THE AMAZING FANTASY #15 CLUB 39 39

[blazingbob]

1 hour ago, delekkerste said:

I agree that comic art is overvalued too - I believe I said as much somewhere earlier in this thread.  That said, you are wrong that I'm still buying it - I stopped buying in 2015; everything I've acquired since then has been in trade for other pieces (whether direct trade or selling to buy).  In fact, I have been actively selling over the past 18 months or so.  IMO, we will look back in 5-10 years and realize that 2016-2018 was a GREAT time to have been selling assets at overinflated valuations.  Today, it's all about fear of missing out.  Within a couple of years, it will be back to fear of loss. 

Plus, let's face it - if all my art went to zero, I would still be fine (unhappy, but financially still perfectly fine).  Not sure the same can be said of all the would-be Warren Buffetts out there whose retirement funds largely consist of overinflated collectibles.

I don't think that intrinsic value is a meaningful concept when it comes to art/collectibles.  Yes, you're right - we can "prove" that a security with measurable cash flows is overvalued or not, but, a collectible is worth whatever someone will pay for it.  That said, there are numerous metrics you can look at over time, such as price to avg. income, historical return vs. inflation rate (sustainable or due for mean reversion?), price vs. other tangible assets and, together, you can come to an informed opinion.  

1.  I don't invest in art.

2.  I don't invest in gold/silver stocks (I occasionally trade them, though, as I do numerous other stocks).

3.  I don't invest in cars (overpriced or not). 

4.  Any other questions?

My buddy left his senior post at your favorite credit card company this summer.  He knows the stock is stupidly overvalued and is just being pushed up by lemming fund managers who "have to own it" (until they don't...)  I'd trust his judgment over that sheep analyst's at Mo-ron Stanley any day.  Smart money doesn't stick around and try to wring every cent out of an unsustainably overvalued stock.  Maybe it keeps going up for a while, but, when we look back in 5 years, I think my friend will look very good bailing out when he did.  

I don't think buying most assets at present (over)valuations is going to result in the kind of returns people are hoping for over the next 5-10 years.  We're in the Everything Bubble...caveat emptor. 

  10 hours ago, blazingbob said:

So is the art you buy but you still buy it.

 

I agree that comic art is overvalued too - I believe I said as much somewhere earlier in this thread.  That said, you are wrong that I'm still buying it - I stopped buying in 2015; everything I've acquired since then has been in trade for other pieces (whether direct trade or selling to buy). 

Trade is selling Gene.  You value your piece,  you take a piece at a perceived value so you are still buying/selling.   Don't spin this that you are above the rest of us when it comes to Art.  I know it must pain you to hang around with us commoners.     

[delekkerste]

10 minutes ago, blazingbob said:

Trade is selling Gene.  You value your piece,  you take a piece at a perceived value so you are still buying/selling.   Don't spin this that you are above the rest of us when it comes to Art.  I know it must pain you to hang around with us commoners.     

You're the one trying to spin this like I'm buying despite thinking prices are overvalued.  The bottom line is that I have not put any net new money into the hobby since 2015 and am actively selling more than buying these days.  Not bullish.  Not buying.  Taking a little off the table on balance - you should take some of that sweet, sweet comic money and buy some art from me.   

No contradictions at all; I don't know that it gets any more straightforward than not putting a dime of new money into the hobby in almost 2 years.  

Edited October 23, 2017 by delekkerste

[Glassman10]

Back when I lived in Santa Fe, Forest Fenn had a gallery known for selling high end period art from all techniques. He said one thing I totally agreed with at one point which was that everyone has their unit value and that is the amount of money they will spend on something without a conversation taking place. He said for some people that was five dollars, for some it was 500 dollars but it was always there as a sale killer. I used to hate it when the husbands would come to our gallery, dragged along unwillingly and they could really kill a sale. So, I had the furnaces outside under a roof and I set up seating for those guys. I had a TV up above my reheating furnace and I gave away free beer. I jabbered away explaining why I did things.  They loved it and meanwhile their credit card was getting melted down inside. After the crash in 2008, very few galleries survived it and the Santa Fe Art market has suffered since. 

Oh, The final part of Forest's assessment was that he only wanted people with a 20K unit value coming into Fenn Gallery. I was OK with that.

The part that pissed me off however was when he said he would rather sell a second rate painting by a well known artist than to sell a first class painting by an unknown artist.  Buying. and selling is a strange affair. 

Dale Chihuly is a well known glass artist to some and he came to Santa Fe in 1974 and worked for a few months, sometimes at my place and sometimes at the Indian School. He was fairly prolific and  a number of pieces stayed around town from the blanket cylinder series. . I bought three at differing times at the flea market north of town for nothing since no one knew what they were.  Venue, venue venue...

Is it not the case that the original cover artwork by R. Crumb for Fritz the Cat went for about 700K not that long ago?

Edited October 23, 2017 by Glassman10

[blazingbob]

32 minutes ago, delekkerste said:

You're the one trying to spin this like I'm buying despite thinking prices are overvalued.  The bottom line is that I have not put any net new money into the hobby since 2015 and am actively selling more than buying these days.  Not bullish.  Not buying.  Taking a little off the table on balance - you should take some of that sweet, sweet comic money and buy some art from me.   

No contradictions at all; I don't know that it gets any more straightforward than not putting a dime of new money into the hobby in almost 2 years.  

Then I guess neither am I.  I am just buying and selling books from money that I started my company with years ago.  

[delekkerste]

4 minutes ago, blazingbob said:

Then I guess neither am I.  I am just buying and selling books from money that I started my company with years ago.  

Dealing <> collecting  

Edited October 23, 2017 by delekkerste

[blazingbob]

1 minute ago, delekkerste said:

You're a dealer; why would this not be the case?  

Because all of this will come crashing down.  This is not the first time you have eloquently written out the collectibles doomsday post.  Which is fine but I've seen it for a long time.  Eventually you will be right and I'm sure you will have your day in the sun.  

[Glassman10]

And Lehman Brothers came crashing down and so did AIG. If the gov hadn't intervened in the credit markets the remarkable recovery referred to well might not have occurred at all. . Bailing out GM was a nice little intervention too and the gov made money on it while saving about one million jobs in the general industry.  The recovery in 2009 was not guided by natural market forces in my mind. 

[blazingbob]

18 minutes ago, Glassman10 said:

And Lehman Brothers came crashing down and so did AIG. If the gov hadn't intervened in the credit markets the remarkable recovery referred to well might not have occurred at all. . Bailing out GM was a nice little intervention too and the gov made money on it while saving about one million jobs in the general industry.  The recovery in 2009 was not guided by natural market forces in my mind. 

Actually the wild wild west of derivatives and the slicing/dicing of mortgages (interest part, 1st 10 years of payments,  2nd 10 years of payments,  3rd etc) into little pieces that the banks could package and sell by Wall Street had a lot to do with the crash of 2008/2009.  Extremely loose credit standards by the banks,  Wall street firms eager to slice/dice and package up those pieces all "Guaranteed" by Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac.   Because as we all know Wall street is so transparent and clear with how they do business.  Wall Street firms riding the Mortgage wave,  40x/50x leverage and when the lines of credit got cut off down it came.  And when the dust settled none of them go to prison and the taxpayers wind up holding the bag.    

Edited October 23, 2017 by blazingbob

[peewee22]

To all: No one knows what the future will hold. Just God.

To all you strategists and analysts:  Live for now and buy what you enjoy. There is no financial model for the comic book to my knowledge.

 

 

Edited October 23, 2017 by peewee22

[blazingbob]

33 minutes ago, delekkerste said:

Dealing <> collecting  

You are my Peter Schiff of Comics.  Gold will hit $5K.  

[Glassman10]

11 minutes ago, blazingbob said:

Actually the wild wild west of derivatives and the slicing/dicing of mortgages (interest part, 1st 10 years of payments,  2nd 10 years of payments,  3rd etc) into little pieces that the banks could package and sell by Wall Street had a lot to do with the crash of 2008/2009.  Extremely loose credit standards by the banks,  Wall street firms eager to slice/dice and package up those pieces all "Guaranteed" by Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac.   Because as we all know Wall street is so transparent and clear with how they do business.  Wall Street firms riding the Mortgage wave,  40x/50x leverage and when the lines of credit got cut off down it came.  And when the dust settled none of them go to prison and the taxpayers wind up holding the bag.    

I do get all that. Between "the big Short" and "Too big to fail " were my entertainment reading in the doom and gloom days. I always thought it interesting that the guy who wrote "Money Ball" also wrote "The Big Short". It certainly trashed the art market. 

Cut up like lettuce. Buy the bottom 10 percent. What can possibly go wrong?

[blazingbob]

1 minute ago, Glassman10 said:

I do get all that. Between "the big Short" and "Too big to fail " were my entertainment reading in the doom and gloom days. I always thought it interesting that the guy who wrote "Money Ball" also wrote "The Big Short". It certainly trashed the art market. 

Cut up like lettuce. Buy the bottom 10 percent. What can possibly go wrong?

Of course those mortgage backed securities were all "AAA" rated.  Didn't matter that math genius's couldn't figure out what these securities were worth when it all came crashing down.  You never really knew how much of this was on the banks and wall street firms books until they couldn't borrow against them anymore.  Cut the money cord and it all came crashing down.  Didn't matter that deriatives didn't trade on the open markets.  

[delekkerste]

51 minutes ago, blazingbob said:

Because all of this will come crashing down.  This is not the first time you have eloquently written out the collectibles doomsday post.  Which is fine but I've seen it for a long time.  Eventually you will be right and I'm sure you will have your day in the sun.  

I don't know about you, but I prefer not to dwell on the past and instead to look at the facts as they are now and look forward.   

I've also been known to get it right every now and again.  Not to pick at old wounds, but I said repeatedly in 2013-14 that oil stocks and MLPs were absurdly overvalued and were going to crash (which they did spectacularly between late 2014 and early 2016).  IMO, the same will happen with cryptocurrencies at some point over the next couple of years and probably with a lot of cult stocks and overhyped art & collectibles as well.     

21 minutes ago, blazingbob said:

You are my Peter Schiff of Comics.  Gold will hit $5K.  

I started a thread that was bullish about gold when it was $500/oz.  That was back in 2005.  Doesn't mean that I am some permabull about gold or that I work in the gold industry or named my kid Auric or think that it's going to $5,000.  I think gold is currently in the range of fair value, while most other assets are dangerously overvalued.  Not exactly ragingly bullish.   

I'm probably closer to being the Harry Dent of comics than the Peter Schiff of comics.  In the long run, I feel that demography is destiny and that there's simply not going to be enough demand (aggregate interest + financial resources) to clear the market at ever-escalating prices during the next generational changeover.  Now, that may not be for another 15-25 years if we're lucky (not that we couldn't get a cyclical correction before then, as I speak of above, or that the supply/demand balance at the margin couldn't worsen sooner than that).    

Edited October 23, 2017 by delekkerste

[delekkerste]

26 minutes ago, peewee22 said:

To all you strategists and analysts:  Live for now and buy what you enjoy. There is no financial model for the comic book to my knowledge.

There wasn't a financial model for tulip bulbs either.  

[Glassman10]

3 minutes ago, delekkerste said:

There wasn't a financial model for tulip bulbs either.  

Indeed. Just ask Turkey. 

[Sweet Lou 14]

1 hour ago, peewee22 said:

To all: No one knows what the future will hold. Just God.

 

 

Also Kang the Conqueror.

[yanksarod22]

I thought this was supposed to be a af 15 club not stock market ....stick to it boys

[SECollector]

2 hours ago, blazingbob said:

Eventually you will be right and I'm sure you will have your day in the sun.  

I think of this each and every time someone "predicts" the burst of whichever bubble and comes with whatever analysis to support it.  I know pretty much nothing about economics, I am totally clueless. But even someone naive like me understands that economy is cyclic. The advantage of those who "predict" it is of course the lack of time frame. If the devaluation of real estate, stocks, collectibles or whatever, happens tomorrow or in 3 generations they will still get to say "I told you so". Well... yay.

[delekkerste]

27 minutes ago, SECollector said:

I know pretty much nothing about economics, I am totally clueless. 

But even someone naive like me understands that economy is cyclic. 

You say you are "totally clueless", but understanding that the economy is cyclical puts you in rarified company in this thread. 

Edited October 23, 2017 by delekkerste

[Callaway29]

More like this thread is cyclical. Same stuff regurgitated over and over...