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GPA Frustrations

Started by Shrevvy,

92 posts in this topic

Shrevvy

Shrevvy

Posted
Posted

This is what frustrates me about GPA. I just looked up the FF #1. This is the last three sales for a 4.0:

 

11/23/13 $6250

8/22/13 $6300

8/19/13 $5750

 

This is the three sales for a 4.5:

 

11/21/13 $4183

9/1/13 $4001

4/26/13 $4700

 

A 4.0 brought almost 50% more than a 4.5 within two days of each other? The average of the last three sales is 42% higher for a 4.0 than 4.5? I can verify the 11/21 4.5 sale through Heritage (looks like a good price, wish I would have seen it), but cannot verify any of the others.

 

Is there a way to check where they are pulling each individual sale?

 

I am a subscriber, but I question the value of GPA. Yes, it is a guide and yes there are other sources. Still, if the other sources (Heritage and eBay completed searches) are free and more accurate, why is GPA $100 a year and not accurate? Sometimes bad data is worse than no data.

 

I would gladly sell a FF #1 4.0 for 15% off the last GPA sale above ($6250) and buy a FF #1 4.5 for 15% above the last GPA sale ($4183). It would be even better if I can complete that transaction with one person (I get paid to take the 4.5...).

 

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The Kaptain

The Kaptain

Posted
Posted

You don't know it is bad data. Auction sale prices can fluctuate wildly for no apparent reason.

 

Also, very few copies of that book in those particular grades have sold over the last year. Only 4 copies of a 4.5 and 3 copies of a 4.0, which means that even one fluke sale will throw off the average. I would look at the 2012 average, 12 month and 90 day average together to get an idea about what the book is really worth.

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gaz973

gaz973

Posted
Posted

Take GPA for what it is, a source of information. Personally I find it to be extremely useful but you need to be able to put some thought into interpreting the information to find it helpful.

 

There are lots of reasons why a lower graded book might make more than a higher graded book such as who the seller was, was the higher graded book fugly, did the lower graded book look like someone could press it for profit, page quality, miswrap, chipping and many more.

 

You need to be able to look at the entire history of sales of a certain book to see the trends.

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Shadow

Shadow

Posted
Posted

I find it fascinating that the 4.5 is less than the 4.0. I wonder if this is the result of looking at the vacuum of the grade? Maybe one sale was abnormally higher and people used that as a reference for similar sales?

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miraclemet

miraclemet

Posted
Posted

Lots of things other than the cgc grade affect the final price.

 

Page quality?

Presentation?

Wrap?

Quality of photos in the listing?

Confidence in seller (low seller rating/new seller)

Amount of promotion seller did of their sale?

Venue of listing?

Auction vs BIN?

When was the auction? Was it competing with other auctions?

 

Lots of possible factors.

 

Since eBay history only had 30-60 days of transaction history it means you'll need to start maintaining your own database of sales for a larger history.

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passion4comics

passion4comics

Posted
Posted

Avengers 1 in 9.2 just sold for 38k. GPA has no record of it. You have to watch the market close! Too close! I know numbers that are wrong in GPA because the sales went through at different prices than they captures, but who am I to think they would correct it?

 

It's a guide. If you're dropping a lot of money you need to know what the prices are really selling for.

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DiceX

DiceX

Posted
Posted
Avengers 1 in 9.2 just sold for 38k. GPA has no record of it. You have to watch the market close! Too close! I know numbers that are wrong in GPA because the sales went through at different prices than they captures, but who am I to think they would correct it?

 

It's a guide. If you're dropping a lot of money you need to know what the prices are really selling for.

 

If you find an error, send them an email and they'll fix it.

 

 

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lizards2

lizards2

Posted
Posted
For some strange reason known only to baby Jesus, half grades often do worse than full grades. :shrug:
:think:
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BarryAllen

BarryAllen

Posted
Posted
Avengers 1 in 9.2 just sold for 38k. GPA has no record of it. You have to watch the market close! Too close! I know numbers that are wrong in GPA because the sales went through at different prices than they captures, but who am I to think they would correct it?

 

It's a guide. If you're dropping a lot of money you need to know what the prices are really selling for.

 

If you find an error, send them an email and they'll fix it.

 

 

Agreed.

 

Passion - you appear just to be pumping your own ego here versus doing something productive with information.

 

There will always be sales that GPA does't account for, but that doesn't mean you can dismiss actual sales or refer to it as a "guide." OSPG and CBPG.com are guides - they are people deciding what something should be worth (arbitrarily or otherwise) and publishing the information. GPA is a physical record of actual market sales, while not all inclusive, it is far more valuable.

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mintcollector

mintcollector

Posted
Posted
Avengers 1 in 9.2 just sold for 38k. GPA has no record of it. You have to watch the market close! Too close! I know numbers that are wrong in GPA because the sales went through at different prices than they captures, but who am I to think they would correct it?

 

It's a guide. If you're dropping a lot of money you need to know what the prices are really selling for.

 

If you find an error, send them an email and they'll fix it.

 

 

Agreed.

 

Passion - you appear just to be pumping your own ego here versus doing something productive with information.

 

There will always be sales that GPA does't account for, but that doesn't mean you can dismiss actual sales or refer to it as a "guide." OSPG and CBPG.com are guides - they are people deciding what something should be worth and publishing the information. GPA is a physical record of actual market sales, while not all inclusive, it is far more valuable.

 

In 'passion's' defense, I don't think he is pumping his own ego by making this statement. I do however agree that GPA is just a reporting tool based on prices achieved. The important factor is how you (or anyone) interprets this data. In other words, GPA is all about application. Unfortunately, we all know how this can play out in the collectibles market.

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mschmidt

mschmidt

Posted
Posted
Avengers 1 in 9.2 just sold for 38k. GPA has no record of it. You have to watch the market close! Too close! I know numbers that are wrong in GPA because the sales went through at different prices than they captures, but who am I to think they would correct it?

 

It's a guide. If you're dropping a lot of money you need to know what the prices are really selling for.

 

It's not a guide - the word 'guide' implies guesswork, GPA captures nothing but actual sales data which you're then free to interpret as you want.

 

I've gotten errors fixed in GPA a couple of times before - you just email them and they verify the change & then implement it :shrug:

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BarryAllen

BarryAllen

Posted
Posted
Avengers 1 in 9.2 just sold for 38k. GPA has no record of it. You have to watch the market close! Too close! I know numbers that are wrong in GPA because the sales went through at different prices than they captures, but who am I to think they would correct it?

 

It's a guide. If you're dropping a lot of money you need to know what the prices are really selling for.

 

If you find an error, send them an email and they'll fix it.

 

 

Agreed.

 

Passion - you appear just to be pumping your own ego here versus doing something productive with information.

 

There will always be sales that GPA does't account for, but that doesn't mean you can dismiss actual sales or refer to it as a "guide." OSPG and CBPG.com are guides - they are people deciding what something should be worth and publishing the information. GPA is a physical record of actual market sales, while not all inclusive, it is far more valuable.

 

In 'passion's' defense, I don't think he is pumping his own ego by making this statement. I do however agree that GPA is just a reporting tool based on prices achieved. The important factor is how you (or anyone) interprets this data. In other words, GPA is all about application. Unfortunately, we all know how this can play out in the collectibles market.

 

Sure, what you do with information is the important thing, not the information in of itself.

 

Similar to what KBB did to the used car sales market, GPA is good for the Buyers. When both the buyer and seller have accessible data on actual sales, the buyer benefits far more than the seller. Without it, all but the most knowledge buyers are at a severe disadvantage and unfortunately there are a number of unscrupulous sellers out there.

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joeypost

joeypost

Posted
Posted
I find it fascinating that the 4.5 is less than the 4.0. I wonder if this is the result of looking at the vacuum of the grade? Maybe one sale was abnormally higher and people used that as a reference for similar sales?

 

Not all 4.0's are created equally. If a book has potential a buyer will gamble by overpaying with the hope a CPR will result in a grade bump. I have seen many 4.5's that we're blown away by books graded a whole grade lower. I am fairly certain this is what is driving the price differences you see.

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zosocane

zosocane

Posted
Posted

I find GPA to be extremely useful and, frankly, indispensable. It has saved many of us a lot of money (particularly in BIN listings) because we have actual data to look to, much of it quite recent, with graphs, etc.

 

I used to bring the OPG to cons as my resource. No more. Now I pull GPA up on my mobile device when I'm looking to determine what's a reasonable price.

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Porter

Porter

Posted
Posted
I find it fascinating that the 4.5 is less than the 4.0. I wonder if this is the result of looking at the vacuum of the grade? Maybe one sale was abnormally higher and people used that as a reference for similar sales?

 

Not all 4.0's are created equally. If a book has potential a buyer will gamble by overpaying with the hope a CPR will result in a grade bump. I have seen many 4.5's that we're blown away by books graded a whole grade lower. I am fairly certain this is what is driving the price differences you see.

 

+1

 

I know that one of the 4.0 that sold this year was picked up by a boardie off of eBay and had a hefty price tag on it. It also had WHITE pages and looked more like a 6.0. I don't know what the graders notes were on that book, but I was very temped to pull the trigger.

 

 

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Speedy-D

Speedy-D

Posted
Posted
Avengers 1 in 9.2 just sold for 38k. GPA has no record of it. You have to watch the market close! Too close! I know numbers that are wrong in GPA because the sales went through at different prices than they captures, but who am I to think they would correct it?

 

It's a guide. If you're dropping a lot of money you need to know what the prices are really selling for.

 

If you find an error, send them an email and they'll fix it.

 

 

Agreed.

 

Passion - you appear just to be pumping your own ego here versus doing something productive with information.

 

There will always be sales that GPA does't account for, but that doesn't mean you can dismiss actual sales or refer to it as a "guide." OSPG and CBPG.com are guides - they are people deciding what something should be worth (arbitrarily or otherwise) and publishing the information. GPA is a physical record of actual market sales, while not all inclusive, it is far more valuable.

It's still a guide, in that it guides you in pricing, just like OSPG and whatnot. Even though it records a subset of actual sales, it's not a price list.

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