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The Modern Speculation Thread
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Started by thirdgreenham,

633 posts in this topic

Venom

Venom

Posted
Posted
New Mutants 87.. first cable..

Whats going to make Cable hot again?

 

  • why you think it will increase in value?
  • (%) probability that it will go up.
  • what price do you think it will achieve?
  • how long we should hold it? ie. long term/short term
  • additional notes:

 

I am assuming the thought was if the new Cable and X-Force comic takes off.

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boomtown

boomtown

Posted
Posted
X-Men Annual #14

 

why you think it will increase in value?

Now apparently 1st appearance of gambit?

 

(%) probability that it will go up.

100% - new series is selling well & getting a lot of interest

 

what price do you think it will achieve?

$30 - $40

 

how long we should hold it? ie. long term/short term

flip the cheap one's now and buy more

 

As this heats up, do you think it will sink the value of 266? Or will the increased interest in Gambit also drive 266 as his first "full" appearance?

 

I hope this is gonna go up. I have a store that is sitting on approx 20 copies in NM- or better at cover price. They seem to be sellin online in the 4-9 range .. so I might cherry pick a half dozen of the best and play the waiting game.

 

There is a reason why your store has 20 copies. A they printed the hell out of it and B its a cameo so its never gone up in value much. X-men 266 is safe I dont see this book sky rocketing.

 

 

I don't expect it to ever overtake X-Men 266 but it is definitely more than just a cameo appearance. Gambit was running around with the rest of the mob of characters for a good 10 pages (arriving with Storm).

 

This book has been unfairly presented as a cameo for years & people are finally realizing that it actually does have a claim to Gambit's first appearance. Most of the people calling it a Cameo have never even looked through the book to try to see what was going on in that convoluted storyline. Sometimes I think the "Cameo" term is as bad as "Restoration" when looking at a books investment potential.

 

Marvel's distribution department screwed up & this book is Gambit's first appearance. When the book hit I thought "Hey they have a new character in the X-men, where the heck did he come from??" A few weeks later it all made sense, but it doesn't change the fact that the Annual was his first appearance.

 

I've seen some raws moving for $8-$12 on ebay, which is a decent jump from a year ago.

 

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gaz973

gaz973

Posted
Posted

Rightly or wrongly, I think there is close to zero chance of annual # 14 being accepted by collectors in general as the 1st appearance. X Men # 266 is too firmly entrenched as the 1st + it's the first storywise as well as having the prominent Gambit cover. It's a far more appealing issue and I don't think that the fact that the annual came out first can compete with the other points.

 

The fact that the annual came out first has always been known so I see no reason why it will go up in value significantly.

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400yrs

400yrs

Posted
Posted (edited)

Seeing as Chew and PP was what I was referring to - what now?

Who has ALL this years Image titles?

My points are valid wether you agree or not.

Certainly. Your points are that you know how to make a list of things to look out for having the hindsight of two books which are already insanely popular. There's certainly no arguing with that, but there are many, many books that fit your criteria that will never ever go anywhere. Many books that I loved, but didn't catch on.

 

Your list is definitely more equipped for quick flips, but that's not the only side of speculation. There is a long term aspect too, which I reserve for books like those Tec books and books like Scalped #1 that I've scooped out of back issue bins at $3 for the last few years.

 

 

Convince me that a world famous brand didn't think that 37k was too few copies.

 

Here's Nov 2010 sales:

 

http://www.comichron.com/monthlycomicssales/2010/2010-11.html

 

Outsold by Buffy would make you optimistic I'm sure. I can see your point.

 

Now the complete Runs - 871 - 881 are selling:

 

http://www.ebay.com.au/itm/Batman-Detective-Comics-871-881-Complete-Scott-Snyder-Run-1st-Prints-/221132700654?pt=US_Comic_Books&hash=item337c893bee

 

http://www.ebay.com.au/itm/Detective-Comics-871-881-Batman-Joker-Snyder-Jock-Black-Mirror-/251170074407?pt=US_Comic_Books&hash=item3a7ae72f27

 

http://www.ebay.com.au/itm/DETECTIVE-COMICS-871-881-COMPLETE-SCOTT-SNYDER-RUN-1ST-PRINTS-HOT-/251167403543?pt=US_Comic_Books&hash=item3a7abe6e17

 

This last one is the best this month.

 

But you have to divide that by 11. And bags and boards and what you paid in the first place.

Getting $5.10 for a $3 comic after storage + postage after 2 years isn't what I would call hot.

 

On it's own:

 

http://www.ebay.com.au/itm/DETECTIVE-COMICS-871-1ST-PRINT-HTF-VERY-RARE-HOT-1ST-SCOTT-SNYDER-BLACK-MIRROR-/300797826811?pt=US_Comic_Books&hash=item4608f296fb

 

Sold yesterday - $8.

 

As someone else pointed out, you are only looking at the low sales. Personally, I've moved copies of 871 and 873 at $20 - 25 with no problem. You just have to watch the availability on the market and sell at the right time. In fact, I'm not interested in selling them at those prices anymore because I think of the book as more of a long term book. Is this a quick flipper in the sense that it's the hot new thing? No, but I'm holding for the longer term.

 

 

 

But,as you told us in a previous thread - you have been holding quite a stash for nearly 2 years, so I guess you have a vested interest.

 

Not really quite a stash. I have probably a few of each left. What I've sold has more than paid for what I have left.

 

Or you could go out and buy TWD #92 1st appearance of Jesus and turn your $3.99 into $35 inside 13 months.

I know which I did.

 

Oh, I've done that as well, except they cost me $2.99. (thumbs u

 

I only buy and flip books that I like. Sometimes, it's a quick flip, sometimes it's a book I don't mind holding for the longer term or forever if needs be (My hoard of Proof #1s have more than been paid for by the Proofs I've sold and I'm fine to hold onto them forever).

 

 

Good luck with your future sales. :foryou:

 

You too. :banana:

 

 

 

 

Edited by 400yrs
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FlyingDonut

FlyingDonut

Posted
Posted

My pick for speculation? ANY mainstream Marvel title published between 1997 and 2001. Very low (~25K for SPIDER-MAN!) print runs, and you can buy them for literally pennies. Stick them away. The Rule of 25 always holds.

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fastballspecial

fastballspecial

Posted
Posted
My pick for speculation? ANY mainstream Marvel title published between 1997 and 2001. Very low (~25K for SPIDER-MAN!) print runs, and you can buy them for literally pennies. Stick them away. The Rule of 25 always holds.

 

^^

 

But lately some of those books arent selling as well as they used. Maybe a good time to buy.

 

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Underground44

Underground44

Posted
Posted
My pick for speculation? ANY mainstream Marvel title published between 1997 and 2001. Very low (~25K for SPIDER-MAN!) print runs, and you can buy them for literally pennies. Stick them away. The Rule of 25 always holds.

 

What are your thoughts on Ultimate Spider-Man and DD Vol#2? I've seen some nice runs of these available recently selling for a pittance of what they used to be worth. It'd be interesting to know what your thoughts are on these because they fall into that criteria.

 

USM lot auction

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awakeintheashes

awakeintheashes

Posted
Posted

Lookouts #1 and 2

 

Very very low print runs. Penny arcade fan base. All ages comic that is a great story.

 

#1 can be found for cover for now, but #2 is sold out almost every place I've looked.

 

I think over the next year the price on these will see a nice jump as more people discover the series.

 

Also, #1 SDCC variant is already an $18-$24 book.

 

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Beige

Beige

Posted
Posted

Seeing as Chew and PP was what I was referring to - what now?

Who has ALL this years Image titles?

My points are valid wether you agree or not.

Certainly. Your points are that you know how to make a list of things to look out for having the hindsight of two books which are already insanely popular. There's certainly no arguing with that, but there are many, many books that fit your criteria that will never ever go anywhere. Many books that I loved, but didn't catch on.

 

Your list is definitely more equipped for quick flips, but that's not the only side of speculation. There is a long term aspect too, which I reserve for books like those Tec books and books like Scalped #1 that I've scooped out of back issue bins at $3 for the last few years.

 

 

Convince me that a world famous brand didn't think that 37k was too few copies.

 

Here's Nov 2010 sales:

 

http://www.comichron.com/monthlycomicssales/2010/2010-11.html

 

Outsold by Buffy would make you optimistic I'm sure. I can see your point.

 

Now the complete Runs - 871 - 881 are selling:

 

http://www.ebay.com.au/itm/Batman-Detective-Comics-871-881-Complete-Scott-Snyder-Run-1st-Prints-/221132700654?pt=US_Comic_Books&hash=item337c893bee

 

http://www.ebay.com.au/itm/Detective-Comics-871-881-Batman-Joker-Snyder-Jock-Black-Mirror-/251170074407?pt=US_Comic_Books&hash=item3a7ae72f27

 

http://www.ebay.com.au/itm/DETECTIVE-COMICS-871-881-COMPLETE-SCOTT-SNYDER-RUN-1ST-PRINTS-HOT-/251167403543?pt=US_Comic_Books&hash=item3a7abe6e17

 

This last one is the best this month.

 

But you have to divide that by 11. And bags and boards and what you paid in the first place.

Getting $5.10 for a $3 comic after storage + postage after 2 years isn't what I would call hot.

 

On it's own:

 

http://www.ebay.com.au/itm/DETECTIVE-COMICS-871-1ST-PRINT-HTF-VERY-RARE-HOT-1ST-SCOTT-SNYDER-BLACK-MIRROR-/300797826811?pt=US_Comic_Books&hash=item4608f296fb

 

Sold yesterday - $8.

 

As someone else pointed out, you are only looking at the low sales. Personally, I've moved copies of 871 and 873 at $20 - 25 with no problem. You just have to watch the availability on the market and sell at the right time. In fact, I'm not interested in selling them at those prices anymore because I think of the book as more of a long term book. Is this a quick flipper in the sense that it's the hot new thing? No, but I'm holding for the longer term.

 

 

 

But,as you told us in a previous thread - you have been holding quite a stash for nearly 2 years, so I guess you have a vested interest.

 

Not really quite a stash. I have probably a few of each left. What I've sold has more than paid for what I have left.

 

Or you could go out and buy TWD #92 1st appearance of Jesus and turn your $3.99 into $35 inside 13 months.

I know which I did.

 

Oh, I've done that as well, except they cost me $2.99. (thumbs u

 

I only buy and flip books that I like. Sometimes, it's a quick flip, sometimes it's a book I don't mind holding for the longer term or forever if needs be (My hoard of Proof #1s have more than been paid for by the Proofs I've sold and I'm fine to hold onto them forever).

 

 

Good luck with your future sales. :foryou:

 

You too. :banana:

 

 

 

 

The same Scalped that is selling for $200+ in 9.8?

 

You've done well there - It's the black spine thats the problem isn't it, along with a flaw highlighting dark cover.

I have been grabbing them as well - some are at CGC and I imagine that there will be a strong chance of a 6 month wait.

However in the meantime,The Movie/series of this book moves ever closer - as if there was one book that would make a brilliant series on a reasonable budget - it's Scalped.

As for TWD #92 - I'm in, I'm suprised that the 1st appearance of Jesus isn't ringing out loud and clear as the next big key.

Kirkman has repeatedly said he is in it for the long haul - #92 will overtake #27 in time.

In OZ we have to pay a premium on books TWD now costs $5 here btw.

 

One I'm suprised at is #53 - I thought 1st Abraham,Rosita and Eugene would be a semi-key,especially as all 3 stuck around (2 still Rosita seems to have faded away but I think Eugene may come into it as armourer/inventor type character).

What are your thoughts on #53 and #92.

I can't commit to Nagan as a key as no-one knows how long he will last - but if its 20+ issues,then that will have to join the list surely?

I must check his actual first appearance.

Nice thread (thumbs u

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Beige

Beige

Posted
Posted

I agree - and I think he may be something to do with the introduction of a military unit... :gossip:

 

He was a sergeant in the comic yes?

Michelle Rodriguez could play Rosita for mine...she loves the sci-fi horror stuff anyway (Bloodrayne,Avatar and Resident Evil).

I've stashed a few away, and may grab a few more in time,but I am reluctant to hold more than 50 in case it doesn't go according to plan.Same as Nagan.

I think we can all agree #92 will command much higher prices in 12 - 18 months time, esp 9.8.

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Underground44

Underground44

Posted
Posted
Lookouts #1 and 2

 

Very very low print runs. Penny arcade fan base. All ages comic that is a great story.

 

#1 can be found for cover for now, but #2 is sold out almost every place I've looked.

 

I think over the next year the price on these will see a nice jump as more people discover the series.

 

Also, #1 SDCC variant is already an $18-$24 book.

 

Yes that was strange with The lookouts. #2 was sold out nearly as soon as it was released. Luckily I pre-ordered a couple and I'm in for the series of this book.

 

I'm really not too confident that it'll ever be a money earner TBH (I hope I'm wrong) but I think it's a good honest book with great art that deserves a lot more attention. #1 had a tiny print run of 4,144 so hopefully the demand outweighs supply one day (thumbs u

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ThoseBackPages

ThoseBackPages

Posted
Posted
I agree - and I think he may be something to do with the introduction of a military unit... :gossip:

 

He was a sergeant in the comic yes?

Michelle Rodriguez could play Rosita for mine...she loves the sci-fi horror stuff anyway (Bloodrayne,Avatar and Resident Evil).

I've stashed a few away, and may grab a few more in time,but I am reluctant to hold more than 50 in case it doesn't go according to plan.Same as Nagan.

I think we can all agree #92 will command much higher prices in 12 - 18 months time, esp 9.8.

 

Yes he was a sergeant.

i agree about Michelle Rodriguez (was a big fan of hers on LOST)

 

 

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400yrs

400yrs

Posted
Posted

The same Scalped that is selling for $200+ in 9.8?

 

You've done well there - It's the black spine thats the problem isn't it, along with a flaw highlighting dark cover.

 

Yep. The spine is definitely tough on that book.

 

 

 

 

Regarding TWD 92 and 53, alot depends on the show especially with Abe, but I don't think I'll be selling my copies at the current $15 - $30. I'd rather hold onto them and find out if they are going to be the future 19 and 27.

 

 

 

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Underground44

Underground44

Posted
Posted

The same Scalped that is selling for $200+ in 9.8?

 

You've done well there - It's the black spine thats the problem isn't it, along with a flaw highlighting dark cover.

 

Yep. The spine is definitely tough on that book.

 

 

 

 

Regarding TWD 92 and 53, alot depends on the show especially with Abe, but I don't think I'll be selling my copies at the current $15 - $30. I'd rather hold onto them and find out if they are going to be the future 19 and 27.

 

 

 

Would print runs be a factor though? 92 has a print run of over 30,000 whereas 19 and 27 are around the 20,000 mark.

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