THE AMAZING FANTASY #15 CLUB 39 39

[ComicConnoisseur]

7 hours ago, Glassman10 said:

Back when I lived in Santa Fe, Forest Fenn had a gallery known for selling high end period art from all techniques. He said one thing I totally agreed with at one point which was that everyone has their unit value and that is the amount of money they will spend on something without a conversation taking place. He said for some people that was five dollars, for some it was 500 dollars but it was always there as a sale killer. I used to hate it when the husbands would come to our gallery, dragged along unwillingly and they could really kill a sale. So, I had the furnaces outside under a roof and I set up seating for those guys. I had a TV up above my reheating furnace and I gave away free beer. I jabbered away explaining why I did things.  They loved it and meanwhile their credit card was getting melted down inside. After the crash in 2008, very few galleries survived it and the Santa Fe Art market has suffered since. 

Oh, The final part of Forest's assessment was that he only wanted people with a 20K unit value coming into Fenn Gallery. I was OK with that.

The part that pissed me off however was when he said he would rather sell a second rate painting by a well known artist than to sell a first class painting by an unknown artist.  Buying. and selling is a strange affair. 

Dale Chihuly is a well known glass artist to some and he came to Santa Fe in 1974 and worked for a few months, sometimes at my place and sometimes at the Indian School. He was fairly prolific and  a number of pieces stayed around town from the blanket cylinder series. . I bought three at differing times at the flea market north of town for nothing since no one knew what they were.  Venue, venue venue...

Is it not the case that the original cover artwork by R. Crumb for Fritz the Cat went for about 700K not that long ago?

I seen him on youtube and his stuff is great. Looks like it goes for good coin as well. 

[NoMan]

1 hour ago, peewee22 said:

I got watching that with some kids and I enjoyed it. I think they used real model trains in miniature work which was cool. Then the went to computer graphics and then it sucked 

anyways, talking about falling of the rails..

[Jordysnordy]

6 minutes ago, SC22 said:

The internet (Ebay and so on), conventions and auction houses have taken over a long time ago. So LCS don't count much anymore at all. Unless it is one of those top stores where they keep all the good stuff from the GA and SA.

I never buy anything at LCS stores simply because they don't have anything I want. All they have is a few SA non keys and BA (mostly all common stuff in bins) and newer stuff I could care less about.

Same goes for local sports card shops most only have garbage I and most collectors could care less about that is why they almost all closed. People find all they need threw the venues I specified above and don't even have to leave there house in most cases anymore.

You are missing my point. You are only looking at this with AF blinders on. 15 -25 years ago, ASM was selling 1 000 000+ copies a month. Today if sales top 100 000 a month they are lucky. My point is the reader numbers are shrinking at an epic pace and that is not good for the hobby. You keep saying collectors but a real collector, to me anyways, will not only collect keys/hot books, he will want to collect the title in whole or parts of the title and not just the keys.  To collect just keys would seem more like an investment to me. I would venture to say that most collectors of high grade keys started off like me, buying what I love, actually READING the stories and falling in love with the characters. Without a grassroots foundation the next generation will have no solid connection to the hobby and that is where the trouble lies.

[Sweet Lou 14]

2 hours ago, Gotham Kid said:

You're new to the boards. You'll get used to it.

You're right, I'm relatively new ... and (I would like to think) not prone to getting into heated debates online.  I like listening to what people with different viewpoints have to say, and then I factor all of that in as I go about my business.  I stand by what I said, that was a coherent argument for a particular point of view.  I'm still buying comics though -- not because I'm a speculator looking to beat the stock market, but because I'm a collector with a genuine love for the material and a clear sense of how much of my disposable income / available cash I'm willing to invest in the hobby.

If my comics end up performing as well as money tucked under my mattress, I will still have gotten a lifetime of enjoyment out of this. 

[Glassman10]

when Bob came back from SDCC, he had to unload 40 long boxes from trucks. I'd wager that most of those were not 2.5 CGC or less off interest books. Do you have a notion of how much money is involved in keeping you from being interested in your local comic shop? 

The internet is a two edged sword. When I was a kid, there were absolutely no ads for comic dealers- none. After a while, Rogofsky came on. So if you wanted comics, you needed to live in the "Right Now". These days? It's screw your buddy.  No small wonder that the loyalty leaves you  with less than perfect dealers existing at all. The luxury of choice never existed for me .  The internet will make you or break you. Watch. 

[blazingbob]

If a baseball can go so can comics.

What?  I can dream.  

What,  Star trek isn't real?  

Edited October 23, 2017 by blazingbob

[Glassman10]

2 minutes ago, blazingbob said:

If a baseball can go so can comics.

What?  I can dream.  

What,  Star trek isn't real?  

It's edited for reality. 

[SC22]

33 minutes ago, Jordysnordy said:

You are missing my point. You are only looking at this with AF blinders on. 15 -25 years ago, ASM was selling 1 000 000+ copies a month. Today if sales top 100 000 a month they are lucky. My point is the reader numbers are shrinking at an epic pace and that is not good for the hobby. You keep saying collectors but a real collector, to me anyways, will not only collect keys/hot books, he will want to collect the title in whole or parts of the title and not just the keys.  To collect just keys would seem more like an investment to me. I would venture to say that most collectors of high grade keys started off like me, buying what I love, actually READING the stories and falling in love with the characters. Without a grassroots foundation the next generation will have no solid connection to the hobby and that is where the trouble lies.

I don't see a problem with this maybe they just prefer reading the older material. The newer stuff is not that great. And why would a new collector want  to start reading a series when that series is 500 issues in if not more.

Look at Comic Cons they are breaking records every year in attendance. People are buying books.

The movies are doing great at the box offices and toy sales are sky high and same can be said with clothes featuring superheroes. 10-15 years ago I bet you all these things where not such a huge market. Things change so do what people focus on. If they prefer toys and movies over brand new comic books hey what is the problem with that. If they truly like superheroes they will benefit more buying the older stuff anyway.

Edited October 23, 2017 by SC22

[comicquant]

46 minutes ago, Jordysnordy said:

You are missing my point. You are only looking at this with AF blinders on. 15 -25 years ago, ASM was selling 1 000 000+ copies a month. Today if sales top 100 000 a month they are lucky. My point is the reader numbers are shrinking at an epic pace and that is not good for the hobby. You keep saying collectors but a real collector, to me anyways, will not only collect keys/hot books, he will want to collect the title in whole or parts of the title and not just the keys.  To collect just keys would seem more like an investment to me. I would venture to say that most collectors of high grade keys started off like me, buying what I love, actually READING the stories and falling in love with the characters. Without a grassroots foundation the next generation will have no solid connection to the hobby and that is where the trouble lies.

+10000

[delekkerste]

1 hour ago, SC22 said:

And for 50 years comic book collecting has survived and is doing well.

I don't see a problem with this maybe they just prefer reading the older material. The newer stuff is not that great. And why would a new collector want  to start reading a series when that series is 500 issues in if not more.

The movies are doing great at the box offices and toy sales are sky high and same can be said with clothes featuring superheroes. 10-15 years ago I bet you all these things where not such a huge market. Things change so do what people focus on. If they prefer toys and movies over brand new comic books hey what is the problem with that. If they truly like superheroes they will benefit more buying the older stuff anyway.

The modern comic market (not the market for Modern comics, but, rather, the point since comic collecting became a real thing with a critical mass of back issues, the need for a price guide, dealers/mail order catalogs, the early comic conventions, rising back issue prices, the introduction of specialized preservation materials, etc.) has been around since the latter half of the 1960s.  So, like you said - about 50 years.  The hobby has had its cyclical ups and downs, yes, but is now, at least in terms of market value, at/near record highs, generally speaking. 

But, does 50 years imply a state of permanence?  We're really talking about the nostalgia of only 3 (or maybe even 2.5) generations - the Baby Boomers, the Gen Xers and the early Millennials.  Those who came of age after the comics industry imploded in 1996 and the Internet and mass communications/mobility/globalization splintered peoples' interests in a near-infinite number of directions around the same time will not, with metaphysical certainty, grow up to nostalgically long after comic books like the generations which preceded them.  It's simply not going to happen.  Two decades of low and shrinking circulations means comics totally lost the next generation to the Internet and other alternatives.  You don't see it now because the Gen Xers still rule the roost in the market, but, fast forward enough years and it's going to be painfully obvious that the numbers and money just aren't there.    

If people prefer toys and movies over new comics, there is a HUGE problem with that.  New comics were the gateway drug for virtually all the collectors here and that came before us (any exceptions to this rule are so limited in number as not to matter).  That billionaire who collects Batman?  He read comics as an international student at Georgetown (where my friend was classmates with him; in fact, he was already a fan before he got to college).  No one grows up watching the movies or buying the toys and decides that they need to drop $3 million and change on an Action #1 9.0.  You only get that if you've read comics, gotten to know the characters, the creators, the universes, etc. and been totally co-opted into that world.  And, it's all fine and good to say the older stuff is better (I largely agree), but, the point is, 99.99% of people will never get to the older stuff if they don't get into the newer stuff first.  Please, show me where these new collectors are that skipped new comics entirely and just went straight into the older stuff after seeing a superhero movie.  The only examples you're likely to find are lapsed collectors who came back into the fold because the movies/TV reeled them back in.  But, these won't be the next generation of collectors that is so obviously lacking when you look out, say, 15-20 years from now. 

But, that's the long-term, secular/demographic cycle.  In the meantime, I'm confident that we will have a major cyclical bust long before 15-20 years from now (I'd be surprised if it takes more than 2-3 years given how frothy things are now), not just in AF #15s and comics, but in risk assets in general.  Prices are going up on vapor these days, nothing to do with value or fundamentals.  It's not sustainable and will inevitably lead to a bust like it always does. 

Like I said:  we will look back five years from now and realize that 2016-18 were great years to be selling assets, not buying them.  

Edited October 24, 2017 by delekkerste

[paul747]

8 minutes ago, delekkerste said:

The modern comic market (not the market for Modern comics, but, rather, the point since comic collecting became a real thing with a critical mass of back issues, the need for a price guide, dealers/mail order catalogs, the early comic conventions, rising back issue prices, the introduction of specialized preservation materials, etc.) has been around since the latter half of the 1960s.  So, like you said - about 50 years.  The hobby has had its cyclical ups and downs, yet, but is now, at least in terms of market value, at/near record highs, generally speaking. 

But, does 50 years imply a state of permanence?  We're really talking about the nostalgia of only 3 (or maybe even 2.5) generations - the Baby Boomers, the Gen Xers and the early Millennials.  Those who came of age after the comics industry imploded in 1996 and the Internet and mass communications/mobility/globalization splintered peoples' interests in a near-infinite number of directions around the same time will not, with metaphysical certainty, grow up to nostalgically long after comic books like the generations which preceded them.  It's simply not going to happen.  Two decades of low and shrinking circulations means comics totally lost the next generation to the Internet and other alternatives.  You don't see it now because the Gen Xers still rule the roost in the market, but, fast forward enough years and it's going to be painfully obvious that the numbers and money just aren't there.    

If people prefer toys and movies over new comics, there is a HUGE problem with that.  New comics were the gateway drug for virtually all the collectors here and that came before us (any exceptions to this rule are so limited in number as not to matter).  That billionaire who collects Batman?  He read comics as an international student at Georgetown (where my friend was classmates with him; in fact, he was already a fan before he got to college).  No one grows up watching the movies or buying the toys and decides that they need to drop $3 million and change on an Action #1 9.0.  You only get that if you've read comics, gotten to know the characters, the creators, the universes, etc. and been totally co-opted into that world.  And, it's all fine and good to say the older stuff is better (I largely agree), but, the point is, 99.99% of people will never get to the older stuff if they don't get into the newer stuff first.  Please, show me where these new collectors are that skipped new comics entirely and just went straight into the older stuff after seeing a superhero movie.  The only examples you're likely to find are lapsed collectors who came back into the fold because the movies/TV reeled them back in.  But, these won't be the next generation of collectors that is so obviously lacking when you look out, say, 15-20 years from now. 

But, that's the long-term, secular/demographic cycle.  In the meantime, I'm confident that we will have a major cyclical bust long before 15-20 years from now (I'd be surprised if it takes more than 2-3 years given how frothy things are now), not just in AF #15s and comics, but in risk assets in general.  Prices are going up on vapor these days, nothing to do with value or fundamentals.  It's not sustainable and will inevitably lead to a bust like it always does. 

Like I said:  we will look back five years from now and realize that 2016-18 were great years to be selling assets, not buying them.  

What do you think the "bust" will look like? What do you think will happen to the comic market? You definitely have some good insight and seem very versed on the economy. I read your posts and ascertain from them that your a bear. I mean you ran from Bitcoin at $1,200 and said it was a crazy. Bitcoin broke $6,000 this week , I mean there was huge money to be made and yet you denounced it. At some point you will be right but at many points you have been wrong. I tend to agree with your viewpoint that fundamentals are no where to be found. I really do respect your opinion , I would like to know what you think a comic market or "full asset crash" will look like, are we talking taking assets to zero and saying bye bye to the US dollar or are we talking a crash like 2007 where what was in a bubble popped and what was not just stayed the same. Many people were not affected in 2007, many areas never had the boom to get the bust. I also have been selling here and there and have not been buying many books or art over the last 3 years. Do you think Key comics with be half price or better compared to today's prices?

[SC22]

7 minutes ago, paul747 said:

What do you think the "bust" will look like? What do you think will happen to the comic market? You definitely have some good insight and seem very versed on the economy. I read your posts and ascertain from them that your a bear. I mean you ran from Bitcoin at $1,200 and said it was a crazy. Bitcoin broke $6,000 this week , I mean there was huge money to be made and yet you denounced it. At some point you will be right but at many points you have been wrong. I tend to agree with your viewpoint that fundamentals are no where to be found. I really do respect your opinion , I would like to know what you think a comic market or "full asset crash" will look like, are we talking taking assets to zero and saying bye bye to the US dollar or are we talking a crash like 2007 where what was in a bubble popped and what was not just stayed the same. Many people were not affected in 2007, many areas never had the boom to get the bust. I also have been selling here and there and have not been buying many books or art over the last 3 years. Do you think Key comics with be half price or better compared to today's prices?

He is like a black hole. Loves to paint the world that way.

[SC22]

48 minutes ago, delekkerste said:

The modern comic market (not the market for Modern comics, but, rather, the point since comic collecting became a real thing with a critical mass of back issues, the need for a price guide, dealers/mail order catalogs, the early comic conventions, rising back issue prices, the introduction of specialized preservation materials, etc.) has been around since the latter half of the 1960s.  So, like you said - about 50 years.  The hobby has had its cyclical ups and downs, yes, but is now, at least in terms of market value, at/near record highs, generally speaking. 

But, does 50 years imply a state of permanence?  We're really talking about the nostalgia of only 3 (or maybe even 2.5) generations - the Baby Boomers, the Gen Xers and the early Millennials.  Those who came of age after the comics industry imploded in 1996 and the Internet and mass communications/mobility/globalization splintered peoples' interests in a near-infinite number of directions around the same time will not, with metaphysical certainty, grow up to nostalgically long after comic books like the generations which preceded them.  It's simply not going to happen.  Two decades of low and shrinking circulations means comics totally lost the next generation to the Internet and other alternatives.  You don't see it now because the Gen Xers still rule the roost in the market, but, fast forward enough years and it's going to be painfully obvious that the numbers and money just aren't there.    

If people prefer toys and movies over new comics, there is a HUGE problem with that.  New comics were the gateway drug for virtually all the collectors here and that came before us (any exceptions to this rule are so limited in number as not to matter).  That billionaire who collects Batman?  He read comics as an international student at Georgetown (where my friend was classmates with him; in fact, he was already a fan before he got to college).  No one grows up watching the movies or buying the toys and decides that they need to drop $3 million and change on an Action #1 9.0.  You only get that if you've read comics, gotten to know the characters, the creators, the universes, etc. and been totally co-opted into that world.  And, it's all fine and good to say the older stuff is better (I largely agree), but, the point is, 99.99% of people will never get to the older stuff if they don't get into the newer stuff first.  Please, show me where these new collectors are that skipped new comics entirely and just went straight into the older stuff after seeing a superhero movie.  The only examples you're likely to find are lapsed collectors who came back into the fold because the movies/TV reeled them back in.  But, these won't be the next generation of collectors that is so obviously lacking when you look out, say, 15-20 years from now. 

But, that's the long-term, secular/demographic cycle.  In the meantime, I'm confident that we will have a major cyclical bust long before 15-20 years from now (I'd be surprised if it takes more than 2-3 years given how frothy things are now), not just in AF #15s and comics, but in risk assets in general.  Prices are going up on vapor these days, nothing to do with value or fundamentals.  It's not sustainable and will inevitably lead to a bust like it always does. 

Like I said:  we will look back five years from now and realize that 2016-18 were great years to be selling assets, not buying them.  

Boring (I have a master's degree in sociology and find this boring imagine that.....I never thought I would feel this again after 6 years of reading the stuff of darkness at university....thank the Lord for comic books they save people while the rest of the world tries to crush peoples souls with their God awful reading material)!! All the world is daaaark everywhere I look I see the aaaabyss....it's so lonely I could just lose my mind!! Should have wrote a PHD but no one was listening I feel so lonely!! Darkness is my only friend....my only companion!!

 

Edited October 24, 2017 by SC22

[peewee22]

2 hours ago, Jordysnordy said:

You are missing my point. You are only looking at this with AF blinders on. 15 -25 years ago, ASM was selling 1 000 000+ copies a month. Today if sales top 100 000 a month they are lucky. My point is the reader numbers are shrinking at an epic pace and that is not good for the hobby. You keep saying collectors but a real collector, to me anyways, will not only collect keys/hot books, he will want to collect the title in whole or parts of the title and not just the keys.  To collect just keys would seem more like an investment to me. I would venture to say that most collectors of high grade keys started off like me, buying what I love, actually READING the stories and falling in love with the characters. Without a grassroots foundation the next generation will have no solid connection to the hobby and that is where the trouble lies.

Does it really matter what future generations dig? Many of us may be gone in 20 to 30. 

Not necessarily on collecting the whole or parts of the titles. Maybe I'm wrong, but I don't see GAtor (Rick), Vintage Comics (Roy), and many others running to the nearest hobby store to get the latest Spidey. I mean, what number is it currently on? . But I can tell you what's in every balloon in the first 11 pages of AF15.

The guys I know that love the mainstream (new) comics would never spend 1000+ bucks on a vintage comic. You're talking about 2 different types of collectors. 

 

Edited October 24, 2017 by peewee22

[gadzukes]

I don't know diddly squat about Stocks.  I have an IRA that was not even started until I was in my mid 30s (I am self employed and a procrastinator).  It's approaching $100k which is not great for my age (55) but is better than a poke in the eye with a sharp stick.  For me IRA = boring.

BUT, I do think I have a good feel for comics.  I do most of my investing in comics.  And I have had a BLAST doing it (and on a fairly modest income).  It's been so much fun.  Some of you stock guys might roll your eyes at me, but I'm feeling ok about it.  I've got quite a few Blue Chip books over at the bank.  I've made some dumb mistakes with comics but for the most part I've done pretty good.  Since this is an AF15 thread....... I've got 4.5 AF15s

[lou_fine]

3 hours ago, NoMan said:

4 hours ago, zhamlau said:

Is that from Thomas The Train?

No, I believe that's a train carrying all of the known copies of AF 15 that are in existence. 

[SC22]

2 minutes ago, gadzukes said:

I don't know diddly squat about Stocks.  I have an IRA that was not even started until I was in my mid 30s (I am self employed and a procrastinator).  It's approaching $100k which is not great for my age (55) but is better than a poke in the eye with a sharp stick.  For me IRA = boring.

BUT, I do think I have a good feel for comics.  I do most of my investing in comics.  And I have had a BLAST doing it (and on a fairly modest income).  It's been so much fun.  Some of you stock guys might roll your eyes at me, but I'm feeling ok about it.  I've got quite a few Blue Chip books over at the bank.  I've made some dumb mistakes with comics but for the most part I've done pretty good.  Since this is an AF15 thread....... I've got 4.5 AF15s

Ah sooo refreshing!!

[delekkerste]

1 hour ago, paul747 said:

What do you think the "bust" will look like? What do you think will happen to the comic market? You definitely have some good insight and seem very versed on the economy. I read your posts and ascertain from them that your a bear. I mean you ran from Bitcoin at $1,200 and said it was a crazy. Bitcoin broke $6,000 this week , I mean there was huge money to be made and yet you denounced it. At some point you will be right but at many points you have been wrong. I tend to agree with your viewpoint that fundamentals are no where to be found. I really do respect your opinion , I would like to know what you think a comic market or "full asset crash" will look like, are we talking taking assets to zero and saying bye bye to the US dollar or are we talking a crash like 2007 where what was in a bubble popped and what was not just stayed the same. Many people were not affected in 2007, many areas never had the boom to get the bust. I also have been selling here and there and have not been buying many books or art over the last 3 years. Do you think Key comics with be half price or better compared to today's prices?

I am not congenitally bearish by any means - I was 99%+ invested in stocks until about March of this year (currently about 77% invested, though, the higher prices go, the more I plan to sell).  I bought Bitcoin last year at $600...and sold it at $1200.  Made good money, but not great money.   I recognized its merits but got off the train when I felt it had become fully and fairly valued.  Did I see this magnitude of a bubble coming in Bitcoin?  Obviously no.  But, now that we are in an obvious bubble, it's, well, obvious that it's not going to end well.  Similarly, few thought we'd be at current AF #15 prices in 2017, but, now that we are, even many who are predisposed to be bullish on comics are saying, "whoa, hey now, this is kind of crazy."

Most people here seem to think a comic market bust can't ever happen.  As for the few that do think it can and will happen...I don't think any of us has a crystal ball.  But, in very broad strokes, I think it will happen like Hemingway said:  gradually, and then suddenly.  As in the last downturn, people will initially freeze and sit on their hands to see if the dip is temporary and if they can just ride through it.  We'll probably be months off of peak prices and it still won't be clear to many that a correction has even begun (much as the Fed didn't see the last recession coming even after hindsight had shown we were already in recession at the time).  Eventually, though, some people will end up selling, prices will soften, the market will get illiquid as some sit on their inventory and others struggle to find buyers.  

I think prices are so frothy (some cryptocurrencies up more than 100,000%; Bitcoin up 800% in a year; AF #15s up 20-30% YTD on top of already years of big gains (and remember that, unlike a stock of a company which builds value every year, an AF #15 will never be more than the same AF #15); stocks trading at multiples that are between the 1st and 4th highest ever recorded depending on the metric; interest rates low or even negative in most countries; property prices in the hot markets waaaaay above mid-2000s peak prices, etc.) that the next bust will be substantial.  Not just 10-20%, probably 30-40% at least in the major asset classes, with probably most cryptocurrencies and the junkiest stocks down 80-90%+.  I expect Bitcoin to fall 75%+ from wherever it eventually tops out, which would be pretty par for the course for a burst bubble based on historical precedent.  

As for comics?  If everything else above comes to pass (or any semblance thereof), I suspect that, sure, AF #15s can easily fall 30% or more from peak levels.  People don't think the best of the best art & collectibles can't tank in price?  Is everyone here too young to remember what happened to the art market from 1990-96?  Or the market for Ferraris, trophy properties and all the other stuff that Japanese and other buying had inflated up to absurd levels by the end of the '80s?  What goes up to crazy levels can also come back down.  It's like billionaire investor Howard Marks said (paraphrasing):  no asset is so inherently good that it can't become a bad investment if bought at too high a price.  Or, as I like to say:  it's not just what you buy, it's when you buy that counts.  My corollary to that is that any fool can get lucky and buy low - very few are smart and/or lucky enough to sell high, though.  

Edited October 24, 2017 by delekkerste

[SC22]

16 minutes ago, delekkerste said:

I am not congenitally bearish by any means - I was 99%+ invested in stocks until about March of this year (currently about 77% invested, though, the higher prices go, the more I plan to sell).  I bought Bitcoin last year at $600...and sold it at $1200.  Made good money, but not great money.   I recognized its merits but got off the train when I felt it had become fully and fairly valued.  Did I see this magnitude of a bubble coming in Bitcoin?  Obviously no.  But, now that we are in an obvious bubble, it's, well, obvious that it's not going to end well.  Similarly, few thought we'd be at current AF #15 prices in 2017, but, now that we are, even many who are predisposed to be bullish on comics are saying, "whoa, hey now, this is kind of crazy."

Most people here seem to think a comic market bust can't ever happen.  As for the few that do think it can and will happen...I don't think any of us has a crystal ball.  But, in very broad strokes, I think it will happen like Hemingway said:  gradually, and then suddenly.  As in the last downturn, people will initially freeze and sit on their hands to see if the dip is temporary and if they can just ride through it.  We'll probably be months off of peak prices and it still won't be clear to many that a correction has even begun (much as the Fed didn't see the last recession coming even after hindsight had shown we were already in recession at the time).  Eventually, though, some people will end up selling, prices will soften, the market will get illiquid as some sit on their inventory and others struggle to find buyers.  

I think prices are so frothy (some cryptocurrencies up more than 100,000%; Bitcoin up 800% in a year; AF #15s up 20-30% YTD on top of already years of big gains (and remember that, unlike a stock of a company which builds value every year, an AF #15 will never be more than the same AF #15); stocks trading at multiples that are between the 1st and 4th highest ever recorded depending on the metric; interest rates low or even negative in most countries; property prices in the hot markets waaaaay above mid-2000s peak prices, etc.) that the next bust will be substantial.  Not just 10-20%, probably 30-40% at least in the major asset classes, with probably most cryptocurrencies and the junkiest stocks down 80-90%+.  I expect Bitcoin to fall 75%+ from wherever it eventually tops out, which would be pretty par for the course for a burst bubble based on historical precedent.  

As for comics?  If everything else above comes to pass (or any semblance thereof), I suspect that, sure, AF #15s can easily fall 30% or more from peak levels.  People don't think the best of the best art & collectibles can't tank in price?  Is everyone here too young to remember what happened to the art market from 1990-96?  Or the market for Ferraris, trophy properties and all the other stuff that Japanese and other buying had inflated up to absurd levels by the end of the '90s?  What goes up to crazy levels can also come back down.  It's like billionaire investor Howard Marks said (paraphrasing):  no asset is so inherently good that it can't become a bad investment if bought at too high a price.  Or, as I like to say:  it's not just what you buy, it's when you buy that counts.  My corollary to that is that any fool can get lucky and buy low - very few are smart and/or lucky enough to sell high, though.  

The end is Nye!! Let's all rush to sell!! Sell, sell and sell!! The comic book prophecies have been foretold the signs of the end are here!! The Beast of Revelations has shown it's head!!

Edited October 24, 2017 by SC22

[peewee22]

13 minutes ago, delekkerste said:

I am not congenitally bearish by any means - I was 99%+ invested in stocks until about March of this year (currently about 77% invested, though, the higher prices go, the more I plan to sell).  I bought Bitcoin last year at $600...and sold it at $1200.  Made good money, but not great money.   I recognized its merits but got off the train when I felt it had become fully and fairly valued.  Did I see this magnitude of a bubble coming in Bitcoin?  Obviously no.  But, now that we are in an obvious bubble, it's, well, obvious that it's not going to end well.  Similarly, few thought we'd be at current AF #15 prices in 2017, but, now that we are, even many who are predisposed to be bullish on comics are saying, "whoa, hey now, this is kind of crazy."

Most people here seem to think a comic market bust can't ever happen.  As for the few that do think it can and will happen...I don't think any of us has a crystal ball.  But, in very broad strokes, I think it will happen like Hemingway said:  gradually, and then suddenly.  As in the last downturn, people will initially freeze and sit on their hands to see if the dip is temporary and if they can just ride through it.  We'll probably be months off of peak prices and it still won't be clear to many that a correction has even begun (much as the Fed didn't see the last recession coming even after hindsight had shown we were already in recession at the time).  Eventually, though, some people will end up selling, prices will soften, the market will get illiquid as some sit on their inventory and others struggle to find buyers.  

I think prices are so frothy (some cryptocurrencies up more than 100,000%; Bitcoin up 800% in a year; AF #15s up 20-30% YTD on top of already years of big gains (and remember that, unlike a stock of a company which builds value every year, an AF #15 will never be more than the same AF #15); stocks trading at multiples that are between the 1st and 4th highest ever recorded depending on the metric; interest rates low or even negative in most countries; property prices in the hot markets waaaaay above mid-2000s peak prices, etc.) that the next bust will be substantial.  Not just 10-20%, probably 30-40% at least in the major asset classes, with probably most cryptocurrencies and the junkiest stocks down 80-90%+.  I expect Bitcoin to fall 75%+ from wherever it eventually tops out, which would be pretty par for the course for a burst bubble based on historical precedent.  

As for comics?  If everything else above comes to pass (or any semblance thereof), I suspect that, sure, AF #15s can easily fall 30% or more from peak levels.  People don't think the best of the best art & collectibles can't tank in price?  Is everyone here too young to remember what happened to the art market from 1990-96?  Or the market for Ferraris, trophy properties and all the other stuff that Japanese and other buying had inflated up to absurd levels by the end of the '90s?  What goes up to crazy levels can also come back down.  It's like billionaire investor Howard Marks said (paraphrasing):  no asset is so inherently good that it can't become a bad investment if bought at too high a price.  Or, as I like to say:  it's not just what you buy, it's when you buy that counts.  My corollary to that is that any fool can get lucky and buy low - very few are smart and/or lucky enough to sell high, though.  

I saw a girl in bell bottom jeans and a guy with the white lace up Converse sneakers the other day.

My English professor told me something I'll never forget. Things go in cycles. They are in they are out. Prices go up prices go down. It's life.