THE AMAZING FANTASY #15 CLUB 39 39

[Math Teacher]

On 1/7/2022 at 9:06 AM, VintageComics said:

I probably shouldn't have been snarky either, so thanks for calling me on it. 

I kinda wish we had those banned threads in the WC still going as IIRC you've got a degree in epidemiology and I'd have loved to have picked your brain. 

One thing I NEVER do anymore is worry about what I missed out on. That's a recipe for nothing productive. 

Everyone has wins and losses. Most people never talk about their huge losses. I left $250K on the table in a deal once. It happens. The past is for lessons so I learned and moved on. 

Just enjoy what you have and not what you don't have.

Well, my studies have revolved around math and computer science, but thank you for the compliment.

In my case, I sold GSXM #1 7.5 and IH #181 8.5 to purchase my copy of SC #4. And I haven't regretted it for a single second. I have no doubt that both books I sold will likely have a better ROI than my SC #4. But that's not why I bought SC #4. When I started seriously collecting in the late 1970s, SC #4 was <the> book to have. I don't have access to any old copies of the Overstreet guides (@KirbyJack, can you help on this?), but I would like to know, from the mid-70s on, how many years that SC #4 was the number one SA comic. Maybe it was not as many as I remember. When I went to cons, I could see every Marvel SA key multiple times, but it wouldn't take more than one hand to count how many times I saw a SC #4. Looking at GPA, there were a total of 16 copies of SC #4 that changed hands during 2021, and this doesn't include mine, as I bought mine through a dealer. I know that GPA doesn't account for every sale, so let's just double this amount to 34 sales. Now let's compare this to AF #15. AF #15 had 107 sales, according to GPA, and this doesn't count the one I sold to @Cushing Fan. Just according to the GPA numbers, AF #15 outsold SC #4 by a factor of 6.4. I know that this is due to the fact that AF #15 is not considered to be the king of the SA, but this wasn't always so.

So, in my case, it came down to this. I sold two books that I can easily acquire again (if I want) to obtain a book that rarely comes up for sale. And SC #4 is SA history, the book that many people consider to be the birth of the SA. Yes, AF #15 is also SA history, but not to the level of SC #4.

As I said, it was rare to see a SC #4 even as a wall book. I never dreamed that I would ever touch, let alone own, a copy of this historic book.

Just to clarify, I only went to about one con a year. I'm sure that people who went to multiple cons per year would probably have had a different experience.

[fishbone]

On 1/7/2022 at 12:41 AM, VintageComics said:

Haha! Sure! 

There are a couple of guys in the threads that are ALWAYS pumping these books overtime and I was speaking towards that.

Apparently every book is 'going to the moon' even when it's already been there and back already. It just gets tiring but i probably shouldn't have said anything. 

yeah, why bother ....... you are going to go down the rabbit hole again like a few years ago .

Just enjoy your copy/copies (you do have one I hope) and know you own a great piece of comic history!

[KirbyJack]

On 1/7/2022 at 10:55 AM, Math Teacher said:

I don't have access to any old copies of the Overstreet guides (@KirbyJack, can you help on this?)

Yes, but it might need to be this weekend.

[Jaydogrules]

On 1/7/2022 at 8:24 AM, peewee22 said:

Very nice J. 

Thanks peewee. 

-J.

[KCOComics]

On 1/7/2022 at 1:41 PM, Batmanis#1 said:

If I was not a true collector I would be selling off way more books but I am keeping more than 99% of the books I own.

I don't believe anyone here isn't a true collector. We are all here because we enjoy this hobby and I don't judge anyone for how or why they enjoy the hobby. You like watching the market and tracking sales and I'm fine with that. I find it interesting myself. 

Others enjoy the stories, or artists or a combination of both.  @Sweet Lou 14 collects very differently from me, but I really admire his collection and how he approaches it. 

Personally, I'm fascinated by the history of the hobby and I really enjoy the books that influenced that history.  

So I guess, I'm trying to say let's just appreciate that we have group of people with a common interest that we can debate endlessly. 

 

 

[Sweet Lou 14]

On 1/7/2022 at 11:21 AM, Jaydogrules said:

I just said , f--- it and got both.  

-J.

Very nice books!

Help me understand, what's the thinking behind obscuring the CGC registration numbers on the books?

[Jaydogrules]

On 1/7/2022 at 11:24 AM, Sweet Lou 14 said:

Very nice books!

Help me understand, what's the thinking behind obscuring the CGC registration numbers on the books?

Thanks Lou!

I don't know. I saw some people doing it on social media and figured there's a reason so Idatatype doing it too.  That's about the size of it lol. 

-J.

[peewee22]

On 1/7/2022 at 1:34 PM, Jaydogrules said:

Thanks Lou!

I don't know. I saw some people doing it on social media and figured there's a reason so Idatatype doing it too.  That's about the size of it lol. 

-J.

Good move. Serial numbers and SSN's are a ticket to ID fraud.

[Sweet Lou 14]

On 1/7/2022 at 8:37 AM, Pantodude said:

Hi.  Right, i was homing in on ROI b/c I sensed that's where @Subby1938 was logically headed or otherwise a decent point to make.  I only looked at one data point before (1.0) for Cap1 vs AF15, for my initial curiosity.  But the relative valuation could also be a lot closer than you think in higher grades.  In fact, surprisingly the opposite of what you said.  The sole recent high-grade sale of Cap1 was an 8.5 in Jan 2021 for $384K on Heritage, compared to the sole AF15 in 8.5 that sold in Sept 2021 for $707K (just based on GPA...don't know if another sold for more).  Yes, the AF15 sold a few months later, but that was almost double the Cap1 already!  With no buzz surrounding Cap (the super-hero) during the second half of 2021, how much more would the Cap1 in 8.5 have fetched in September (as opposed to January) of last year?   It could have remained relatively flat for all we know, but certainly doubling seems highly unlikely?   

Again, too few data points, but who expected AF15 to sell for double a Cap1 in any same grade last year?  I, like you, assumed Cap1 continued to be valued more in all grades, but apparently that has not been the case.  Even more surprising, this was not an isolated occurrence in 8.5!  The other year in which both books sold in 8.5 was in 2009, when Cap1 sold for $95.6K while AF15 sold for more again, $104.5K!   Why didn't we know this?  So AF15 has been worth more than Cap1 in this higher grade for over a decade, pulling away from Cap1 even more in 2021.  

So while AC1 and Tec27 could remain a different story, it looks like AF15 could have caught up to (indeed, surpassed) Cap1 in certain grades, with the reason for the huge discrepancy in relative valuation in the low and 8.5 grades a mystery to me (as noted earlier, a Cap1 in 1.0 sold for $70K in Sept, comparing favorably to the $29K for AF15 in 1.0 in December, so the opposite of what we saw in 8.5).  Still, likely too soon to tell, but those sales in 8.5 were very much in AF15's favor in 2021 (and more surprisingly, even way back in 2009). 

Well, I definitely don't want to go down a rabbit hole where the focus is now on comparing the price of Cap #1 against AF #15 or Hulk #1 (as you're doing in another thread).

But ... let's go one more round because it's fun.  

I have not done any exhaustive research on the latest prices on either of these books.  I tend to focus on the books I'm actively buying, and in the case of AF #15 I do pay attention to the grade I own (5.0) as well as the next couple of grades up (6.0 / 7.0) because I do periodically think about upgrading.

My collection is purely Silver Age (and pre-hero Atlas) but I've said before that Cap #1 is the one Golden Age book I would go after if I ever decided to take the plunge.  I could imagine maybe collecting #1-3 someday, who knows.  Anyway, I've got only three Cap #1 data points that cemented the idea in my head that it's well above AF #15 pricing.

The first is that some time last year a 2.0 copy with very nice eye appeal went up for sale, on Heritage I think.  And I thought (naively) that maybe $30K would get the book.  It sold for $90K and I soon learned that was not surprising to people in the know.

The second is that Heritage sold a 4.0 OW copy for $180K this past September.

And the third is that ComicConnect has a 7.0 OW/W copy listed for $350K right now:  https://www.comicconnect.com/item/927823

Obviously the book hasn't sold for $350K, but it has an offer at $300K so let's just say $300K is the value of a 7.0 for the sake of this discussion.

AF #15 cannot touch any of those prices in any of those three grades, and neither can Hulk #1 or any other Silver Age book.  Can we agree on that?

[Pantodude]

On 1/7/2022 at 4:51 PM, Sweet Lou 14 said:

Well, I definitely don't want to go down a rabbit hole where the focus is now on comparing the price of Cap #1 against AF #15 or Hulk #1 (as you're doing in another thread).

But ... let's go one more round because it's fun.  

I have not done any exhaustive research on the latest prices on either of these books.  I tend to focus on the books I'm actively buying, and in the case of AF #15 I do pay attention to the grade I own (5.0) as well as the next couple of grades up (6.0 / 7.0) because I do periodically think about upgrading.

My collection is purely Silver Age (and pre-hero Atlas) but I've said before that Cap #1 is the one Golden Age book I would go after if I ever decided to take the plunge.  I could imagine maybe collecting #1-3 someday, who knows.  Anyway, I've got only three Cap #1 data points that cemented the idea in my head that it's well above AF #15 pricing.

The first is that some time last year a 2.0 copy with very nice eye appeal went up for sale, on Heritage I think.  And I thought (naively) that maybe $30K would get the book.  It sold for $90K and I soon learned that was not surprising to people in the know.

The second is that Heritage sold a 4.0 OW copy for $180K this past September.

And the third is that ComicConnect has a 7.0 OW/W copy listed for $350K right now:  https://www.comicconnect.com/item/927823

Obviously the book hasn't sold for $350K, but it has an offer at $300K so let's just say $300K is the value of a 7.0 for the sake of this discussion.

AF #15 cannot touch any of those prices in any of those three grades, and neither can Hulk #1 or any other Silver Age book.  Can we agree on that?

I thought you were a GA (and SA) guy.  Cool, you focus on SA!  Back on track, I just picked an obvious grade for comparison (the ones with GPA data for both in same year) to make sure a fellow boardie wasn't misunderstood, but I don't want to go down a rabbit hole, either.  It's too dark.  That said, what happened in 8.5 in 2009 and then again in 2021 is really something, isn't it?  And those are actual sales.  I don't speculate based on a seller's ask, so the ComicConnect stuff is meh.  They can ask for the moon and get a meteorite, you know?  But if there are actual sales that show Cap1 still ahead in certain grades (like we see in lower grades), that's cool, b/c I expected that before learning about the 8.5 results for both books since 2009.  It would be seem too soon for AF15 definitively to overtake Cap1, if it even ever happens.   It could be a fluke what's going on.  

As for your direct question, AF15 in 4.0 has not [yet?] sold for $180K or a 2.0 for 90K, so agreed regarding 4.0 and 2.0 grades.    But whether or not Cap1, for whatever reason, continues to be more valuable in lower grades, Spidey is catching up?  I think.  And isn't it more compelling that AF15 in 8.5, where the real money plays, appears to be (as it has been since 2009) way ahead of Cap1 despite their being 12 blue AFs in 8.5 vs 3 blue Cap1s in 8.5?  This enduring disparity in valuation at 8.5 seems to speak to Spidey's popularity and/or the faith big money has in Spidey vs Cap, assuming that 13-year-old pattern continues to hold.   But I don't play in that sandbox, so what do I know!   

Edited January 7, 2022 by Pantodude

[Sweet Lou 14]

On 1/7/2022 at 5:28 PM, Pantodude said:

I thought you were a GA (and SA) guy.  Cool, you focus on SA!  Back on track, I just picked an obvious grade for comparison (the ones with GPA data for both in same year) to make sure a fellow boardie wasn't misunderstood, but I don't want to go down a rabbit hole, either.  It's too dark.  That said, what happened in 8.5 in 2009 and then again in 2021 is really something, isn't it?  And those are actual sales.  I don't speculate based on a seller's ask, so the ComicConnect stuff is meh.  They can ask for the moon and get a meteorite, you know?  But if there are actual sales that show Cap1 still ahead in certain grades (like we see in lower grades), that's cool, b/c I expected that before the 8.5 results for both books since 2009.  It would be too soon for AF15 to just definitively overtake Cap1, if it ever happens.   

As for your direct question, AF15 in 4.0 has not [yet?] sold for $180K or a 2.0 for 90K, so agreed regarding 4.0 and 2.0 grades.    But whether or not Cap1, for whatever reason, continues to be more valuable in lower grades, Spidey is catching up?  I think.  And isn't it more compelling that AF15 in 8.5, where the real money plays, appears to be (as it has been since 2009) way ahead of Cap1 despite their being 12 blue AFs in 8.5 vs 3 blue Cap1s in 8.5?  This enduring disparity in valuation at 8.5 seems to speak to Spidey's popularity and/or the faith big money has in Spidey vs Cap, assuming that 13-year-old pattern continues to hold.   But I don't play in that sandbox, so what do I know!   

All I would say is that your Cap 1 sale is from January 2021 which is at the leading edge of the boom we've seen this year.  Huge difference in the market in those 8 months.  I would not expect such a low price if the same book were offered today.

[Pantodude]

On 1/7/2022 at 5:44 PM, Sweet Lou 14 said:

All I would say is that your Cap 1 sale is from January 2021 which is at the leading edge of the boom we've seen this year.  Huge difference in the market in those 8 months.  I would not expect such a low price if the same book were offered today.

Yup, that could be it, as I noted, but it would have to double within the same year without a Cap-specific catalyst.  Maybe such things happen with GA icons?  Regardless, even if Cap1 would have doubled from January to September, it would only equal what AF15 fetched in 8.5 in September.   Even that would be quite remarkable, i.e., AF15 equaling a Cap1 in value in the same high-grade.   I guess that's really the point here.  That book is making noise.   Oh poop, you quoted me before I made some stylistic changes and corrected my grammar!  It's ok.   

Edited January 7, 2022 by Pantodude

[UncleBEN]

On 1/7/2022 at 7:22 AM, VintageComics said:

I think a lot of people regret the money they left on the table but don't factor in what they did with that money.

Like, if you spent it on renovating your home, or a new car you enjoy or simply bought other comics, those are all investments that did something for you and brought value into your life.

So, if people actually thought through what they left on the table and then calculated where that money went and what it did, it'd be far more productive than just regretting what they did with the money.

For example, I sold a Hulk #1 9.0 for a record price in 2014 but I don't regret not keeping it. Keeping that book for 7 years would have actually cost me money, because I wouldn't have the cash to multiply it into where I am today, which is much further ahead than the profit I would have made if I'd just sat on it. 

Even though I'm a full time dealer now, I think most collectors are the same way. 

They may have sold a big key in 2010 or 2015 or even 2019 before the recent rise, but if you bought tons of other comics with that money then your ROI is probably pretty good no matter what you own since almost ALL comics have been rising steadily for 80 years and you're not as poorly off as you thought you were. 

And if you DIDN'T sell the big key and sat on it, would you be in a better or worse place financially today?

That's the proper way to look at it IMO. 

+1

Although passing on the diamond run AF15 a couple of decades earlier is one that I wish I could get back, not sure I would have had the fortitude to press it into a 9.6 like Brulato did .......

 

 

[UncleBEN]

On 1/7/2022 at 9:05 AM, Batmanis#1 said:

Not pumping anything reporting sales big difference.

Didn't you just sell a Hulk 1?  

[UncleBEN]

On 1/3/2022 at 6:02 AM, Subby1938 said:

I think the market on AF15 is just getting warmed up . Low grade completes I think in near future are going to mind blow collectors at where the values go . Many non comic collectors aka card gurus are noticing low number counts for comics and investors are coming in hard . That’s only explanation I have for pages selling for this amount ….

Pretty soon it will be pieces.....right @gadzukes?   

 

[Ltpink2002]

On 1/7/2022 at 9:31 AM, october said:

This is very true, but you are misinterpreting my regrets. A lot of those book I sold and wish I hadn't...I want them back because my tastes have changed. I sold so many beautiful high grade OO SA DC/Marvel collections because, at the time, I was only interested in Gold. Now that I have come back around to collecting Silver, I wish I had kept more. Sure, there is the odd issue that has skyrocketed in value that I wish I had kept just to sell now, but mostly I'm annoyed because I am currently collecting things I have owned multiple times already. 

1+

[FoggyNelson]

On 1/7/2022 at 10:31 AM, october said:

This is very true, but you are misinterpreting my regrets. A lot of those book I sold and wish I hadn't...I want them back because my tastes have changed. I sold so many beautiful high grade OO SA DC/Marvel collections because, at the time, I was only interested in Gold. Now that I have come back around to collecting Silver, I wish I had kept more. Sure, there is the odd issue that has skyrocketed in value that I wish I had kept just to sell now, but mostly I'm annoyed because I am currently collecting things I have owned multiple times already. 

This makes me sad to read , I hope it was still enjoyable at the time

[WolverineX]

On 1/8/2022 at 3:39 PM, Batmanis#1 said:

Yes but had it for years and years as you get older sometimes you have to let some of your books go to help solve various issues in life. I did not want to sell it but before I sell my TEC books almost all my other books will go first.

When you have health issues and need funds you do what is needed to make your life better. I love the SA always have own many books from this age but like I said they will be the first to go except AF15 and X-men 1 before I sell any of my TEC books. TEC is my entire life my true passion one of the reasons I enjoy my days and gets me threw hard and good times. That and my pet and a few other things.

With my current sales I will be more than OK and will allow me to add 1-2 TEC books as well. So in the end I am happy that is what matters in a hobby and life in general.

I love Spiderman and X-Men is my favorite team of all-time so those I will be keeping as long as I can.

Health >comics 

Hope you are doing better 

[Aman619]

That’s a part of life. Building assets and eventually cashing them in as needed.  Nice that our hobby has become something that can help smooth over the rough patches 

[Kevin76]

2.0 on Heritage just went for $38,400, up from a previous $28,800 since October