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When will/will the WALKING DEAD bubble burst?
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Started by The-Collector,

3,607 posts in this topic

passion4comics

passion4comics

Posted
Posted

My prediction, based on pre-TV series pricing and its peak. TWD 1 9.8 will settle as a $900 book. There are around 600 9.8's. It's NOT a rare book. I think there are just as many 9.6s.

 

After the show is cancelled it will show a sharp drop over the first 3-months, then gradual upswing (recovery because it's oversold) for 6-months, then downtrend again to around $750. Finally, it will settle between $800-$1000 depending on the buyer after 3 years.

 

It's also very possible that TWD 2 will be a higher priced book for some time than #1.

 

Just my 2 cents after looking how hot stocks have acted over the last 20 years.

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Jaydogrules

Jaydogrules

Posted
Posted
I actually have no interest in ever owning an AF #15. Even if I found one at a great price it would quickly be sold. TMNT #1 I can relate to better only because I like the characters and I consider it a book (at least the first printing) that is somewhat scarce. I would call this a 'blue chip' copper age 'key' issue. The series survived a successful relaunch and is being enjoyed by a whole new generation of fans which is key for any kind of collectible to survive long term in today's market.

 

The Walking Dead on the other hand has only been around since 2001. One of the primary reasons for its rapid growth is the fact that it has a television series currently airing, but it has yet to stand the true test of time (note that TMNT is approaching thirty years old).

 

Several years after the series is cancelled I don't see this book maintaining its current prices levels. In fact I would venture to say that once the show is cancelled a lot of speculators will begin to sell their books. While this may not have an immediate impact on prices; as the series is slowly forgotten it will. As eloquently stated many times, "time will tell." It always does...

 

I respect your opinion with this, but I am going to use the Transformers as an example. When the animated Transformers TV series came out years ago the Transformer comic books were hot sellers in the LCS like the X-Men, then the animated Transformers got cancelled then like you say what will happen to the Walking Dead is Transformer sales dropped. Ok, you say that proves your point, but what happened to the Transformers was it never went away, and it rose again with billion dollar grossing movies. The same thing will happen with Walking Dead. Yes, TWD will eventually get cancelled, but someday they will bring it back as a trilogy on the big screen say like in 25 years?

People will then pay bigger bucks for TWD #1 in 25 years then they do now.

I can see young people who can`t afford TWD#1 now spending big bucks for it in 25 years.

So yeah your right it will cool down after the TV series is cancelled, but I see it rising again when they go to make TWD Hollywood movie blockbusters.

In the end TWD #1 is a winner.

 

 

 

Not saying that this wont happen but the situation you are positing requires many factors to align.

 

I would not say the bubble has bust but we have seen significant downward movement on issues number 1.

 

Not really. It has been a solid $2k book, give or take one or two hundred dollars for some time now.

 

-J.

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prez

prez

Posted
Posted
Pittsburgh is a zombie mecca. Out at one of Todds (he is a senior overstreet advisor) stores at century 3, they have all the early Walking dead issues collecting dust for about 6 months now in the case. At the mills store they have a bunch of walking dead back issues to on display noone seems to be interested in. (they actually downsized the Walking dead section at Cranberry last year)

 

At the recent Pittsburgh Comic-con usually there are lots of people buying walking dead merchandise but this year was definitely a bust.

 

Zombies are definitely fading a bit but thats the thing. I dont think the book will ever drop below $500, even when the dust settles.

 

 

But realistically, looking at the census numbers (quite a few 9.8's there) there is no way this book can maintain such a high value.. especially with the sharp decline in zombie popularity this last year... the fact every season but the first is kind of bad isnt doing the book good either.

 

everything boils down to census numbers vs demand. however this book despite the 10,000 print run was still horded and there are hundreds if not,thousands of 9.8's out there.

 

The fact walking dead #1 is selling for the same price or more than a 9.8 bronze key is sort of wonky considering those rare bronze 9.8's have as few 5-25 total in the census.

 

I respectfully disagree. By now WD 1 is a well entrenched modern blue chip key, to the point where people buy on the dips, thus raising the price back up whenever it falls below a certain level. Its initial print run is actually closer to 7300, not near the 10k you mentioned, and while 700 9.8/9.9's on the census certainly sounds like a lot, it is not as though they are all on the market simultaneously, and clearly their scarce availability at any given time is enough to maintain a very strong price point.

 

-J.

 

"modern | blue chip | key"

 

lol

 

Oxymoron: a figure of speech by which a locution produces an incongruous, seemingly self-contradictory effect, or are expressions composed of words that are not inherently mutually exclusive but express an opinion that the two cannot occur together.

 

(shrug)

 

I would have to agree. I don't think any true 'blue chips' from the modern era have yet to be established.

 

I would have to disagree.

 

WD #1 even though over valued by 25%-35% till the show ends is still a blue chip book.

 

AF 15 of the modern age.

 

eh, might be a little early to call it the "AF 15" of the modern age. AF 15 only is what it is because generation after generation of children have fallen in love with Spiderman and grown old enough spend a butt-load (sorry for the technical term) on his first appearance.

 

Its been what, just under 11 years since WD 1 was released? Popular or not, I might give it a bit more time before I equivalize it to one of the most highly collected and revered books in the hobby...

 

You know, just to be sure and all.

 

:D

 

I am sure.

 

lol

 

Besides Batman 608 RRP and WD #1 what is there really to call a pull chip book from the modern age.

 

WD #1 introduced main stream characters to the world.

 

If TMNT #1 is best book of the copper age you have to put WD #1 the best of the Modern age so far.

 

Just my view but yes time will tell....

 

I 100% agree... Walking Dead is the King of Moderns.

 

TV show is not good anyways - at least after season 1. When the show ends, people will still keep reading the comics.

 

Re: TMNT, kids are always going to be big fans and when they get older they end up speculating the comics.

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prez

prez

Posted
Posted
My prediction, based on pre-TV series pricing and its peak. TWD 1 9.8 will settle as a $900 book. There are around 600 9.8's. It's NOT a rare book. I think there are just as many 9.6s.

 

After the show is cancelled it will show a sharp drop over the first 3-months, then gradual upswing (recovery because it's oversold) for 6-months, then downtrend again to around $750. Finally, it will settle between $800-$1000 depending on the buyer after 3 years.

 

It's also very possible that TWD 2 will be a higher priced book for some time than #1.

 

Just my 2 cents after looking how hot stocks have acted over the last 20 years.

 

Sweet... Can't wait for the day to own that bugger!!!

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NewEnglandGothic

NewEnglandGothic

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Posted

Correct me if I am wrong, but wouldn't the Transformers toys hold more nostalgia down the road? I mean, when I was a wee lad, I have the fondest memories of getting a Shockwave knock-off toy for Christmas. At the time, all I was getting was Gobots. The Transformers were the more popular ones. I remember seeing it in one of those discount stores outside of Manchester and telling my grandmother it's all I wanted (knowing it was within her price range). It fell apart pretty quickly once I got it, but I still wouldn't mind hunting one of those counterfeit toys down to remember how happy I was when I was a kid.

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NewEnglandGothic

NewEnglandGothic

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Posted
My prediction, based on pre-TV series pricing and its peak. TWD 1 9.8 will settle as a $900 book. There are around 600 9.8's. It's NOT a rare book. I think there are just as many 9.6s.

 

After the show is cancelled it will show a sharp drop over the first 3-months, then gradual upswing (recovery because it's oversold) for 6-months, then downtrend again to around $750. Finally, it will settle between $800-$1000 depending on the buyer after 3 years.

 

It's also very possible that TWD 2 will be a higher priced book for some time than #1.

 

Just my 2 cents after looking how hot stocks have acted over the last 20 years.

 

Sweet... Can't wait for the day to own that bugger!!!

For a short time near the Fall of '04, raw #2's were more $$$ than #1's, due to the increasing demand and lower print run.
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NewEnglandGothic

NewEnglandGothic

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Posted
Sold my WD 1-100 run a year or two ago for $4500. Used that money to buy my AF #15.

 

Best move then, now, and in the future.

For the "investment" view, I agree.

 

Whether someone prefers one or the other, that's the personal feelings of the owner. That's my opinion.

 

It's their money.

 

 

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passion4comics

passion4comics

Posted
Posted

 

Shilltastic ;)

 

I ran a bunch of auctions this week. A lot of 2 feedback bidders pumping up prices and the ones that won are not paying. I'm not shilling so what the hell is going on? I this part of the hack? Is it to screw with EBay and not so much profit from the information they stole?

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romanheart

romanheart

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Posted

I stopped watching the series, and the from the last issue of 'All Out War' I can't say I like the direction of the comic anymore.

 

I think I like Zombie movies when they are trying to survive the initial onslaught of attacks and the world breaking down, not so much about the afterwards.

 

I'll probably watch the remaining episodes that I missed later but it's not a must see for me anymore.

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retrothecollector

retrothecollector

Posted
Posted

 

Shilltastic ;)

 

That guy is a boardie with the same handle.

 

If that goes for $1200 I am selling my WD1, 2, 19, and 27 9.8 and getting a nice silver. That's an insane price for that book. For that price, it's time for me to sell.

It's a joke. There are about 6-8 #27's for under $500. You'll never get this price unless you shill too. 2c

 

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bffnut

bffnut

Posted
Posted

 

Shilltastic ;)

 

I ran a bunch of auctions this week. A lot of 2 feedback bidders pumping up prices and the ones that won are not paying. I'm not shilling so what the hell is going on? I this part of the hack? Is it to screw with EBay and not so much profit from the information they stole?

 

The WD 27 auctions seems to be more like what happened to you as opposed to shilling. His other auctions look normal.

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darkstar

darkstar

Posted
Posted

I ran a bunch of auctions this week. A lot of 2 feedback bidders pumping up prices and the ones that won are not paying. I'm not shilling so what the hell is going on? I this part of the hack? Is it to screw with EBay and not so much profit from the information they stole?

 

 

Shilltastic ;)

 

That guy is a boardie with the same handle.

 

The seller doesn't have to be in cahoots with the shill bidder. Sellers are the victims of shill bidding all the time, with bids made by other sellers who have an interest in seeing the perceived market price of the auctioned book going up in price.

 

That two feedback bidder very likely has slabbed copies of the same book he is trying to get rid of.

 

Its in the best interest of sellers to cancel bids from low feedback buyers on more sought after books. Even if the seller himself isn't guilty of shilling, their is a perception that he is by the more informed eBay buyers, who will take the opportunity to avoid bidding on a book that has a string of bids. or numerous retaliatory bids, from a low feedback bidder.

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passion4comics

passion4comics

Posted
Posted

I ran a bunch of auctions this week. A lot of 2 feedback bidders pumping up prices and the ones that won are not paying. I'm not shilling so what the hell is going on? I this part of the hack? Is it to screw with EBay and not so much profit from the information they stole?

 

 

Shilltastic ;)

 

That guy is a boardie with the same handle.

 

The seller doesn't have to be in cahoots with the shill bidder. Sellers are the victims of shill bidding all the time, with bids made by other sellers who have an interest in seeing the perceived market price of the auctioned book going up in price.

 

That two feedback bidder very likely has slabbed copies of the same book he is trying to get rid of.

 

Its in the best interest of sellers to cancel bids from low feedback buyers on more sought after books. Even if the seller himself isn't guilty of shilling, their is a perception that he is by the more informed eBay buyers, who will take the opportunity to avoid bidding on a book that has a string of bids. or numerous retaliatory bids, from a low feedback bidder.

 

No, I never said the seller was shilling if it was interpreted that way. I was seeing the same stuff on some of my auctions. Low feedback bidders pumping up prices. What they did is lock out legit buyers. Another practice I've seen is someone bids at 60% FMV and then a shill bids 150% and never pays. Oddly, the under-bidder was at 140%. Are they expecting a second change offer at their bid of 60% once the higher bid is removed?

 

Now EBay wants everything to be in auction style? I don't think so....

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Rip

Rip

Posted
Posted (edited)

Although anything can happen, it doesn't look like it will be slowing down soon. Since the thread started the TV show has only gotten higher ratings and the comic is still going strong.

 

 

31cec0c9e20c421e2b1d1f719bf4b737.png

 

 

The ad rates are in the Sunday Night football range

 

http://nypost.com/2013/10/15/walking-dead-gives-amc-chance-to-charge-nfl-level-ad-prices/

 

With the strong ratings in hand — the audience for “Walking Dead” was larger than that of all of its rival Sunday-night dramas combined — AMC, run by President Charlie Collier, is seeking as much as $600,000.

By comparison, Sunday-night NFL games, the usual top ratings draw, have ad rates around $570,000, according to Adweek.

 

One article suggests the show is going to keep going past 2022

http://screencrush.com/the-walking-dead-season-4-future/

 

Plus THE WALKING DEAD COMPENDIUM, VOL. 1 has spent 132 weeks on the NY times best seller list.

 

June 1, 2014

http://www.nytimes.com/best-sellers-books/paperback-graphic-books/list.html?category=paperback-graphic-books&pagewanted=print

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by Rip
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