HG silver keys softening?

[brianchew]

good points

[passion4comics]

Prices are 110% absolutely softening with a downward trend. I’ve picked up books that a few years ago I could never even afford to rent much less buy. There are a few that defy gravity like AF15 and to me, in this market, it’s its own bubble and to me a very dangerous book to throw money at right now. I have a hard time believing that having (example) 5 top books in a 9.6 and after the press flip run we have 8 in 9.6 that the prices have been slammed because of it. As long as there are 9 people who want to buy those 8 books we have a demand over supply.

 

Look at GPA close. Dealers HATE GPA and I’ve received not so nice emails from dealers trying to charge 40% over GPA telling me not to look at GPA. Why wouldn’t I use GPA? If I threw that same book onto CL tomorrow I can expect to get about GPA. We have the collectable part of this where I’ll overpay because I want it. Then we have the realistic part where no one wants to drop 10k on a 8k book then watch it drop to a 4k book with dealer offers now in the 3k area.

 

Money is in fact moving or has moved out of the market. If you look at GPA sales you’ll see the majority of books with a lot of downward pressure. The one good thing I see with GPA is that a lot of these books have hit their resistance points. I still see a 10-20% drop on the horizon, but no one can pick the absolute bottom. Books that defy gravity, like I said above, you really need to be careful with. One of the rules of trading is don’t chase a stock. If it’s a book you’ve wanted for your entire life then go for it, but not to think that in 5-years you’re going to make a ton of money. Short term flipping (which I compare to FOREX trading) is driving a lot of books up. Others that are not the “hot book” of the year is where you want to focus. My advice, buying from dealers or not, when you buy you have to look at GPA and look beyond the hype and fluff from the sellers.

 

Most of us here are not walking around with Ipads all day and remember the days of pen and paper. We are the collectors that can afford these books. My wife asked me what a rotary phone was last night. I realized that I have more years behind me than ahead. Digital media is geared at mostly the throw away generation that doesn’t have a gasp yet on money and its value. I’m guessing that most of us here are 35+ (sorry younger guys) that have that “disposable” cash to buy these ultra-high grade books. Digital media is its own animal and we the pulp collectors will get older and become the dinosaurs and this generation may not have the love and attraction to have an actual paper copy in their hands.

 

[The-Collector]

Prices are 110% absolutely softening with a downward trend. I’ve picked up books that a few years ago I could never even afford to rent much less buy. There are a few that defy gravity like AF15 and to me, in this market, it’s its own bubble and to me a very dangerous book to throw money at right now. I have a hard time believing that having (example) 5 top books in a 9.6 and after the press flip run we have 8 in 9.6 that the prices have been slammed because of it. As long as there are 9 people who want to buy those 8 books we have a demand over supply.

 

Look at GPA close. Dealers HATE GPA and I’ve received not so nice emails from dealers trying to charge 40% over GPA telling me not to look at GPA. Why wouldn’t I use GPA? If I threw that same book onto CL tomorrow I can expect to get about GPA. We have the collectable part of this where I’ll overpay because I want it. Then we have the realistic part where no one wants to drop 10k on a 8k book then watch it drop to a 4k book with dealer offers now in the 3k area.

 

Money is in fact moving or has moved out of the market. If you look at GPA sales you’ll see the majority of books with a lot of downward pressure. The one good thing I see with GPA is that a lot of these books have hit their resistance points. I still see a 10-20% drop on the horizon, but no one can pick the absolute bottom. Books that defy gravity, like I said above, you really need to be careful with. One of the rules of trading is don’t chase a stock. If it’s a book you’ve wanted for your entire life then go for it, but not to think that in 5-years you’re going to make a ton of money. Short term flipping (which I compare to FOREX trading) is driving a lot of books up. Others that are not the “hot book” of the year is where you want to focus. My advice, buying from dealers or not, when you buy you have to look at GPA and look beyond the hype and fluff from the sellers.

 

Most of us here are not walking around with Ipads all day and remember the days of pen and paper. We are the collectors that can afford these books. My wife asked me what a rotary phone was last night. I realized that I have more years behind me than ahead. Digital media is geared at mostly the throw away generation that doesn’t have a gasp yet on money and its value. I’m guessing that most of us here are 35+ (sorry younger guys) that have that “disposable” cash to buy these ultra-high grade books. Digital media is its own animal and we the pulp collectors will get older and become the dinosaurs and this generation may not have the love and attraction to have an actual paper copy in their hands.

 

I am 24 and read this on an IPad.

[VintageComics]

Your post is not really telling the whole story.

 

First off, we are talking about keys. Comparing non keys to keys is like comparing Toyota to a go cart builder.

 

Let's start with this:

 

Prices are 110% absolutely softening with a downward trend. I’ve picked up books that a few years ago I could never even afford to rent much less buy. There are a few that defy gravity like AF15 and to me, in this market, it’s its own bubble and to me a very dangerous book to throw money at right now.

 

Which key is selling for less now than it was a few years ago? I just took a quick cursory look at GPA and while there were a few red arrows (volatility with prices dropping) all keys have been steadily rising for as long as GPA has been around.

 

a) there were more green arrows than red ones (more prices going up than down) for all the books I checked

b) even where prices dropped on a sale, they had not dropped to where prices were, say, 2 years ago.

 

This is the volatility / micro analysis that I was talking about that needs a little perspective.

 

Look at GPA close. Dealers HATE GPA and I’ve received not so nice emails from dealers trying to charge 40% over GPA telling me not to look at GPA. Why wouldn’t I use GPA? If I threw that same book onto CL tomorrow I can expect to get about GPA. We have the collectable part of this where I’ll overpay because I want it. Then we have the realistic part where no one wants to drop 10k on a 8k book then watch it drop to a 4k book with dealer offers now in the 3k area.

 

I'm a dealer and I don't hate GPA. Hate is such a strong word and one that really doesn't fit the context. I simply realize that GPA only attracts a few auction inputs and does not cover the majority of transactions, including convention sales, board sales, private sales (I sell most of my books privately and not at auction) etc. If a dealer knows they can get more for a book, why would they need to sell for less?

 

As an interesting counterpoint mentioned in another thread, the majority of collectors still use OSPG and pay OSPG so if GPA and OSPG disagree then this could be a good reason a dealer often will hold out for a price over GPA on a book.

 

 

Another reason would be if a potential buyer is twisting GPA by taking low outlier sales and trying to paint the book as dropping. I'm sure some dealers do the same with high outliers.

 

There are both collectors and dealers who can twist information to suit their needs but ultimately, as long as everyone just wants to agree on what is fair and the conversation is civil I don't understand why anyone would hate a database that gathers information. It's only one small pie slice of the information available out there.

 

Money is in fact moving or has moved out of the market. If you look at GPA sales you’ll see the majority of books with a lot of downward pressure. The one good thing I see with GPA is that a lot of these books have hit their resistance points. I still see a 10-20% drop on the horizon, but no one can pick the absolute bottom. Books that defy gravity, like I said above, you really need to be careful with. One of the rules of trading is don’t chase a stock. If it’s a book you’ve wanted for your entire life then go for it, but not to think that in 5-years you’re going to make a ton of money. Short term flipping (which I compare to FOREX trading) is driving a lot of books up. Others that are not the “hot book” of the year is where you want to focus. My advice, buying from dealers or not, when you buy you have to look at GPA and look beyond the hype and fluff from the sellers.

 

The discussion is really about key books and keys have defied gravity for over 40 years with a steady upward trend. Yes there have been some blips along the way, but ultimately that is cyclical and happens in every market.

 

Even still, while there has been a downward correction on more common books there has also been an upward correction on many of those same books. That's why I think it's important to step back and look at a wider perspective than just analyzing a small time frame.

 

Most of us here are not walking around with Ipads all day and remember the days of pen and paper. We are the collectors that can afford these books. My wife asked me what a rotary phone was last night. I realized that I have more years behind me than ahead. Digital media is geared at mostly the throw away generation that doesn’t have a gasp yet on money and its value. I’m guessing that most of us here are 35+ (sorry younger guys) that have that “disposable” cash to buy these ultra-high grade books. Digital media is its own animal and we the pulp collectors will get older and become the dinosaurs and this generation may not have the love and attraction to have an actual paper copy in their hands.

 

I am 24 and read this on an IPad.

 

I'd argue and say that most are now walking around with iPads all day - and I've said repeatedly that the next big breakthrough in technology is going to be a system that not only helps people gather information (the internet) but also a system that helps them manage it (keep it in perspective).

 

There is no doubt that the digital world is increasing, but there are also plenty of new and young buyers who want old things that they did NOT grow up with simply because they are iconic - or they just want an actual paper copy. Just ask some of the successful dealers who have brick and mortar stores around the country how digital is affecting paper comic sales...paper comic sales seem to be doing well. Those readers now are the collectors of the future, just as you and I used to read your comics off the newsstand and then had fond childhood memories about them and went back to collect them.

 

I said it earlier: The artifact always trumps the copy, because as humans we always want the real thing as opposed to a fake.

 

Just look at the revival of bands like the Stones and Zeppelin and the Who. 12-16 year old kids want these things even though they were raised on silly, manufactured pop groups that came decades after these classic rock bands had their heyday. My daughter is asking me to teach her Zeppelin rifffs. I take my kids to music class and there are 8 and 10 year old kids who want to learn 1970's rock.

 

Have you set up at a show and watched kids under the age of 18 gobble up old comic books that were printed before they were born? I have. I had a 12 or 13 year old kid argue with me in NYC about world war 2 and how the Invaders were involved. I've seen kids walk around buying old Spidey and Iron Man comics. I've seen young kids idolize old Golden Age books, just because they were old...heck that's why I started collecting Golden Age.

 

There is no black and white rule about when something's time has come. It's cyclical and there are lots and lots of new people spilling over into paper products because they were drawn in with digital media. We're living in a very interesting time and it's going to be interesting to watch it unfold.

 

While I agree that markets in general evolve as the primary demographic ages it's not all doom and gloom. The human population is increasing at a much faster rate than it is disappearing. That fact along brings in more than it removes.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[The-Collector]

Roy I agree re the information organizing tool. I think this is already happening. It is an oversimplification but many of the large cap Internet companies companies can be viewed as just long lists of well organized information with user friendly interfaces.

[Dark Knight]

Great post Roy That would have been the same input I have for key issues.

[passion4comics]

GL76 in 9.6 Hulk 181 9.8 Daredevil 1 in 9.6 those are just three keys off the top of my head that have lost 60% of their value in a few years. I think both 76 and 181 were near 30k and are now under 10k. DD1 was 67k? I think the last one sold at around 22k. Those were the last keys I looked at that were being discussed here and there on the boards. FF48 in 9.8 13k now $8k. X-Men 94 dropped too. Don't recall the number off the top of my head. Batman 171 9.6 14k to 7k. Actually a lot of Batmans are half now. These are mostly the ones I've been watching at auctions on CL and Pedigree and taking pricing notes. Early Avengers once selling for 3k and early ASM's for 3k I've picked up from $500-$1200. I'm sure there are a lot of books going up too, but not the ones I've been seeing.

 

I am running out. Good post, but I don't have the time to really digest it.

[Creeping_Death-migration]

Are the prices on high grade silver mega keys heading downwards? What do you think the outlook is for the nosebleed books?

 

Was Doug Schmell Cashing out because he saw the market heading down hill?

 

There were a number of other non-market related factors that played into that decision

 

Will the rise in equity markets mean less capital is put into collectibles?

 

I have personally been noticing plenty of new money coming into the hobby. Don't think this is a problem.

 

Have the mega keys and pressing made high grade examples too available ?

 

Yes

 

Does the rise of digital comics represent the end of funny book collecting?

 

No

 

 

 

 

So the outlook is good?

Filter is a dealer. I`ve never heard any dealer say things weren`t good, even when they really weren`t.

 

So if I can take two things away from this post its that:

 

1) All dealers are liars if it suits them to do so

 

and

 

2) you didn't actually read my post to reach that conclusion.

 

All I did was answer four questions.

 

1) I don't believe market conditions was the main factor behind Doug selling his collection when he did. I believe there were some personal reasons involved.

 

2) I've seen no evidence that the rise in equity markets has had any effect on comic book collecting whatsoever, and have sold some big books to "new" money in recent months.

 

3) I do think the widespread ability to press books is making mega keys too available in high grade.

 

4) and I don't think digital comic collecting is going to destroy the hobby.

 

But then again, I'm a dealer so you probably shouldn't trust me...

 

I agree with you on almost everything you stated, but the first one. And I will not disagree because I do not know who he is. I would have assumed he sold his collection because he wanted the $$.

 

Latest Scandal! Comic Book Dealer Disbarred As Lawyer!!!!

[The-Collector]

Are the prices on high grade silver mega keys heading downwards? What do you think the outlook is for the nosebleed books?

 

Was Doug Schmell Cashing out because he saw the market heading down hill?

 

There were a number of other non-market related factors that played into that decision

 

Will the rise in equity markets mean less capital is put into collectibles?

 

I have personally been noticing plenty of new money coming into the hobby. Don't think this is a problem.

 

Have the mega keys and pressing made high grade examples too available ?

 

Yes

 

Does the rise of digital comics represent the end of funny book collecting?

 

No

 

 

 

 

So the outlook is good?

Filter is a dealer. I`ve never heard any dealer say things weren`t good, even when they really weren`t.

 

So if I can take two things away from this post its that:

 

1) All dealers are liars if it suits them to do so

 

and

 

2) you didn't actually read my post to reach that conclusion.

 

All I did was answer four questions.

 

1) I don't believe market conditions was the main factor behind Doug selling his collection when he did. I believe there were some personal reasons involved.

 

2) I've seen no evidence that the rise in equity markets has had any effect on comic book collecting whatsoever, and have sold some big books to "new" money in recent months.

 

3) I do think the widespread ability to press books is making mega keys too available in high grade.

 

4) and I don't think digital comic collecting is going to destroy the hobby.

 

But then again, I'm a dealer so you probably shouldn't trust me...

 

I agree with you on almost everything you stated, but the first one. And I will not disagree because I do not know who he is. I would have assumed he sold his collection because he wanted the $$.

 

Latest Scandal! Comic Book Dealer Disbarred As Lawyer!!!!

 

Did you sign up just to post that? Seems an odd first post.

[blazingbob]

With the exception of a couple many of the keys you are citing were common before CGC opened the doors.

 

DD #1 was the most common key submitted the day CGC opened the doors.

 

Do I have to mention how common Hulk #181 is? Add in a loose period of grading and all the $4500 9.6's are pressed to see if they can turn into a $20K 9.8. Increase the number and as buyer demand gets satisfied the price goes down.

 

X-Men #94 - again, loose grading more 9.6 and 9.8's show up. Still a tough book in my opinion.

 

Green lantern #76 - Frankly shouldn't have skyrocketed like it did in the first place. Movie came out and it sucked. Great cover but remind me again why I should pay goofy money for it again.

 

FF #48 - the Hulk #181 of the Silver age. One of the MOST common keys and if anybody remembers the Phil Seuling shows should remember that Carbo had Stacks of these in high grade on his table. You could pick the best one out of the stack.

 

Avengers #4 - 9.2's to 9.4's, 9.6's to 9.8 and the same soft grading theme applies. Exhaust what I refer to as the "A" list buyers and you are now into the guy who will buy one at a price he can afford. No reserve and there you go, new bottom.

 

Batman #171 - Riddler. Frankly not what I would exactly call a "A lister villain" but hey to me it is a tough book. Not sure how many 9.6 chasers there are out there for this book but again if grading standards loosen another one pops up for sale.

[Creeping_Death-migration]

Are the prices on high grade silver mega keys heading downwards? What do you think the outlook is for the nosebleed books?

 

Was Doug Schmell Cashing out because he saw the market heading down hill?

 

There were a number of other non-market related factors that played into that decision

 

Will the rise in equity markets mean less capital is put into collectibles?

 

I have personally been noticing plenty of new money coming into the hobby. Don't think this is a problem.

 

Have the mega keys and pressing made high grade examples too available ?

 

Yes

 

Does the rise of digital comics represent the end of funny book collecting?

 

No

 

 

 

 

So the outlook is good?

Filter is a dealer. I`ve never heard any dealer say things weren`t good, even when they really weren`t.

 

So if I can take two things away from this post its that:

 

1) All dealers are liars if it suits them to do so

 

and

 

2) you didn't actually read my post to reach that conclusion.

 

All I did was answer four questions.

 

1) I don't believe market conditions was the main factor behind Doug selling his collection when he did. I believe there were some personal reasons involved.

 

2) I've seen no evidence that the rise in equity markets has had any effect on comic book collecting whatsoever, and have sold some big books to "new" money in recent months.

 

3) I do think the widespread ability to press books is making mega keys too available in high grade.

 

4) and I don't think digital comic collecting is going to destroy the hobby.

 

But then again, I'm a dealer so you probably shouldn't trust me...

 

I agree with you on almost everything you stated, but the first one. And I will not disagree because I do not know who he is. I would have assumed he sold his collection because he wanted the $$.

 

Latest Scandal! Comic Book Dealer Disbarred As Lawyer!!!!

 

Did you sign up just to post that?

 

Nope.

[paperheart]

Are the prices on high grade silver mega keys heading downwards? What do you think the outlook is for the nosebleed books?

 

Was Doug Schmell Cashing out because he saw the market heading down hill?

 

There were a number of other non-market related factors that played into that decision

 

Will the rise in equity markets mean less capital is put into collectibles?

 

I have personally been noticing plenty of new money coming into the hobby. Don't think this is a problem.

 

Have the mega keys and pressing made high grade examples too available ?

 

Yes

 

Does the rise of digital comics represent the end of funny book collecting?

 

No

 

 

 

 

So the outlook is good?

Filter is a dealer. I`ve never heard any dealer say things weren`t good, even when they really weren`t.

 

So if I can take two things away from this post its that:

 

1) All dealers are liars if it suits them to do so

 

and

 

2) you didn't actually read my post to reach that conclusion.

 

All I did was answer four questions.

 

1) I don't believe market conditions was the main factor behind Doug selling his collection when he did. I believe there were some personal reasons involved.

 

2) I've seen no evidence that the rise in equity markets has had any effect on comic book collecting whatsoever, and have sold some big books to "new" money in recent months.

 

3) I do think the widespread ability to press books is making mega keys too available in high grade.

 

4) and I don't think digital comic collecting is going to destroy the hobby.

 

But then again, I'm a dealer so you probably shouldn't trust me...

 

I agree with you on almost everything you stated, but the first one. And I will not disagree because I do not know who he is. I would have assumed he sold his collection because he wanted the $$.

 

Latest Scandal! Comic Book Dealer Disbarred As Lawyer!!!!

 

Did you sign up this time just to post that? Seems an odd first post.

[sufunk]

I guess you could say they are "softening" but imo its more like coming back to reality. When i look at some of the sales from 2008-2009 on gpa, it boggles the mind. There was no possible way the books were worth the money they were getting. a few years ago. 25k for a 9.8 Avengers 57?!? Has there EVER been an auction without like 3 HG Avengers 57's in it? Prices now have come back down more towards what they should have been all along.

 

To me, it isn't a sign of doom and gloom for comics but actually healthy for our hobby long term unlike the crazy money being thrown around a few years ago.

[blazingbob]

I guess we should go back to the 2X guide for 9.2's, 4X for 9.4's, 6X for 9.6's and 15X for 9.8's.

 

To think those were the pioneer days.

 

Those were the days my friend, I think they'll never end.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gVdOQvx379Y

[sufunk]

I guess we should go back to the 2X guide for 9.2's, 4X for 9.4's, 6X for 9.6's and 15X for 9.8's.

 

To think those were the pioneer days.

 

Those were the days my friend, I think they'll never end.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gVdOQvx379Y

 

For me gpa is the gold standard. Granted, I have SHATTERED gpa numbers a few times for books I really wanted like an Avengers Ped that I can't find another copy of but most times I'm going by the gpa numbers. Few things annoy me more than a dealer trying to justify to me asking way, way, WAY more than gpa for some common SA book because of some "private" sale they heard about from god knows where.

[blazingbob]

So a sale from my website would qualify as "heard from God knows where" type of sale since I don't report to GPA?

 

[sufunk]

So a sale from my website would qualify as "heard from God knows where" type of sale since I don't report to GPA?

 

 

I've bought from you more than a few times and have never seen you asking way over gpa for a common book. More often than not i'm sprinting to buy it before someone else does at that price on your site. A lot of your books are on consignment also i believe and even still their prices are usually right in line with gpa from what i've always seen.

 

Theres a reason you are usually the 1st name i reference when i am badmouthing what i consider bad sellers and giving examples of GREAT sellers (thumbs u

[jimjum12]

...... I don't see that FF 5 on your site "softening" anytime soon. April 12 is my sobreity date and I've wanted a 5 with that Date stamp for a long time..... maybe it's time for me to pick up a second job..... I sold the car a LONG time ago ....GOD BLESS...

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus) (thumbs u

[vaillant]

As far as the "paper vs. digital" dabate I would repeat for the nth time what i always said: that they aren’t two comparable things. Digital access is useful, no matter if we have collectors or not, and a book offer a reading means (and experience) that data organized on a screen won’t offer, because of the very nature of electronically stored information.

 

And Roy is absolutely right in speaking of information and "logistics": it’s not called "informatics" for nothing, but we are really getting too dependent on it (and I am not talking of this kind of worldwide communication on a forum or a network, which remains the equivalent of a phone call).

 

Said this, someone too bored with paper should really consider sending me a lowgrade copy of FF #1 as a gift…

[namisgr]

The original post in this thread asked about mega-keys. Based on the available GPA data and current asking prices from dealer websites, I don't know of any SA Marvel mega-keys with softening prices. I'm not considering the 9.4-9.8 copies, which have always had prices dictated more by insanity than traditional market forces, but the vast majority of copies, which fail to obtain those lofty grades.