Are Marvel keys ready to plateau in value.

[markseifert]

I wouldn't count on an Iron Man reboot. Sure the character remains reasonably popular, but he is currently being outsold by Aquaman.

 

If Marvel Studios is going to be using that as a gauge, they're in trouble. Aquaman also currently outsells Captain America, Hulk, Thor, and Daredevil.

 

(and of course, Aquaman outsold the entire Marvel line briefly last year).

 

Marvel Studios is virtually forced to keep Iron Man viable, since they can't do Spider-Man (Sony), X-Men / Wolverine (Fox), or Fantastic Four (Fox). Aside from Avengers, IM is their most proven box office property by a significant margin.

[Jeffro.]

IMO,

 

DD 1 will never hit the levels of the other major Marvel keys. Too many around. Yes, you can say the same thing about AF15 but Spiderman will ALWAYS trump DD easily in both popularity and demand. It should grow somewhat. The questions is how much?

 

TTA 27 - C'mon, it's freakin' Ant Man.

Say it with me people, Ant Man. How much higher can it possibly go?

It's got scarcity on its side and its one of the key marvel 10centers.

 

I'll buy the scarcity angle, but the character is b-list at best

[MagnetoWasRight]

IMO,

 

DD 1 will never hit the levels of the other major Marvel keys. Too many around. Yes, you can say the same thing about AF15 but Spiderman will ALWAYS trump DD easily in both popularity and demand. It should grow somewhat. The questions is how much?

 

TTA 27 - C'mon, it's freakin' Ant Man.

Say it with me people, Ant Man. How much higher can it possibly go?

It's got scarcity on its side and its one of the key marvel 10centers.

 

I was just going to say that...if I remember correctly it has the second lowest print run of the big Marvel keys. This would be the point where my boy MLMeade, the statician, chimes in and hopefully confirms my claim...or makes me look like an insufficiently_thoughtful_person.

[Jeffro.]

But scarcity alone won't push it into the stratosphere, dollar wise. At least, I don't believe it will. The inherent lameness of the character should hold it back.

 

Now, if AF 15 had that lower print run, look out! God only knows what that book would be going for right now.

[ChasingKingKirby]

IMO,

 

DD 1 will never hit the levels of the other major Marvel keys. Too many around. Yes, you can say the same thing about AF15 but Spiderman will ALWAYS trump DD easily in both popularity and demand. It should grow somewhat. The questions is how much?

 

TTA 27 - C'mon, it's freakin' Ant Man.

Say it with me people, Ant Man. How much higher can it possibly go?

It's got scarcity on its side and its one of the key marvel 10centers.

 

I was just going to say that...if I remember correctly it has the second lowest print run of the big Marvel keys. This would be the point where my boy MLMeade, the statician, chimes in and hopefully confirms my claim...or makes me look like an insufficiently_thoughtful_person.

 

Actually, pretty sure it's the smallest. I'm faaaaar too lazy to chase down the actual print runs, but if we use the CGC census as a ballpark baseline, the census numbers for TTA27 is minuscule. Literally about half it's closest competitor Hulk 1. (349 for TTA 27 and 608 for Hulk 1) Now, slab census doesn't 100% mean that TTA27 is twice as scarce as Hulk 1, but it's a fair indicator. I suspect there's more financial incentive to slab Hulk 1 vs TTA27, but with the heat behind TTA27 and the fact that it's been hot for a couple years now, I would think the indicators are in the ball park.

[shadroch]

 

 

I'd wager that the SA keys will do better than the average money market for the next 3-5 years.

As a matter of fact, I have already placed that bet.

 

Shad do you work in the money markets? Just curious to get the opinion of someone with quantitative skills.

 

I don't work for money. My money works for me, but no I'm not involved in the financial market other than as an investor.

[jimjum12]

IMO,

 

DD 1 will never hit the levels of the other major Marvel keys. Too many around. Yes, you can say the same thing about AF15 but Spiderman will ALWAYS trump DD easily in both popularity and demand. It should grow somewhat. The questions is how much?

 

TTA 27 - C'mon, it's freakin' Ant Man.

Say it with me people, Ant Man. How much higher can it possibly go?

It's got scarcity on its side and its one of the key marvel 10centers.

 

I was just going to say that...if I remember correctly it has the second lowest print run of the big Marvel keys. This would be the point where my boy MLMeade, the statician, chimes in and hopefully confirms my claim...or makes me look like an insufficiently_thoughtful_person.

 

Actually, pretty sure it's the smallest. I'm faaaaar too lazy to chase down the actual print runs, but if we use the CGC census as a ballpark baseline, the census numbers for TTA27 is minuscule. Literally about half it's closest competitor Hulk 1. (349 for TTA 27 and 608 for Hulk 1) Now, slab census doesn't 100% mean that TTA27 is twice as scarce as Hulk 1, but it's a fair indicator. I suspect there's more financial incentive to slab Hulk 1 vs TTA27, but with the heat behind TTA27 and the fact that it's been hot for a couple years now, I would think the indicators are in the ball park.

 

.....the Marvel pre hero book print runs ranged from 140,000 to 160,000. I recall seeing a circulation report in TOS 52 (i think) with figures pushing 170,000.....so most of the Marvel keys are most likely of similar numbers. It's the survival rate that creates any hierarchy of scarcity.....and TTA 27, as a pre hero, would almost certainly be at the top. Hardly anyone saved those. People started putting 2 and 2 together when the FF re-introduced Sub-mariner, realizing this no name company was actually Timely of old. This, coupled with the rebirth of many of DC's superheros and the fact that a 2 year old copy of BB 28 that sold for 10 cents was fetching 50 cents or even a dollar made saving them (among certain circles) a viable option. GOD BLESS...

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus) (thumbs u

[kimik]

DD 1 will never hit the levels of the other major Marvel keys. Too many around. Yes, you can say the same thing about AF15 but Spiderman will ALWAYS trump DD easily in both popularity and demand. DD 1 should grow somewhat. The questions is how much?

 

The same issue suppresses the prices on X-Men #1 and Avengers #1 as well. All three of these later #1s are relatively abundant compared to other Marvel keys.

[kimik]

I wouldn't count on an Iron Man reboot. Sure the character remains reasonably popular, but he is currently being outsold by Aquaman.

 

If Marvel Studios is going to be using that as a gauge, they're in trouble. Aquaman also currently outsells Captain America, Hulk, Thor, and Daredevil.

 

(and of course, Aquaman outsold the entire Marvel line briefly last year).

 

Marvel Studios is virtually forced to keep Iron Man viable, since they can't do Spider-Man (Sony), X-Men / Wolverine (Fox), or Fantastic Four (Fox). Aside from Avengers, IM is their most proven box office property by a significant margin.

 

If Favreau and Downey Jr. leave IM they will have to tread carefully to avoid the 90s Batflicks curse. The character may be the same, but the creative team and talent are the big difference between a great movie and a truly horrific one........

 

DC will have a similar issue on their hands with the Batman franchise again with Nolan and Bale leaving.

 

 

[jjonahjameson1]

IMO,

 

DD 1 will never hit the levels of the other major Marvel keys. Too many around. Yes, you can say the same thing about AF15 but Spiderman will ALWAYS trump DD easily in both popularity and demand. It should grow somewhat. The questions is how much?

 

TTA 27 - C'mon, it's freakin' Ant Man.

Say it with me people, Ant Man. How much higher can it possibly go?

It's got scarcity on its side and its one of the key marvel 10centers.

 

I'll buy the scarcity angle, but the character is b C-list at best

 

Fixed that for ya

 

While I'm on the subject of TTA 27, I really need the characters to be in costume to consider it their true 1st appearance and as such, I'd prefer to have TTA 35. Yeah, I'm in the minority, I know.

 

On the subject of Strange Tales 110, I like Ditko's art, and I *love* his work on Dr. Strange, but ST has so much going against it.

 

First, there's that gawd-aweful cover, with no Dr. Strange in sight and having him on the cover would certainly help the books' collectibility.

 

Second, it doesn't contain his Origin story so that also has some impact on its desirability as a 'key'.

 

Third, it's Dr. Strange. Who friggin' cares!

[gaz973]

IMO,

 

DD 1 will never hit the levels of the other major Marvel keys. Too many around. Yes, you can say the same thing about AF15 but Spiderman will ALWAYS trump DD easily in both popularity and demand. It should grow somewhat. The questions is how much?

 

TTA 27 - C'mon, it's freakin' Ant Man.

Say it with me people, Ant Man. How much higher can it possibly go?

It's got scarcity on its side and its one of the key marvel 10centers.

 

I'll buy the scarcity angle, but the character is b-list at best

 

Iron Man was b-list not long ago and all it took was a successful movie to bump not only TOS # 39 considerably but also Iron Man # 1 which is downright common into a very good seller.

 

Not too long until the Ant Man movie, at very least it's going too increase the exposure of the character. If it actually turns out to be a decent film then that could combine with the scarcity of the relevant keys to shake up their values.

[Junkdrawer]

I think from the overall hobby stand point, it's not the books that are leveling off but rather the amount of buyers of 10 - 25k books. Certainly you see the bottom rise and 2.0 - 3.5 setting GPA records. There are more average Joes willing to drop 1 - 5k on keys with eye appeal and demand. Books from 10 -25 have been frozen for a few years now

[rjpb]

I think from the overall hobby stand point, it's not the books that are leveling off but rather the amount of buyers of 10 - 25k books. Certainly you see the bottom rise and 2.0 - 3.5 setting GPA records. There are more average Joes willing to drop 1 - 5k on keys with eye appeal and demand. Books from 10 -25 have been frozen for a few years now

 

I've noticed on ebay, even with slabbed copies there is price compression in the 1.8 -3.0 range for a lot of Marvel keys. It's like there is a price of admission, and buyers aren't really paying much of a premium above that until you get into the VG grades.

[zosocane]

For the next five years. Any keys involving the avengers and the members. It's that simple. That franchise is a money making machine and people are hungry for the next movies.

 

Sorry I'm late to this thread.

 

But I agree completely with spiderphill. Avengers is now the focal point of the Marvel Studios films, and I agree about the five-year time horizon. Neither Spidey nor X-Men is the flagship movie property; instead, it's a superhero team. Never thought I would say that (and I'm a Spidey fan), but the facts don't lie: Avengers is ranked #3 on the all-time worldwide box office sales at $1.5 billion. Spidey 3 (2007) ranked #27 ($890 million) and Amazing Spider-Man at #47 ($752 million). Basically, Avengers doubled what the 2012 reboot of Spider-Man did. To wit: http://boxofficemojo.com/alltime/world/

 

Movies are getting new collectors (and speculators) into the back issue market, particularly keys. That's the new paradigm. So, despite the number of copies out there (and, yes, there are a lot), Avengers 1, TOS 39, JIM 83, Hulk 1, Avengers 4, etc. will only continue their march upward -- perhaps slower growth, but growth nonetheless. Speculation will not abate during this upcoming five-year period, with plenty of liquidity and churn of these books at auctions and at shows.

 

I see AF15 cooling off in the lower grades and perhaps flattening for a while. The prices are just unsustainable. If they get the next movie or the third movie right (e.g., a well-executed adaptation of The Night Gwen Stacy Died where the Green Goblin looks like the Green Goblin, etc.), you could see another price explosion.

[Timely]

I believe attractive copies in the 7.0 - 9.0 range have a lot of room for growth.

 

Take AF #15 for example. A 9.6 copy sold for $1.1 million, yet a 7.5 copy that has a few more spine stresses and a small crease is worth about $60K.

 

Think about it. Paying over a million dollars extra just so you don't see a small crease and a few spine crease.

[adamstrange]

They paid over a million in order to have title to "sole best copy" of the most popular superhero. I'm doubtful it would have sold for that much if there were 2 or 3 in similar condition.

[rjpb]

I believe attractive copies in the 7.0 - 9.0 range have a lot of room for growth.

 

Take AF #15 for example. A 9.6 copy sold for $1.1 million, yet a 7.5 copy that has a few more spine stresses and a small crease is worth about $60K.

 

Think about it. Paying over a million dollars extra just so you don't see a small crease and a few spine crease.

 

A 6.0 with only a few more spine ticks is only $20K. The multiples are already wider than they are for non-keys. To expound upon adamstrange's response, the market for top grade Marvel Keys, and even 9.2+ copies, is a different market than even the solid upper mid-grade. At that point you're catering to people who are can afford the nicest copy they can find, not looking to find the nicest copy they can afford.

[scooter99]

They paid over a million in order to have title to "sole best copy" of the most popular superhero. I'm doubtful it would have sold for that much if there were 2 or 3 in similar condition.

 

It will be interesting to see what a 9.6 goes for the next time one of them sells. 3 in the census now as opposed to only 1 when the 1.1M sale went down.

 

 

[Beige]

Noobie opinion - despite the high print runs,there are copies being lost every day for a myriad of reasons.

There is a finite number, and with the new "Its ok to be a geek" comic-loving generation upon us, I am sure the interest in collecting will be strong.

The people saying "But,but its freakin Ant-man" - just think, for potentially quite a few million people, the first time they see him will be in a massive,massive movie.

Then some will get the books.

What was small fry in the '60's could be huge in the next decade and vice-versa.