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Why do people think New Mutants #98 had a "high print run"...?
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380 posts in this topic

Some facts:

 

the great malaise of 1997-2002,

 

I'm not mocking, but the post was a 10, and this bit just had me chuckling at my desk. :golfclap:

RMA is a very intelligent man.Instead of posting smileys all the time,he should give us more insite. :applause:

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Reviewing some of those numbers, I think you have to adjust some of the assumptions and validate the facts.

 

  • Print Run Estimate = 250,000
     
  • Assume 30% Newsstand = 75,000
     
  • 100% newsstand returns = 175,000 direct editions (not accurate, as there are newsstand editions in existance)
     
  • 50% newsstand returns = 212,500 remaining (175K direct; 37.5K newsstand)

 

Where things break down in some of the assumptions is at this point in the New Mutants run, Liefeld and Cable were hot. Speculators were grabbing anything they could get their hands on, including running out to grab comics from any newsstand source. Many probably survived.

 

Then there is the 30% newsstand assumption.

 

Direct vs. Newsstand distribution

 

Mile High states between 1990-1995, Marvel newsstand distribution was 10%-15% of total distribition, and not 30%. So that would put the newsstand count for New Mutants 98 between 25,000-37,500, and not 75,000.

 

  • Direct count assuming 10%-15% newsstand = 212,500-225,000
     
  • Assume 50% Newsstand returns = 12,500-18,750
     
  • Remaining Direct & Newsstand count = 225,000-243,750

 

Looking at these numbers, and assuming:

 

[*] there were less newsstand editions (assuming Mile High is not confused, or attempting to boost the value of newsstand resales)

 

[*] many were actually gobbled up by speculators due to the then Liefeld/Cable excitement

 

[*] most ended up in bags and boards rather than rolled up in little Johnny's pocket on the way to school due to speculators and collectors

 

I would think there are many more floating around.

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Some facts:

 

#1. Deadpool was NOT a "hot character" at the time that New Mutants #98 was published. In Deadpool's first year of existence, he appeared in a total of five comic books: NM #98, X-Force #1, 2, 4, and 5. Of those, three were cameos. Of those, two of them...X-Force #1 and #4...were single panel cameos.

 

Not even . . . :grin: We all know the definition of "cameo" :baiting:

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So if the max print run was 250K,25K are destroyed.That leaves 225K(are you impressed by my guzitas)

Does anyone know what the print run of say a Hulk 181 is?

 

 

Most popular Marvel Bronze comics were in the 250,000-300,000 range, but there would have been newsstand return on that whereas NM #98 would not have returns.

 

Relatively speaking, NM #98 is a high print run.

 

DG

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So if the max print run was 250K,25K are destroyed.That leaves 225K(are you impressed by my guzitas)

Does anyone know what the print run of say a Hulk 181 is?

 

 

Most popular Marvel Bronze comics were in the 250,000-300,000 range, but there would have been newsstand return on that whereas NM #98 would not have returns.

 

Relatively speaking, NM #98 is a high print run.

 

DG

 

hm

 

 

#2. 250k copies is the entire print run for the issue, nearly 30% of which were distributed to newsstands, most of which would have been subject to destruction as returns from news agents.

 

hm

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Reviewing some of those numbers, I think you have to adjust some of the assumptions and validate the facts.

 

  • Print Run Estimate = 250,000
     
  • Assume 30% Newsstand = 75,000
     
  • 100% newsstand returns = 175,000 direct editions (not accurate, as there are newsstand editions in existance)
     
  • 50% newsstand returns = 212,500 remaining (175K direct; 37.5K newsstand)

 

Where things break down in some of the assumptions is at this point in the New Mutants run, Liefeld and Cable were hot. Speculators were grabbing anything they could get their hands on, including running out to grab comics from any newsstand source.

 

This is not true. I will explain why later in this reply.

 

Many probably survived.

 

Then there is the 30% newsstand assumption.

 

Direct vs. Newsstand distribution

 

Mile High states between 1990-1995, Marvel newsstand distribution was 10%-15% of total distribition, and not 30%. So that would put the newsstand count for New Mutants 98 between 25,000-37,500, and not 75,000.

 

Oh goody, I get the opportunity to puncture Chuck's musings with hard data. Yay.

 

Sorry, but Mile High's numbers here are pulled from thin air. My numbers are from The Standard Catalog of Comic Books, by John Jackson Miller, the owner of website comichron.com and the editor of Krause's Comics and Games division. John Jackson Miller and the Standard Catalog of Comic Books have far superior credentials than Chuck Rozanski when discussing publication data. As well, Chuck is trying to explain (read: defend) his reasoning for charging more for newsstand copies, especially where no such defense is acceptable (ie, 1980-1990 issues, which are just as common as DM.) That is, it is in his own interests to underestimate, sometimes significantly, the number of newsstand copies in existence, to justify his pricing scheme.

 

So, Chuck's numbers, coming with no source behind them, are made up out of thin air, while the Standard Catalog takes data from the Statements of Ownership, Capital City orders (where available), Diamond orders (where available), and other sources to come up with these numbers.

 

As well, Curtis Circulation, which distributed the vast majority of newsstand copies for decades, kept meticulous records of newsstand returns, as this was the foundation of the entire newsstand distribution system: that unsold product could be "returned" (or "stripped") for credit, which required every dealer to keep accurate numbers for accounting purposes.

 

In fact...according to the Statement of Ownership printed in New Mutants #99, 37% of the ENTIRE PRINT RUN was returned during the period covered, on average. More on that in a bit.

 

On top of all of that, Chuck's article is FACTUALLY wrong. The Direct Market DID NOT...repeat, DID NOT...start with the June, 1979 issues. It had been tested much earlier than that. While it is true that Ed Shukin agreed with the problem of DM retailers buying books from DM distributors, returning them to their newsstand distributors for credit, and there needing to be a way to differentiate the two, this did not happen in 1979...it happened in 1976! In fact, the original largest "distributor" in the Direct Market was Whitman. This is why, beginning with Feb 1977 dated issues, we see the first "fat diamonds"...to distinguish the DM from the newsstand issues. These ARE NOT, and NEVER WERE "reprints." They were ordered by Direct Market distributors like Seuling and Western (Whitman), some for sale to comics specialty stores (of which there were very few in the mid 70's) and most for sale to Whitman to go into their long time 3-Pack program. The fat diamonds WITH barcodes were mostly for the actual direct market, while the blank UPC codes were specially requested by Whitman, so that the new UPC scanner system, having been phased in nationwide in the mid 70's, wouldn't scan an individual issue (at the individual issue price), but instead the bag itself would have a barcode to scan, with the correct price for all 3 (or 2 or 4, whatever it happened to be.)

 

These "fat diamonds" (and some slim diamonds, in some cases) exist for almost every issue of the major titles of the time, like Amazing Spiderman, Spectacular, Fantastic Four, etc. It was definitely a test period, to find out if the Direct Market could actually work, and how they could differentiate between "returnable" and "non-returnable."

 

The June, 1979 date is simply when Marvel decided that the test for the DM had worked, and applied the cover difference across the line on every title. It was not the "start" of the DM by any means, which had been chugging along for 3-5 years at this point.

 

So, if Chuck is factually wrong about the start of the DM, the rest of his "pulled out of thin air" numbers are highly questionable.

 

First, when discussing these numbers, it is critical to differentiate between newsstand PRINT RUNS, and newsstand SALES. Chuck's numbers are referring to newsstand SALES, not print runs. So, right off the bat, you've confused his numbers for SALES with the total number of copies PRINTED, which is wrong.

 

But even then, Chuck's numbers don't add up...by a longshot.

 

Returns on the newsstand market were typically 50-70% at this time, which while not great sell-through, was usual. It cost very little more for Marvel to print 300,000 copies as it did 200,000...because the big costs were upfront, as any publisher can tell you. The numbers bear this out.

 

If 37% of the entire print run was returned (and we know that from the SOO), and we know that about 290,000 copies were printed on average for the period, and Cap City orders for the period were between 33-41K (putting Diamond roughly at 80-100k copies), that means that the newsstand portion of the print run, from about issue #82 to about issue #94, consisted of about 55% of the print run, and of that, about 70% was returned, which was typical.

 

Understand that print runs and total distribution for each title and, indeed, each issue, varied from issue to issue, as well as the ratio of newsstand to DM copies.

 

So, no, Chuck doesn't really have any idea what he's talking about. The numbers simply don't bear out. There were 289,000 copies, on average, of each issue printed from about issue 83 to about issue 94 (the period covered by the SOO.) On average, 105,000 copies were returned. Since the DM accounted for ZERO returns, and all of the newsstand copies were not returned, as you have correctly pointed out, then no, the newsstand market accounted for far, far more than "15%" during 1990 (though it was certainly on the decline.) It accounted for about 30% of the market, and in the case of New Mutants (which probably did better on the newsstand than most anyways), was as much as 55% of the print run. In that respect, I even underestimated the amount of copies that were distributed to the newsstands!

 

Consider...if you take Chuck at his 15% of sales for the newsstand, that would mean, according to the SOO for NM #99, that would be 27,000 copies of the 182,000 sold on average. That means the total print run of newsstand copies (since we know that there were ~105,000 returned) was about 132,000 copies...and the return rate was almost 80%! That's a very, very high return rate.

 

(Yes, it gets muddy when one has to separate the DM, non-returnable copies, from the newsstand, returnable copies, vs. the entire print run vs. sold copies vs. returned copies.)

 

If one considers that Capital and Diamond controlled approximately 70% of the comics distribution market (these are SALES numbers), and also takes into account that Capital City orders for NM #98 was 55,200 (9,200 copies fewer than #97, by the way), and Diamond was roughly 100,000 copies, give or take, you come up with about 155,000...NONE of which were returnable. Since Marvel did not print as many newsstand copies for cancelled titles (since cancelled titles weren't likely to gain new readers), it's reasonable to figure that they printed 100,000 or so newsstand copies (though that number could certainly have been as high as 150,000.)

 

The newsstand market was hardly in the doldrums that Chuck Rozanski imagines when this book came out in December of 1990. Anyone who was purchasing comics from both the Direct Market and the newsstand during this era would have been aware that the newsstand comics market was not dead yet, and wouldn't really be until the mid to late 90's.

 

  • Direct count assuming 10%-15% newsstand = 212,500-225,000
     
  • Assume 50% Newsstand returns = 12,500-18,750
     
  • Remaining Direct & Newsstand count = 225,000-243,750

 

Looking at these numbers, and assuming:

 

As explained above, these numbers have no bearing in reality, based on these made up "10-15% newsstand" numbers from Mile High, which doesn't even take into account that Chuck was taking about sales, not print runs, which makes the numbers even more out of whack.

 

For there to be a Direct Market print run of 212,500-225,000, and we know that Cap City orders were 55,200, that means Diamond's numbers were 157,300-169,800, which is not reality. That would also mean that, from an average of 105,000 copies RETURNED between #83-94, by #98, the numbers of returns plummeted 80-90%...also not in the realm of reality. It would also mean that, between the average of 83-94 newsstand copies of about 150,000 printed, that number plummeted 75-85%. Again, not in the realm of reality. It would also mean that the total amount of copies SOLD from #94 (or #95 or #93) would have jumped from 194,000 to 225,000-243,000? That's, again, out of the realm of reason, especially when you consider that the sales of the nearest issue to filing date...93, or 94, or 95...only sold 6% more than the average of the previous year, which includes 87, 88, 89, 90, 91, 92....but then it's reasonable to think that the sales from 93, or 94, or 95...with Wolvie or X-Tinction agenda...jumped 14-20% ABOVE that particular issue? And 21-25% above the average sales for the previous year, which INCLUDES 87-93 or 94 or 95? When the Direct Market numbers went DOWN after X-Tinction agenda?

 

It makes no sense.

 

[*] there were less newsstand editions (assuming Mile High is not confused, or attempting to boost the value of newsstand resales)

 

[*] many were actually gobbled up by speculators due to the then Liefeld/Cable excitement

 

[*] most ended up in bags and boards rather than rolled up in little Johnny's pocket on the way to school due to speculators and collectors

 

I would think there are many more floating around.

 

Ultimately, you need to understand that these numbers are APPROXIMATIONS. Only the publisher and printer know the exact amount of copies printed, and they don't tell. As APPROXIMATIONS, there will necessarily be room for error: it is assumed.

 

On top of the error you have made confusing Chuck's SALES numbers vs. PRINT RUN numbers (and, again...if 105,000 copies ON AVERAGE were returned for each issue...a whopping 37% of the ENTIRE print run, and not a single one of those could be a DM copy, then, no, 15% of the sales being newsstand...whether copies PRINTED or copies SOLD...simply isn't possible), you've also made an error in the idea that speculators ran to the newsstands to scoop up copies.

 

It is true that speculators ran to the newsstands for books that were INDIVIDUAL hits, right away...enough to grab the books at the 2-3 week mark after their DM counterparts showed up, and before they were sold to readers or otherwise mangled on the newsstand...and that isn't true of ANY of the New Mutants from #86-100, with the single exception of #95. New Mutants #98 was Liefeld's 14th issue (11th if you don't count just covers like #85, 92, and 97) and was Cable's 12th appearance in New Mutants alone. He had also appeared in multiple other books by that time. Just like McFarlane before him, where later issues of Amazing Spiderman like #320-up were NOT sellouts anywhere, neither were New Mutants #96-100.

 

There were plenty of copies of each and every other issue available through DM channels to satisfy speculator demand, and no real instant demand that would cause speculators to run to the newsstand, like they did with books like Superman #50, #75, Robin #1, or other books that were instant sellouts at the DM level. New Mutants #98 was NOT one of those books, not be a long, long way.

 

It is true that order numbers for the books went up for the Direct Market during this time period, especially for the Wolverine and X-Tinction Agenda...but they didn't go up by multiples, and while sell-through may have been better for the newsstand issues, it wouldn't have been so much that they would have upped the newsstand print run, especially, again, for a cancelled title, because newsstand buyers almost never bought multiple copies, and speculators already had plenty of DM copies that they wouldn't have gone to the newsstand for copies. There was no sellout, again, for any issue except #95.

 

The numbers just don't add up.

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Let me try and answer some of this.

 

There were plenty of copies of each and every other issue available through DM channels to satisfy speculator demand, and no real instant demand that would cause speculators to run to the newsstand, like they did with books like Superman #50, #75, Robin #1, or other books that were instant sellouts at the DM level. New Mutants #98 was NOT one of those books, not be a long, long way.

 

During 1991, the New Mutants run was receiving attention because of Cable and Liefeld. People were buying up multiple because they saw this hot property really taking off. How hot?

 

Well, in 1991 we had an estimated five (5) million copies of X-Force #1 come to the market because of the Liefeld/Cable excitement, which sold out. A record only beaten by Jim Lee's X-Men five-cover #1 that came out the same year, and combined sold 8 million copies.

 

:o

 

Even typing those numbers is amazing. But I have to admit, I was in the mix of those pre-ordering X-Men #1E and X-Force #1 (4 of each card), because at the time anything Jim Lee and Rob Liefeld were working on were HOT, HOT, HOT! I sold most within two months for a profit, though not a tremendous amount.

 

So knowing this reality, and the demand that was out there, the later issues of New Mutants were selling hot only because of Liefeld and Cable - not Deadpool at the time. And people were grabbing whatever they could get.

 

It is true that order numbers for the books went up for the Direct Market during this time period, especially for the Wolverine and X-Tinction Agenda...but they didn't go up by multiples, and while sell-through may have been better for the newsstand issues, it wouldn't have been so much that they would have upped the newsstand print run, especially, again, for a cancelled title, because newsstand buyers almost never bought multiple copies, and speculators already had plenty of DM copies that they wouldn't have gone to the newsstand for copies. There was no sellout, again, for any issue except #95.

 

Not completely accurate.

 

I even bought a collection from a pharmacist in 1990 that was taking five of each book and stocking them away. He got the idea from a fellow pharmacist that told him how much comics were going for, and recommended he set some of his inventory aside as an investment.

 

It was incredible to see so many books in the back of his pharmacy, just thrown into long boxes and stacked to the ceiling. The only books he had more than five (5) of were anniversary issues and #1s, because he assumed those would be "important". So when I pulled out eight (8) copies of Amazing Spider-Man #300, I was overjoyed as only a short while later I sold them for a nice profit, though nowhere near the value CGC came along and made possible. Far from it.

 

So yes. There were newsstand speculators buying up multiple copies. And with this example, it was even the resellers that were doing it. Comics were HOT!

 

This is not true. I will explain why later in this reply.

 

Please see above. Your assumption about newsstand purchases are not accurate. Trust me on this. I was selling much of that collection at shows Gary Dolgoff organized in the NY/NJ area.

 

Oh goody, I get the opportunity to puncture Chuck's musings with hard data. Yay.

 

I did state "(assuming Mile High is not confused, or attempting to boost the value of newsstand resales)" in my final comments. So I did assume there was some fudging of the numbers. But if he is cutting the actual distribution in half, that is just crazy on his part to further hurt his reputation. Folks are going to have access to various data, and can put a decent estimate together like you are attempting.

 

In fact...according to the Statement of Ownership printed in New Mutants #99, 37% of the ENTIRE PRINT RUN was returned during the period covered, on average. More on that in a bit.

 

In looking over #99's statement of ownership, it states "preceding twelve months" as a reference point. So this data on returns could even be referencing pre-Liefeld return numbers. That is interesting. But it does state within that twelve months what the estimated print run was.

 

TOTAL NO. COPIES PRINTED (NET PRESS RUN): AVERAGE NO(.) COPIES EACH ISSUE DURING PRECEDING TWELVE MONTHS: 289,387. SINGLE ISSUE NEAREST TO FILING DATE: 318,102.

 

So if the Statement of Ownership is referencing numbers prior to the "Liefeld Cavalcade", it would be safe to assume by New Mutants 98 during the heat of the run this could be anywhere from 289K to 318K. Right?

 

Returns on the newsstand market were typically 50-70% at this time, which while not great sell-through, was usual. It cost very little more for Marvel to print 300,000 copies as it did 200,000...because the big costs were upfront, as any publisher can tell you. The numbers bear this out.

 

If 37% of the entire print run was returned (and we know that from the SOO), and we know that about 290,000 copies were printed on average for the period, and Cap City orders for the period were between 33-41K (putting Diamond roughly at 80-100k copies), that means that the newsstand portion of the print run, from about issue #82 to about issue #94, consisted of about 55% of the print run, and of that, about 70% was returned, which was typical.

 

I think there are some assumptions here that though an educated assessment, it can still be off.

 

1) The Statement of Ownership was referencing averages over a twelve month period (where that average starts and stops would be interesting).

 

2) Returns referenced in the SOO could also be questionable, as you would need to know what period of the run is it referencing? If it is pre-Liefeld and the excitement that came with his involvement at the time, the numbers are questionable.

 

3) You also assumed hardly anybody was buying up more than one newsstand example, yet this is not the case. So better to assume around 50% returns versus a higher number.

 

Great discussion though.

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NM 98 was not hot at the time of release, not like 87. There was absolutely no buzz about Deadpool at all. It had more interest because of Domino and the dude with green hair than because of Deadpool. It never got hot until after I was out of comics. People were definitely doing some hoarding at the time, because of Liefeld, but it never had a price spike while I was still actively buying and selling and was much less sought after than 86 and 88.

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"A titan against a titan!"

 

Question- during this period, do we still assume that returned newsstand issues were destroyed? Or were they repacked in those "Three rare out of print comics for $5.00!" multipacks or sold at Vintage Stock stores?

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"A titan against a titan!"

 

No reason to take it there. Though some enjoy stirring the pot.

 

We are just talking through assumptions, facts and opinions. But I am glad he mentioned the SOO, as I had forgot to look at those details.

 

I really would like to know how far behind those details were, as it was an extended period of time it would tough to reference that data if it was an annual exercise. Especially since there was such a market demand increase once Cable and Liefeld became the temporary rage for the time.

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NM 98 was not hot at the time of release, not like 87. There was absolutely no buzz about Deadpool at all. It had more interest because of Domino and the dude with green hair than because of Deadpool. It never got hot until after I was out of comics. People were definitely doing some hoarding at the time, because of Liefeld, but it never had a price spike while I was still actively buying and selling and was much less sought after than 86 and 88.

 

 

 

 

I was actually a show and mail order dealer at the time this was all going down. Everyone wanted (in order or desire ) 87, 86, 88 then everything else.

 

However, people were upping orders and stockpiling every issue from issue 93 and up. I was 25 deep on every single issue because of demand and because no one knew what the next $20 book was going to be. I wasn't alone at all. You couldn't find a copy on the stands of anything towards the end of that run. You're totally right, It had nothing to do with Deadpool, it was all Liefeld. It was several years before anyone gave a moist Cleveland Steamer about Deadpool.

 

Heck, just earlier this year I pulled one of my OO's out of the box and slabbed it to a 9.8 for a sweet sweet 79,900% profit. It's the only good thing Rob Liefeld's ever done for me.

 

250,000 print run is pretty massive compared to the new modern hotness and even the "Top of the Charts" Diamond book orders, where a 100,000 print run is a reason for a parade of unicycle-riding clowns sculpting balloon animals.

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NM 98 was not hot at the time of release, not like 87. There was absolutely no buzz about Deadpool at all. It had more interest because of Domino and the dude with green hair than because of Deadpool. It never got hot until after I was out of comics. People were definitely doing some hoarding at the time, because of Liefeld, but it never had a price spike while I was still actively buying and selling and was much less sought after than 86 and 88.

 

 

 

 

I was actually a show and mail order dealer at the time this was all going down. Everyone wanted (in order or desire ) 87, 86, 88 then everything else.

 

However, people were upping orders and stockpiling every issue from issue 93 and up. I was 25 deep on every single issue because of demand and because no one knew what the next $20 book was going to be. I wasn't alone at all. You couldn't find a copy on the stands of anything towards the end of that run. You're totally right, It had nothing to do with Deadpool, it was all Liefeld. It was several years before anyone gave a moist Cleveland Steamer about Deadpool.

 

Heck, just earlier this year I pulled one of my OO's out of the box and slabbed it to a 9.8 for a sweet sweet 79,900% profit. It's the only good thing Rob Liefeld's ever done for me.

 

250,000 print run is pretty massive compared to the new modern hotness and even the "Top of the Charts" Diamond book orders, where a 100,000 print run is a reason for a parade of unicycle-riding clowns sculpting balloon animals.

 

Precisely my recollection as well. The print run wasn't insane but by midway through the liefeld run the buzz on 87 was causing people to stockpile all the new mutants issues. By the time #100 came out, I remember lots and lots of people hoarding those, or perhaps more accurately the people hoarding them just ordering more copies.

 

98 would no doubt have either a higher print run or higher sell through than what the statement of ownership shows (given that per RMA that information covers up to #93).

 

Its not ultra common, but the title and artist were catching on and the later in the run you get, the easier to find. And its not like the issues early in the liefeld run are hard to find in the first place.

 

It all depends on what you consider common vs rare. I think of 150-200k+ copies in existence as being plenty common, especially when the vast majority of those will be in excellent shape.

 

 

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However, people were upping orders and stockpiling every issue from issue 93 and up. I was 25 deep on every single issue because of demand and because no one knew what the next $20 book was going to be. I wasn't alone at all. You couldn't find a copy on the stands of anything towards the end of that run. You're totally right, It had nothing to do with Deadpool, it was all Liefeld. It was several years before anyone gave a moist Cleveland Steamer about Deadpool.

 

That's why when looking back on the situation, and the excitement that was building from so many wanting Liefeld New Mutant issues with Cable, it would be difficult to say just the direct market books were serving the need. When collectors and speculators were trying to hit a certain count to bring peace in their mind, they were going after these books from any source possible.

 

The direct market books were being gobbled up quickly. And the later sellout of X-Force #1 shows how even with that massive inventory, the excitement still continued from New Mutants #100 to the new title. Crazy times!

 

Precisely my recollection as well. The print run wasn't insane but by midway through the liefeld run the buzz on 87 was causing people to stockpile all the new mutants issues. By the time #100 came out, I remember lots and lots of people hoarding those, or perhaps more accurately the people hoarding them just ordering more copies.

 

That sounds about right. I was working part-time in a comic store in-between college semesters at the time, and it was nutty to see the same folks coming back asking if we had more copies of the same books they cleaned us out of the week before. And they wanted them in bulk, if possible.

 

Being in that store helped me understand better what to go after for my own resale while saving for college expenses. But the heavy speculation worried me too as it reminded me very much of the 80s.

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