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What will drive the NEXT big speculation boom?

Started by jools&jim,

72 posts in this topic

jools&jim

jools&jim

Posted
Posted

 

"THE HOTTEST BOOK..." thread going on here in General today got me to thinking about other similar "boom/chase eras" in the history of comics speculation, the books which defined those periods, and where we may be headed next.

 

Here are a few obvious examples from the past 40 years or so:

 

• The "pre-Direct Market" period of the late '60s and early '70s, which produced the so-called "low distribution" comics (Silver Surfer #4, Conan #3), plus "first issue/first appearance" speculation on (then) new books like Howard the Duck #1.

 

• The b&w/indie boom of the '80s, which had collectors chasing the next funky TMNT-clone mega hit.

 

• The foil/variant/polybagged/home-shopping feeding frenzies of the '90s.

 

Back in the early "wild west" days of eBay, I also remember dealers talking about "eBay books": comics which (pre-eBay) were widely regarded as undesirable, unremarkable, and/or holding little value except possibly to a small niche of collectors, but which then began transacting briskly on eBay for multiples of Guide: e.g., various DC 100-pagers, obscure BA humor titles, oddball genre comics (romance, western), etc., etc.

 

The CGC-era then produced "grade/number" chasing, followed closely by this current period of movie-driven buying, which seems to be just about as frenzied as any of our hobby's previous infatuations with fast money and the "next big thing".

 

So…now, with Hollywood providing "insider news" for the 24/7 information age and the resultant skyrocketing prices for books featuring B/C/D-list characters, have we finally reached the absurdist zenith of comics speculation?

 

Given our history, and as long as the world economy doesn't collapse (in which case who cares?), I'd say that there are still heights to be scaled, but if so, what will motivate the chase?

 

If I had to guess, I'd say the next phase may have something to do with the international marketplace.

 

Or not…

 

Any other ideas?

 

 

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1Cool

1Cool

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Great topic. In almost every one of the cases listed the actual quality of the books was not considered when people went hog wild on a book. Mutant Ninja Squirrels stunk but it was popular since the last couple were popular so the next one must be cool. The 90s glut was all about perceived popularity of books and getting the next cool cover but the actual art and stories were carp. I have to respect the current modern book craze since most of the books are quality books with strong art and stories.

 

The sudden switch to movie 1st appearances doesn't care about the quality of the books but instead its all about getting the hot book. In fact, a lot of the former hot books like the Byrne X-Men seem to be dropping like rocks even though the books are fantastic. Following these trends it make sense that the next hottest trend will be blue colored books. No reason other than the color blue is cool.

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1Cool

1Cool

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DC Silver Age 2nd tier keys seem very cheap to me. I think their time is coming.

 

You could be completely right but I have a hard time imagining a huge group of people searching for Aquaman books unless he is in a cool new movie. B list DC books are cheap for a reason - DC stinks.

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Dr. Balls

Dr. Balls

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So…now, with Hollywood providing "insider news" for the 24/7 information age and the resultant skyrocketing prices for books featuring B/C/D-list characters, have we finally reached the absurdist zenith of comics speculation?

 

I don't think that's absurd. In actuality, I think comic collectors should thank Hollywood for inadvertently creating a huge demand for key issues - because without those films and tv shows, we would be having a hard time converting new generations of kids into the collectibility of comic books. Sustaining the huge cottage industry of comics relies on generating new collectors - not just readers.

 

I'd rather see back issues be hyped and glorified than comic shops inundated with worthless drek because the industry needs to rake in huge profits at the expense of independent business owners like what happened in the 90's.

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jsilverjanet

jsilverjanet

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So…now, with Hollywood providing "insider news" for the 24/7 information age and the resultant skyrocketing prices for books featuring B/C/D-list characters, have we finally reached the absurdist zenith of comics speculation?

 

I don't think that's absurd. In actuality, I think comic collectors should thank Hollywood for inadvertently creating a huge demand for key issues - because without those films and tv shows, we would be having a hard time converting new generations of kids into the collectibility of comic books. Sustaining the huge cottage industry of comics relies on generating new collectors - not just readers.

 

I'd rather see back issues be hyped and glorified than comic shops inundated with worthless drek because the industry needs to rake in huge profits at the expense of independent business owners like what happened in the 90's.

 

Would a good example of a hobby not having new "collectors" is baseball/sports cards. I remember growing up how this was a better investment (my perception may be wrong) but it doesn't appear to be at the same level of comics anymore.

 

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jools&jim

jools&jim

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MONEY.

 

This. Of course. And, after all, gambling is kinda fun, no matter what form it takes.

 

But...what I'm really talking about here are not "undervalued" books, necessarily, but rather the underlying systemic conditions which, within a relatively short period of time, drive people to pay more than what had been the going rate for certain items, and/or make people believe that they can get more than what had been the going rate for certain items.

 

For example:

 

• In the late '60s and early '70s, new comics being sold by dealers for more than cover price (not a common practice back then) was concurrent with the emergence of a better informed, better organized, and increasingly older fan-base, and the first appearance of the Overstreet Guide in 1970, which introduced the concept of "grading" to a wide audience, and helped to legitimize and commodify comics as "collectibles" with value independent of their primary purpose (i.e., reading material, entertainment).

 

• By the mid-1980s, fans and collectors patronized a firmly established Direct Market (owned and operated by fans and collectors), without which the b&w boom simply could not have happened.

 

• In the 1990s, the gimmick/event-driven fanboy frenzies were the result of naked hucksterism on the part of publishers to bolster flagging sales of a failing product, aided and abetted (again) by Direct Market distribution, and buyers who had apparently forgotten, or had never learned, that there's one born every minute.

 

• The eBay era helped to revise our ideas of scarcity and rarity, expanded the marketplace for all kinds of material, and made it easier than ever before for every collector to operate as a dealer.

 

• The CGC era further shifted the focus from content to condition, and gave "grade chasing" numerical respectability.

 

• And today...movie hype has performed the ultimate sleight-of-hand by making "Rocket Raccoon" a household name, at least amongst households with fan-people like us plugged in to the CGC boards.

 

Does that make any sense? Probably not...

 

 

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Prince Namor

Prince Namor

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DC Silver Age 2nd tier keys seem very cheap to me. I think their time is coming.

 

You could be completely right but I have a hard time imagining a huge group of people searching for Aquaman books unless he is in a cool new movie. B list DC books are cheap for a reason - DC stinks.

 

Look at Ant-Man though!

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miraclemet

miraclemet

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So maybe it wont be next, but at some point in the future I think we'll see an intersection of two current trends.

 

1. Rise (re-rise?) of self-publishing. Selfpublishing has been around for a long time but with the success of Kickstarter ideas are easier to support and get published with some amount of promotion. These self published books are in relatively low print runs and are distributed all over the word (based on the who supported it).

 

2. Hollywood (TV and Movies) continues to plumb the comics industry for IP sources for their movies.

 

What happens when we start to see a few kickstarter books get turned into successful TV or movie franchises? The source matierial will be low numbers with sporatic distribution, and thus some big $$ returns for collectors who want to get in.

 

The closest recent example would be 6th Gun hype, which had a decent (Oni) distributor and didnt actually get a TV deal.

 

I could see some successes lead to comic collectors (or even shops) star to become supporters of kickstarter projects solely for speculation purposes.

 

 

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jsilverjanet

jsilverjanet

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So maybe it wont be next, but at some point in the future I think we'll see an intersection of two current trends.

 

1. Rise (re-rise?) of self-publishing. Selfpublishing has been around for a long time but with the success of Kickstarter ideas are easier to support and get published with some amount of promotion. These self published books are in relatively low print runs and are distributed all over the word (based on the who supported it).

 

2. Hollywood (TV and Movies) continues to plumb the comics industry for IP sources for their movies.

 

What happens when we start to see a few kickstarter books get turned into successful TV or movie franchises? The source matierial will be low numbers with sporatic distribution, and thus some big $$ returns for collectors who want to get in.

 

The closest recent example would be 6th Gun hype, which had a decent (Oni) distributor and didnt actually get a TV deal.

 

I could see some successes lead to comic collectors (or even shops) star to become supporters of kickstarter projects solely for speculation purposes.

 

The unfortunate passing of Stan Lee will cause a huge demand for his numerous signed marvel books and memorabilia.

 

I agree on both of these.

 

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