual, system, and government gets to a point where growth is not sustainable at a certain rate. It's unrealistic to expect a company to grow it's revenue stream 50% year after year. At some point, that growth is unsustainable and the 'bubble' pops or corrects or resets (whatever you wanna call it).

 

If an individual has a goal to lose 5 lbs a week, at some point that becomes unsustainable. All metrics have a critical mass. When and how it's reached remains to be seen... I can keep going but I think you get the point.

 

I would quote: reductio ad absurdum, but that would go on for awhile.

 

Yes your argument is valid, but no, not all "bubbles" are the same.

 

I could also create a colorful example using the half-life decay rates of radioactive isotopes to illustrate further, but I think you get the point.

[BarryAllen]

What about the Walking dead #94 image expo convention sketch cover? Less than 200 of those in existence, that is a low print run. And the lucille variants graded 9.8 ss? Not too many of those around.

 

Then again they are variants.

 

Like the modern "sketch" variants DC and now Marvel are releasing like crazy?

 

To your point, just because a print run is low, does not mean it will have large value (especially long-term).

[MostAwesomeComics]

I could also create a colorful example using the half-life decay rates of radioactive isotopes to illustrate further, but I think you get the point.

 

I like where this is going. I vote for a colorful isotope chart thing!

Edited July 2, 2013 by MostAwesomeComics

[ItsJustRyan]

Correct: not all bubbles are the same

 

And no, I don't get your point regarding radio active isotope decay

 

And no, I'm not trying to be a smart *spoon* - just trying to say that

 

(1) demand outstrips supply here (ECO101)

(2) TWD property has multiple drivers of the #1 value (or perceived value)

(3) until the demand is met on the market, prices will remain relatively constant (many variables determine straight auction prices : who's on the market that moment, budget, time of the year, perception, the seller, etc.)

[ItsJustRyan]

I vote for a colorful isotope chart thing!