Is there a general rule of thumb when estimating the amount of existing copies?

[Cosmic Boy]

Calling all great Golden Age minds...

 

Is there a general rule of thumb when estimating the amount of existing copies of Golden Age books in collector's circulation based off the CGC census?

 

Something like Census x10? Less? More?

 

Does Gerber still publish a scarcity index?

 

Any thoughts?

[comicjack]

Not sure i have a mind left a good source to ask about existing copies would be

the very keen about the market (Rick) Gator he has a good handle on that

[Hamlet]

I don't think a simple rule of thumb is going to work very well. There are a lot of books that it doesn't make financial sense to slab, so they are going to be under-represented in the census.

 

I'm pretty sure that a much larger percentage of Action 1s are slabbed than say Captain Midnight 44.

 

[Cat-Man_America]

Not sure i have a mind left a good source to ask about existing copies would be

the very keen about the market (Rick) Gator he has a good handle on that

 

 

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

 

 

+1 > [font:Times New Roman] True, Gator's crystal ball trumps the tea leaves of most forum sooth-sayers. [/font] (thumbs u

[Cosmic Boy]

Very good point, but for the sake of argument, let's say we're talking about Golden Age books that have a high slabbing rate. Superhero DCs and Timelys for example. Surely, the amount of slabbed copies has to be somewhat representative of the overall population, right?

 

For example: Both Action #1 and 'Tec #27 have 59 slabbed copies (I believe), and reasonably speaking should be getting slabbed at the same rate. Is there a best guess formula for calculating total circulated copies in the hands of collectors?

 

x5? Are there roughly 295 copies floating around of each? How many collectors have an Action #1 or 'Tec #27 and don't end up getting it slabbed? Does CGC census really mean anything in regards to rarity?

[Rip]

Sure the CGC census does mean something but sometimes rarity is judged on what you have seen over the years for sale. There is no really good X number, its just and estimate based on experience + CGC census.

[Marvel Zombie]

Very good point, but for the sake of argument, let's say we're talking about Golden Age books that have a high slabbing rate. Superhero DCs and Timelys for example. Surely, the amount of slabbed copies has to be somewhat representative of the overall population, right?

 

For example: Both Action #1 and 'Tec #27 have 59 slabbed copies (I believe), and reasonably speaking should be getting slabbed at the same rate. Is there a best guess formula for calculating total circulated copies in the hands of collectors?

 

x5? Are there roughly 295 copies floating around of each? How many collectors have an Action #1 or 'Tec #27 and don't end up getting it slabbed? Does CGC census really mean anything in regards to rarity?

 

I would guess that there is about 100 copies of each of 'the big two'

[sfcityduck]

Surely, the amount of slabbed copies has to be somewhat representative of the overall population, right?

 

For example: Both Action #1 and 'Tec #27 have 59 slabbed copies (I believe), and reasonably speaking should be getting slabbed at the same rate. Is there a best guess formula for calculating total circulated copies in the hands of collectors?

 

x5? Are there roughly 295 copies floating around of each? How many collectors have an Action #1 or 'Tec #27 and don't end up getting it slabbed? Does CGC census really mean anything in regards to rarity?

 

Here's the problem with what you are trying to do here:

 

There is no logical reason to think that Action 1 and D27 would be slabbed in the same percentage to their general population because we are talking about the decision of individual owners. There is little reason to slab a comic book unless you intend to sell it. Slabbing costs money, you can't read the comic, and it requires disclosure of the existence of the comic. Consequently, there are many copies of Action 1 and D27 which have not been slabbed because they are owned by collectors who bought before CGC came into vogue and who hold for the long term.

 

Obvious examples of these books include the Mile High Action 1 (bought in 1984 and never slabbed) and the Allentown D27 (bought 15+ years ago and never slabbed), probably the two most expensive comics in the world. Numerous other examples come quickly to mind, some seen on this board, such as Bangzoom's D27 (bought in the 70s and not slabbed). Many people on these boards probably know owners of unslabbed Action 1 or D27s. I do.

 

Complicating matters, some Action 1 and D27s have been slabbed with other graders, such as the PGX 9.0® copy of Action 1 which was originaly bought back in 1981 and resides with the same owner, and don't show up on the CGC census although they have been slabbed.

 

I think the CGC census is useful to give you a good general idea of what Action 1 and D27s have come to market since the ascendence of CGC and their condition. Very few Action 1 and D27s seem to sell without passing through CGC. So the census would seem useful to show relative scarcity in the marketplace. But overall scarcity? That is a different cup fo tea.

[catrick339]

There are probably a LOT of GA keys still hiding in long-time collectors' holdings, many of which will be surfacing over the next 10 - 15 years as they pass away and the collections are broken up.

 

A friend of mine has a Superman 1 that has been in his possession since 1965, when he bought it at the first Detroit comic book show, when he bought it for the princely sum of three bucks....and got slapped by a couple dealers for "driving up the price of old comics"

 

I'm sure there are dozens, maybe hundreds, of similar stories out there.

[G.A.tor]

There is no general rule of thumb that is applicable. Have to cobble together info from a myriad of sources to make an educated "guess".... And even then it is just a guess.

 

And to whomever thinks there are only 100 action 1s or detective 27s out there. They are way off (thumbs u

[Timely]

I always felt there were between 250-400 copies of Action #1.

[G.A.tor]

I always felt there were between 250-400 copies of Action #1.

that would be closer to my estimate as well (upper end) (thumbs u

[Sqeggs]

There are probably a LOT of GA keys still hiding in long-time collectors' holdings, many of which will be surfacing over the next 10 - 15 years as they pass away and the collections are broken up.

 

A friend of mine has a Superman 1 that has been in his possession since 1965, when he bought it at the first Detroit comic book show, when he bought it for the princely sum of three bucks....and got slapped by a couple dealers for "driving up the price of old comics"

 

I'm sure there are dozens, maybe hundreds, of similar stories out there.

 

I remember a couple of years after that a Superman 1 selling for $20, I think it was -- maybe it was a little more. Some people groaned that this was the beginning of the end of the hobby. Who would want to collect books unless they could hope to assemble complete runs? And now the prices of some key books were rising above where the average Joe could afford them.

[G.A.tor]

There are probably a LOT of GA keys still hiding in long-time collectors' holdings, many of which will be surfacing over the next 10 - 15 years as they pass away and the collections are broken up.

 

A friend of mine has a Superman 1 that has been in his possession since 1965, when he bought it at the first Detroit comic book show, when he bought it for the princely sum of three bucks....and got slapped by a couple dealers for "driving up the price of old comics"

 

I'm sure there are dozens, maybe hundreds, of similar stories out there.

 

I remember a couple of years after that a Superman 1 selling for $20, I think it was -- maybe it was a little more. Some people groaned that this was the beginning of the end of the hobby. Who would want to collect books unless they could hope to assemble complete runs? And now the prices of some key books were rising above where the average Joe could afford them.

this post says one thing to me.... sqeggs is

[Bookery]

There are probably a LOT of GA keys still hiding in long-time collectors' holdings, many of which will be surfacing over the next 10 - 15 years as they pass away and the collections are broken up.

 

A friend of mine has a Superman 1 that has been in his possession since 1965, when he bought it at the first Detroit comic book show, when he bought it for the princely sum of three bucks....and got slapped by a couple dealers for "driving up the price of old comics"

 

I'm sure there are dozens, maybe hundreds, of similar stories out there.

 

I remember a couple of years after that a Superman 1 selling for $20, I think it was -- maybe it was a little more. Some people groaned that this was the beginning of the end of the hobby. Who would want to collect books unless they could hope to assemble complete runs? And now the prices of some key books were rising above where the average Joe could afford them.

this post says one thing to me.... sqeggs is

 

You kids don't know nothin' about nothin'. In my day all comics were expensive and we made sure we got our money's worth. I remember having to walk half the state to the pharmacy just to buy the last beat-up copy clinging to the wire spinner rack. I once had to shovel the snow off of three counties just to earn the 12 cents to buy a Doom Patrol. Every Christmas, if we'd been good, we'd each get a shiny new centerfold in our stocking. We'd pass each of our comics around to all of the neighborhood kids, and after we all read it, we'd sit in a circle and burn it to keep warm. Good reads, good times. But you youngsters with your shiny slabs and your clever phones... you don't know how good you got it!

[Cat-Man_America]

There are probably a LOT of GA keys still hiding in long-time collectors' holdings, many of which will be surfacing over the next 10 - 15 years as they pass away and the collections are broken up.

 

A friend of mine has a Superman 1 that has been in his possession since 1965, when he bought it at the first Detroit comic book show, when he bought it for the princely sum of three bucks....and got slapped by a couple dealers for "driving up the price of old comics"

 

I'm sure there are dozens, maybe hundreds, of similar stories out there.

 

I remember a couple of years after that a Superman 1 selling for $20, I think it was -- maybe it was a little more. Some people groaned that this was the beginning of the end of the hobby. Who would want to collect books unless they could hope to assemble complete runs? And now the prices of some key books were rising above where the average Joe could afford them.

this post says one thing to me.... sqeggs is

 

You kids don't know nothin' about nothin'. In my day all comics were expensive and we made sure we got our money's worth. I remember having to walk half the state to the pharmacy just to buy the last beat-up copy clinging to the wire spinner rack. I once had to shovel the snow off of three counties just to earn the 12 cents to buy a Doom Patrol. Every Christmas, if we'd been good, we'd each get a shiny new centerfold in our stocking. We'd pass each of our comics around to all of the neighborhood kids, and after we all read it, we'd sit in a circle and burn it to keep warm. Good reads, good times. But you youngsters with your shiny slabs and your clever phones... you don't know how good you got it!

 

 

 

[G.A.tor]

There are probably a LOT of GA keys still hiding in long-time collectors' holdings, many of which will be surfacing over the next 10 - 15 years as they pass away and the collections are broken up.

 

A friend of mine has a Superman 1 that has been in his possession since 1965, when he bought it at the first Detroit comic book show, when he bought it for the princely sum of three bucks....and got slapped by a couple dealers for "driving up the price of old comics"

 

I'm sure there are dozens, maybe hundreds, of similar stories out there.

 

I remember a couple of years after that a Superman 1 selling for $20, I think it was -- maybe it was a little more. Some people groaned that this was the beginning of the end of the hobby. Who would want to collect books unless they could hope to assemble complete runs? And now the prices of some key books were rising above where the average Joe could afford them.

this post says one thing to me.... sqeggs is

 

You kids don't know nothin' about nothin'. In my day all comics were expensive and we made sure we got our money's worth. I remember having to walk half the state to the pharmacy just to buy the last beat-up copy clinging to the wire spinner rack. I once had to shovel the snow off of three counties just to earn the 12 cents to buy a Doom Patrol. Every Christmas, if we'd been good, we'd each get a shiny new centerfold in our stocking. We'd pass each of our comics around to all of the neighborhood kids, and after we all read it, we'd sit in a circle and burn it to keep warm. Good reads, good times. But you youngsters with your shiny slabs and your clever phones... you don't know how good you got it!

 

 

[Vision75]

Gurus, what do you think about proportionality amonst keys? What I mean by that is Captain America Comics #1 has about 130 slabbed and Amazing Spider-man 1 has about 2500 slabbed vs. Action Comics 1's 59 slabbed.

 

Do you think Action is twice as rare as Captain America Comics #1 and 40 times rarer than ASM1?

 

 

[Timely]

Gurus, what do you think about proportionality amonst keys? What I mean by that is Captain America Comics #1 has about 130 slabbed and Amazing Spider-man 1 has about 2500 slabbed vs. Action Comics 1's 59 slabbed.

 

Do you think Action is twice as rare as Captain America Comics #1 and 40 times rarer than ASM1?

 

 

I'd say Action #1 is at least 50 times rarer than ASM #1

[Rip]

Gurus, what do you think about proportionality amonst keys? What I mean by that is Captain America Comics #1 has about 130 slabbed and Amazing Spider-man 1 has about 2500 slabbed vs. Action Comics 1's 59 slabbed.

 

Do you think Action is twice as rare as Captain America Comics #1 and 40 times rarer than ASM1?

 

 

I would say Action is at least twice as rare as Cap 1 yes.

 

Some of the keys I think play out well on the census. For 1st app. Pep 22 is the toughest mega key followed by Whiz 2 (1) then maybe All American 16.