THE AMAZING FANTASY #15 CLUB 39 39

[silentassassin]

9 minutes ago, Wall-Crawler said:

Not sure if you are replying to what I said but I noted that the cover being detached is on the label and is cited on the sellers description.

What I was saying is maybe the buyer didn't bother to read them (which would be crazy on a big value book IMHO).  I have had books up and if someone is looking on their phone or just cares about the grade, they may not even read basic info.

Who knows what goes through peoples minds when they bid on these kind of books. I know its hard having so much money laying around I often trip on it so its just as easy to spend it as it is to take the chance to hurt myself on it. 

[SECollector]

4 hours ago, silentassassin said:

WOW, Ebay bid with 5 days plus left for an AF 15 2.5/ Cream to Off White / Cover Detached. Bidder with over 2,000 feedback. 

http://www.ebay.com/itm/Amazing-Fantasy-15-CGC-2-5-GD-Universal-No-Reserve-/201961120604?hash=item2f05d2235c:g:6N0AAOSw7ehXSJwz

 

[zhamlau]

I get the notion of a luxury item bubble occurring here and I agree. On some level everything not explicitly food or shelter, its price is artificial and can bubble or crater depending on whim. So saying this is occurring with AF15 is obvious to me. My questions though aren't with the idea of the bubble, but the actual scale and post effects of the bubble.  If we keep seeing these books hitting higher and higher prices at a rate increase unseen before on a blue chip book, what realistically will be the effect on price on the downside slide of the bubble?

When we say bubble, there is this weird notion that at some point it will "burst". Some big dramatic explosion where the price falls to some fraction of its current value. Do people really think that's whats going to occur at random future date? Like this acute drop in price will occur where owners will lose money hand over fist on resale as it goes back to 2015 prices?

I personally don't agree with that interpretation of bubble or that view on its prices. My thought is simple: The book price will slow down and stabilize where copies sell within 5 percent of a target based on grade and attributes, and those prices will be repeatable for potentially years.  What im more interested in however is how far will that price reduction go. I think it makes sense to think that no matter what occurs going forward, the floor on this book has been raised substantially. I think even after the "De-bubbling" (patent pending) and prices lower and stabilize that 4.0 isn't going back to 10k. That 5.0 isn't going back to 15-18. I would imagine we lose like 20-25% value off current high market value and then we just sit there with a more reserved slower growth rate for a few years before the next cycle starts.  Anyway my

[peewee22]

37 minutes ago, zhamlau said:

I get the notion of a luxury item bubble occurring here and I agree. On some level everything not explicitly food or shelter, its price is artificial and can bubble or crater depending on whim. So saying this is occurring with AF15 is obvious to me. My questions though aren't with the idea of the bubble, but the actual scale and post effects of the bubble.  If we keep seeing these books hitting higher and higher prices at a rate increase unseen before on a blue chip book, what realistically will be the effect on price on the downside slide of the bubble?

When we say bubble, there is this weird notion that at some point it will "burst". Some big dramatic explosion where the price falls to some fraction of its current value. Do people really think that's whats going to occur at random future date? Like this acute drop in price will occur where owners will lose money hand over fist on resale as it goes back to 2015 prices?

I personally don't agree with that interpretation of bubble or that view on its prices. My thought is simple: The book price will slow down and stabilize where copies sell within 5 percent of a target based on grade and attributes, and those prices will be repeatable for potentially years.  What im more interested in however is how far will that price reduction go. I think it makes sense to think that no matter what occurs going forward, the floor on this book has been raised substantially. I think even after the "De-bubbling" (patent pending) and prices lower and stabilize that 4.0 isn't going back to 10k. That 5.0 isn't going back to 15-18. I would imagine we lose like 20-25% value off current high market value and then we just sit there with a more reserved slower growth rate for a few years before the next cycle starts.  Anyway my

The Boards has too many analysts and not enough collectors. 

[zhamlau]

21 minutes ago, peewee22 said:

The Boards has too many analysts and not enough collectors. 

When your collection of paper and staples sells for more than a new car, you cant afford not being both.

[peewee22]

8 minutes ago, zhamlau said:

When your collection of paper and staples sells for more than a new car, you cant afford not being both.

Or a new house...

Yeah, I understand. We need it all. 

[zhamlau]

4 minutes ago, peewee22 said:

14 minutes ago, zhamlau said:

When your collection of paper and staples sells for more than a new car, you cant afford not being both.

Or a new house...

Yeah, I understand. We need it all. 

Yeah I haven't gotten to that point...yet lol.

[silentassassin]

The people who bought these books at the current prices will not simply let the books go for a substantial loss unless their personal situation calls upon them to do so. As far as the prices dropping any all time high usually has some correction of some sort before it flat lines and moves again either up or down. Granted these price increases and decreases can occur in increments so the prices do not mean they will just drop overnight. 

I personally think that the economy as a whole is a ticking time bomb and it will be a matter of time before growth just stops all together or things get much worse. The housing market is fundamentally out of whack, the stock markets are over valued. Many people are having a hard time affording rentals due to the increase in demand for those for several reasons. Comics is not an investment, buy what you enjoy / love and no matter what happens to the value live with it. The price of many comics are increasing and there is not substantial new readership to boast about.

I have considered selling off my entire collection several times just simply due to the elevated prices. I have not sold because I have a FOMO on owning even more valuable books in the future but I am also emotionally attached to my collection which further complicates the decision. There are a lot of things that are not right in today's environment I am quite certain of that. The prices on this book will not magically fall over night until like the Great Recession people are in a position of losing their home / livelihood. That is when all the books will come back out they will not be able to resale at the price they paid and they will come down in price and take a loss. If this happens many copies will come out and be sold at one time further driving the price of AF 15 and other books down to a new normal price level for that time being.

This book will not drop from for example 30K to 15K (Bubble Burst) just like that and if it does most of us on the boards will probably not be discussing it in detail like this because the economy will be so bad we won't have the luxury of sitting around discussing the potential values of comics.

[silentassassin]

22 minutes ago, zhamlau said:

When your collection of paper and staples sells for more than a new car, you cant afford not being both.

 

12 minutes ago, peewee22 said:

Or a new house...

Yeah, I understand. We need it all. 

Like the both of you this is what I am worried about as well. 

[peewee22]

10 minutes ago, silentassassin said:

The people who bought these books at the current prices will not simply let the books go for a substantial loss unless their personal situation calls upon them to do so. As far as the prices dropping any all time high usually has some correction of some sort before it flat lines and moves again either up or down. Granted these price increases and decreases can occur in increments so the prices do not mean they will just drop overnight. 

I personally think that the economy as a whole is a ticking time bomb and it will be a matter of time before growth just stops all together or things get much worse. The housing market is fundamentally out of whack, the stock markets are over valued. Many people are having a hard time affording rentals due to the increase in demand for those for several reasons. Comics is not an investment, buy what you enjoy / love and no matter what happens to the value live with it. The price of many comics are increasing and there is not substantial new readership to boast about.

I have considered selling off my entire collection several times just simply due to the elevated prices. I have not sold because I have a FOMO on owning even more valuable books in the future but I am also emotionally attached to my collection which further complicates the decision. There are a lot of things that are not right in today's environment I am quite certain of that. The prices on this book will not magically fall over night until like the Great Recession people are in a position of losing their home / livelihood. That is when all the books will come back out they will not be able to resale at the price they paid and they will come down in price and take a loss. If this happens many copies will come out and be sold at one time further driving the price of AF 15 and other books down to a new normal price level for that time being.

This book will not drop from for example 30K to 15K (Bubble Burst) just like that and if it does most of us on the boards will probably not be discussing it in detail like this because the economy will be so bad we won't have the luxury of sitting around discussing the potential values of comics.

Alot of the worry and concern depends how much we have invested in the hobby. Maybe just sell part of your collection. And you are correct. Comics will be the least of our worries if the economy turns 180. 

There is a gorgeous 8.0 on ComicLink to be auctioned in July. Maybe it needs to fetch 150k to bring the hobby down to earth again.

[silentassassin]

25 minutes ago, peewee22 said:

Alot of the worry and concern depends how much we have invested in the hobby. Maybe just sell part of your collection. And you are correct. Comics will be the least of our worries if the economy turns 180. 

There is a gorgeous 8.0 on ComicLink to be auctioned in July. Maybe it needs to fetch 150k to bring the hobby down to earth again.

Part of my problem is that once I bring a book in, its like "It Shall Never Leave" 

[jabats]

A lot of the theories here suggest that "hard asset classes overall" (including fine art, coins, comics, etc) might drop 20% to 50% as a whole, at some point in the future.

I don't necessarily disagree with that.

But I'd suggest that that notion alone, is not damning of this specific book's recent run up (AF15). 

If Golden/Silver/Bronze comics as a whole, drop, say, 33% across the board on average, that doesn't in and of itself imply that AF15 is currently overvalued relative to other high value comics from different eras (e.g. compared to  Hulk 1, Hulk 181, Superman 1, etc)

The run up in comic values as a whole may indeed be mainly related to ZIRP, overheated economy, etc.

But the "extra" recent run up in AF15, is, IMO, a reflection of the supreme popularity of Spider-Man compared to other (even very popular) Silver Age superheroes. In my opinion, even at its prices of 2 years ago, it was an undervalued book relative to other Silver Age keys when you consider the characters' relative global popularity.

[spidyfan06]

that 8.0 now on CL was a 7.0 sold on CC a few years back....

http://www.comicconnect.com/bookDetail.php?id=673705

 

[VintageComics]

1 hour ago, spidyfan06 said:

that 8.0 now on CL was a 7.0 sold on CC a few years back....

http://www.comicconnect.com/bookDetail.php?id=673705

 

Do you see a pattern forming here?

Upgradeable CGC 7.0 goes for a record price.

Maybe I have some idea of what I'm talking about?

GPA shows a copy @ $65K in Nov 2016 but I don't think that is when this copy sold.

Do you know when that copy sold?

It must have been an old sale as there is no date listed on the site.

[lou_fine]

8 hours ago, silentassassin said:

The people who bought these books at the current prices will not simply let the books go for a substantial loss unless their personal situation calls upon them to do so.

+1

I agree that the small handful of people who brought these AF 15's at recent record setting prices will certainly not want to let them go at substantially lower prices. 

The only problem is that the dozens and dozens of collectors who brought their copies at substantially lower prices years ago will be more than willing to sell their copies at huge profit margins once they see the AF 15 market start to take a downward turn.   

They are the ones who will see this as a signal to cash in their paper profits and convert them into real life dollars.   

Edited June 24, 2017 by lou_fine

[Spiderturtle]

18 minutes ago, lou_fine said:

+1

I agree that the small handful of people who brought these AF 15's at recent record setting prices will certainly not want to let them go at substantially lower prices. 

The only problem is that the dozens and dozens of collectors who brought their copies at substantially lower prices years ago will be more than willing to sell their copies at huge profit margins once they see the AF 15 market start to take a downward turn.   

They are the ones who will see this as a signal to cash in their paper profits and convert them into real life dollars.   

Sounds about right

[jabats]

Sign of a bubble about to end... the last of the bears capitulate.

we're not quite there yet with AF15  ... plenty of bears to keep this bull run going ! 

[gadzukes]

11 hours ago, zhamlau said:

When your collection of paper and staples sells for more than a new car, you cant afford not being both.

You just made me realize, I have never paid more than $5000 for a car (and I'm 55 now) but I have probably spent more than $5000 on a comic at least 10 times.  Does that mean there's something wrong with me?

Edited June 24, 2017 by gadzukes

[piper]

7 minutes ago, gadzukes said:

You just made me realize, I have never paid more than $5000 for a car (and I'm 55 now) but I have probably spent more than $5000 on a comic at least 10 times.  Does that mean there's something wrong with me?

It means you have your priorities right!

[spidyfan06]

that AF 7.0 was sold in june 2016