Analysis and theory on ComicLink's August OA auction on OCAL...

[Bronty]

trouble with that is if you are going to look at the "other 99%" of fine art, you have to look at the "other 99%" of comic art.

 

Not to keep beating this dead horse,

 

well we might as well shut down these boards if there is no dead horse beating allowed

[Bronty]

trouble with that is if you are going to look at the "other 99%" of fine art, you have to look at the "other 99%" of comic art.

Comparing a Calder work on paper to a B-level Ditko ASM page though? I can see people coming down on either side of that argument and I would say that would be a conversation worth having.

 

 

Ehh... I think you might as well compare the price of kumquats to the price of diamonds or the price of salmon to the price of bicycles. You are probably literally the only person in the world that might have in interest in both someone like calder and an asm page Or in the dreaded Ruscha vs Frazetta beatdown

[Bird]

I'm trying to understand your point on comic oa approaching fine art levels because so far I don't see it unless one compares the very top comic oa with lesser fine art pieces and or fine art by artists yet to establish themselves.

 

Well, I think relative comparisons are all you can make, unless you believe that the top examples of OA should sell for comparable levels to the top examples of fine art. In any case, the point I was trying to make is that a lot of OA collectors seem to have a warped view of how OA is valued vs. fine art. While it's true that the prices on the top <1% of fine art make everything else on the planet, including OA, look cheap, that just tells me this is a bogus comparison and that it's much more relevant to compare OA to the other 99% of art which sells at prices which are, if not cheap, at least aren't totally beyond the realm of human comprehension.

 

trouble with that is if you are going to look at the "other 99%" of fine art, you have to look at the "other 99%" of comic art. I just bought a cerebus page for $650. Reasonable price, I'm happy with it, and to me its a price relative to fine art that is perfectly fair.

 

I suspect the reason you have the view that comic OA is getting expensive is because you like to collect the good stuff, the 1%, and sure, that's risen a lot. But comparing the "top 1%" of anything to the "other 99%" of anything else is never going to result in a fair comparison. Compare the $30k Calder drawing to the $650 cerebus page. Doesn't seem unreasonable to me.... fair comparison and fair relative values.

 

Many Cerebus pages sold at $100 or $125, so you did not pay more than 6.5X original price from the artist.20 years later. 7X that McFarlane original price point, or $650K? You got a great deal comparably! (You actually did I think.)

[Mmehdy]

One of the best theads of the the year hands down. No yelling no name calling...just great info and opinions. I just feel the OCA blows away the old stuff.....some painting 200 years ago.....but that is my personal opinion not saying one is a better investment than another...but I would much rather have "HIP" art......than some " old dude or gal...holding a book with a smile"

[batman_fan]

I look at a painting like this one and it really makes me contemplate whether comic art is the place to be putting a lot of money. This is a painting I was seriously considering bidding on but it went beyond my max.

 

 

 

[artcollector9]

This is lovely...what did it sell for?

 

I've branched out into fine art, and I'm glad I did...

 

But I keep coming back to comic art!!

 

Rob

[batman_fan]

This is lovely...what did it sell for?

 

I've branched out into fine art, and I'm glad I did...

 

But I keep coming back to comic art!!

 

Rob

 

$35k. I was really hoping for less than $25k but figured I would go to $30k so I was way off. There are a few more of his works in the next Heritage auction but not as nice as this one.

[delekkerste]

Ehh... I think you might as well compare the price of kumquats to the price of diamonds or the price of salmon to the price of bicycles. You are probably literally the only person in the world that might have in interest in both someone like calder and an asm page Or in the dreaded Ruscha vs Frazetta beatdown

 

 

Well, I don't think one necessarily has to have an interest in both a Calder and a Ditko to make a comparison between them. A collector might not have any interest in buying a new Ferrari either, but if B+ Ditko pages suddenly started fetching Ferrari 458 kind of money, I bet it'd make him stop and question how much value he was getting for his money. Or if a McSpidey cover suddenly sold for as much as a converted 2-bedroom NYC apartment overlooking Lincoln Center in the full-service luxury doorman building my friends used to live in...OH WAIT, THAT'S ALREADY HAPPENED. :doh:

 

Let's take the argument to its logical extreme just to illustrate the point. Let's say Ditko pages started fetching as much as a stack of Calder works on paper. You might still have no desire to own a Calder, but I bet if someone pointed out the relative valuation to you, you'd be left with a slightly sick feeling in your stomach. Or if Ditko pages started selling for Roy Lichtenstein money - you may hate RL's work and have no desire to own it, but you'd still be left with a sneaking suspicion that maybe Ditko prices were just a bit

 

That's why I think the kinds of comparisons I make are relevant. If the price of Ditkos goes up, all other things being equal, that makes them more expensive versus cash, kumquats, Ferraris, apartments, Calders, Lichtensteins, and everything else. At some point, unless you have no need or desire for anything else but to acquire more high-end OA, years of relative outperformance will render alternatives, whether investment or consumption-oriented in nature, more attractive than OA. For the investment-minded, it should also get you thinking about the risk of "mean reversion". Just remember legendary investor Howard Marks' observation: "No asset is so good that it can't become a bad investment if bought at too high a price." Never forget that price is what you pay...value is what you get.

 

Again, I'm not saying that OA prices can't continue to go up, especially as comic money continues to roll into the hobby (how much staying power these newbies will have given the sticker shock and fewer flipping opportunities in OA remains to be seen, however). What I am saying, though, is that an increasing swath of OA prices doesn't look cheap to me, both absolutely and relatively vs. kumquats, cars and fine art. What people do with that observation, if anything, is entirely up to them.

[Bird]

This is lovely...what did it sell for?

 

I've branched out into fine art, and I'm glad I did...

 

But I keep coming back to comic art!!

 

Rob

 

$35k. I was really hoping for less than $25k but figured I would go to $30k so I was way off. There are a few more of his works in the next Heritage auction but not as nice as this one.

 

Do you mind me asking how large that painting is? It is wonderful.

[micmack]

It all comes down to personal aesthetic taste whether it is OA or fine art etc. and who has the money to spend. I was attempting to explain the sudden escalating prices of OA to my wife who had the same thoughts as I. We would rather have (and could get all) top level Illustration art from the likes of Leyendecker, Pyle, Wyeth, Wilcox Smith, Coles Phillips or Elvegren for the price of that McFarlane cover alone. It just felt like too many eggs in one basket for such a recent piece.

 

Check out this great article on the state of art collecting ....100 years ago.

Saturday Evening Post - July 15, 1911

 

It is up on the Yahoo groups ComicL

Chris

[batman_fan]

This is lovely...what did it sell for?

 

I've branched out into fine art, and I'm glad I did...

 

But I keep coming back to comic art!!

 

Rob

 

$35k. I was really hoping for less than $25k but figured I would go to $30k so I was way off. There are a few more of his works in the next Heritage auction but not as nice as this one.

 

Do you mind me asking how large that painting is? It is wonderful.

 

18in x 21.5in

[Bronty]

Ehh... I think you might as well compare the price of kumquats to the price of diamonds or the price of salmon to the price of bicycles. You are probably literally the only person in the world that might have in interest in both someone like calder and an asm page Or in the dreaded Ruscha vs Frazetta beatdown

 

 

Well, I don't think one necessarily has to have an interest in both a Calder and a Ditko to make a comparison between them. A collector might not have any interest in buying a new Ferrari either, but if B+ Ditko pages suddenly started fetching Ferrari 458 kind of money, I bet it'd make him stop and question how much value he was getting for his money. Or if a McSpidey cover suddenly sold for as much as a converted 2-bedroom NYC apartment overlooking Lincoln Center in the full-service luxury doorman building my friends used to live in...OH WAIT, THAT'S ALREADY HAPPENED. :doh:

 

Let's take the argument to its logical extreme just to illustrate the point. Let's say Ditko pages started fetching as much as a stack of Calder works on paper. You might still have no desire to own a Calder, but I bet if someone pointed out the relative valuations to you, you'd be left with a slightly sick feeling in your stomach. Or if Ditko pages started selling for Roy Lichtenstein money - you may hate RL's work and have no desire to own it, but you'd still be left with a sneaking suspicion that maybe Ditko prices were just a bit

 

That's why I think the kinds of comparisons I make are relevant. If the price of Ditkos goes up, all other things being equal, that makes them more expensive versus cash, kumquats, Ferraris, apartments, Calders, Lichtensteins, and everything else. IMO, at some point, unless you have no need or desire for anything else but to acquire more high-end OA, years of relative outperformance will render alternatives, whether investment or consumption-oriented in nature, more attractive than OA. For the investment-minded, it should also get you thinking about the risk of "mean reversion". Just remember legendary investor Howard Marks' observation: "No asset is so good that it can't become a bad investment if bought at too high a price." Never forget that price is what you pay...value is what you get.

 

Again, I'm not saying that OA prices can't continue to go up, especially as comic money continues to roll into the hobby (how much staying power these newbies will have given the sticker shock and fewer flipping opportunities in OA remains to be seen, however). What I am saying, though, is that an increasing swath of OA prices doesn't look cheap to me, both absolutely and relatively vs. kumquats, cars and fine art. What people do with that observation, if anything, is entirely up to them.

 

Fair point. Actually there's some evidence of that just on this thread with people thinking about illustration art although some of that might happen at any price point.

 

You know, lost in all this is the most relevant comparison of all. cgc graded books .... since that's what the collector understands, a primary alternative for someone looking at comic art, and also as its the source of some new oa collectors' cash to burn in art.

 

i.e. the price of an apt in NYC may not mean anything to a guy living in kansas but the price of a vg Action 1 does.... and there's no question that if kirby and ditko pages were to continue to climb that collector might ask himself what he'd rather have.

 

Or for the silver age guys, ff1 9.2 just sold for 200k, xmen 1 9.8 IIRC for 500k, how does that compare to OA buys. Forget mcspidey and DKR as those may be outliers. How does it compare to the 50k kirby or ditko page or a 200k cover. Can you get something as 'special' in OA for 200k as the white mountain ff1 9.2. For right now, I tend to think that yes you can.

 

Let's take Thor as an example. This stunning Thor pinup posted here by clemso, its previous owner sold at heritage for 45k. Recently resold for 70k. Steroidal growth. At 70k, what grade JIM 83 could that Thor fan have gotten instead (or sold to fund the purchase?).

 

http://comics.ha.com/c/item.zx?saleNo=7033&lotNo=92115

 

Looking at GPA, the answer appears to be somewhere between a 9.0 and a 9.2. Now that's a pretty special book but its a pretty special piece of art too. That direct comparison doesn't seem off to me. At 9.2 I find myself second guessing... and the market does value the 9.2 at higher than 70k. At 9.0 I'd do that trade for sure... and the market agrees. Heck I'd do it at 9.2.

 

But, I may be skewing things by looking at such a great thor page. Certainly the prices on some of the random FF kirby pages are starting to look really high to me. That said kirby and ditko are the two guys that I can kind of make the excuse for because I do feel there should be separation between them and the pack.

[micmack]

The difference from my perspective is that the condition of comics (graded or not) can change at any moment due to just handling it, thus affecting the value instantly. I just didn't have the discipline or the nerves to keep the collection "perfect". With OA or illustration art, while condition is important, if I happen to slighting blunt a corner, 98% of collectors may not give a cr@p.

[suspense39]

I was curious as to why the Kirby Hulk # 3 page went at around 18,000 which was far less than the later FF pages in the same auction. It was an action page although not with large images of Hulk, and from the earliest known original Hulk original art pages. Hulk has always been one of the most popular heroes and as well as the page being early, Kirby really didnt draw that many compared to his other creations, there's not a lot of Kirby Hulk pages out there. any thoughts?

[Nexus]

I've made this point before, regarding relative values. Going with the JIM #83 Bronty brought up, I'd say a more direct comparison is this page from the book:

 

http://comics.ha.com/c/item.zx?saleNo=7023&lotNo=93146

 

$65K. An incredible page, imo. What grade of JIM #83 can you get for $65K? Would it be the highest ranked? That's the appeal for ultra-high grade slabs, isn't it? To have something that's relatively rare. Or, better yet, a one-of-a-kind highest graded copy.

 

There are tons of other examples. Forget keys, we've seen non-keys hit five figures (perhaps even six?) when the corresponding OA from those books could be had for much less. (No, I'm not saying either are good buys, just pointing out how each has been valued.)

 

The difference in values between graded comics and OA really struck me a couple of years ago during the ACTION #1 sales. An 8.0 sold for $1M. That was followed shortly by an 8.5 selling for $1.5M. Assuming those sales were real, someone was willing to pay $500K more for a copy that was one grade better. What was the difference between the two books? Besides the assigned .5 grade difference? Was it a spine tick? A bent corner? Whatever it was, someone was willing to pay $500K for one less defect.

 

Meanwhile, at that time, NO American comic art had come anywhere close to $500K. The highest price paid at that point was $380K for Frazetta's WEIRD SCIENCE-FANTASY #29. So basically, the 8.5 buyer could have gotten the 8.0 AND the WSF #29 cover AND had $120K leftover. Yes, the 8.5 is the "better" copy, but the fact is, there are still at least 2 copies better out there. Who knows, maybe more. Is it really that important, then, to have the 8.5 over the 8.0?

 

Even now, $1M (let alone $1.5M) would buy you a killer OA *collection*. In comics, you get the 3rd or 4th highest graded copy.

 

So no, not surprised at all that comic guys are getting into OA. Whenever I saw those sales, with multiples being paid for incrementally higher grades, I thought there was a really good possibility those collectors just hadn't discovered OA yet.

 

Regarding the separate discussion re: fine/contemporary art and OA...having read a little about the subject, and talking about it with other more knowledgeable friends, my conclusion is that it's less important to consider whether or not OA is "art", than to consider the collectors/buyers. To me, the motivations are similar and the psychology is similar. Prestige is key. Such acceptance may or may not happen in our lifetimes, but I will point out that no buyer of Hirst, Koons, Murakami, et al, was ever nostalgic for that work. I don't mean to lump OA with those guys, but the other point would be that if that is considered "art", then anything is possible.

[ashrael]

Although i seem to be in the low 4 figure range of collecting OCA, I appreciate that someone can still pick up art for 25.00-100.00 at comic art auctions....its kind of shocking really!

 

I don't want to get too far off topic here, but speaking of shocking- while I know that many here dislike Rob Liefeld's art, I recently noticed that a number of his published DC covers have been going for what I would think are real low prices- about $250-$400 a pop on eBay. He seems to have a huge fan base too (evidenced by the lines he attracts at cons), I'm guessing they're more comic collectors rather than OA

 

There was a recent Youngblood cover he sold on eBay that went for only $200, man I wish I got in on that just to have a Liefeld cover, controversies aside.

 

I considered bidding on some of those, but there was always something distracting (artistically) in them that I just couldn't look past.

[delekkerste]

Even now, $1M would buy you a killer OA *collection*.

 

Yeah, it would get you the DKR #3 splash, the ASM #328 cover and...er, wait, no, you'd already be over budget. But, wait, you could get ten B+ Ditko ASM pages at the new rate of $100K each, though. Or 20 early, if unspectacular, Kirby FF pages!

 

Man, I really don't envy anyone getting into the hobby at this stage of the game.

 

 

I will point out that no buyer of Hirst, Koons, Murakami, et al, was ever nostalgic for that work. I don't mean to lump OA with those guys, but the other point would be that if that is considered "art", then anything is possible.

 

True, but nostalgia has never been a major for fine art, while it is the primary driver for collectibles (and let's face it, OA is as much collectible as it is art).

[jjeanius]

Going back to the comparison of CGC books...Metropolis' booth was very close to the Heritage booth, and I remember looking at some of the blue chip books in their case shortly after spending some time admiring the OA on display at Heritage. Metropolis had a blue CGC 1.8 copy of 'Tec 27 for $149,000 (admittedly a bit higher than the last recorded sale, but...arguably the most affordable complete low-grade copy available). This is basically equivalent to the final price of the McSpidey ASM 317 cover. Obviously two opposite ends of the spectrum here...but as a buyer, this is the choice you could be left with.

[Nexus]

Even now, $1M would buy you a killer OA *collection*.

 

Yeah, it would get you the DKR #3 splash, the ASM #328 cover and...er, wait, no, you'd already be over budget. But, wait, you could get ten B+ Ditko ASM pages at the new rate of $100K each, though. Or 20 early, if unspectacular, Kirby FF pages!

 

Man, I really don't envy anyone getting into the hobby at this stage of the game.

 

Ha! Sure, pick the outliers:P

 

How about this...what would you say your collection is objectively worth, market value-wise? More or less than $1M? I'm going to guess less than $1M, from what I can recall, without going through your entire collection.

 

Now...which would you rather have? Your OA collection...or ACTION #1 8.0? What would give you more satisfaction?

 

I can say that my collection is definitely worth less than $1M. But I wouldn't sell it for $1M or trade it for an ACTION #1. For one, I wouldn't be able to buy the same pieces back. Even if you don't believe OA is one-of-a-kind, and I could still get similar pieces, I'd still need to spend years putting a collection back together. If the market keeps going the way it has...it will be a losing proposition before I'm done.

 

More importantly, I'm a lot happier with my OA collection than I would be with any one comic.

 

I will point out that no buyer of Hirst, Koons, Murakami, et al, was ever nostalgic for that work. I don't mean to lump OA with those guys, but the other point would be that if that is considered "art", then anything is possible.

 

True, but nostalgia has never been a major for fine art, while it is the primary driver for collectibles (and let's face it, OA is as much collectible as it is art).

 

Well, I would say art is often looked at as a collectible, also. Hence, Charles Saatchi, Armand Hammer, John Fisher, and so on. Art is a collectible to those guys as well, even without nostalgia. That's why the end user needs to be considered along with the product (and let's face it, a lot of what we're talking about is as much product as it is art).

[Bronty]

I was curious as to why the Kirby Hulk # 3 page went at around 18,000 which was far less than the later FF pages in the same auction. It was an action page although not with large images of Hulk, and from the earliest known original Hulk original art pages. Hulk has always been one of the most popular heroes and as well as the page being early, Kirby really didnt draw that many compared to his other creations, there's not a lot of Kirby Hulk pages out there. any thoughts?

 

good point. I liked and thought about that page myself and it seems like a much better value than the FF pages... I agree.