Analysis and theory on ComicLink's August OA auction on OCAL...

[mister_not_so_nice]

Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't $15K the asking price? Did it previously sell for $15K? I could ask a million dollars for all my art but it doesn't make it worth that...

 

It sold for $16,000 off of a dealer's website, was touted around CAF, garnered all of the attention is was going to get and then sold when the next shiny item came along.

[Ferran Delgado]

If you didn't read it in the credits, could you tell just by watching the image that Byrne only did breakdowns? At least I couldn't. This is not like when Miller did breakdowns in a small paper in DD...

 

http://www.comiclink.com/auctions/item.asp?back=%2FAuctions%2Fallsub%2Easp%3FFocused%3D1%26id%3D1398%23Item_942141&id=942141

 

In this Heritage auction of a panel page of the same issue it wasn't even mentioned in the description, and in my eyes, the page looks so good as the rest of the run.

http://comics.ha.com/c/item.zx?saleNo=829&lotNo=41361#Photo

[lb jefferies]

Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't $15K the asking price? Did it previously sell for $15K? I could ask a million dollars for all my art but it doesn't make it worth that...

 

It sold for $16,000 off of a dealer's website, was touted around CAF, garnered all of the attention is was going to get and then sold when the next shiny item came along.

 

Then I stand corrected.

[delekkerste]

I don't know if anyone can confirm, but I heard that the #122 splash traded hands for $17K at one point. $16K seems to be the level, which is still a big loss no matter what Byrne's input was. And that BWS Conan #2 page that traded hands at $10K earlier this year would also be a big loss no matter which era of BWS Conan you prefer. In any case, I think it's fair to say that not all OA is performing like '60s Marvel large art by the most important artists.

 

As you said elsewhere, educated men can disagree. Personally, I see better uses for my money in a lot of cases than buying more OA. I'm still looking to make a couple more acquisitions before the end of the year, but not in the '60s Marvel large art or mid-'80s-early '90s sectors which seem to be positively bubblicious of late. If I want to buy hard assets here (not saying I do, but just for argument's sake), why wouldn't I buy silver at 35% off of last year's peak prices or gold 15% below last year's peak prices or fine wine at 25% off of last year's peak prices instead of buying OA marked 25-50+% higher than end of 2011 prices? This is what many hard asset guys don't understand: price matters. Gold at $1,700 may or may not be a good inflation hedge. If gold were to quadruple in price in short order like that ASM #29 page, I'm not sure that $6,800 gold would really end up protecting you very well - you'd be better off buying less appreciated inflation hedges. Just some food for thought.

[Ferran Delgado]

Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't $15K the asking price? Did it previously sell for $15K? I could ask a million dollars for all my art but it doesn't make it worth that...

 

It sold for $16,000 off of a dealer's website, was touted around CAF, garnered all of the attention is was going to get and then sold when the next shiny item came along.

 

How strange that declared investors won't focus on this +50% loss...

[pinupcartoonguy]

I don't know if anyone can confirm, but I heard that the #122 splash traded hands for $17K at one point. $16K seems to be the level, which is still a big loss no matter what Byrne's input was. And that BWS Conan #2 page that traded hands at $10K earlier this year would also be a big loss no matter which era of BWS Conan you prefer. In any case, I think it's fair to say that not all OA is performing like '60s Marvel large art by the most important artists.

 

As you said elsewhere, educated men can disagree. Personally, I see better uses for my money in a lot of cases than buying more OA. I'm still looking to make a couple more acquisitions before the end of the year, but not in the '60s Marvel large art or mid-'80s-early '90s sectors which seem to be positively bubblicious of late. If I want to buy hard assets here (not saying I do, but just for argument's sake), why wouldn't I buy silver at 35% off of last year's peak prices or gold 15% below last year's peak prices or fine wine at 25% off of last year's peak prices instead of buying OA marked 25-50+% higher than end of 2011 prices? This is what many hard asset guys don't understand: price matters. Gold at $1,700 may or may not be a good inflation hedge. If gold were to quadruple in price in short order like that ASM #29 page, I'm not sure that $6,800 gold would really end up protecting you very well - you'd be better off buying less appreciated inflation hedges. Just some food for thought.

 

Somehow I don't think most OA collectors look at other assets. Pretty much it's all in with comic OA (and maybe comic books as well). The tricky part with OA is that just a handful of people may be driving up a certain sector, and if just one or two bail out, you might get stuck holding the bag.

[Mmehdy]

I don't know if anyone can confirm, but I heard that the #122 splash traded hands for $17K at one point. $16K seems to be the level, which is still a big loss no matter what Byrne's input was. And that BWS Conan #2 page that traded hands at $10K earlier this year would also be a big loss no matter which era of BWS Conan you prefer. In any case, I think it's fair to say that not all OA is performing like '60s Marvel large art by the most important artists.

 

As you said elsewhere, educated men can disagree. Personally, I see better uses for my money in a lot of cases than buying more OA. I'm still looking to make a couple more acquisitions before the end of the year, but not in the '60s Marvel large art or mid-'80s-early '90s sectors which seem to be positively bubblicious of late. If I want to buy hard assets here (not saying I do, but just for argument's sake), why wouldn't I buy silver at 35% off of last year's peak prices or gold 15% below last year's peak prices or fine wine at 25% off of last year's peak prices instead of buying OA marked 25-50+% higher than end of 2011 prices? This is what many hard asset guys don't understand: price matters. Gold at $1,700 may or may not be a good inflation hedge. If gold were to quadruple in price in short order like that ASM #29 page, I'm not sure that $6,800 gold would really end up protecting you very well - you'd be better off buying less appreciated inflation hedges. Just some food for thought.

 

Gene I think you underestimate the power of original art and its superiority over the CGC graded comic book today.

 

You spend 10K on a 9.2 Cap 27 CGC highest census. Can you open the book. and read it....NO, Can you enjoy it.....only when you spend 1/2 hour going to bank to look at the book in a dimly lighted bank. You cannot even touch the book and feel the paper. In the early days of collecting, OA was very scarce compared to the comic books, OA collectors were rare because the stuff was just not available to buy at anyprice, you could READ what you bought back then and feel like you owned the comic book, it had a certain feel to it. That all changed when marvel let a large selection or OA go back to the creators as well as EC art coming on the market, barks paintings etc and add the fact that you had to now put a comic book in a nuke shelter.

 

The collector today is not the same as he was back then, they want something to show other folks and enjoy on there wall everyday.

 

OA is coming...it took a long time...but its coming.....

 

Flat out on one a kind unique OA blows comic books away. That is why prices are going UP faster than the comic books themselves except for the very top items. I still shake my head though...600K for a 1980's cover....... Both comic books and art I feel are great investments if you buy carefully and will go up in value over time. But the greater upside for OA is there in my mind.

 

Here is a test, Gene, the OA to AF 15 the whole comic book was donated...that OA would bring much more than the comic book itself......

 

Now there are always exceptions to the rule. For example I would buy a Cap 1 today over any OA that is market priced. But if you look at the classic splash page coming up on Ha com by dikto...I would take that over a similarly priced AF 15 at say 100K.

 

One DISADVANTAGE of OA is that there is no CGC to tell you it is real or original. I hope and pray as the market expands that the CGC will consider grading and certifying OA with some sort of stamp on the back as well as a certificate.

 

 

[pinupcartoonguy]

I don't know if anyone can confirm, but I heard that the #122 splash traded hands for $17K at one point. $16K seems to be the level, which is still a big loss no matter what Byrne's input was. And that BWS Conan #2 page that traded hands at $10K earlier this year would also be a big loss no matter which era of BWS Conan you prefer. In any case, I think it's fair to say that not all OA is performing like '60s Marvel large art by the most important artists.

 

As you said elsewhere, educated men can disagree. Personally, I see better uses for my money in a lot of cases than buying more OA. I'm still looking to make a couple more acquisitions before the end of the year, but not in the '60s Marvel large art or mid-'80s-early '90s sectors which seem to be positively bubblicious of late. If I want to buy hard assets here (not saying I do, but just for argument's sake), why wouldn't I buy silver at 35% off of last year's peak prices or gold 15% below last year's peak prices or fine wine at 25% off of last year's peak prices instead of buying OA marked 25-50+% higher than end of 2011 prices? This is what many hard asset guys don't understand: price matters. Gold at $1,700 may or may not be a good inflation hedge. If gold were to quadruple in price in short order like that ASM #29 page, I'm not sure that $6,800 gold would really end up protecting you very well - you'd be better off buying less appreciated inflation hedges. Just some food for thought.

 

Gene I think you underestimate the power of original art and its superiority over the CGC graded comic book today.

 

You spend 10K on a 9.2 Cap 27 CGC highest census. Can you open the book. and read it....NO, Can you enjoy it.....only when you spend 1/2 hour going to bank to look at the book in a dimly lighted bank. You cannot even touch the book and feel the paper. In the early days of collecting, OA was very scarce compared to the comic books, OA collectors were rare because the stuff was just not available to buy at anyprice, you could READ what you bought back then and feel like you owned the comic book, it had a certain feel to it. That all changed when marvel let a large selection or OA go back to the creators as well as EC art coming on the market, barks paintings etc and add the fact that you had to now put a comic book in a nuke shelter.

 

The collector today is not the same as he was back then, they want something to show other folks and enjoy on there wall everyday.

 

OA is coming...it took a long time...but its coming.....

 

Flat out on one a kind OA blows comic books away. That is why prices are going UP faster than the comic books themselves

 

Funny, quite a few collectors I know have very little of their OA up on their walls. I think in many ways the hobby is driven less by wanting to show off their art, and more by people hoarding it.

[artcollector9]

Gene, thanks.

 

But you know we buy what we love, right?

 

If we make 18X cost back, and not 35X cost back, oh well? Not every deal needs to be a home run...unless we are strictly investors.

 

But, as you point out, the fine art (Raymond et al) stuff has lagged behind 60s super heroes-- for now.

 

That could mean it is poised to increase in the future to 'catch up'... a beautiful, large Flash Gordon seems cheap now when recent pieces far exceed its value, given the quality and relative scarcity of the 1936 Flash Gordon.

 

As I said, I think markets correct themselves backwards...recent stuff now, older stuff afterwards.

 

Plus, as this is arguably planned, it's logical. 'They' need the McFarlane floor of (say) 500K to support the coming Ditko at $1 Mil.

 

 

Rob

 

[Terry Doyle]

Funny, quite a few collectors I know have very little of their OA up on their walls. I think in many ways the hobby is driven less by wanting to show off their art, and more by people hoarding it.

 

 

I have many collector friends who like to display their art.

 

I'd certainly display more, myself, but . . .

 

Not enough wall space to do so.

 

My wife limits me to where I hang my comic-book art.

[malvin]

 

One DISADVANTAGE of OA is that there is no CGC to tell you it is real or original. I hope and pray as the market expands that the CGC will consider grading and certifying OA with some sort of stamp on the back as well as a certificate.

 

 

This would derail the thread but I don't agree with that statement. In fact, that statement scares me.

 

Malvin

[Khazano]

One DISADVANTAGE of OA is that there is no CGC to tell you it is real or original. I hope and pray as the market expands that the CGC will consider grading and certifying OA with some sort of stamp on the back as well as a certificate.

 

 

The minute that happens I will leave the hobby.

[Ferran Delgado]

Funny, quite a few collectors I know have very little of their OA up on their walls. I think in many ways the hobby is driven less by wanting to show off their art, and more by people hoarding it.

 

Maybe, but this is not my case. I have my collection in shelves to protect it from sunlight in spite that I'd love to have it hanged in the wall. I know, there are antiUV glass, but I can't find it in the small town where I live.

 

Just to avoid arguments with my girlfriend would be another reason not to display it...

[delekkerste]

Gene, did you ever consider to start a blog? It wouldn't take you more time than to write the posts in this thread, and I think that you would do a great service to the hobby...

 

Thanks, Ferran. It's funny, but my girlfriend actually suggested the same thing to me yesterday (something along the lines of "you spend so much time posting anyway, you might as well start a blog"). I guess I'd think about it, though I suspect that would make her even more annoyed with me than she is already for posting so much!

 

 

Not every deal needs to be a home run...unless we are strictly investors.

 

Totally agreed, Rob. As you've said before, at current price levels, almost everyone has to think at least a little bit about the investment factor. That said, if that's all it was, this hobby wouldn't be any fun (for me, anyway). I don't expect to make money on everything I buy, like Paul Smith X-Men pages (it's good stuff, but I don't see what's going to make them more desirable/expensive from current levels), or the Vampirella and Red Sonja OA that I collect, but I appreciate the art and oftentimes it's where the nostalgia is the strongest. I'm just focusing on the dollars and cents angle in this thread, though, since prices are what everyone is focused on in the wake of the auction cycle the past couple of months.

[artcollector9]

I don't think I've ever sold a piece of art at a loss, and I don't intend to.

 

But, it isn't the major consideration when I buy.

 

If I enjoy a piece for years, and make say 250%, I'm thrilled, and it doesn't occur to me that I could have bought a piece I hate and made 450% in that same time period.

 

But, art investing isn't my primary source of income.

 

Rob

[comix4fun]

Happy Birthday Rob!!!!

[artcollector9]

thanks Chris!!!

 

R

[jbud73]

Frazetta art hasn't underperformed-- on the contrary-- $1.5 Mil for a painting is a huge increase from pervious oil painting highs of 10 years ago...

 

I think you misunderstood me, Rob. On a percentage basis, Frazettas have grossly underperformed Marvel superhero art. The numbers speak for themselves. Frazettas were already king of the heap in the '80s and early '90s. A Frazetta from 20 years ago might "only" be worth, say, 8-15x more than what it was back then, while some Marvel art is worth 100-500+x as much. Some of those McSpidey covers were originally bought for 3-figures back in the day. A lot of Marvel covers were 2-digit items in the '80s and 3-digit items in the early '90s. Frazettas were already 4 and 5 figures for the most part, even 6 figures for some. For the Frazettas to have kept pace, they would have had to become 8-figure items in some cases! Meanwhile, I was offered a Famous Funnies cover less than 2 months ago for about the same price as the ASM #317 cover realized in the last Heritage sale.

 

Look at Terry's thread and see all those Herriman KK Sundays with a $2K minimum bid. Most of those today are probably $20-$35K type items. 10-18x higher than 25 years ago (and that's assuming they sold at the minimum bid, which is probably being overly conservative), yes, but that's a huge relative underperformance vs. superhero art. Over the past 25 years, it's the important superhero stuff that has outperformed the art that was once considered the best, most classic work (e.g., Frazetta, Raymond, Herriman, etc.) Not that the latter hasn't done well, but in the current environment, '60s Marvel art is king.

 

I love Frazetta Art, and even in my 30s find it an affront to good taste that the McSpidey sold for more than the WSF29. That said, I'd consider this analysis bang on and a statement of fact when considering the widest possible analysis.

 

When I was reading Terry's great thread I did think wow look at all that great EC art for 4 figures, but the most powerful impression was, "DAMN a NEAL ADAMS BATMAN FOR $200

[Terry Doyle]

Yeah, many happy returns, Rob - have a good one! (thumbs u

[Bronty]

One DISADVANTAGE of OA is that there is no CGC to tell you it is real or original. I hope and pray as the market expands that the CGC will consider grading and certifying OA with some sort of stamp on the back as well as a certificate.

 

 

The minute that happens I will leave the hobby.

 

Nothing wrong with a stamp and a letter. A grade would be assinine.