THE AMAZING FANTASY #15 CLUB 39 39

[Sweet Lou 14]

On 1/5/2022 at 10:24 PM, Batmanis#1 said:

No one said it will be 1$ million in 2.0 or 3.0 we said 100k. That is very much plausible for AF15.

Someone above said it will be "top three" alongside the top two books of the Golden Age.  I won't waste anyone's time naming other books that will always be worth more than AF 15, again due to simple rules of supply and demand.

I certainly accept the premise that AF 15 is a top-tier book all-time in terms of demand.  I suppose one could even postulate that there are more collectors who want to own AF 15 than, say, Action 1 or Detective 27.  But I honestly don't know how one would attempt to prove that one way or the other.

I'd be interested to hear from someone with a serious background in economics who could explain whether there is an established method for comparing the demand for two distinct goods or commodities when the supply is measurable, known, and significantly different between the two.

[Sweet Lou 14]

On 1/5/2022 at 10:41 PM, Batmanis#1 said:

As iconic books go to me AC1, TEC27 and AF15 are the top 3. I know Superman1 and Batman 1 are up there but they are not 1st appearances and Hulk 1 sorry but that is no AF15.

I can't tell what you're doing here ... just naming the books you personally consider to be the most desirable?

If we're going to do that then I'll vote to put Captain America Comics #1 in the conversation.  And there will be others who will put forth Showcase #4 or Marvel Comics #1 or whatever else.

It would be interesting to put a little poll together.  Pick a very large amount of money -- something like $100K or $250K, enough to buy a decent copy of any book in existence.  And the poll is, if you had that much money and you had to spend it on a single comic, which of the following would you buy (in the maximum affordable grade at that price point):

• Action 1
• Detective 27
• Superman 1
• Batman 1
• More Fun 52
• Marvel Comics 1
• Cap 1
• Showcase 4
• FF 1
• AF 15
• Hulk 1

I'm sure others could be added to this list.  If you allowed people to rank them instead of picking just one, it would be an informal way to get a sense of "demand" in a very small sample of collectors.

EDIT:  The more I think of this, the more I'm convinced that each of us would answer very differently if the poll says you're buying to get the best possible return on investment or you're buying to own what you love.

Edited January 6, 2022 by Sweet Lou 14

[Subby1938]

On 1/5/2022 at 8:57 PM, Sweet Lou 14 said:

 

Simple principles of supply and demand are going to prevent AF #15 from ever approaching the prices of Action #1 or Detective #27.

We will see . High grade books are over million and Spiderman dwarfs the other two in popularity . No questions asked . He’s the most popular and most collected . All grade will be at astronomical levels in decades time . The only reason the other two have an edge is their age . If Spiderman came out in 30s there is no discussion . Peace 

[DC#]

On 1/5/2022 at 7:53 PM, Sweet Lou 14 said:

I can't tell what you're doing here ... just naming the books you personally consider to be the most desirable?

If we're going to do that then I'll vote to put Captain America Comics #1 in the conversation.  And there will be others who will put forth Showcase #4 or Marvel Comics #1 or whatever else.

It would be interesting to put a little poll together.  Pick a very large amount of money -- something like $100K or $250K, enough to buy a decent copy of any book in existence.  And the poll is, if you had that much money and you had to spend it on a single comic, which of the following would you buy (in the maximum affordable grade at that price point):

• Action 1
• Detective 27
• Superman 1
• Batman 1
• More Fun 52
• Marvel Comics 1
• Cap 1
• Showcase 4
• FF 1
• AF 1Hulk 1

I'm sure others could be added to this list.  If you allowed people to rank them instead of picking just one, it would be an informal way to get a sense of "demand" in a very small sample of collectors.

EDIT:  The more I think of this, the more I'm convinced that each of us would answer very differently if the poll says you're buying to get the best possible return on investment or you're buying to own what you love.

On 1/6/2022 at 8:13 AM, Subby1938 said:

We will see . High grade books are over million and Spiderman dwarfs the other two in popularity . No questions asked . He’s the most popular and most collected . All grade will be at astronomical levels in decades time . The only reason the other two have an edge is their age . If Spiderman came out in 30s there is no discussion . Peace 

I really do enjoy all these conversations and debates.    This is the comic book equivalent of calling into sports radio to debate who should be in the College Football Playoffs.  Or who is the GOAT of a particular sport or position.   I know it probably annoys some people but I love it........

[fishbone]

On 1/5/2022 at 10:53 PM, Sweet Lou 14 said:

I can't tell what you're doing here ... just naming the books you personally consider to be the most desirable?

If we're going to do that then I'll vote to put Captain America Comics #1 in the conversation.  And there will be others who will put forth Showcase #4 or Marvel Comics #1 or whatever else.

It would be interesting to put a little poll together.  Pick a very large amount of money -- something like $100K or $250K, enough to buy a decent copy of any book in existence.  And the poll is, if you had that much money and you had to spend it on a single comic, which of the following would you buy (in the maximum affordable grade at that price point):

• Action 1
• Detective 27
• Superman 1
• Batman 1
• More Fun 52
• Marvel Comics 1
• Cap 1
• Showcase 4
• FF 1
• AF 15
• Hulk 1

I'm sure others could be added to this list.  If you allowed people to rank them instead of picking just one, it would be an informal way to get a sense of "demand" in a very small sample of collectors.

EDIT:  The more I think of this, the more I'm convinced that each of us would answer very differently if the poll says you're buying to get the best possible return on investment or you're buying to own what you love.

you're buying to get the best possible return on investment or you're buying to own what you love.

....and there's the rub right there .    Also remember, what some love most IS actually money (and can't blame them either). 

[Subby1938]

Captain America 1 , Marvel Comics 1 and many other golden age relics most people could care less about . It’s a small group of investors and collectors that never allow anyone else to get them . They contain important events I really don’t believe they hold a flame in the wind when comparing the staying power of Spiderman . They are  valuable and rare but to me Spiderman is the best comic created hero ever made . 
 

thanks 

[KCOComics]

On 1/6/2022 at 3:40 PM, Subby1938 said:

Captain America 1 , Marvel Comics 1 and many other golden age relics most people could care less about . It’s a small group of investors and collectors that never allow anyone else to get them . They contain important events I really don’t believe they hold a flame in the wind when comparing the staying power of Spiderman . They are  valuable and rare but to me Spiderman is the best comic created hero ever made . 
 

thanks 

People have been saying that for decades and yet MM1 and Cap1 keep getting more and more expensive. 

For what is worth,  if great Aunt Gertrude died and left me $400k that I could only spend on a comic book,  I would buy an MM1 or Cap1 before an AF15. 

Nothing against AF15, but you can buy one of those any night of the week on a variety of venues. Cap1 and MM1 are really special books. 

Edited January 6, 2022 by KCOComics

[Subby1938]

Not for long . Let’s be serious 0.5 blue label is 20K I’d say AF 15 ship has sailed . The other books have no doubt rarity and value their historical importance is rock solid but for me Spiderman has transcended generations adding to his lore and will continue to do so . This book will see huge growth like never before as for getting one  any time you want sure you can it’s only the cost of a new car!!!

Im positive 99% of Americans can’t afford AF15 in any grade !

 

sidenote I’m a huge submariner fan if aunt Gertrude left me that money I’d pass on Marvel Comics 1 go for his true first app in Motion Pictures Funnies Weekly 1 and Captain America I could care less to own the book or character . 😎

Edited January 6, 2022 by Subby1938

[peewee22]

On 1/6/2022 at 3:50 PM, KCOComics said:

People have been saying that for decades and yet MM1 and Cap1 keep getting more and more expensive. 

For what is worth,  if great Aunt Gertrude died and left me $400k that I could only spend on a comic book,  I would buy an MM1 or Cap1 before an AF15. 

Nothing against AF15, but you can buy one of those any night of the week on a variety of venues. Cap1 and MM1 are really special books. 

You'd better brew plenty of Folgers in the waiting area for a MM1. I haven't seen one in years and many Boardies would wrestle you over that one. 

[Sweet Lou 14]

On 1/6/2022 at 3:40 PM, Subby1938 said:

Captain America 1 , Marvel Comics 1 and many other golden age relics most people could care less about . It’s a small group of investors and collectors that never allow anyone else to get them . They contain important events I really don’t believe they hold a flame in the wind when comparing the staying power of Spiderman . They are  valuable and rare but to me Spiderman is the best comic created hero ever made . 
 

thanks 

Right, that's your opinion and not only are you entitled to it, there are lots of people who will agree with you.  However, the point stands that Cap #1 is worth more in every grade than AF #15.  We know that supply of Cap #1 is very very significantly lower, and it seems likely that demand is also significantly lower.  But there is enough demand relative to supply to drive the price.

[Subby1938]

Agreed .

[Sweet Lou 14]

On 1/6/2022 at 11:13 AM, Subby1938 said:

We will see . High grade books are over million and Spiderman dwarfs the other two in popularity . No questions asked . He’s the most popular and most collected . All grade will be at astronomical levels in decades time . The only reason the other two have an edge is their age . If Spiderman came out in 30s there is no discussion . Peace 

Respectfully, while age is a factor the real reason is supply (which of course is correlated to age).

I don't think anyone is disagreeing with you that Spider-Man's popularity (and visibility among the general public) exceeds that of any other Marvel character and rivals that of Superman and Batman.  All of that is on the demand side of the equation.

[KCOComics]

On 1/6/2022 at 5:48 PM, peewee22 said:

You'd better brew plenty of Folgers in the waiting area for a MM1. I haven't seen one in years and many Boardies would wrestle you over that one. 

An "affordable" copy with no back cover was sold here on the boards a few years ago. 

It would have been the most I ever spent on a comic, so I hestitated, then decided to pull the trigger and sell books to pay for it.... But it was too late. 

And that was probably the only chance I will ever have to own a copy. 

So in Sweet Lou's scenerio where you could pick one book, it would probably be #3 on my list behind Tec27 and AC1. 

 

[Pantodude]

On 1/6/2022 at 5:49 PM, Sweet Lou 14 said:

Right, that's your opinion and not only are you entitled to it, there are lots of people who will agree with you.  However, the point stands that Cap #1 is worth more in every grade than AF #15.  We know that supply of Cap #1 is very very significantly lower, and it seems likely that demand is also significantly lower.  But there is enough demand relative to supply to drive the price.

I'm not sure the fact that Cap1 continues to be worth more in all grades is the key takeaway here.  For financial types, isn't the main concern which book will have the more robust appreciation in the years ahead?  I think @Subby1938's point (and if I'm mistaken, then my point!) is that AF15 might now be appreciating faster than most GA heavyweights, including CAP1, due to Spidey's surging popularity.  And if not yet, AF15 could soon appreciate faster than all of them, bar none.  I dunno, but it might be fun to take a quick look using GPA just to get the blood warm!  And then I'm out of it! 

Take for example a Cap1 in 1.0, which sold for 36K in July 2017 and then most most recently 70K in Sept 2021, so almost doubled.  AF15 in 1.0  sold for $7200 in July 2017 and most recently sole for $29K in Dec 2021, so more than quadrupled.  That is just one low grade, but it feels like AF15 is just getting started.  

Now take the king of heavyweights, AC1.  A 3.0 sold for $300K in Nov 2014 and $1.64 million just last month, a 5.5x increase.  A 3.0 AF15 sold for $9200 in Dec 2014 and $43.2K just last month, a 4.7x increase.   

Too few data points, i know, but it looks like AF15, at least in lower grades like 1.0 and 3.0, is ALREADY appreciating much faster than a Cap1 over the recent years, and nearly appreciating like an AC1, despite census figures.     Surprising for a super-pricey SA book that has been expensive for so long already?  But then again, it's Spidey.  Too soon to tell, perhaps, but may be fun to track.    

 

Edited January 7, 2022 by Pantodude

[VintageComics]

On 1/3/2022 at 9:02 AM, Subby1938 said:

I think the market on AF15 is just getting warmed up . Low grade completes I think in near future are going to mind blow collectors at where the values go . Many non comic collectors aka card gurus are noticing low number counts for comics and investors are coming in hard . That’s only explanation I have for pages selling for this amount ….

So the book is going for multiples of what it went for a few months ago and now it's just getting warmed up?

You're ridiculous. The book is probably going to pull back a little once the dust settles. Like it did in 2009 and 2017. 

Man, I wish everyone was held accountable for everything they write on the internet. 

[Subby1938]

Why are my statements ridiculous but you’re God here? The book pulled back for what a year and then exploded . I’m sorry but there are different driving forces today for comics than slow turtle paced growth of the past . It’s a new era for collecting you can catch up or keep your comments to yourself . 
 

Accountability like what ? Seriously what would do ? Zero ! I have my own opinion 

[Math Teacher]

On 1/6/2022 at 10:48 PM, VintageComics said:

So the book is going for multiples of what it went for a few months ago and now it's just getting warmed up?

You're ridiculous. The book is probably going to pull back a little once the dust settles. Like it did in 2009 and 2017. 

Man, I wish everyone was held accountable for everything they write on the internet. 

Are you willing to be held accountable for everything you write on the Internet? And just how should we hold you (or anyone else) accountable?

[VintageComics]

On 1/7/2022 at 12:39 AM, Math Teacher said:

Are you willing to be held accountable for everything you write on the Internet? And just how should we hold you (or anyone else) accountable?

Haha! Sure! 

There are a couple of guys in the threads that are ALWAYS pumping these books overtime and I was speaking towards that.

Apparently every book is 'going to the moon' even when it's already been there and back already. It just gets tiring but i probably shouldn't have said anything. 

[KCOComics]

On 1/7/2022 at 2:51 AM, Batmanis#1 said:

Hahaha pull back and then go up again just like after 2009 and 2017 what a joke. Sure one day it will hit a peak but we are not there yet at all on AF15.

Maybe just maybe you should have stocked up on more AF15's I mean all or most of veterans saw this coming a mile away. Spidey most likely the most popular hero of all-time and getting even more popular was not just going to sit there and not go up in value. I purchased my single copy but I am a collector not a dealer if I was I would have gotten as many as possible.

AF15 didn't exactly pull back and go up again after 2017. It pulled back and for about 5 years it stayed really flat. That was a kind of market collection in and of itself and I think most savvy, long time collectors, are expecting history to repeat itself.

And love him or hate him, @VintageComics is a veteran. He's been at this for a long time and he's someone who's opinion I listen to, particularly around the pulse of the comic book market. 

Honestly, One of the things I really enjoy about the boards is you get allot of different perspectives on topics like this.

[Sweet Lou 14]

On 1/6/2022 at 9:52 PM, Pantodude said:

I'm not sure the fact that Cap1 continues to be worth more in all grades is the key takeaway here.  For financial types, isn't the main concern which book will have the more robust appreciation in the years ahead?  I think @Subby1938's point (and if I'm mistaken, then my point!) is that AF15 might now be appreciating faster than most GA heavyweights, including CAP1, due to Spidey's surging popularity.  And if not yet, AF15 could soon appreciate faster than all of them, bar none.  I dunno, but it might be fun to take a quick look using GPA just to get the blood warm!  And then I'm out of it! 

Take for example a Cap1 in 1.0, which sold for 36K in July 2017 and then most most recently 70K in Sept 2021, so almost doubled.  AF15 in 1.0  sold for $7200 in July 2017 and most recently sole for $29K in Dec 2021, so more than quadrupled.  That is just one low grade, but it feels like AF15 is just getting started.  

Now take the king of heavyweights, AC1.  A 3.0 sold for $300K in Nov 2014 and $1.64 million just last month, a 5.5x increase.  A 3.0 AF15 sold for $9200 in Dec 2014 and $43.2K just last month, a 4.7x increase.   

Too few data points, i know, but it looks like AF15, at least in lower grades like 1.0 and 3.0, is ALREADY appreciating much faster than a Cap1 over the recent years, and nearly appreciating like an AC1, despite census figures.     Surprising for a super-pricey SA book that has been expensive for so long already?  But then again, it's Spidey.  Too soon to tell, perhaps, but may be fun to track.    

 

Well you're absolutely right that it's too soon to tell -- we're talking about a very brief period and we'd need to let more time pass before a more sound analysis could be made.

Also, and I don't think I'm telling you something you don't already know, when you talk about the rate of change (ROI) you're talking about something totally different from what I said above.  Sure AF #15 has shown more growth in value than Cap #1 ... though I wouldn't get carried away with quadrupled, that's not even close to the real story in the mid grades.  My prediction is that despite its impressive rate of growth over the most recent year, it can never reach the valuation of certain scarcer books of the Golden Age.  It's certainly possible my prediction will be proven wrong, but I doubt it.

Edited January 7, 2022 by Sweet Lou 14