Prices - Up or Down?

[sfilosa]

Thought I would throw this analysis out to give a better look at where NM (9.4) prices have gone the past two years. At random, I picked the main Marvel Silver-Age titles with an issue date of January 1966. This is clearly after the scarcer period of Pre-1965, but before the clear explosion of 1968 (when all the characters got their own books).

 

Just tossing this out (average grade per month, non-pedigree):

 

ASM #32

$570.00 - Jan 2003

$718.75 - Jul 2003

$651.50 - Sep 2003

$1035.00 - Feb 2004

$545.00 - Jul 2004

$985.00 - Sep 2004

$866.99 - Oct 2004

 

Avengers #24

$161.53 Aug 2002

$207.00 - Oct 2002

$150.00 - Nov 2002

$109.67 - Jan 2003

$178.25 - Mar 2003

$133.50 Apr 2003

$154.23 May 2003

$161.50 - Jun 2003

$132.50 - Aug 2003

$190.27 - Oct 2003

$138.00 - Nov 2003

$142.50 - Feb 2004

$199.00 - Apr 2004

$115.00 - Jun 2004

$123.00 - Jul 2004

$100.00 - Aug 2004

 

Daredevil #12

None

 

FF #46

$491.68 - Jun 2002

$376.00 Feb 2003

$414.00 - Mar 2003

$565.00 - Jun 2003

$458.00 - Jul 2003

$400.50 - Aug 2003

$449.00 - Sep 2003

$405.00 - Mar 2004

$536.00 - Apr 2004

$519.90 - Aug 2004

$488.99 - Sep 2004

 

JIM #124

$348.32 - Jun 2002

$250.00 - Jul 2002

$250.25 Aug 2002

$264.50 - Nov 2002

$199.99 - Dec 2002

$255.00 - Mar 2003

$292.50 - Apr 2003

$249.95 - May 2003

$276.02 - Jul 2003

$280.00 - Aug 2003

$345.00 - Nov 2003

$230.00 - Feb 2004

$327.90 Aug 2004

$299.00 - Sep 2004

 

Strange Tales #140

None

 

Tales of Suspense #73

$194.50 - Sep 2003

 

Tales to Astonish #75

$235.75 - Jan 2003

$202.50 - Jul 2003

$255.00 - Sep 2003

$207.00 - Jun 2004

 

X-Men #16

$770.56 - Jun 2002

$511.01 - Jun 2003

$504.99 - Jul 2003

$720.00 - Nov 2003

$565.00 - Mar 2004

$722.00 - Jun 2004

$709.99 - Jul 2004

 

 

The point of this analysis was to show that it would be impossible to claim that NM prices are always rise, but also impossible to say that they are crashing. More, what it proves, is that there seems to be good opportunities to buy and also sell.

[uclapeterg]

What was the page quality and QP associated with these sales? Also, how much feedback did each person have? I think you need to lay out more information to even suggest a correlation or conclusion in analyzing this sample.

[Aman619]

yeah.. my conclusion is also that the data is inconclusive!

If anything it shows an increase follwoed by a retreat back to the starting point.

[MikeS]

Can't speak to the other titles, but the Avengers 24 might not be the best choice to draw any conclusions to. I believe it was a warehouse find. If you look at the census there are something like 53 copies 9.4 or above, while there are only 13 Avengers #23 and 9 Avengers #25 9.4 and above. Basically if you want an Avengers 24 in high grade it's pretty easy....

[tth2]

Can't speak to the other titles, but the Avengers 24 might not be the best choice to draw any conclusions to. I believe it was a warehouse find. If you look at the census there are something like 53 copies 9.4 or above, while there are only 13 Avengers #23 and 9 Avengers #25 9.4 and above. Basically if you want an Avengers 24 in high grade it's pretty easy....

 

Same with JIM 124. I think it was a warehouse book too, there are tons in 9.4 and above. I`m actually pretty surprised how well the prices for it and Avengers 24 have held up.

[COI]

As a side note, your data proves how tough DD #12 is to find in 9.4. Actually, I can count on one hand the number of CGC 9.0+ copies I've seen available. I need one for my run.

 

As for your initial question; For the reasons stated above, it's difficult to draw concrete conclusions based solely on price stats when there are so many other factors involved.

[sfilosa]

There is no question that the data is inconclusive. I also agree that Avengers #24 and JIM #124 probably are warehouse finds. What's interesting is that DD #12 and ST #140 are obviously not.

 

Also, my data is right from GPAnalysis, so I don't know any other factors then what is presented. I actualy do a whole monthly analysis myself, and all I can say is that even over the past year, the trend for NM (other than JIM which finally had some NM sales over), it's just a very slow increase (about 3% year over year).

 

What was surprising to me (as was to others), was how well certain issues held up, with the abundance of copies for sale. That to me, implies NEW BUYERS, who don't readily notice that you can pretty much get an Avengers #24 or JIM #124 in NM, whenever you want.

[ft88]

Assume that the next 3 years are zero to minimal growth, which is what I expect. This means that the investment mentality rather than the collectible mentality will fade and prices will fall. Even the high grade baseball card market has faded over the last few years partially due to a plateau in prices.

 

Up or Down? I predict sideways then down.

[Aman619]

...and then what? more down, or back up?

[gpanalysis]

Here is the data with PQ and seller feedback where available:

 

http://www.gpanalysis.com/boards/nmanalysis.htm

 

I still think there is not enough data (per month and across the date ranges) for these books to come to any concrete conclusions on price influences - GP.

[sfilosa]

Thanks for the additional data.

 

There is no question that page quality, eye appeal (i.e. lack of miscuts, lack of date stamps, etc.) and the seller all have a big effect on the final sale price.

 

The fact that you can't draw a conclusion, kind of shows what I wanted to get at. Which is simply, prices are not necessarily just going up or down. More that there are opportunities to buy and to sell. But if you have an opportunity to buy a DD #12 (or maybe even a Strange Tales #140) in CGC 9.4, you might want to be more agressive. And vice versa, no need to be agressive with Avengers #24.

[gpanalysis]

I agree.

[blazingbob]

I wouldn't call any of these issues "tough"

[sfilosa]

I wouldn't call any of these issues "tough"

 

Can you get me a DD #12 CGC 9.4 (Off-White or better pages and no date stamp) for 3.5 times guide? If so email, as I NEED that book.

 

 

I do agree that these are none or these are really tough issues (unlike some issues prior to 1964 that find even a 9.0 copy is hard). And that is why I picked them (all from the same publication date).

 

The people who say that prices continue to soar, are usually only looking at certain key (or hard to find issues). The people that say "the gravy train is over on CGC books", are the ones selling fairly common books in less than top grade.

[blazingbob]

I'll check my latest collection list, the Daredevil run was from 1 up.

 

Hopefully the #12 was one of the one's listed as being graded with a 2005 return date.

 

Tough should be redefined by how long it takes for CGC to get your books back.

 

What is great about VERY long turnarounds is that the books look NEW to me again.

[sfilosa]

I'll check my latest collection list, the Daredevil run was from 1 up.

 

Hopefully the #12 was one of the one's listed as being graded with a 2005 return date.

 

Tough should be redefined by how long it takes for CGC to get your books back.

 

What is great about VERY long turnarounds is that the books look NEW to me again

 

There are several other DD's before issue 33 that I need.

I like your optimistic point of view on turnaround times.

 

From what I hear it like buying a book from neatstuffcollectibles. You buy the book and by the time it arrives, you had forgot you even purchased it.

[uclapeterg]

Neatstuff was pretty good with me, but I annoyed him too.

 

You guys are funny with the tough now defining the CGC tournaround times.

[LordRahl]

Turn times are actually about 3 weeks ahead of schedule. According to the website they are shipping books received on 6/24. Just got my sub back yesterday that was received on 7/12

[burntboy]

Turn times are actually about 3 weeks ahead of schedule. According to the website they are shipping books received on 6/24. Just got my sub back yesterday that was received on 7/12

 

that's three weeks ahead of the "bad" 4 month real-world service, but still twice as long (80 vs 40 business days) as the advertised estimate.....................