Gerber Scarcity in the Internet Age 1 1

[sundrycollect]

Hi Folks...after my original post and your responses, I decided to make another plot and see if it was all informative. I took Detective 1-40 and plotted total CGC graded copies (all books...universal, restored, qualified, etc.) along with the Gerber Scarcity value. See the result below.

 

 

To be honest...I am not sure this says anything meaningful. I had suggested before that I thought the issues prior to 27 were not graded as often as those after 27. This data clearly shows that to be true. But it's hard make the conclusion that those issues are actually rarer with a lot of confidence. For the really early issues, there may not be that many raw books out there...or maybe there are. It's hard to say. As an example, Gerber says that issue 2 and 3 are really scarce...and that agrees with the CGC data to some extent. But the other books don't seem to correlate very well with that idea. (Maybe 24...but that would be it)

 

Anyway...just thought I would throw this out there. I will put it up on my blog for reference as well.

 

Cheers...

 

 

Edited October 30, 2013 by sundrycollect

[wolverine94]

I find Whipples Rarity Scale way better, and much easier for people to related to the Whipples Rarity Scale

 

Values here are much more accurate than Gerbers scale

[valiantman]

I find Whipples Rarity Scale way better, and much easier for people to related to the Whipples Rarity Scale

 

Values here are much more accurate than Gerbers scale

 

It took a bit to find it, but I think I'm copying the right info:

 

Whipples Rarity Scale

Comic Book Rarity Scale and Guide

Whipple`s Comic Book Rarity Scale

Rarity Value # of issues known

R10 -------------- Unique ------------------------------ 1

R9.9 ------------- Extremely Rare ---------------------- 2 - 10

R9.8 ------------- Very Rare --------------------------- 11- 25

R9.6 ------------- Rare ----------------------------------26 - 50

R9.4 ------------- Very Scarce ------------------------- 51 - 100

R9.2 ------------- Scarce ------------------------------- 101 - 200

R9.0 ------------- Scarce Minus ------------------------ 201 - 300

R8.5 ------------- Very uncommon to scarce ----------- 301 - 350

R8.0 ------------- Very uncommon to scarce ----------- 351 - 400

R7.5 ------------- Very uncommon -------------------- 401 - 600

R7.0 ------------- Very uncommon -------------------- 601 - 800

R6.5 ------------- Uncommon -------------------------- 801 - 1050

R6.0 ------------- Uncommon -------------------------- 1051 -1350

R5.5 ------------- Uncommon -------------------------- 1351 - 1600

R5.0 ------------- Uncommon Minus ------------------- 1601 - 2000

R4.5 ------------- Uncommon Minus ------------------- 2001 - 2400

R4.0-------------- Slightly uncommon------------------ 2401 - 4000

R3.5 ------------- Slightly uncommon ----------------- 4001 - 5600

R3.0 ------------- Slightly uncommon ----------------- 5601 - 7200

R2.5 ------------- Slightly uncommon to common ---- 7201 - 14800

R2.0 ------------- Slightly uncommon to common ---- 14801 - 22400

R1.5 ------------- Slightly uncommon to common ---- 22401 - 30000

R1.0 - R0 ------- Virtually Common ------------------- 30001 & up

[porcupine48]

[Wipple]

I find Whipples Rarity Scale way better, and much easier for people to related to the Whipples Rarity Scale

 

Values here are much more accurate than Gerbers scale

 

[Hudson]

This is the first I have heard of the Whipples Rarity Scale. Interesting. Have "Whipple Rarity" values actually been assigned to books? If so, where would I find this data?

 

As for how many copies of a book exist, there are many problems with that.

 

1) If we look at CGC books, there is no telling how many books have been cracked out and resubmitted (thus increasing the perceived number in existence).

 

2) There are collectors out there (like me) who prefer our books raw (regardless of how valuable it is). Those collectors do not submit their books to CGC and thus lowering the perceived number.

 

As for how many AC1s are out there. The best person to ask is Wayne-Tec. He keeps a pretty good record of every copy he becomes aware of. I seem to recall him putting the number (in a thread some months back) somewhere around 100, but I could be mistaken.

[Sqeggs]

This is the first I have heard of the Whipples Rarity Scale. Interesting. Have "Whipple Rarity" values actually been assigned to books? If so, where would I find this data?

 

As for how many copies of a book exist, there are many problems with that.

 

1) If we look at CGC books, there is no telling how many books have been cracked out and resubmitted (thus increasing the perceived number in existence).

 

2) There are collectors out there (like me) who prefer our books raw (regardless of how valuable it is). Those collectors do not submit their books to CGC and thus lowering the perceived number.

 

As for how many AC1s are out there. The best person to ask is Wayne-Tec. He keeps a pretty good record of every copy he becomes aware of. I seem to recall him putting the number (in a thread some months back) somewhere around 100, but I could be mistaken.

 

That's the key thing. I'm not sure what the point of developing such a finely calibrated rarity scale is if the values aren't actually assigned to books. That's what made the Gerber scale interesting, even though it's apparent that it's not entirely accurate.

[valiantman]

Looking at the Overstreet Top 100 Golden Age books, the Gerber Scarcity Index, and the CGC Census:

 

Gerber 4 --- 2 books, 82.5 copies average in CGC Census

Gerber 5 --- 27 books, 82.7 copies average

Gerber 6 --- 35 books, 51.7 copies average

Gerber 7 --- 19 books, 38.9 copies average

Gerber 8 --- 8 books, 31.8 copies average

Gerber 9 --- 4 books, 15 copies average

Gerber 10 --- 1 book, 6 copies

[Gatsby77]

There's also the weird "unintended consequences" of the Gerber scale, which meant that books earmarked as 7 or higher back in 1990-1991 are actually more-readily cared for (and thus seen today) than some books considered more "common" by Gerber.

 

Examples of this from Exciting Comics:

 

# 28 was an 8 (Gerber No Show).

 

It's actually a bit easier to find than 27, 29 or 30.

 

This is born out by the census, too, with twice as many slabbed copies of 28 as those other issues.

 

My guess is because it was a Gerber No-Show, so dealers were more likely to pay attention to it as a collectible than the surrounding issues.

 

I'm sure this held true for other titles as well.

[Sqeggs]

There's also the weird "unintended consequences" of the Gerber scale, which meant that books earmarked as 7 or higher back in 1990-1991 are actually more-readily cared for (and thus seen today) than some books considered more "common" by Gerber.

 

Examples of this from Exciting Comics:

 

# 28 was an 8 (Gerber No Show).

 

It's actually a bit easier to find than 27, 29 or 30.

 

This is born out by the census, too, with twice as many slabbed copies of 28 as those other issues.

 

My guess is because it was a Gerber No-Show, so dealers were more likely to pay attention to it as a collectible than the surrounding issues.

 

I'm sure this held true for other titles as well.

 

Michelle Nolan had some interesting articles (I think she wrote more than one) evaluating how accurate the Gerber ratings are, given what we know now. Overall, I think she concluded that they hold up reasonably well, although there are some big misses.

[paqart]

On 11/4/2016 at 7:31 PM, valiantman said:

 

It took a bit to find it, but I think I'm copying the right info:

 

Whipples Rarity Scale

Comic Book Rarity Scale and Guide

Whipple`s Comic Book Rarity Scale

Rarity Value # of issues known

R10 -------------- Unique ------------------------------ 1

R9.9 ------------- Extremely Rare ---------------------- 2 - 10

R9.8 ------------- Very Rare --------------------------- 11- 25

R9.6 ------------- Rare ----------------------------------26 - 50

R9.4 ------------- Very Scarce ------------------------- 51 - 100

R9.2 ------------- Scarce ------------------------------- 101 - 200

R9.0 ------------- Scarce Minus ------------------------ 201 - 300

R8.5 ------------- Very uncommon to scarce ----------- 301 - 350

R8.0 ------------- Very uncommon to scarce ----------- 351 - 400

R7.5 ------------- Very uncommon -------------------- 401 - 600

R7.0 ------------- Very uncommon -------------------- 601 - 800

R6.5 ------------- Uncommon -------------------------- 801 - 1050

R6.0 ------------- Uncommon -------------------------- 1051 -1350

R5.5 ------------- Uncommon -------------------------- 1351 - 1600

R5.0 ------------- Uncommon Minus ------------------- 1601 - 2000

R4.5 ------------- Uncommon Minus ------------------- 2001 - 2400

R4.0-------------- Slightly uncommon------------------ 2401 - 4000

R3.5 ------------- Slightly uncommon ----------------- 4001 - 5600

R3.0 ------------- Slightly uncommon ----------------- 5601 - 7200

R2.5 ------------- Slightly uncommon to common ---- 7201 - 14800

R2.0 ------------- Slightly uncommon to common ---- 14801 - 22400

R1.5 ------------- Slightly uncommon to common ---- 22401 - 30000

R1.0 - R0 ------- Virtually Common ------------------- 30001 & up

The only problem I have with this scale is that it doesn't take into account demand and print runs. Almost the entire print run of many modern Marvel and DC comics would give them a rarity value of 2.0-3.0 (thinking of direct edition Supergirl/2005 and Catwoman/2002) yet those comics are very easy to find. Try finding the newsstand editions, and it's a completely different story. I've been trying to make a newsstand run of both titles for the last two years but haven't seen most of the needed issues offered for sale anywhere at any price. Catwoman is particularly hard to find. Out of 84 issues, I've passed on 5 due to price or condition but bought every other issue I found. The result is that I now own about 15 issues of that run, or about 20%. If I wanted a set of direct editions, I could buy that today, possibly all at once from one seller. 

Based on published estimates of print runs and the proportion of newsstand editions in various years, most newsstand editions from Marvel or DC post-1999 would be rated somewhere in the 5.0-6.5 range on this scale. Based on my experience trying to find these comics, their availability indicates much higher rarity scores, in the range of 8.0-9.0 or higher. It's hard to know without more data. For instance, I haven't seen any copies of Catwoman #1 (2002) newsstand edition offered for sale on eBay in the last 18 months. I also haven't seen any copies on HipComic, at the NYCC, or at any local dealers. Mile High Comics, who seem to have everything, don't have it, nor have they for the entire time I've been looking. 

According to Comichron, approximately 49,413 copies of Catwoman #1 were distributed by Diamond. If one accepts the NS/Direct ratios published elsewhere, there should be around 4,297 NS copies out there to be found. And yet, so far I have seen exactly zero copies. Maybe collectors are holding onto these, but 1) NS comics tended to be bought by non-collectors, 2) there are plenty of copies of the direct edition available at any time of the day on eBay. If the directs are worth selling, then so are the newsstands. 

Another interesting comic is 2008's Hulk #1. It was the top seller for the month it came out, January 2008, and had a fairly high estimated print run of 133,895 copies. That would suggest an additional 5,579 newsstand copies were printed. I've seen about 15 of these for sale (and bought one) over the past two years, one of which is available on eBay right not for just under ten grand. More often, it sells for between $300-$500.

The Catwoman #1 and Hulk #1 should be about equally available based on print run estimates combined with published estimates of newsstand/direct ratios. The Catwoman had a much lower overall print run but should have had a higher proportion of NS copies vs. Direct copies because it was published in 2002, not 2008, when the number of newsstand editions supposedly dropped sharply. And yet, trying to find these myself tells me that the Hulk #1 can be had in any given month (though not on any given day), but the Catwoman #1 still hasn't appeared once. On that basis, I would give the Catwoman a presumed scarcity rating of 9.0+, and the Hulk a rating of 8-8.5.

Another comic for comparison, this one from the Golden Age, Exciting Comics #30. I just checked eBay and found two copies immediately: https://www.ebay.com/sch/i.html?_from=R40&_trksid=p2047675.m570.l1313&_nkw="exciting+comics"+30&_sacat=0 

There were five copies of WDC&S 31: https://www.ebay.com/sch/66/i.html?_from=R40&_nkw=walt+disney's+comics+%26+stories+31&LH_TitleDesc=0

A search for "catwoman 2002 newsstand" (without quotes) yielded 15 results, one copy each of fifteen issues from the run. There were no copies of #1 or the majority of the rest of the series. I checked without the word "newsstand" but didn't find any listings that didn't show up in the newsstand search. All but one of the fifteen comics were listed by Mile High Comics.

Because eBay is such a huge aggregator of comic book sales, it makes sense to me to have an eBay scarcity index. That would be time-consuming to generate but it could be done and the data is readily available.

Based on the searches I've done for specific comics, there are a lot of GA comics on the Gerber scale that are easier to find than many modern newsstands.

[1950's war comics]

20 hours ago, paqart said:

The only problem I have with this scale is that it doesn't take into account demand and print runs.

thanks for a great post