THE AMAZING FANTASY #15 CLUB 39 39

[NoMan]

3 minutes ago, VintageComics said:

Comic Connect / Metro also had a CGC 5.0 last October in NYC. I believe it just sold recently.

The 2.5 is just gorgeous in hand. I thought about buying it when GAtor owned years ago but just didn't know how I could dish out the dough at the time to make a sale.

@NoMan

As a general rule, the larger books take more time to sell than cheaper books.

Dumb question, Roy: because the pool is smaller (those with deep pockets)?  It seems expensive rate stuff just gets snatched up immediately. 

[VintageComics]

5 minutes ago, NoMan said:

It seems expensive rate stuff just gets snatched up immediately. 

Yes, the buying pool is much smaller.

It's all related to price point, venue and who is watching at a given time (which I figure you know).

Some stuff doesn't get grabbed up immediately.

Edited June 16, 2017 by VintageComics

[Ryanfromottawa]

I personally love the signature on the copy 

4 hours ago, DTM700 said:

Great looking 1.8!

How do you guys feel about sig vs no sig? Or is it all just personal preference?

I got Stan to sign my arm last year at fan expo and had it tattooed over

[SECollector]

4 hours ago, Bigsexy said:

I personally love the signature on the copy 

I got Stan to sign my arm last year at fan expo and had it tattooed over

Was it witnessed? Slab it! 

 

 

[delekkerste]

On 6/14/2017 at 5:29 PM, showcase22gr1959 said:

I have to agree to this correlation. For years, the Mickey Mantle 1952 Topps has been undervalue and the entry level was much lower than it was the last five years. The Mickey Mantle in PSA8 are now fetching six figures and could fetch up to one million+ in PSA9+.  Any acceptable T206 Honus Wagner will fetch mid six figures+.  AF15 and Mickey Mantle are the same correlation in terms of supply and demand.

In 2011, I was the underbidder on a PSA 8 1952T Mantle, the one that sold for $86.6K.  Recently, one PSA 8 example sold for $660K, with numerous examples in the $400Ks and $500Ks over the past couple of years.  Is Mickey Mantle enjoying a resurgence?  Did the Chinese discover Mickey Mantle?  Did they make a Mickey Mantle movie?  FFS, baseball itself is trailing behind the NFL and NBA in popularity, with attendance slightly down after peaking a few seasons ago and more than 60% of viewers watching the sport on TV being over the age of 55.  For the Mantle card to go up 7 and a half times in 6 years, with no improvement in the underlying fundamentals, just speaks to how broadly encompassing this liquidity-driven asset bubble has been.  Real estate bubbles abound again, at least in many higher-end cosmopolitan markets.  Virtually every indicator shows this to be among the top 3 all-time most overvalued stock markets.  Bond yields were absurdly negative across much of the globe last year, and still remain artificially depressed near historic lows.  The cryptocurrencies are putting everything to shame; Bitcoin is up triple-digits YTD and Ethereum is up like 40 or 50x in a matter of months.  Trophy art & collectibles, whether we're talking about $110.5 million Basquiats or AF 15s or 1952 Topps Mickey Mantles, are similarly surging for no apparent reason other than speculation, FOMO and the feeling that cash is trash.    

As a collector friend of mine put it, we are presently living in the greatest asset bubble in history.  Maybe Tulipmania or the dot-com bubble were nuttier, but, there has never been such an all-encompassing, globalized asset bubble like this.  Not ever.  Interest rates are like gravity to asset valuations, and with interest rates in most of the developed world at/near/below zero for years and years and years, we've been in an environment of weightlessness such as has never been witnessed before.  And, just like on the moon or in outer space, if you get some momentum going, things just keep going without gravity to weigh things down.  But, this environment won't last forever.  Markets are self-correcting and returns are mean-reverting over time.  

To quote and then paraphrase the billionaire Howard Marks:

"It has been demonstrated time and time again that no asset is so good that it can’t become a bad investment if bought at too high a price. And there are few assets so bad that they can’t be a good investment when bought cheap enough."

When people say flatly, “you can't lose with AF #15s” or “AF #15 is a superior investment," that sounds a lot like “we’d buy AF #15 at any price . . . and we’d buy it before alternatives B, C or D at any price.” That just has to be a mistake. No asset class or investment has the birthright of a high return. It’s only attractive if it’s priced right.

Edited June 18, 2017 by delekkerste

[Gotham Kid]

9 minutes ago, delekkerste said:

On 6/14/2017 at 11:29 PM, showcase22gr1959 said:

I have to agree to this correlation. For years, the Mickey Mantle 1952 Topps has been undervalue and the entry level was much lower than it was the last five years. The Mickey Mantle in PSA8 are now fetching six figures and could fetch up to one million+ in PSA9+.  Any acceptable T206 Honus Wagner will fetch mid six figures+.  AF15 and Mickey Mantle are the same correlation in terms of supply and demand.

In 2011, I was the underbidder on a PSA 8 1952T Mantle, the one that sold for $86.6K.  Recently, one PSA 8 example sold for $660K, with numerous examples in the $400Ks and $500Ks over the past couple of years.  Is Mickey Mantle enjoying a resurgence?  Did the Chinese discover Mickey Mantle?  Did they make a Mickey Mantle movie?  FFS, baseball itself is trailing behind the NFL and NBA in popularity, with attendance slightly down after peaking a few seasons ago and more than 60% of viewers watching the sport on TV being over the age of 55.  For the Mantle card to go up 7 and a half times in 6 years, with no improvement in the underlying fundamentals, just speaks to how broadly encompassing this liquidity-driven asset bubble has been.  Real estate bubbles abound again, at least in many higher-end cosmopolitan markets.  Virtually every indicator shows this to be among the top 3 all-time most overvalued stock markets.  Bond yields were absurdly negative across the globe last year, and still remain artificially depressed near historic lows.  The cryptocurrencies are putting everything to shame; Bitcoin is up triple-digits YTD and Ethereum is up like 40 or 50x in a matter of months.  Trophy art & collectibles, whether we're talking about $110.5 million Basquiats or AF 15s or 1952 Topps Mickey Mantles, are similarly surging for no apparent reason other than speculation, FOMO and the feeling that cash is trash.    

As a collector friend of mine put it, we are presently living in the greatest asset bubble in history.  Maybe Tulipmania or the dot-com bubble were nuttier, but, there has never been such an all-encompassing, globalized asset bubble like this.  Not ever.  Interest rates are like gravity to asset valuations, and with interest rates in most of the developed world at/near/below zero for years and years and years, we've been in an environment of weightlessness such as has never been witnessed before.  And, just like on the moon or in outer space, if you get some momentum going, things just keep going without gravity to weigh things down.  But, this environment won't last forever.  Markets are self-correcting and returns are mean-reverting over time.  

To quote and then paraphrase the billionaire Howard Marks:

"It has been demonstrated time and time again that no asset is so good that it can’t become a bad investment if bought at too high a price. And there are few assets so bad that they can’t be a good investment when bought cheap enough."

When people say flatly, “you can't lose with AF #15s” or “AF #15s is a superior investment," that sounds a lot like “we’d buy AF #15 at any price . . . and we’d buy it before alternatives B, C or D at any price.” That just has to be a mistake. No asset class or investment has the birthright of a high return. It’s only attractive if it’s priced right.

Excellent post. But then again, I'd expect nothing less.

Edited June 18, 2017 by Gotham Kid

[piper]

2 minutes ago, Gotham Kid said:

Excellent post.

It applies to pre-Robin Tecs too...

[showcase22gr1959]

1 hour ago, delekkerste said:

In 2011, I was the underbidder on a PSA 8 1952T Mantle, the one that sold for $86.6K.  Recently, one PSA 8 example sold for $660K, with numerous examples in the $400Ks and $500Ks over the past couple of years.  Is Mickey Mantle enjoying a resurgence?  Did the Chinese discover Mickey Mantle?  Did they make a Mickey Mantle movie?  FFS, baseball itself is trailing behind the NFL and NBA in popularity, with attendance slightly down after peaking a few seasons ago and more than 60% of viewers watching the sport on TV being over the age of 55.  For the Mantle card to go up 7 and a half times in 6 years, with no improvement in the underlying fundamentals, just speaks to how broadly encompassing this liquidity-driven asset bubble has been.  Real estate bubbles abound again, at least in many higher-end cosmopolitan markets.  Virtually every indicator shows this to be among the top 3 all-time most overvalued stock markets.  Bond yields were absurdly negative across much of the globe last year, and still remain artificially depressed near historic lows.  The cryptocurrencies are putting everything to shame; Bitcoin is up triple-digits YTD and Ethereum is up like 40 or 50x in a matter of months.  Trophy art & collectibles, whether we're talking about $110.5 million Basquiats or AF 15s or 1952 Topps Mickey Mantles, are similarly surging for no apparent reason other than speculation, FOMO and the feeling that cash is trash.    

As a collector friend of mine put it, we are presently living in the greatest asset bubble in history.  Maybe Tulipmania or the dot-com bubble were nuttier, but, there has never been such an all-encompassing, globalized asset bubble like this.  Not ever.  Interest rates are like gravity to asset valuations, and with interest rates in most of the developed world at/near/below zero for years and years and years, we've been in an environment of weightlessness such as has never been witnessed before.  And, just like on the moon or in outer space, if you get some momentum going, things just keep going without gravity to weigh things down.  But, this environment won't last forever.  Markets are self-correcting and returns are mean-reverting over time.  

To quote and then paraphrase the billionaire Howard Marks:

"It has been demonstrated time and time again that no asset is so good that it can’t become a bad investment if bought at too high a price. And there are few assets so bad that they can’t be a good investment when bought cheap enough."

When people say flatly, “you can't lose with AF #15s” or “AF #15 is a superior investment," that sounds a lot like “we’d buy AF #15 at any price . . . and we’d buy it before alternatives B, C or D at any price.” That just has to be a mistake. No asset class or investment has the birthright of a high return. It’s only attractive if it’s priced right.

So if you did win the Mickey Mantle 1952 Topps, would have kept it or flipped already? Would you have timed it and sold it now for the X/amount or sold too soon. I was an under bidder for an blue label AF15 CGC 8.5 twice, in 2010, 2011. I learned that sometimes you just have to step up to the plate, and pay a little more. I've won many high end cream of the crop books this way, and I'm sure you did with your comic art related items. In 2011, Peewee22 step up to the plate and paid a record for his Blue AF15 8.0 Edward Sarley copy.  It was record for an 8.0 then, but it was well worth it to own a high grade copy. Regardless, if an AF15 8.0 50K, 100K, 200K, 300K, 400K, or any other AF15 in higher or lower grade, it's still "The First Appearance of Spider-Man" created by the legend "Stan the Man" and the privilege to own a copy is such a pleasure to some. The federal reserve has been printing and printing easy money, which has caused asset inflation. Banks keep lending the same recycled money over and over for whomever will qualify. You have to keep in mind, any asset class needs to keep up inflation to have retain the principle value. A comic book in 1962 started 12 cents cover price and now how much for an average cover price new release? People are hedging against inflation and inflation is currently running 3% a year which means your assets needs to increased 100% in 20 years to keep up with inflation to break even. You can say, art, comics, real estate, stocks, other from of assets are increasing for no apparent reason, but they do correlate in some aspect. When the asset bubble deflates, all assets are prone to depress prices as we have seen in the 2009 financial crisis. 

 

 

[delekkerste]

39 minutes ago, showcase22gr1959 said:

So if you did win the Mickey Mantle 1952 Topps, would have kept it or flipped already? Would you have timed it and sold it now for the X/amount or sold too soon. I was an under bidder for an blue label AF15 CGC 8.5 twice, in 2010, 2011. I learned that sometimes you just have to step up to the plate, and pay a little more. I've won many high end cream of the crop books this way, and I'm sure you did with your comic art related items. In 2011, Peewee22 step up to the plate and paid a record for his Blue AF15 8.0 Edward Sarley copy.  It was record for an 8.0 then, but it was well worth it to own a high grade copy. Regardless, if an AF15 8.0 50K, 100K, 200K, 300K, 400K, or any other AF15 in higher or lower grade, it's still "The First Appearance of Spider-Man" created by the legend "Stan the Man" and the privilege to own a copy is such a pleasure to some. The federal reserve has been printing and printing easy money, which has caused asset inflation. Banks keep lending the same recycled money over and over for whomever will qualify. You have to keep in mind, any asset class needs to keep up inflation to have retain the principle value. A comic book in 1962 started 12 cents cover price and now how much for an average cover price new release? People are hedging against inflation and inflation is currently running 3% a year which means your assets needs to increased 100% in 20 years to keep up with inflation to break even. You can say, art, comics, real estate, stocks, other from of assets are increasing for no apparent reason, but they do correlate in some aspect. When the asset bubble deflates, all assets are prone to depress prices as we have seen in the 2009 financial crisis. 

If I had won the Mantle PSA 8, I would have sold it already.  I don't know at what price, but certainly before current levels.  

Don't you think it's completely  that people would pay up 30-50%+ from where prices were 6 months ago to hedge against 3% inflation (the official stats are running sub-2%, actually)?  And why are we getting these massively outsized moves now, versus other points in history when inflation was actually much stronger than it has been in recent years?   Simple answer:  it's a bubble.  And, when the asset bubble deflates, I certainly agree that things won't go down in a vacuum.  All the values that have been unduly propped up during this time will almost certainly all unwind together.  I really don't think this is a great time to be "stepping up to the plate" and paying record prices for just about anything (unless you really just can't live without it).    

[namisgr]

This is way too reasoned and long-term of a perspective to fit in the last 50 pages of the thread.  

Edited June 18, 2017 by namisgr

[showcase22gr1959]

1 hour ago, namisgr said:

This is way too reasoned and long-term of a perspective to fit in the last 50 pages of the thread.  

Perception is everything.

[showcase22gr1959]

1 hour ago, delekkerste said:

If I had won the Mantle PSA 8, I would have sold it already.  I don't know at what price, but certainly before current levels.  

Don't you think it's completely  that people would pay up 30-50%+ from where prices were 6 months ago to hedge against 3% inflation (the official stats are running sub-2%, actually)?  And why are we getting these massively outsized moves now, versus other points in history when inflation was actually much stronger than it has been in recent years?   Simple answer:  it's a bubble.  And, when the asset bubble deflates, I certainly agree that things won't go down in a vacuum.  All the values that have been unduly propped up during this time will almost certainly all unwind together.  I really don't think this is a great time to be "stepping up to the plate" and paying record prices for just about anything (unless you really just can't live without it).    

It appears, the 1952 Topps Mickey Mantle was an item you would keep, but if the price was bubbly, you will sell. It's nothing wrong to take profits, for there will be profit seekers.  I always had an interest to owning a Topps 1952 Mickey Mantle, it was just one of those unattainable artifact when I was young. Inflation has begun to spike the last year and some folks are anticipating much higher inflation than the normal. It was great to have such low inflation the last seven years. The recent gap-up in AF15  prices has shocked a lot of folks and I was expecting some gap-up back filling, but this hasn't happen. Sure, stepping up to the plate at the wrong time could be futile. Especially, If one sells during a price decline or too soon; therefore, he or she will realize a loss. I understand the recent prices on certain vintage comics has increased exponentially the last decades and as other asset class. Timing the bubble can be futile for you may not see price declines till many years ahead. I'll take an example of an AF15 8.0 due to the recent record price. In 2008, an 8.0 sold for 70K, leading some folks to calling it a bubble. With an increase 300% in from 2005 levels can raise eyebrows. AF15 8.0 held steady for the next five years and did not perform even par with inflation during those years, but did not decline sharply. Now in 2017 and 8.0 sold for 261K, even I thought 200K is the max during that auction. Possibly we are in a bubble now, or is 300K ,400K, 500K+ for an AF15 8.0 to be at that level to burst. Say if it went to 500K, will it pull back to 400K, 300K, 200K, or 100K, now that's the big question. We both can agree, the recent asset inflation is remarkable after the 2009 financial crisis.

[Gotham Kid]

3 hours ago, piper said:

3 hours ago, Gotham Kid said:

Excellent post.

It applies to pre-Robin Tecs too...

as it should, but preRobins didn't explode at 300%

[showcase22gr1959]

1 minute ago, Gotham Kid said:

as it should, but preRobins didn't explode at 300%

Oh, the pre-robbins I sold did about 300% for me.

[Gotham Kid]

1 minute ago, showcase22gr1959 said:

Oh, the pre-robbins I sold did about 300% for me.

[showcase22gr1959]

Just now, Gotham Kid said:

Sometimes it's good timing, luck and some skills. Pre-robbins will always be loved and enjoy.

[Gotham Kid]

4 minutes ago, showcase22gr1959 said:

Sometimes it's good timing, luck and some skills.

Got any left ?

[showcase22gr1959]

2 minutes ago, Gotham Kid said:

Got any left ?

Not many as you. 

[Gotham Kid]

1 hour ago, showcase22gr1959 said:

1 hour ago, Gotham Kid said:

Got any left ?

Not many as you. 

I recall a 31 1.5/1.8 Q in your sig

Edited June 18, 2017 by Gotham Kid

[delekkerste]

11 hours ago, showcase22gr1959 said:

It appears, the 1952 Topps Mickey Mantle was an item you would keep, but if the price was bubbly, you will sell. It's nothing wrong to take profits, for there will be profit seekers.  I always had an interest to owning a Topps 1952 Mickey Mantle, it was just one of those unattainable artifact when I was young. Inflation has begun to spike the last year and some folks are anticipating much higher inflation than the normal. It was great to have such low inflation the last seven years. The recent gap-up in AF15  prices has shocked a lot of folks and I was expecting some gap-up back filling, but this hasn't happen. Sure, stepping up to the plate at the wrong time could be futile. Especially, If one sells during a price decline or too soon; therefore, he or she will realize a loss. I understand the recent prices on certain vintage comics has increased exponentially the last decades and as other asset class. Timing the bubble can be futile for you may not see price declines till many years ahead. I'll take an example of an AF15 8.0 due to the recent record price. In 2008, an 8.0 sold for 70K, leading some folks to calling it a bubble. With an increase 300% in from 2005 levels can raise eyebrows. AF15 8.0 held steady for the next five years and did not perform even par with inflation during those years, but did not decline sharply. Now in 2017 and 8.0 sold for 261K, even I thought 200K is the max during that auction. Possibly we are in a bubble now, or is 300K ,400K, 500K+ for an AF15 8.0 to be at that level to burst. Say if it went to 500K, will it pull back to 400K, 300K, 200K, or 100K, now that's the big question. We both can agree, the recent asset inflation is remarkable after the 2009 financial crisis.

A few points:

A 1952 Topps Mantle was something that I aspired to own as a kid, though, though, not being a regular baseball card collector anymore, if I had won a PSA 8 example back in 2011, there would be a price I would have sold it, yes.  On the other hand, I own some comic book and illustration art that is much more meaningful to me than the Mantle (plus, they're one of a kind and irreplaceable; the Mantle card, or an AF 15, is not), and I wouldn't sell those for 10 or even 20x what I paid, let alone the 7 1/2 times the Mantle has appreciated in the past six years.  

Inflation hasn't been spiking up over the past year.  The U.S. Consumer Price Index is up only 1.9% over the past year, and the last 3 months' of data are flirting dangerously with deflationary levels again.  Commodity prices are down from year-ago levels (equal-weighted CRB Index now = 398  vs. 432 a year ago), oil prices are down to sub-$45 from $49 a year ago (and north of $100 in 2011-14 and even higher back in 2008) and the price of gold is $1253 vs. $1290 a year ago.  Food and apparel are deflating like crazy; it's the worst environment for supermarkets and clothing stores in memory.  Bottom line:  there are so many secular deflationary factors (technology - not only in computing/networking/communications, but also in resource extraction, alternative energy, robotics, etc.; globalization; demographics/aging population, etc.) looking ahead that there is no great need to hedge against inflation, IMO.  While, of course, random/short-term fluctuations higher can occur at any time, I think it is the height of foolishness to pay up 30-50% vs. six months ago levels as a hedge against 2%-ish inflation.  That will not pay off in the longer-run.  

You're right that of course no one can pinpoint exactly when a bubble will burst.  Having studied and lived through a number of bubbles, I've seen things can go from ludicrously to surrealistically overvalued before a bubble bursts.  So, if anyone is in AF #15 for short-term speculation, or dealing, I cannot admittedly say with any confidence that now is a bad time to buy (assuming the book will be turned over in the near future).  For those looking to buy and hold for the long-term, though, I have seen enough parabolic rises in price to know that they are always followed - EVENTUALLY - by steep corrections.  The higher the parabolic rise, the harder the eventual fall.  Contrary to my friend Chrisco37's opinion, I don't think the fullness of time will bail people out of buying at these levels; I think it is more likely to be the opposite.

Edited June 18, 2017 by delekkerste