Analysis and theory on ComicLink's August OA auction on OCAL...

[jbud73]

.I don't think many people would agree that OA is competitively priced with slabs for the most part.

 

I take it you will be liquidating your OA collection to buy slabs

 

 

The liquidation has begun!!

 

http://www.comicartfans.com/GalleryRoom.asp?GSub=123981

 

 

 

Uh not even close, those are a few extraneous pieces that probably no longer fit his collecting tastes. Someone wake me when Gene offers these for sale.

 

http://www.comicartfans.com/GalleryPiece.asp?Piece=873244&GSub=127793

 

http://www.comicartfans.com/GalleryPiece.asp?Piece=480171&GSub=75358

[VintageComics]

I will say that within OA, just using prices as a guide there seems to be a problem agreeing on what is an A+ piece compared to an A or an A- piece sometimes whereas you don't really have that problem within comics.

 

The volatility comes from a lack of structure and agreement on what is better when comparing some pieces and nostalgia seems to play a much greater role when it comes to spending than historical importance, or age and rarity.

 

 

[Bronty]

.I don't think many people would agree that OA is competitively priced with slabs for the most part.

 

I take it you will be liquidating your OA collection to buy

 

 

Uh not even close, those are a few extraneous pieces that probably no longer fit his collecting tastes. Someone wake me when Gene offers these for sale.

 

http://www.comicartfans.com/GalleryPiece.asp?Piece=873244&GSub=127793

 

http://www.comicartfans.com/GalleryPiece.asp?Piece=480171&GSub=75358

 

Umm. It's called a joke bro

 

Gene would probably break out in hives just at the thought of serious selling . Not from missin the art but at the thought of shipping it all

[jbud73]

.I don't think many people would agree that OA is competitively priced with slabs for the most part.

 

I take it you will be liquidating your OA collection to buy

 

 

Uh not even close, those are a few extraneous pieces that probably no longer fit his collecting tastes. Someone wake me when Gene offers these for sale.

 

http://www.comicartfans.com/GalleryPiece.asp?Piece=873244&GSub=127793

 

http://www.comicartfans.com/GalleryPiece.asp?Piece=480171&GSub=75358

 

Umm. It's called a joke bro

 

Gene would probably break out in hives just at the thought of serious selling . Not from missin the art but at the thought of shipping it all

 

I knew that, but for those watching at home.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[delekkerste]

Well Schmell's Marvel collection, which was the Best Marvel Collection in the world just hammered for 3.2 Million - true he didn't sell the Spider-Mans.

 

Well, of course the (2nd?) best Marvel collection in the world is going to look like an expensive comp vs. OA. Well, actually...does it really? I mean, $3.94 million (with the juice) wouldn't even begin to rival the top OA collection values nowadays. And, if you ex-out a few major keys, a ton of those Schmell books sold at prices that wouldn't even get you to first base in the OA world - and we're talking in many cases top Census-type examples. Step down just one grading notch and the budget necessary to put together an impressive run plummets in cost from levels that don't even seem so high to a jaded OA collector like myself. Supplement those books by stepping down further in grade on the early, major SA keys and you can easily build a very respectable collection on an OA budget.

 

In BA, you'd scarcely need to make any compromises at all - even Hulk #181 9.8 is a 4-figure book these days - you can't even get 2/3rds of a Kirby JIM battle page these days for that money. For the price of a $15K Kirby JIM 106 page, you can get a Hulk #181 9.8, a GSXM #1 9.6 and an X-Men #94 9.4 and still have change left over I bet! And, if we're talking Avengers #3 money...well, you could just about build an entire BA collection for one of those pages.

 

 

.I don't think many people would agree that OA is competitively priced with slabs for the most part.

 

I take it you will be liquidating your OA collection to buy slabs

 

 

I'd buy kumquats before I bought slabs...no interest whatsoever.

[batman_fan]

Taking values out of the equation, I'm just as happy with reprint editions of those comic-books that figure highly in my life.

 

Owning the highest graded comic-book/s of any key title/s is a race I have no interest in competing in.

 

Anyone else feel this way?

 

Hey Terry, I feel the same way. I have actually been selling off my top grade books, in part because they may not be top grade in a while and the value drops dramatically if they aren't top grade.

[Bronty]

Well Schmell's Marvel collection, which was the Best Marvel Collection in the world just hammered for 3.2 Million - true he didn't sell the Spider-Mans.

 

Well, of course the (2nd?) best Marvel collection in the world is going to look like an expensive comp vs. OA. Well, actually...does it really? I mean, $3.94 million (with the juice) wouldn't even begin to rival the top OA collection values nowadays. And, if you ex-out a few major keys, a ton of those Schmell books sold at prices that wouldn't even get you to first base in the OA world - and we're talking in many cases top Census-type examples. Step down just one grading notch and the budget necessary to put together an impressive run plummets in cost from levels that don't even seem so high to a jaded OA collector like myself. Supplement those books by stepping down further in grade on the early, major SA keys and you can easily build a very respectable collection on an OA budget.

 

In BA, you'd scarcely need to make any compromises at all - even Hulk #181 9.8 is a 4-figure book these days - you can't even get 2/3rds of a Kirby JIM battle page these days for that money. For the price of a $15K Kirby JIM 106 page, you can get a Hulk #181 9.8, a GSXM #1 9.6 and an X-Men #94 9.4 and still have change left over I bet! And, if we're talking Avengers #3 money...well, you could just about build an entire BA collection for one of those pages.

 

 

.I don't think many people would agree that OA is competitively priced with slabs for the most part.

 

I take it you will be liquidating your OA collection to buy slabs

 

 

I'd buy kumquats before I bought slabs...no interest whatsoever.

 

 

I've never had a kumquat.... that's probably a tough thing to ask the girl in the grocery department for without looking like a perv

[Bronty]

I will say that within OA, just using prices as a guide there seems to be a problem agreeing on what is an A+ piece compared to an A or an A- piece sometimes whereas you don't really have that problem within comics.

 

The volatility comes from a lack of structure and agreement on what is better when comparing some pieces and nostalgia seems to play a much greater role when it comes to spending than historical importance, or age and rarity.

 

 

that's a good point Roy

[Bronty]

Well Schmell's Marvel collection, which was the Best Marvel Collection in the world just hammered for 3.2 Million - true he didn't sell the Spider-Mans.

 

. And, if you ex-out a few major keys, a ton of those Schmell books sold at prices that wouldn't even get you to first base in the OA world - and we're talking in many cases top Census-type examples.

 

 

And thank goodness. I'd slit my wrists if something like the top census... oh... X-men #29 went for ludicruous money (say 100k). There are a lot of inconsequential books in the marvel canon that aren't worth lunch money if the grade isn't there. If the grade IS there and the prices are somewhat attainable, well that's one of the few signs of sanity in the comic market.

 

 

[jbud73]

Taking values out of the equation, I'm just as happy with reprint editions of those comic-books that figure highly in my life.

 

Owning the highest graded comic-book/s of any key title/s is a race I have no interest in competing in.

 

Anyone else feel this way?

 

Hey Terry, I feel the same way. I have actually been selling off my top grade books, in part because they may not be top grade in a while and the value drops dramatically if they aren't top grade.

 

Sorry could you repeat that, I got distracted by the Classic Incorporated add for a $8 Quick Press service.

[Bronty]

[Mmehdy]

Most valuable comic book vs OA

 

Action Comics #1 is the most recognizable comic book collectable in the world. I doubt any piece of OA would ever come close to the mile high copy price in todays market. The future looks like changes are coming.

 

The recent two spiderman covers vs action 1 8.0. No contest both in the long run and short run I would take action 1.

 

WSF 29 and the 600k spiderman cover- no contest action 1 8.0 just too rare in that condition.

 

 

WSF 29 vs Action 1 4.0...wow close...WSF 29 I would take.

 

There are certain pieces of art in my opinion that are in the top of the field. while many will disagree, I value the WSF 29 as one of the most valuable comic book covers ever done, prob my fav next to action 1.

 

The most valuable piece of OA would be the cover to action 1 and if you asked me what would I take the MH action # 1 and I am assuming its 9.4 white pages or the OA cover. I would take the cover art.

 

The real tough one would be AF 15 art( we know that exists) vs MH action 1....after careful consideration of their value ( 3.42 mil for the MH action 1 vs 2.68 for AF orig art) I would say long term the AF art will surpass the MH action one value and I would take the comic, yesterday, today, and tomm...screww the dough in the long run...

 

Your choice ?

[Nexus]

Well Schmell's Marvel collection, which was the Best Marvel Collection in the world just hammered for 3.2 Million - true he didn't sell the Spider-Mans.

 

Well, of course the (2nd?) best Marvel collection in the world is going to look like an expensive comp vs. OA. Well, actually...does it really? I mean, $3.94 million (with the juice) wouldn't even begin to rival the top OA collection values nowadays.

 

Disagree.

 

$3.94M in OA allows you to build a top 10 collection on CAF.

 

$3.94M in fine/contemporary art allows you to decorate a home tastefully in the Hamptons. It does not come anywhere near to funding a world-class collection.

 

And, if you ex-out a few major keys, a ton of those Schmell books sold at prices that wouldn't even get you to first base in the OA world - and we're talking in many cases top Census-type examples. Step down just one grading notch and the budget necessary to put together an impressive run plummets in cost from levels that don't even seem so high to a jaded OA collector like myself. Supplement those books by stepping down further in grade on the early, major SA keys and you can easily build a very respectable collection on an OA budget.

 

If we're talking 8.5 or 9.0, then yes, you could build a very nice slab collection and no, that money would likely not be enough to fund an equally impressive OA collection. But if we're talking top census-type examples, then yes, you could. Not all Ditko ASM pages are $100K. Actually, only one. There were two others that sold for $30K and $40K in the same auction and they were arguably as nice. What have NON-KEY top-census ASM's 2-20 sold for? I don't know, but I'll bet a 9.6 or 9.8 has approached those figures, if not exceeded them. That's what I'd like to know...as we go forward, and more collections surface and more high-grade examples show up, what becomes more interesting to that type of collector? A high-grade copy or OA?

 

For myself, I still love comics, but have no more desire for high-grade copies. A big part of that has been due to the CPR game. Like Terry and others, I'm content with my art and mid-grade copies or reprints.

 

In BA, you'd scarcely need to make any compromises at all - even Hulk #181 9.8 is a 4-figure book these days - you can't even get 2/3rds of a Kirby JIM battle page these days for that money. For the price of a $15K Kirby JIM 106 page, you can get a Hulk #181 9.8, a GSXM #1 9.6 and an X-Men #94 9.4 and still have change left over I bet! And, if we're talking Avengers #3 money...well, you could just about build an entire BA collection for one of those pages.

 

Are we talking BA or SA? Because you've picked all SA for your OA examples.

 

 

If we're talking BA slabs, let's stick with BA art. For what it costs to get high-grade/top census BA slabs, you could buy nice pages by Neal Adams, John Byrne, Bernie Wrightson, BWS...you name it.

 

It wasn't that long ago when CAPTAIN AMERICA #117 9.8 was listed for sale on CLink for $35K. Highest graded, only copy in grade, etc. At the same time, the OA cover was available from a dealer for $25K.

 

.I don't think many people would agree that OA is competitively priced with slabs for the most part.

 

Most slab collectors simply haven't considered the possibility. Take the CAP #117 example above. When the 9.8 was listed for $35K, there were many long-time BA collectors who justified the value, since it was the only 9.8. When I pointed out that the OA cover was available for $25K, I know most, if not all, of them were surprised. The rationalizing of the $35K price tag stopped right there.

 

I think most slab collectors have just assumed that OA was more expensive than high-grade comics and that really hasn't been true. Again, picking 100 slabs from Heritage archives, totaling them up, and seeing what that amount would have bought in OA, can be eye-opening and instructive. The difference may not be as stark going forward, but I believe we are still only in the early stages of a change in collecting habits.

[jbud73]

Felix, the Cap 117 example is a nice one, that said there are still those barriers to entry in the OA market that I eluded to previously. In the past Heritage Auction, to get in with a Cover on the lower end you needed 2K . Two thousand will buy you a lot of really nice comic books. What we also need to remember is that for an average person making say 50-60K a year with bills etc, etc. 2K in disposable income is A LOT of money.

 

If I was to look at both markets I would surmise that there is a lot less cash being transacted in OA than appears on the surface due to the predominance of trade, or trade as a significant factor. In comics I would similarly suggest that there is a lot of re-cycling going on as people sell slabs to buy slabs; this is easier to do in comics as there are more gross buyers of comics than OA and there are more avenues to sell your comics.

 

I still think that both comics collectible markets are comprised largely of disposable income and more collectors than not treat the actual what you get as a nostalgic item rather than as a commodity. So the overall economy does have a part to play in the health of both hobbies; people must have than new income to dispose of into each hobby and be willing to do so, or sooner or later the re-cycling factors will have an impact on the stability of each market.

 

[Terry Doyle]

Most valuable comic book vs OA

 

Action Comics #1 is the most recognizable comic book collectable in the world. I doubt any piece of OA would ever come close to the mile high copy price in todays market. The future looks like changes are coming.

 

The recent two spiderman covers vs action 1 8.0. No contest both in the long run and short run I would take action 1.

 

WSF 29 and the 600k spiderman cover- no contest action 1 8.0 just too rare in that condition.

 

 

WSF 29 vs Action 1 4.0...wow close...WSF 29 I would take.

 

There are certain pieces of art in my opinion that are in the top of the field. while many will disagree, I value the WSF 29 as one of the most valuable comic book covers ever done, prob my fav next to action 1.

 

The most valuable piece of OA would be the cover to action 1 and if you asked me what would I take the MH action # 1 and I am assuming its 9.4 white pages or the OA cover. I would take the cover art.

 

The real tough one would be AF 15 art( we know that exists) vs MH action 1....after careful consideration of their value ( 3.42 mil for the MH action 1 vs 2.68 for AF orig art) I would say long term the AF art will surpass the MH action one value and I would take the comic, yesterday, today, and tomm...screww the dough in the long run...

 

Your choice ?

 

My choice?

 

I'd take the cash equivalent of any high-grade book . . .

 

Make do with reprint editions of books I actually like to read (for what they are - rather than what they represent) . . .

 

And with all the lovely money . . .

 

Spend it on Wine, Women and Song (not necessarily in that order) . . .

 

Oh, and buy some more cool OA.

[Nexus]

Felix, the Cap 117 example is a nice one, that said there are still those barriers to entry in the OA market that I eluded to previously. In the past Heritage Auction, to get in with a Cover on the lower end you needed 2K . Two thousand will buy you a lot of really nice comic books. What we also need to remember is that for an average person making say 50-60K a year with bills etc, etc. 2K in disposable income is A LOT of money.

 

If I was to look at both markets I would surmise that there is a lot less cash being transacted in OA than appears on the surface due to the predominance of trade, or trade as a significant factor. In comics I would similarly suggest that there is a lot of re-cycling going on as people sell slabs to buy slabs; this is easier to do in comics as there are more gross buyers of comics than OA and there are more avenues to sell your comics.

 

I still think that both comics collectible markets are comprised largely of disposable income and more collectors than not treat the actual what you get as a nostalgic item rather than as a commodity. So the overall economy does have a part to play in the health of both hobbies; people must have than new income to dispose of into each hobby and be willing to do so, or sooner or later the re-cycling factors will have an impact on the stability of each market.

 

 

Believe me, I know OA is expensive and sadly, prohibitively so for most comic collectors. The truth is, OA is not a hobby for the average comic collector. But then again, neither are high-grade keys, fine/contemporary art, import sports cars, vintage wines, or any of the other collectibles that have been mentioned in this thread. Multimillion dollar collections are an idea for most of us, not a reality.

 

However, I do not believe OA is overvalued when compared to high-grade comics or fine/contemporary art. Beyond that, I make no predictions other than to say I don't rule anything out. Not when something like Takashi Murakami's "My Lonesome Cowboy" sells for $15M. For anyone Googling that image, I apologize in advance.

 

 

[malvin]

Beyond that, I make no predictions other than to say I don't rule anything out. Not when something like Takashi Murakami's "My Lonesome Cowboy" sells for $15M. For anyone Googling that image, I apologize in advance.

 

 

I googled it. Apology accepted

 

Malvin

[Terry Doyle]

Holy jizz, Batman!

 

[delekkerste]

Disagree.

 

$3.94M in OA allows you to build a top 10 collection on CAF.

 

Why the "on CAF" qualifier? :yeahok: I'm not sure it actually does build a top 10 collection in the hobby (excluding the "on CAF" qualifier), and it surely doesn't build a top 2 type collection. But that's just high level and a bit besides the point, because when you delve into the nitty-gritty below...

 

 

If we're talking 8.5 or 9.0, then yes, you could build a very nice slab collection and no, that money would likely not be enough to fund an equally impressive OA collection.

 

First, in the slab market, at least you have the option of going down in grade and paying less money. In OA, the price is the price for a page. Second, you don't have to go down to 8.5s and 9.0s for the most part. Plenty of Schmell collection books (non-keys) sold for prices that wouldn't be the price of admission in the OA pool. And the more common keys (e.g., FF #48) can be had in grade for fractions of Kirby OA prices.

 

 

But if we're talking top census-type examples, then yes, you could. Not all Ditko ASM pages are $100K. Actually, only one. There were two others that sold for $30K and $40K in the same auction and they were arguably as nice. What have NON-KEY top-census ASM's 2-20 sold for? I don't know, but I'll bet a 9.6 or 9.8 has approached those figures, if not exceeded them. That's what I'd like to know...as we go forward, and more collections surface and more high-grade examples show up, what becomes more interesting to that type of collector? A high-grade copy or OA?

 

Felix, I think you are living in the past, with examples like these and the Cap #117 example - I mean, the latter is ancient history now. How much would it take to pry that cover loose from Hans today? Probably 50-100+% higher like everything else! And did that Cap #117 9.8 actually sell at $35K? Even if it did, you can get one now for less than 10% of that price (sale pending on CLink at $3,327!!) The "value" has plummeted now that one of the two crazies paying up for top Census examples is out of the market and the overall market has cooled off. Plus, there are now EIGHT 9.8s in the Census. That cover has gone from being priced at 140% of the Cap #117 cover (and who knows whether that was anywhere close to being realistic - at least I'm choosing actual sales to back up my examples and not choosing to compare slabs to The Walking Dead #19 cover priced at $50K!!) to being priced at less than 10% of the cover.

 

Not to mention, a perfectly respectable 9.4 or 9.6 would literally be pennies on the dollar vs. the OA. Who said the direct comp to OA had to be 9.8 or top Census prices? I said you could build an impressive collection in slabs for much less than the cost of OA. That is doable as long as you are not fixated on the few remaining competitive situations for top Census copies (heck, the #117 9.8 shows that even top Census copies can be comparatively cheap) and don't require the highest grades for the mega-keys. Again, you have that choice when collecting slabs. The only way to achieve lower costs in OA is to buy lower quality.

 

Also, regarding the ASMs, sure, a lot of them sold for krazy money...in the past. We all know that a lot of books (including some I still own) are down 50% or more from peak value today.

 

 

Are we talking BA or SA? Because you've picked all SA for your OA examples.

 

 

If we're talking BA slabs, let's stick with BA art. For what it costs to get high-grade/top census BA slabs, you could buy nice pages by Neal Adams, John Byrne, Bernie Wrightson, BWS...you name it.

 

That's just untrue. How much would the entire Byrne X-Men run in 9.6 cost nowadays? Probably less than the cost of a B-level Byrne X-Men page, let alone a $65K X-Men #137 page or a $25K+ #139 page. How much would the Wrightson Swamp Thing run cost you in 9.6? Heck, even 9.8? Probably less than the cost of any half-decent ST page, let alone something like a Frankenstein plate.

 

Anyway, the bottom line is that, yes, OA prices can go up. But, no, prices are not cheap versus slabs - most slab prices have deflated/crashed while the OA bubble keeps inflating. Yes, prices may be cheap versus the top 0.01% of fine art...but, then again, so is everything else in the world, which doesn't really make it a relevant comparison.

[delekkerste]

I think most slab collectors have just assumed that OA was more expensive than high-grade comics and that really hasn't been true. Again, picking 100 slabs from Heritage archives, totaling them up, and seeing what that amount would have bought in OA, can be eye-opening and instructive.

 

I've got an even better idea. We know what OA costs these days. Now, take that budget and go shopping on ComicLink. Assume that you can get 5-10% in discounts off the listed price and then go wild. I think you'll be surprised at how far your budget can go these days in slabs, especially if you don't have to have the highest graded copy. Cap #117 9.8 selling for 90+% less than its asking price a few years ago is only the tip of the iceberg. And did I say pennies on the dollar for a 9.4? I meant a single penny on the dollar. Much of the slab hobby is still priced in 2, 3 and 4-figures. The same cannot be said of OA.