Dropping like a Rock!!!

[sfilosa]

JC will love this, but it seems that Incredible Hulk #181 in CGC 9.6 is dropping like a rock. While this isn't a book I usually follow, I have/had a chance to acquire one in a package deal a few weeks ago. I almost pulled the trigger but fortunately didn't.

 

GPA

 

April 2004 $5,290

May 2004 $4,550

June 2004 $4,899

July 2004 $4,300 , $4,205

 

and then today (notice it has White pages).

Hulk #181 CGC 9.6 ( $4,000)

 

 

While I don't want to see a great crash, I do believe collectors / speculators that are paying very high prices for this book (and other like it) that have very large census numbers (80 graded 9.6 already and of course several high grades), realize that SUPPLY also matters (not just DEMAND)

[DiceX]

Now if 9.0's will take a 20% dive.

[Aman619]

thats very interesting data. People may in fact be buying with their heads, not their wallets. Just hope, as you say, fear doesnt take over as a result.

[uclapeterg]

I hate the fact that GPA doesn't track page quality.

 

I know the most current sale is for white pages, but the white spine showing might have scared some people off.

[gpanalysis]

We're working on this.

 

Regards

GP

[delekkerste]

This can't be - LordRahl chastised me in a loud and grotesque manner very recently that this book wasn't softening up!

 

Surely you're not implying that he might be wrong?

[blowout]

6 copies in 5 months sold in CGC 9.6 condition? But I thought this was a tough book in Ultra high grade?

[awe4one]

6 copies in 5 months sold in CGC 9.6 condition? But I thought this was a tough book in Ultra high grade?

 

If it keeps dropping, I'd expect many more to pop up for sale in the very near future....

 

"It feeds on itself, it does......"

 

Jim

[sfilosa]

6 copies in 5 months sold in CGC 9.6 condition? But I thought this was a tough book in Ultra high grade?

 

 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

 

 

If it keeps dropping, I'd expect many more to pop up for sale in the very near future....

 

"It feeds on itself, it does......"

 

 

The fact that there is PLENTY of SUPPLY, could cause just that. And if it starts dropping in 9.6, then 9.4, 9.2, etc. will follow. Maybe not as great of percentage, but they will drop.

[Solar]

The fact that there is PLENTY of SUPPLY, could cause just that. And if it starts dropping in 9.6, then 9.4, 9.2, etc. will follow. Maybe not as great of percentage, but they will drop.

 

Hope so. I'd really love a 9.4 of this book, but wont pay anywhere near current prices.

[kryptonitecomics]

The fact that there is PLENTY of SUPPLY, could cause just that. And if it starts dropping in 9.6, then 9.4, 9.2, etc. will follow. Maybe not as great of percentage, but they will drop.

 

Hope so. I'd really love a 9.4 of this book, but wont pay anywhere near current prices.

 

I concur

[dam60]

The fact that there is PLENTY of SUPPLY, could cause just that. And if it starts dropping in 9.6, then 9.4, 9.2, etc. will follow. Maybe not as great of percentage, but they will drop.

 

Hope so. I'd really love a 9.4 of this book, but wont pay anywhere near current prices.

 

I concur

 

Believe it or not, I would love to get a nice 9.4 of this book and GS X 1 but nowhere near these prices and not while I am still so far off on the Batman run . . . one day . . .

[sfilosa]

Question to all those who want a nice copy (which includes myself):

 

At what price would you buy a 9.4 (or 9.6)?

 

In other words if 9.4's started selling for $1,500 would you buy? Or would you expect it to get lower?

[LordRahl]

Way to pat yourself on the back and change your original argument yet AGAIN. For those that would like facts rather than your singular corner of reality where arguments can be changed as many times as necessary to fit the facts... Your ORIGINAL statement, which was probably 2 or 3 months ago, was that Hulk 181, X-Men 94 and ASM 129 in HIGH GRADE were soft. At the time, the data for those 3 books in 9.0 and higher did not bear out your argument. Of course your argument changed from those 3 books in HIGH GRADE to X-Men 94 in 9.6, now it has expanded to include Hulk 181 in 9.6. I don't know why I'm bothering to argue with someone who's ego is so fragile that he must always be right no matter what. Hate to break it to you but when you made your original statement, you know the one that I argued with, you were wrong. Or are you STILL not seeing that Hulk 181, X 94 and ASM 129 in high grade does not equal X 94 in 9.6

[jbud73]

And I'm right there with ya Dam, I hate to admit it, but my collecting habits are being swayed by the movie madness and speculator stupidity. I have a 181 in 7.0 to 8.0 but want one over 9.0 and the same applies to GS-Xmen #1. However, I have balked at the prices over the past 2 years with all the copies flying around.

 

I have devoted much attention to my Batman run - with words of wisdom from Dam60 and others who it seems blazed the trail for me. I have picked up the DC horror Bug and thanks to advice and idea exchange from Matt and others have really found an appreciation there. If the new Batman movies throws prices back into the stratosphere I will devote more time to DC horror, or find something else. The spectrum of hobby is still to big for me and there is just too many awesome books out there to be painted into a corner by speculator craze after craze.

 

Now if I was only a little more into the selling side and had the time I could jump on the band wagon with some of the other forumites and fleece the sheep.

[jimm94]

I think the auction end time may have partially contributed to the lower price. Ending a high dollar book the afternoon Comic-Con concludes is bad timing. Not that every big spender was in SD, but I'll bet it reduced the number of serious players enough to supress the final price by a few hundred dollars.

 

The miswrap could definitely have been a factor too...

[joe_collector]

And I'm right there with ya Dam, I hate to admit it, but my collecting habits are being swayed by the movie madness and speculator stupidity.

 

If you want cheaper Bronze comics, there is only one thing you need to do:

 

WAIT.

 

No matter what you think of Gold or Silver values, only the very foolish believe that 1970's comics won't take a serious tumble. The Census numbers on some of these are staggering, and will only get worse as time goes by.

[sfilosa]

I knew JC would love this.

 

Regarding the timing of the auction, I agree it ended on at a bad time. I had hoped to pick up a few nice Silver-Age books during the SD Con week, with the assumption that there would not be as many buyers. At least on the books I wanted, that didn't happen.

 

The fact is, the last three to four sales of this book have come way down from the highs set a few months ago. Even ComicLink shows a Hulk #181 CGC 9.6 White page (but slight miscut) sale for $4,550, which shows that people aren't trying to get record prices on this book anymore.

 

Lastly, 9.6's were getting too high of a multiple compared to 9.4's. It was well over double and that's too much (IMO) unless there were a very limited amount of 9.6's (which is not the case with 80 in the census).

[dam60]

And I'm right there with ya Dam, I hate to admit it, but my collecting habits are being swayed by the movie madness and speculator stupidity. I have a 181 in 7.0 to 8.0 but want one over 9.0 and the same applies to GS-Xmen #1. However, I have balked at the prices over the past 2 years with all the copies flying around.

 

I have devoted much attention to my Batman run - with words of wisdom from Dam60 and others who it seems blazed the trail for me. I have picked up the DC horror Bug and thanks to advice and idea exchange from Matt and others have really found an appreciation there. If the new Batman movies throws prices back into the stratosphere I will devote more time to DC horror, or find something else. The spectrum of hobby is still to big for me and there is just too many awesome books out there to be painted into a corner by speculator craze after craze.

 

Now if I was only a little more into the selling side and had the time I could jump on the band wagon with some of the other forumites and fleece the sheep.

 

I tell you, I really am starting to realize and appreciate the cyclicality of the market. I would like to add another aspect to the whole "movie hype" phase and that would be - "out of sight, out of mind". I think a lot of the selling right now for this book are from people who digged the X2 movie but now would rather have the funds to buy a Batman book or maybe a FF book. Now that we have 2 years to go for X3 there will be a real lul in these books as people would rather go after something else. The true die hards already have their copy and might use this as a time to upgrade, but for the casual fan just about 1 year after the movie with plenty of other movies in the works these books have been pretty much hyped out. Let's face it - a good movie is suppossed to make you look long and hard at the books with some fondness and desire.

 

Personally, I had a GS 1 and Hulk 181 both in 9.6 with OW pages and ended up trading them for a good chunk of my present day Adams Bat books and a pile of cash. I will always have a soft spot for Colossus and would get the GS 1 before the Hulk 181 but nevertheless the X-Men are cool! It's just that I don't have a bottomless pit of money and would rather focus on the Bats for the long haul then get "distracted" on these Marvels.

 

To answer the question of when would I buy - I would have to fill the Batman run first and foremost and I don't anticipate doing that for the next 20-30 years. I finally feel like I have the discipline around my collection now and my goals to not go and do something "stupid" like spend "$1500" on a Hulk 181 when that same money could do some serious damage to my want list. It's not about the price for me, it's about the other books that I want more.

[supapimp]

the realised prices for Hulk 181 should/possibly be corrected to for slabbed copies:

 

9.2 - $900

9.4 - $1400

9.6 - $3500