Comic Book Investing

[RockMyAmadeus]

Exactly. There were lots of people selling comics at GD, VG, and FN in 1980. I certainly was by 1983.

 

 

I'm didn't say there weren't decent dealers, or that there weren't dealers who didn't use lower grades (and price accordingly.)

 

The grade designations, however, weren't the issue. For many, many dealers, the books were *priced* at the "NM" price, especially when the Updates came into being, with their single prices, regardless of the actual condition of the books.

 

That exists to this very day. I saw a dealer with 3.0-5.0 books graded "VF", and marked at the VF price...but "on sale" for 50% off...meaning, they were only priced at 3-4 times what they were actually worth.

 

 

[RockMyAmadeus]

 

Not so much with respect to HG GA books as I remembered dealers routinely offering multiples of guide for copies of high grade or pedigree GA books years before CGC even came onto the scene. In fact, it would appear that the multiples for these types of books have actually dropped significantly with all of the GA CGC books out there and auctions that have taken place over the past decade or so.

 

This is very true...along with the proliferation of accepted pedigrees, CGC has taken the place pedigrees once held in the market. The reason people paid multiples of guide for pedigrees was because the peds that were accepted before CGC were a pretty good indicator of quality. It wasn't always true, but if you bought a Mile High, or a White Mountain, or an Allentown, you were more likely than not going to get an actual very high grade, very high quality beauty.

 

Now that there's CGC, that dynamic is no longer in place, and peds...especially those designated after the advent of CGC....no longer carry the premium they once did, because they no longer serve the function of assuring a genuinely high grade, high quality book (though, of course, many still are.)

[HighStakesComics]

 

Not so much with respect to HG GA books as I remembered dealers routinely offering multiples of guide for copies of high grade or pedigree GA books years before CGC even came onto the scene. In fact, it would appear that the multiples for these types of books have actually dropped significantly with all of the GA CGC books out there and auctions that have taken place over the past decade or so.

 

This is very true...along with the proliferation of accepted pedigrees, CGC has taken the place pedigrees once held in the market. The reason people paid multiples of guide for pedigrees was because the peds that were accepted before CGC were a pretty good indicator of quality. It wasn't always true, but if you bought a Mile High, or a White Mountain, or an Allentown, you were more likely than not going to get an actual very high grade, very high quality beauty.

 

Now that there's CGC, that dynamic is no longer in place, and peds...especially those designated after the advent of CGC....no longer carry the premium they once did, because they no longer serve the function of assuring a genuinely high grade, high quality book (though, of course, many still are.)

 

I've noticed the parity in reference to the pedigrees and you make an interesting point. Say I went along with that. How then would the anomoly of the Church collection be explained when those books seem to always be priced at 2 to 3 X that of their peers?

[General Zod]

I started out the same way at a mom and pop newsstand. Every Tuesday my friends and I would run to the newsstands after school to get our latest comics. That newsstand is gone now like many others of it`s kind. The newsstand is not dead though. The new newsstand is that iPad and tablet device millions of people now have in their hands. That`s the future of mainstream comic books. Digital comics. The printed modern comic book will continue as a supplement. Amazon who now owns Comixology will probably offer a service that if you want a print comic book version to go with your digital version they will let you print one on demand. The positive I see with mainstream comic books going to the digital newsstands on the iPad and Kindle Fire is this will introduce millions of new readers to comic books. This will lead new collectors wanting those key comic books we talked about which leads to more interest in them, and continues investment prices. (thumbs u

 

That actually would be a great way to end the print monthly when it does happen. Right now I am not crazy about the prices of most digital comics but I know they have sales from time to time which will serve the greater good. The print to demand option would be very interesting.

[Gatsby77]

 

Not so much with respect to HG GA books as I remembered dealers routinely offering multiples of guide for copies of high grade or pedigree GA books years before CGC even came onto the scene. In fact, it would appear that the multiples for these types of books have actually dropped significantly with all of the GA CGC books out there and auctions that have taken place over the past decade or so.

 

This is very true...along with the proliferation of accepted pedigrees, CGC has taken the place pedigrees once held in the market. The reason people paid multiples of guide for pedigrees was because the peds that were accepted before CGC were a pretty good indicator of quality. It wasn't always true, but if you bought a Mile High, or a White Mountain, or an Allentown, you were more likely than not going to get an actual very high grade, very high quality beauty.

 

Now that there's CGC, that dynamic is no longer in place, and peds...especially those designated after the advent of CGC....no longer carry the premium they once did, because they no longer serve the function of assuring a genuinely high grade, high quality book (though, of course, many still are.)

 

I've noticed the parity in reference to the pedigrees and you make an interesting point. Say I went along with that. How then would the anomoly of the Church collection be explained when those books seem to always be priced at 2 to 3 X that of their peers?

 

Reinforcing what RMA said - Pedigrees matter far less now than they did even ten years ago, as CGC has leveled the playing field and I (for one) would rather own a 9.8 than a 9.6 pedigree.

 

Church copies may be a special case, but even there it's not absolute, as there are examples of the top tier books of the hobby where folks know that the respective Allentown or Pennsylvania copy is superior to the Church copy and -- were the books ever put up for sale -- will sell for more than the respective Church.

 

My favorite (anecdotal) example of Pedigree vs. grade is the boardie who owns the Doctor Solar registry set. He started out of the gate by buying the Pacific Coast run, which was basically straight 9.6.

 

He has since upgraded to better copies of many of the books, be they other pedigrees (Twin Cities) or not.

 

The reason for a pedigree multiple is greatly diminished under the micro-grade differentiations of a CGC.

[delekkerste]

I think the change in grading standards, while having some merit, just distracts from the key point at hand. Which, as RMA says, is that "those conditions no longer exist".

 

Yes, comics have gone up for the past 30+ years. I think the wrong interpretation is to assume that comics will always go up. I think all we have seen is approximately one half of the life cycle of a pop culture collectible - the positive up-cycle. 30 years ago, comics were in their childhood, if not their infancy. It's surely at least in late maturity or middle age by now. If I'm not mistaken, the most valuable books of any kind published in the 20th century are now comic books (maybe there's an exception or two, but the point holds). Doesn't sound like a collectible that is in its adolescence to me.

 

Tim (tth2) is always saying how the market has always looked expensive and yet it has always gone up (at least for the cream of the crop). Yes, prices may have always looked expensive, but almost every comic was theoretically affordable for adult collectors back in 1982. Most key books were in the 2 and 3 figures, and even the MH Action #1 was only $25K back then. Which I'm sure seemed beyond absurd, but, mathematically, was still within peoples' grasp. Now, it and many other books are not even mathematically possible for people to afford - and yet, now everyone seems to think they're great buys! We've come full circle.

 

The early stages of a market is where the biggest % gains are made - prices are low relative to potential and risk is high. As a market matures, generally speaking, the prices get higher, the risk gets lower and returns moderate. There's a reason why US 10-year Treasury notes yield 2.5% and Venezuela's yield 11.3% (actually there are many reasons, but you get the point if you're not a pedantic individual_without_enough_empathy). There's no reason why anyone should expect anything but modest returns at best from buying a bluer than blue chip book like AF #15 at prevailing market prices.

 

Of course, for comics, the CGC era ushered in a second period of revaluation and price appreciation. But people should realize that, like Bill (Woogie, not Shad) pointed out, many of the factors behind this growth (online distribution, third-party grading, superhero movies, easy credit/money, demographic cycle) are largely priced in and/or are not permanent. Not to mention mean reversion - whoever said in the comics/car thread that nothing goes up for 20% a year indefinitely is right. It may happen for a long time, so long that it even seems perpetual, but eventually mean reversion kicks in. There is no reason that it won't kick in for comics. It already has for much of the market. I have little doubt that when we finally get to the overall inflection point in the lifecycle of the hobby ("peak nostalgia" as it were), the rest of the market will follow.

 

I'm with Warren B. - over the long-run, I'd rather be invested in productive, cash-generating enterprises than things. That said, if people want to spec a little in comic books or whatever else strikes their fancy, that's cool too. I just think people who are betting the farm or otherwise punching above their weight in their buying habits, or are relying on past performance to continue indefinitely into the future, are going to wind up disappointed. Besides, to paraphrase Gordon Gekko, it's not good to get emotional about your investments. I have one friend in the hobby who probably left a lot of money on the table by not selling when he should have (though, thankfully he did before prices totally crashed on the ultra high-grade Bronze books he was holding before the Census exploded in the CPR/soft grading era).

[delekkerste]

Amazon who now owns Comixology will probably offer a service that if you want a print comic book version to go with your digital version they will let you print one on demand.

 

I can't see how that could be done at a price point that would make sense for both the buyer and seller.

[shadroch]

Amazon who now owns Comixology will probably offer a service that if you want a print comic book version to go with your digital version they will let you print one on demand.

 

I can't see how that could be done at a price point that would make sense for both the buyer and seller.

 

 

I quoted this for brevity.

 

Gene,

Brief answers please..

A portfolio of CGC 6.0-7.0 Top 25 SA Marvels bought at todays GPA.

Is it worth more in five years? Does it beat inflation?

 

[shadroch]

Amazon who now owns Comixology will probably offer a service that if you want a print comic book version to go with your digital version they will let you print one on demand.

 

I can't see how that could be done at a price point that would make sense for both the buyer and seller.

 

With comics approaching $5 a copy, it might be feasible. You'd be eliminating most of the middle men. I never thought I could get a CD of a bands concert, that night, for $10 and yet that day is here.

[Westy Steve]

If you buy comics with an established track record of price growth that was not the result of speculation or hype, you might get a good return moving forward. You can't buy any old book.

 

With respect to the heyday of comic price increases behind us...that's just not true. Compare our demographics to the coin collectors. We're just kids...and yet coins are still climbing. Comics are only now being thought of as "investments", which means they have more room to run, IMHO.

 

Steve

[ComicConnoisseur]

Amazon who now owns Comixology will probably offer a service that if you want a print comic book version to go with your digital version they will let you print one on demand.

 

I can't see how that could be done at a price point that would make sense for both the buyer and seller.

 

With comics approaching $5 a copy, it might be feasible. You'd be eliminating most of the middle men. I never thought I could get a CD of a bands concert, that night, for $10 and yet that day is here.

Amazon prints DVDS on demand for Warners and others. Most are priced affordably.

Here is a good article here about it.

AMAZON creates dvds made on demand.

 

Here is a photo of the Shazam dvd that Amazon makes on demand.

[ComicConnoisseur]

Amazon who now owns Comixology will probably offer a service that if you want a print comic book version to go with your digital version they will let you print one on demand.

 

I can't see how that could be done at a price point that would make sense for both the buyer and seller.

I think eventually the consumer will make their own comic books,and sell on Amazon. ComiXology is a great gateway for that.

It`s happening now with e-books. People write their own e-books, and sell them for $2.99 on Amazon and the Kindle.

The technology is just about there for this to go mainstream for comics like e-books.

Now that Amazon owns ComiXology they will push it on their Kindle.

 

[delekkerste]

CDs and DVDs are easier/cheaper to create, are priced higher and are easier/less costly to ship. I'm not saying it can't be done, but I don't think the demand is there to make the economics feasible.

[RockMyAmadeus]

If you buy comics with an established track record of price growth that was not the result of speculation or hype, you might get a good return moving forward. You can't buy any old book.

 

With respect to the heyday of comic price increases behind us...that's just not true. Compare our demographics to the coin collectors. We're just kids...and yet coins are still climbing.

 

They are....?

 

You sure about that.....?

 

 

Comics are only now being thought of as "investments", which means they have more room to run, IMHO.

 

Steve

 

Comic books were thought of as "investments" decades ago. When Marge Simpson says, on pop culture national TV in the 90's, that "every mother knows to keep comic books sealed in mylar"...and the Death of Superman brings millions of people in to comic book stores to "put something away for their kids' education"...then you have to question the condition of "only now."

 

As a semi-related aside, the newborns in 1992 were ready for college in 2010, and many graduated this year...how much of their college educations were paid for by Superman #75....?

[delekkerste]

Gene,

Brief answers please..

A portfolio of CGC 6.0-7.0 Top 25 SA Marvels bought at todays GPA.

Is it worth more in five years? Does it beat inflation?

 

It's all about probabilities. Many would probably say that it's a slam dunk that these will be worth more in 5 years and beat inflation. I'm not saying that it can't/won't happen, but I think the probability is not the near-metaphysical certainty that you and others probably think. If you ask me whether such a portfolio would beat inflation plus, say, another 11-12% to account for transaction costs, insurance and a 10% auction fee upon resale, I think I'd be tempted to take the under, especially if we're talking about after-tax returns.

[RockMyAmadeus]

Amazon who now owns Comixology will probably offer a service that if you want a print comic book version to go with your digital version they will let you print one on demand.

 

I can't see how that could be done at a price point that would make sense for both the buyer and seller.

 

 

I quoted this for brevity.

 

Gene,

Brief answers please..

A portfolio of CGC 6.0-7.0 Top 25 SA Marvels bought at todays GPA.

Is it worth more in five years? Does it beat inflation?

 

I suspect that if you look at the LAST five years, those books don't beat inflation. I'm not sure, but I wouldn't be at all surprised.

[shadroch]

If you buy comics with an established track record of price growth that was not the result of speculation or hype, you might get a good return moving forward. You can't buy any old book.

 

With respect to the heyday of comic price increases behind us...that's just not true. Compare our demographics to the coin collectors. We're just kids...and yet coins are still climbing.

 

They are....?

 

You sure about that.....?

 

 

Comics are only now being thought of as "investments", which means they have more room to run, IMHO.

 

Steve

 

Comic books were thought of as "investments" decades ago. When Marge Simpson says, on pop culture national TV in the 90's, that "every mother knows to keep comic books sealed in mylar"...and the Death of Superman brings millions of people in to comic book stores to "put something away for their kids' education"...then you have to question the condition of "only now."

 

As a semi-related aside, the newborns in 1992 were ready for college in 2010, and many graduated this year...how much of their college educations were paid for by Superman #75....?

 

My sons education was partially paid for with proceeds on Supes 75, as was Moondogs, Bedrocks and a few thousand others.

 

Why do you keep bringing up copper age when I am talking about key SA books.

 

Where do you think a portfolio of top SA Marvels will be in five years?

[RockMyAmadeus]

If you buy comics with an established track record of price growth that was not the result of speculation or hype, you might get a good return moving forward. You can't buy any old book.

 

With respect to the heyday of comic price increases behind us...that's just not true. Compare our demographics to the coin collectors. We're just kids...and yet coins are still climbing.

 

They are....?

 

You sure about that.....?

 

 

Comics are only now being thought of as "investments", which means they have more room to run, IMHO.

 

Steve

 

Comic books were thought of as "investments" decades ago. When Marge Simpson says, on pop culture national TV in the 90's, that "every mother knows to keep comic books sealed in mylar"...and the Death of Superman brings millions of people in to comic book stores to "put something away for their kids' education"...then you have to question the condition of "only now."

 

As a semi-related aside, the newborns in 1992 were ready for college in 2010, and many graduated this year...how much of their college educations were paid for by Superman #75....?

 

My sons education was partially paid for with proceeds on Supes 75, as was Moondogs, Bedrocks and a few thousand others.

 

That's because you were/are dealers. Dealers make their living buying and selling comic books. We're not talking about dealers. We're talking about investors. That is, people who don't make a living buying and selling comics.

 

Why do you keep bringing up copper age when I am talking about key SA books.

 

Because I was specifically addressing Westy Steve's specific point that comic books are "only now being thought of as investments", by using an example from 22 years ago that showed that wasn't true.

 

No other connection to any other part of the discussion was implied, nor should be inferred. My comment was directed at, and applied only to, my direct response to Westy Steve, and was not directed at you, nor the broader conversation, in any way.

 

I'm not sure why you used the word "keep." I am fairly certain I haven't brought up any copper age examples in this thread.

 

Where do you think a portfolio of top SA Marvels will be in five years?

 

If the US economy remains stable, you will probably make modest returns.

 

If the US economy does not remain stable, you will experience severe losses.

[delekkerste]

Where do you think a portfolio of top SA Marvels will be in five years?

 

My base case is that a lot of things, not just comics, will be worth around what they are worth now in 5-10 years. Maybe nominally higher inline with inflation, but showing very little real (i.e., inflation-adjusted) rate of return. And, why should that be surprising? Every asset in the world today is priced to near-zero interest rates, making the value of a future dollar not much different from a present one. As such, most assets have likely borrowed from future returns in their past 3-5 year performance, so it would be perfect normal, logical, rational and expected that future returns are going to be mediocre.

 

Most people think it's what you buy that counts. More important, though, is when you buy and when you sell. It drives me up the wall when people talk about the stock market returning 10% a year or whatever on average. If you bought at high valuations (like at the end of 1999), you're averaging less than 4% a year (included reinvested dividends). If you bought at low valuations (like at the end of 2008), you're averaging nearly 18% a year. If you bought AF 15 a decade or two ago, you're doing great. If you bought a 9.6 for $1.1 million before the Census ratcheted higher, you'd almost surely have done better investing that money elsewhere.

 

I don't know what edge people have buying the top 25 Marvel keys now. We've probably seen the peak popularity for Marvel superhero films, even if they remain generally popular for some time (and who's to say whether if these franchises will be as popular in 2019 or if fickle audiences will have moved on). We've priced in easy money. We've long ago priced in third party grading and online distribution. We've already been enjoying all of the above coinciding with peak nostalgia for Gen X. Why should the market reward people with anything more than modest returns (at best) on these books from here? Isn't it priced in? Now, if people want to spec on Rom #1 or FP #1 or whatever because they think they are foreseeing something others don't, well, at least that's something, but I don't see why the market should reward anyone any excess return for buying what everybody already knows and likes.

[shadroch]

Where do you think a portfolio of top SA Marvels will be in five years?

 

My base case is that a lot of things, not just comics, will be worth around what they are worth now in 5-10 years. Maybe nominally higher inline with inflation, but showing very little real (i.e., inflation-adjusted) rate of return. And, why should that be surprising? Every asset in the world today is priced to near-zero interest rates, making the value of a future dollar not much different from a present one. As such, most assets have likely borrowed from future returns in their past 3-5 year performance, so it would be perfect normal, logical, rational, expected that future returns are going to be mediocre.

 

Most people think it's what you buy that counts. More important, though, is when you buy and when you sell. It drives me up the wall when people talk about the stock market returning 10% a year or whatever on average. If you bought at high valuations (like at the end of 1999), you're averaging less than 4% a year (included reinvested dividends). If you bought at low valuations (like at the end of 2008), you're averaging nearly 18% a year. If you bought AF 15 a decade or two ago, you're doing great. If you bought a 9.6 for $1.1 million before the Census ratcheted higher, you'd almost surely have done better investing that money elsewhere.

 

I don't know what edge people have buying the top 25 Marvel keys now. We've probably seen the peak popularity for Marvel superhero films, even if they remain generally popular for some time (and who's to say whether if these franchises will be as popular in 2019 or if fickle audiences will have moved on). We've priced in easy money. We've long ago priced in third party grading and online distribution. We've already been enjoying all of the above coinciding with peak nostalgia for Gen X. Why should the market reward people with anything more than modest returns (at best) on these books from here? Isn't it priced in? Now, if people want to spec on Rom #1 or FP #1 or whatever because they think they are foreseeing something others don't, well, at least that's something, but I don't see why the market should reward anyone any excess return for buying what everybody already knows and likes.

 

You did see where I asked for a brief, yes or no answer, correct?