THE AMAZING FANTASY #15 CLUB 39 39

[lou_fine]

On 2/13/2023 at 12:57 PM, Batmanis#1 said:

On 1/30/2023 at 12:56 PM, byosti said:

when studying census numbers like this, how many or what % do you think is resubs/presses/resto removal etc that do not include original label and then would be doubly counted? same with cgc to cbcs or cbcs to cgc skewing 

Most likely a lot of them.

And to offset this double counting of resubs, for every graded copy of AF 15, how many more raw copies are there still sitting in private collections that have yet to cross a grader's table?    

Edited February 13, 2023 by lou_fine

[KCOComics]

On 2/13/2023 at 4:34 PM, Phill the Governor said:

I find this unlikely. As long as the label is eventually sent back, its removed from the census. The people that are mostly cracking out books take the measures to send in groups of labels to do their part in keeping the census as accurate as possible. I'd argue those that don't are outliers.

 

I'm not sure it's that cut and dry. 

While I'm sure there is integrity with the bigger pressers in the business, how many fly-by-night flippers are using local two bit pressers and resubbing? 

I've always considered the census directional data at best. I trust it to show which popular keys have higher population numbers (JIM83 is less common that Avengers 1 for example), but i don't believe the # in any way reflects the actual # of CGC graded books that are out there. 

The same books have been graded 2 and 3 times. Some books have gone to other companies, others have been cracked and not regraded. 

 

 

[DC#]

On 1/25/2023 at 8:44 PM, DC# said:

 

I was really bored recently and decided to go way, way back in this thread - all the way back to 2015 or so - just to see what conversations have been like over the past decade.    Funny how the conversations have not really changed that much - where prices are, speculation, predictions, impact of marvel chipping, validity of various auction houses, etc etc etc.    

One thing that caught my eye was a chart from April 2017 that broke down how many Universal graded copies were in the census.    In April 2017 it stood at 1,653 copies - in January 2023 we are at 2,403 - a 45% increase.    So in the first 17 years of the census they graded 1,653 and have done 750 in the past six years.   That is an average of just under 100/year in the first 17 years to around 125/year these past six.

The 2017 chart doesn't have actual numbers by grade but I eyeballed them to create a comparison by grade.    The most growth was in grades 2.5 and under (50-70% increases) but all grades under 6.0 grew by over 30%.   Even 8 and 8.5 grew around 30%.   

Again - I had to guess the 2017 numbers but this gives a directional sense of how many books have been added by grade.

 

 

I had the AF15 census window open on my computer still so just glanced at it......since Jan 26th they have added 8 books.    1 = 1.0, 1=1.5, 1=2.5, 1=4.5, 2 = 5.0, 1= 6.0, and 1=7.5 (how happy is that person)

[tippymcfoo]

I was just reading this thread. A lot of knowledge on here. So where do you all think the best place is to buy/sell an AF 15? There has to be more options than just HA, eBay, and CLink.

[Grendel72]

Here

[Sweet Lou 14]

On 2/23/2023 at 10:52 PM, tippymcfoo said:

I was just reading this thread. A lot of knowledge on here. So where do you all think the best place is to buy/sell an AF 15? There has to be more options than just HA, eBay, and CLink.

I consign all of my books through Bob Storms (www.highgradecomics.com / @blazingbob) and he does a fantastic job of finding buyers (and sellers!) for big-ticket books.  Highly recommended.

[DC#]

As we wait for some of the auction results over the next few weeks (there was a 2.0 on Heritage this weekend that went for $22.9k) - I found some more census data in this thread.    In this case Ghost Town posted a great collection of census data in August 2016 covering August 2016, August 2014,  August 2013, and August 2011.     I updated my bar graph with all this new info - though not quite as legible as before.    As prices have gone up would seem more and more of the lower end copies have gotten slabbed.     The overall population of Universal copies has grown 148% between August 2011 and January 2023.     Small numbers but 9.6 copies are up 300% (1 to 4)

 

Here is the data set to go along with it.   Some interesting things.....

Yellow Highlights:  Between Aug 2011 and Aug 2013 it would seem that two 9.4s were resubmitted and achieved 9.6s.   I think several members here have discussed these before.  

Blue Highlights:   7.0 copies dropped by 4 between Aug 2013 and Aug 2014.   The same period saw a 3 book rise in 7.5 copies and a 1 book increase in 9.0.  I suppose its possible that a 7.0 got upgraded to a 9.0 in that year but seems more likely that one or more books laddered up between the 7.5 and 9.0 levels

Orange Highlights:   7.0 copies again dropped by 4 between Aug 2106 and April 2017 while there were increases in 7.5 (2 copies) 8.0 (4 copies) and 9.0 (2 copies).   Again, assume there was laddering up from resubmissions between 7.0 and 9.0.

Green Highlights:  3 copy increase in 9.4s in the same Aug 2016 to April 2017 timeframe.    More resubs?   Some virginal copies hitting for the first time?    There was also one more 9.6 added between Aug 2014 and Aug 2016 - resub?   I know there are board members who are far more in-tune with these high-end books - and likely know of high-grade copies in collections that are still raw.    Does make you wonder how many more high grade copies remain out there undiscovered or even how many more copies could be pressed into the 9.0 to 9.6 range.   

And lastly, for 12 years a 3.0 remains the most populous grade.  

Edited February 28, 2023 by DC#

[cmzare]

On 3/1/2023 at 7:35 PM, Batmanis#1 said:

Closed at 290k.

How does this compare to the 8.5 that sold for $552K a few months ago?

[peewee22]

On 3/1/2023 at 8:09 PM, cmzare said:

How does this compare to the 8.5 that sold for $552K a few months ago?

Very soft price at $290. An 8.0 sold for $610 a couple of years ago. The highest I recall.
 

it’s a wait and see market right now. No way I’d sell.

[Dark Knight]

This book is tanking like the Titanic 

[peewee22]

On 3/1/2023 at 9:06 PM, Batmanis#1 said:

My guess the buyer must be real happy he just has to wait till things kick back into gear if he chooses to sell and he keeps it even better long term. When movies start coming out again and people get back to things pre-covid AF15 will rise again. Things are tough right now for many people but that always passes. Ups and downs. The covid years pushed prices up way to high way to fast. Better to grow at a steady pace.

401k’s lost 20% last year. Inflation is astronomical. Makes sense collectible prices are low.

Patience everyone.😊

 

 

 

[Dark Knight]

On 3/1/2023 at 7:29 PM, Batmanis#1 said:

Will sit on my AF15 for another couple of years and the only reason I will sell is because I am old. But no way I am selling in the current market just not worth it. AF15 will get its legs back when I don't know but it will.

I'm sure it will since spider's have eight legs to use 

[Dark Knight]

On 3/1/2023 at 7:29 PM, Batmanis#1 said:

On 3/1/2023 at 7:23 PM, Dark Knight said:

This book is tanking like the Titanic 

Are you selling yours?

Nope. I could've sold at its high but decided to keep.  In hindsight, I probably should have sold then, and upgraded to a nicer copy now but I already sold half of my big books during the height so I figured I might as well just hang on to my copy.

[peewee22]

I really have no intention on selling mine. It’s in a Trust Fund and my 2 year old grandson will have it one day.

[Dark Knight]

On 3/1/2023 at 7:34 PM, Batmanis#1 said:

Your young just wait it out we all know AF15 will get back on track at some point. If you have the years just wait. Dead smack in winter is never the time of year to sell prices usually pick up in late spring.

Been through something similar times like this before so not worried.  I'm still buying books

[Gotham Kid]

[lou_fine]

On 3/1/2023 at 6:09 PM, cmzare said:

On 3/1/2023 at 5:35 PM, Batmanis#1 said:

Closed at 290k.

How does this compare to the 8.5 that sold for $552K a few months ago?

 

On 3/1/2023 at 6:52 PM, peewee22 said:

Very soft price at $290. An 8.0 sold for $610 a couple of years ago. The highest I recall.

Yes, definitely nothing like the pandemic heydays of 2021 and 2022 when CC was able to fetch $560K for a QES stickered copy back in back in August of 2021 before it started to dipped back down to $520K in March of 2022 and then a bit further down at $448.5K in June of 2022.  

 

On 3/1/2023 at 7:23 PM, Dark Knight said:

This book is tanking like the Titanic 

Well, it certainly doesn't help when the supply is so large with multiple copies available in various gades in every single auction.  

 

On 3/1/2023 at 7:23 PM, peewee22 said:

401k’s lost 20% last year. Inflation is astronomical. Makes sense collectible prices are low.

Well, certainly NOT for the harder to find or classic cover GA books though, unless you are referring to the pizz-poor Cap 1 sale on CL.  

[KCOComics]

I'm not sure how quickly it will bounce back. I don't think you'll see a rapid increase back to the pandemic driven heights. I shouldn't be surprised if it takes ten years to get back there.  

I think it will behave similar to how AF15 always has before the pandemic..... Once it bottoms out, you'll have long periods of slow and steady growth, with a few years of big spikes... Not pandemic big, but big. 

If the stars ever aligned for me, I would love to upgrade my copy, but it's still a pricey book. 

 

[peewee22]

On 3/3/2023 at 5:12 AM, KCOComics said:

I'm not sure how quickly it will bounce back. I don't think you'll see a rapid increase back to the pandemic driven heights. I shouldn't be surprised if it takes ten years to get back there.  

I think it will behave similar to how AF15 always has before the pandemic..... Once it bottoms out, you'll have long periods of slow and steady growth, with a few years of big spikes... Not pandemic big, but big. 

If the stars ever aligned for me, I would love to upgrade my copy, but it's still a pricey book. 

 

Good analogy. 

[DC#]

Everyone was talking about the 8.0 sale - but the 4.0 sale was actually fairly strong given the book was not particularly remarkable (OW pages, chipping, a bit of the common miswrap).    It went for $42k - most recent 4.0 sales were $37.5k (Dec), $32k (Nov), $31.2k (Nov), $36k (Oct), $41.4k (Sept), $38.4k (Sep), $39k (Aug)