What do you think is the GA superhero market rate of return nowadays?

[Sqeggs]

bottom line is comic books are collectibles....while there certainly is an investment element anytime one spends the type of money we do on them, they are bad investments in general...

I don`t know if that`s necessarily true. I ended up selling a big chunk of my collection in 2006, many of which I`d picked up in 2002-2003. My returns easily exceeded the performance of my stock portfolio over the same period, and even most individual stocks in my portfolio with the notable exception of Apple.

Always exceptions. Not sure someone asking today will experience the same market dynamics/potential that existed in days past

 

Key point. I guess I'm a big-time Debbie Downer but I look at today's prices as the result of a long bull market in comics. The events that have driven comic prices to their current levels -- baby boomers entering their prime earning years, the increased activity of auction houses (particularly HA), the publicity about comics being good investments, the epic (and unexpected) popularity of superhero movies -- have already occurred. What increases in demand are likely to occur that would drive prices above their current levels?

 

Sure, some new collectors will enter the market, but it seems overly optimistic to believe that younger collectors will share our interest in GA or have the funds to spend to keep values at their current levels. I'm a big fan of the current wave of superhero movies -- I'm on my way to see Thor 2 -- but I'm just about certain that they are heading for a crash in the next few years. I wouldn't underestimate the extent to which the success of these movies has underpinned comic prices by keeping superheroes an important part of popular culture.

 

Not to mention the effect in coming years of collections being dumped by aging baby boomers or their heirs.

 

There are too many variables for anyone to hope to accurately predict the future of comic book prices, but current prices sure look like a market top to me.

[peewee22]

bottom line is comic books are collectibles....while there certainly is an investment element anytime one spends the type of money we do on them, they are bad investments in general...

I don`t know if that`s necessarily true. I ended up selling a big chunk of my collection in 2006, many of which I`d picked up in 2002-2003. My returns easily exceeded the performance of my stock portfolio over the same period, and even most individual stocks in my portfolio with the notable exception of Apple.

 

(thumbs u

 

(Thumbs down to GAtor).

[conditionfreak]

Few in the 40's, 50's and 60's, thought that comic books would be valuabale in the future.

 

So, what makes you Debbie Downers think things will be different in the new future? (not pointing a finger towards the poster who used that term, but just borrowing the term)

 

The argument could be made that this is exactly what helped make the comics of old, worth big bucks now. People underestimating their future worth.

 

Just sayin'

 

I never ever liked baseball. A boring sport at best. But as a young person, I collected lots and lots of baseball cards. Because I liked collecting things, and because I hoped to make a profit on them, someday, maybe, if I got lucky.

 

Plenty of people will have the same mentality in the future, I think.

 

But nothing is guaranteed, for sure.

[batman_fan]

Few in the 40's, 50's and 60's, thought that comic books would be valuabale in the future.

 

So, what makes you Debbie Downers think things will be different in the new future? (not pointing a finger towards the poster who used that term, but just borrowing the term)

 

The argument could be made that this is exactly what helped make the comics of old, worth big bucks now. People underestimating their future worth.

 

Just sayin'

 

I never ever liked baseball. A boring sport at best. But as a young person, I collected lots and lots of baseball cards. Because I liked collecting things, and because I hoped to make a profit on them, someday, maybe, if I got lucky.

 

Plenty of people will have the same mentality in the future, I think.

 

But nothing is guaranteed, for sure.

 

You actually already see the change in the market. Keys and classic covers rule the day (some will say they always did) and the rest typically sell at a discount. As the "cream" has risen, it has dragged the low grade stuff with it because that is the only way your "average" collectors can afford to own one of these books. There are less "completest" entering the market now. At some point, prices can't continue to climb as the collectors can't afford to buy.

[Cat-Man_America]

Key point. I guess I'm a big-time Debbie Downer but I look at today's prices as the result of a long bull market in comics. The events that have driven comic prices to their current levels -- baby boomers entering their prime earning years, the increased activity of auction houses (particularly HA), the publicity about comics being good investments, the epic (and unexpected) popularity of superhero movies -- have already occurred. What increases in demand are likely to occur that would drive prices above their current levels?

 

 

[font:Times New Roman]The picture you're painting is rather bleak, my friend (not to mention the PQ sucks)! [/font]

 

Sure, some new collectors will enter the market, but it seems overly optimistic to believe that younger collectors will share our interest in GA or have the funds to spend to keep values at their current levels. I'm a big fan of the current wave of superhero movies -- I'm on my way to see Thor 2 -- but I'm just about certain that they are heading for a crash in the next few years. I wouldn't underestimate the extent to which the success of these movies has underpinned comic prices by keeping superheroes an important part of popular culture.

 

[font:Times New Roman]M-E-N-T-O-R! Get 'em interested in the history of comic books early, while they're still interested in super hero characters and the movies.

 

Being a comic geek is kinda kewl these days, and if kids get hooked on comics and collecting early enough it stays with them. Collecting can be a lifelong passion and as collectors become affluent adults they often diversify to the roots of the hobby, ergo GA.

 

Are there too many comic book movies? Probably, and I'll be the first to admit there are some stinkers and the constant risk of sameness, but when you look at the action movie alternatives it seems unlikely that Hollywood will be mothballing super characters anytime soon. It's always a matter of getting good material, capable name-brand actors and an inspired director.

 

You are right that the success of comic book superhero movies has had an impact on the collecting market, but why the certainty of a crash? GA will likely continue to reap the benefit of Hollywood interest in comic book properties in spite of the occasional weak offering. In this regard at least Marvel Studios seems to be on solid footing and I see no shark jumping trends in the near term.[/font]

 

 

Not to mention the effect in coming years of collections being dumped by aging baby boomers or their heirs.

 

[font:Times New Roman]This is true, more likely with SA books than GA, but it's certainly a possibility. However I expect the impact will be felt more in lower and mid-grade as odds are these collections won't impact pedigreed collections. IOW, I suspect the gap between lower and higher grades will continue to increase. On the upside, this could bring more collectors into the market as availability of collectible books at lower prices tend to boost interest.[/font]

 

There are too many variables for anyone to hope to accurately predict the future of comic book prices, but current prices sure look like a market top to me.

 

 

[font:Times New Roman]Personally, I think that the market is quite stable with plenty of room for incremental growth, except perhaps for the astronomical prices associated with a few iconic books.

 

 

If California slides into the ocean like the mystics and statistics say it will,

I predict this hotel will be standing until I pay my bill. -Warren Zevon[/font]

[peewee22]

Key point. I guess I'm a big-time Debbie Downer but I look at today's prices as the result of a long bull market in comics. The events that have driven comic prices to their current levels -- baby boomers entering their prime earning years, the increased activity of auction houses (particularly HA), the publicity about comics being good investments, the epic (and unexpected) popularity of superhero movies -- have already occurred. What increases in demand are likely to occur that would drive prices above their current levels?

 

 

[font:Times New Roman]The picture you're painting is rather bleak, my friend (not to mention the PQ sucks)! [/font]

 

Sure, some new collectors will enter the market, but it seems overly optimistic to believe that younger collectors will share our interest in GA or have the funds to spend to keep values at their current levels. I'm a big fan of the current wave of superhero movies -- I'm on my way to see Thor 2 -- but I'm just about certain that they are heading for a crash in the next few years. I wouldn't underestimate the extent to which the success of these movies has underpinned comic prices by keeping superheroes an important part of popular culture.

 

[font:Times New Roman]M-E-N-T-O-R! Get 'em interested in the history of comic books early, while they're still interested in super hero characters and the movies.

 

Being a comic geek is kinda kewl these days, and if kids get hooked on comics and collecting early enough it stays with them. Collecting can be a lifelong passion and as collectors become affluent adults they often diversify to the roots of the hobby, ergo GA.

 

Are there too many comic book movies? Probably, and I'll be the first to admit there are some stinkers and the constant risk of sameness, but when you look at the action movie alternatives it seems unlikely that Hollywood will be mothballing super characters anytime soon. It's always a matter of getting good material, capable name-brand actors and an inspired director.

 

You are right that the success of comic book superhero movies has had an impact on the collecting market, but why the certainty of a crash? GA will likely continue to reap the benefit of Hollywood interest in comic book properties in spite of the occasional weak offering. In this regard at least Marvel Studios seems to be on solid footing and I see no shark jumping trends in the near term.[/font]

 

 

Not to mention the effect in coming years of collections being dumped by aging baby boomers or their heirs.

 

[font:Times New Roman]This is true, more likely with SA books than GA, but it's certainly a possibility. However I expect the impact will be felt more in lower and mid-grade as odds are these collections won't impact pedigreed collections. IOW, I suspect the gap between lower and higher grades will continue to increase. On the upside, this could bring more collectors into the market as availability of collectible books at lower prices tend to boost interest.[/font]

 

There are too many variables for anyone to hope to accurately predict the future of comic book prices, but current prices sure look like a market top to me.

 

 

[font:Times New Roman]Personally, I think that the market is quite stable with plenty of room for incremental growth, except perhaps for the astronomical prices associated with a few iconic books.

 

 

If California slides into the ocean like the mystics and statistics say it will,

I predict this hotel will be standing until I pay my bill. -Warren Zevon[/font]

 

(thumbs u

[Marvel Zombie]

bottom line is comic books are collectibles....while there certainly is an investment element anytime one spends the type of money we do on them, they are bad investments in general...

I don`t know if that`s necessarily true. I ended up selling a big chunk of my collection in 2006, many of which I`d picked up in 2002-2003. My returns easily exceeded the performance of my stock portfolio over the same period, and even most individual stocks in my portfolio with the notable exception of Apple.

Always exceptions. Not sure someone asking today will experience the same market dynamics/potential that existed in days past

 

Key point. I guess I'm a big-time Debbie Downer but I look at today's prices as the result of a long bull market in comics. The events that have driven comic prices to their current levels -- baby boomers entering their prime earning years, the increased activity of auction houses (particularly HA), the publicity about comics being good investments, the epic (and unexpected) popularity of superhero movies -- have already occurred. What increases in demand are likely to occur that would drive prices above their current levels?

 

Sure, some new collectors will enter the market, but it seems overly optimistic to believe that younger collectors will share our interest in GA or have the funds to spend to keep values at their current levels. I'm a big fan of the current wave of superhero movies -- I'm on my way to see Thor 2 -- but I'm just about certain that they are heading for a crash in the next few years. I wouldn't underestimate the extent to which the success of these movies has underpinned comic prices by keeping superheroes an important part of popular culture.

 

Not to mention the effect in coming years of collections being dumped by aging baby boomers or their heirs.

 

There are too many variables for anyone to hope to accurately predict the future of comic book prices, but current prices sure look like a market top to me.

 

Squeggs = everything comic-related is heading for a crash.

 

So be it ...

[peewee22]

The rarity (and demand) of GA books will probably never change. We will continue to see comfortable prices for the top 10 keys and popular-rare covers like Suspense 3. Maybe a Bat 8 will soften over time but it sure sounds like this thread is a little panicky. I don't think the hobby is in any danger or abnormal price dips so kick back, light a Montecristo (or stogie), and enjoy what you have.

[Hamlet]

Wealth concentration is probably the thing that will determine whether the high end continues to outperform the middle of the comic market.

 

That doesn't really help with predicting the market though, because it is hard to say what is going to happen with wealth concentration going forward. We are at historic levels of inequality in the US, matched only by the levels in the late 20s. Does that mean we will have a reversion to the mean like we had in the past, or are we going to continue into uncharted territory?

 

I don't think that I'd like to depend on any prediction in that regard.

 

That was my thinking too but I've changed my mind. For the general U.S. population the wealth gap between the ultra wealthy and the common person has increased for decades. If you overlay that trend onto comic books you could assume that the ultra-rich who are fighting over the rare high-grade GA and SA will spend proportionally more over time on these books than the common man on more pedestrian low- and mid-grade books. My two cents.

[RareHighGrade]

I don't believe that the age of GA comics is as significant a factor as some have suggested. The vast majority of GA collectors did not buy GA books off the rack. Rather their first purchases were SA, BA or later era books. GA attracts collectors for reasons that are unique to GA, such as rarity, as well as the fact that they connote the innocence and charm of America during the 30's and 40's. Although these unique traits will not appeal to all collectors, they nevertheless will always draw at least some new blood from the ranks of those who collect later era books, as is proven by many of the GA forum members who have joined us in the last few years. In short, to the extent there are still comic book collectors, there will always be a potential pool of GA collectors.

 

I do, however, agree that the decline in completionists has had an adverse impact on the investment potential of GA books that do not involve key characters or classic covers.

 

I also agree that the advent of the internet age, video games and other technological advances will likely continue to decrease the number of young people who become interested in comics in the years to come. But this will have an impact on the investment value of comics from all ages, not just GA.

[Bookery]

Anything's possible, but if history is any predictor...

 

I'm not making any predictions here, but there is something that needs to be pointed out, regardless whether your view of the hobby is optimistic or pessimistic. If you are making predictions based on history, when it comes to comics as collectibles, there IS no history. 30 or 40 years is not a historical trend... it's the isolated whims of one or two generations. It is meaningless. Comics didn't start reaching mainstream collectibility until the 1970s. They are a newborn infant compared to coins, rare books, fine art, ceramics, etc., etc. If one must make predictions on future collectibility, it must be assessed from current identifiable trends mixed with foreseeable coming events, both micro and macro. What happened in the past involves too few people from too few generations to indicate anything seriously long term.

 

[Marvel Zombie]

Anything's possible, but if history is any predictor...

 

I'm not making any predictions here, but there is something that needs to be pointed out, regardless whether your view of the hobby is optimistic or pessimistic. If you are making predictions based on history, when it comes to comics as collectibles, there IS no history. 30 or 40 years is not a historical trend... it's the isolated whims of one or two generations. It is meaningless. Comics didn't start reaching mainstream collectibility until the 1970s. They are a newborn infant compared to coins, rare books, fine art, ceramics, etc., etc. If one must make predictions on future collectibility, it must be assessed from current identifiable trends mixed with foreseeable coming events, both micro and macro. What happened in the past involves too few people from too few generations to indicate anything seriously long term.

 

 

wellll if 'comics as collectibles' is 'a newborn infant' as you say we can all someday one day sit with our grandchildren on the knee in our house coat telling them how we were there. And snagged this and collected that, and owned a part of this and that run. Should be great imho ... (thumbs u

 

 

[Cat-Man_America]

I don't believe that the age of GA comics is as significant a factor as some have suggested. The vast majority of GA collectors did not buy GA books off the rack. Rather their first purchases were SA, BA or later era books. GA attracts collectors for reasons that are unique to GA, such as rarity, as well as the fact that they connote the innocence and charm of America during the 30's and 40's. Although these unique traits will not appeal to all collectors, they nevertheless will always draw at least some new blood from the ranks of those who collect later era books, as is proven by many of the GA forum members who have joined us in the last few years. In short, to the extent there are still comic book collectors, there will always be a potential pool of GA collectors.

 

I do, however, agree that the decline in completionists has had an adverse impact on the investment potential of GA books that do not involve key characters or classic covers.

 

I also agree that the advent of the internet age, video games and other technological advances will likely continue to decrease the number of young people who become interested in comics in the years to come. But this will have an impact on the investment value of comics from all ages, not just GA.

 

 

[font:Times New Roman]I perceive the collector's market pretty much the same way. [/font] (thumbs u

[Aman619]

plenty of data for optimism. but also many threats to continued increases in values that can't be ignored. We will all have to weigh it all and make our decisions going forward.

 

However, I don't see a calamitous sudden drop off in values, especially for the rarer key material. What will get hurt first and heaviest is along the lines of what we have already seen: Supply and Demand doing their thing: common books of lesser importance will fall of f the vine first.

[conditionfreak]

Some people chase keys. Some people chase possible future keys. Some people chase runs. Some people chase certain artists. Some people chase certain characters.

 

Bottom line: Someone will be chasing just about everything, for years to come.

 

That is what collectors do. There has always been collectors and there will always be collectors. Admittedly though. Comic books could easily fall out of favor ten to fifteen years from now. But the opposite could also come to pass. Comic books could skyrocket in collectability, fifteen years from now.

 

Just like the stock market. When many think they have it figured out. Bam. It goes exactly opposite what they thought it would do.

[Mmehdy]

Key point. I guess I'm a big-time Debbie Downer but I look at today's prices as the result of a long bull market in comics. The events that have driven comic prices to their current levels -- baby boomers entering their prime earning years, the increased activity of auction houses (particularly HA), the publicity about comics being good investments, the epic (and unexpected) popularity of superhero movies -- have already occurred. What increases in demand are likely to occur that would drive prices above their current levels?

 

 

[font:Times New Roman]The picture you're painting is rather bleak, my friend (not to mention the PQ sucks)! [/font]

 

Sure, some new collectors will enter the market, but it seems overly optimistic to believe that younger collectors will share our interest in GA or have the funds to spend to keep values at their current levels. I'm a big fan of the current wave of superhero movies -- I'm on my way to see Thor 2 -- but I'm just about certain that they are heading for a crash in the next few years. I wouldn't underestimate the extent to which the success of these movies has underpinned comic prices by keeping superheroes an important part of popular culture.

 

[font:Times New Roman]M-E-N-T-O-R! Get 'em interested in the history of comic books early, while they're still interested in super hero characters and the movies.

 

Being a comic geek is kinda kewl these days, and if kids get hooked on comics and collecting early enough it stays with them. Collecting can be a lifelong passion and as collectors become affluent adults they often diversify to the roots of the hobby, ergo GA.

 

Are there too many comic book movies? Probably, and I'll be the first to admit there are some stinkers and the constant risk of sameness, but when you look at the action movie alternatives it seems unlikely that Hollywood will be mothballing super characters anytime soon. It's always a matter of getting good material, capable name-brand actors and an inspired director.

 

You are right that the success of comic book superhero movies has had an impact on the collecting market, but why the certainty of a crash? GA will likely continue to reap the benefit of Hollywood interest in comic book properties in spite of the occasional weak offering. In this regard at least Marvel Studios seems to be on solid footing and I see no shark jumping trends in the near term.[/font]

 

 

Not to mention the effect in coming years of collections being dumped by aging baby boomers or their heirs.

 

[font:Times New Roman]This is true, more likely with SA books than GA, but it's certainly a possibility. However I expect the impact will be felt more in lower and mid-grade as odds are these collections won't impact pedigreed collections. IOW, I suspect the gap between lower and higher grades will continue to increase. On the upside, this could bring more collectors into the market as availability of collectible books at lower prices tend to boost interest.[/font]

 

There are too many variables for anyone to hope to accurately predict the future of comic book prices, but current prices sure look like a market top to me.

 

 

[font:Times New Roman]Personally, I think that the market is quite stable with plenty of room for incremental growth, except perhaps for the astronomical prices associated with a few iconic books.

 

 

If California slides into the ocean like the mystics and statistics say it will,

I predict this hotel will be standing until I pay my bill. -Warren Zevon[/font]

 

 

First of all, thank God you are posting on the boards, you are the voice of reason.

 

I agree with you about high grade books…being considered along with keys,especially with top condition copies.

 

I think the problem with the market and our discussion is what really is a "key"

 

 

Let us take your collection for a second, and two books in it.

 

All Winnners #19 + # 21

 

Okay so they are not Cap # 1, Det #33, AA16….BUT look at the condition of the copies that you own, look at the GREAT content in those issues, also remember they were featured on the covers of Fantasy Masterpieces…and that was my Fav reprint title while it was on the newsstand.

 

I believe both of those books, are classic, great to own,and are gonna give you an excellent rate of return.

 

I just wish every GA comic book can do it. We do have a history which in some respects is much longer than Movie posters, BLB, Illustration art etc.

 

The worldwide exposure of comic book characters, and now marvel is on netflix…….creates interest in generations to come. just look at the new Thor Movie which I saw last night…..along with the cap preview……Quality top actors (especially Loki), Great directors and a budget of 170Mil……for the second installment of Thor….and the movie is great and will play on for years to come.

 

Some of the GA heroes are gonna get left behind…..if you do collect them and want to have a chance to break even…then you have to buy smart….

 

For example,check out lots 93376 Shadow mile high highest graded copy on the Ha Nov auction and 93273 Shadow 9.4 highest graded copy. BOTH have no trackers….amazing one has two bidders and the other 4 bidders, they are both at about $25……where is the interest???, they are probably gonna get sold at 50% of guide. This is an example of when to buy…high grade/ top rated/ and cheap.

 

You then stand a chance of getting a RETURN rather than a loss.

[peewee22]

Some people chase keys. Some people chase possible future keys. Some people chase runs. Some people chase certain artists. Some people chase certain characters.

 

Bottom line: Someone will be chasing just about everything, for years to come.

 

That is what collectors do. There has always been collectors and there will always be collectors. Admittedly though. Comic books could easily fall out of favor ten to fifteen years from now. But the opposite could also come to pass. Comic books could skyrocket in collectability, fifteen years from now.

 

Just like the stock market. When many think they have it figured out. Bam. It goes exactly opposite what they thought it would do.

 

Good analogy.

[batman_fan]

Some people chase keys. Some people chase possible future keys. Some people chase runs. Some people chase certain artists. Some people chase certain characters.

 

Bottom line: Someone will be chasing just about everything, for years to come.

 

That is what collectors do. There has always been collectors and there will always be collectors. Admittedly though. Comic books could easily fall out of favor ten to fifteen years from now. But the opposite could also come to pass. Comic books could skyrocket in collectability, fifteen years from now.

 

Just like the stock market. When many think they have it figured out. Bam. It goes exactly opposite what they thought it would do.

 

Good analogy.

 

What people collect is not as important as how many are collecting. A few people dropping out buying a title can completely change prices. Case in point, More Fun.

[peewee22]

Some people chase keys. Some people chase possible future keys. Some people chase runs. Some people chase certain artists. Some people chase certain characters.

 

Bottom line: Someone will be chasing just about everything, for years to come.

 

That is what collectors do. There has always been collectors and there will always be collectors. Admittedly though. Comic books could easily fall out of favor ten to fifteen years from now. But the opposite could also come to pass. Comic books could skyrocket in collectability, fifteen years from now.

 

Just like the stock market. When many think they have it figured out. Bam. It goes exactly opposite what they thought it would do.

 

Good analogy.

 

What people collect is not as important as how many are collecting. A few people dropping out buying a title can completely change prices. Case in point, More Fun.

 

I'm not cashing my chips in based on what might happen. Still an enjoyable hobby that's been around for awhile and with the media sensation the past decade, it will get better. Trust me.

[tth2]

I don't believe that the age of GA comics is as significant a factor as some have suggested. The vast majority of GA collectors did not buy GA books off the rack. Rather their first purchases were SA, BA or later era books. GA attracts collectors for reasons that are unique to GA, such as rarity, as well as the fact that they connote the innocence and charm of America during the 30's and 40's. Although these unique traits will not appeal to all collectors, they nevertheless will always draw at least some new blood from the ranks of those who collect later era books, as is proven by many of the GA forum members who have joined us in the last few years. In short, to the extent there are still comic book collectors, there will always be a potential pool of GA collectors.

 

I do, however, agree that the decline in completionists has had an adverse impact on the investment potential of GA books that do not involve key characters or classic covers.

 

I also agree that the advent of the internet age, video games and other technological advances will likely continue to decrease the number of young people who become interested in comics in the years to come. But this will have an impact on the investment value of comics from all ages, not just GA.

+1