Comic Book Investing

[Silver Surfer]

For thirty plus years, everyone has known that the key books are the ones to collect, and yet they continue to rise. Someone once told me buying Ditko Spideys was like playing softball. No challenge at all. I don't see that changing in the next couple of years.

 

Who knows if that will change in two years. But, I bet it eventually will change, and that those who think of the softball analogy as some kind of truism will be disappointed at some point. Just like Coke shareholders post-1999.

 

I bet there was some wiseguy back then who said that buying Coca-Cola was like playing softball - no challenge at all. Buy it, forget about it, and collect your 15% a year like clockwork. And, it worked for thirty solid years (and probably longer - that's just all the data I could pull off of Bloomberg). Until, suddenly, that was no longer the case.

I think what happened with Coke and other soda pops was the younger generation figured out that it isn`t healthy for them. Coke is loaded with High Fructose Corn Syrup that makes people put on weight, and who knows how many cavities it has caused? I think there is a good number of consumers who are much more health conscious, then their parents or grandparents ever were. Wouldn't`t water be a better investment going forward then these sugary like sodas?

 

Now people drink the sugar free replacements which is probably worse for you.

[WebSlinger]

For thirty plus years, everyone has known that the key books are the ones to collect, and yet they continue to rise. Someone once told me buying Ditko Spideys was like playing softball. No challenge at all. I don't see that changing in the next couple of years.

 

Who knows if that will change in two years. But, I bet it eventually will change, and that those who think of the softball analogy as some kind of truism will be disappointed at some point. Just like Coke shareholders post-1999.

 

I bet there was some wiseguy back then who said that buying Coca-Cola was like playing softball - no challenge at all. Buy it, forget about it, and collect your 15% a year like clockwork. And, it worked for thirty solid years (and probably longer - that's just all the data I could pull off of Bloomberg). Until, suddenly, that was no longer the case.

I think what happened with Coke and other soda pops was the younger generation figured out that it isn`t healthy for them. Coke is loaded with High Fructose Corn Syrup that makes people put on weight, and who knows how many cavities it has caused? I think there is a good number of consumers who are much more health conscious, then their parents or grandparents ever were. Wouldn't`t water be a better investment going forward then these sugary like sodas?

 

Now people drink the sugar free replacements which is probably worse for you.

 

Very true.

[delekkerste]

The scary thing is, after reading your well written analysis, if you substitute the word "stocks" every time you use the word "comics" you could just about reach the same conclusion. The prices of everything could drop, or they could inflate, but both stocks and comics for the most part move in tandem.

 

That is true, but time and a regular investment plan tends to work well in stocks because the underlying companies generate earnings over time (I'm assuming one is investing in index ETFs or are a good value stockpicker and are not buying penny stocks or ridiculously valued story stocks where you can suffer permanent impairment of capital). On the other hand, if people decide that $91K is not the right price for an Avengers #4 9.6 and it tanks by 70%, there is nothing that says people ever have to value it at that price again.

 

BTW, I'm nibbling at an investment in glowsticks (SFXE).

[WebSlinger]

A lot of good info in this thread.......... I see it this way. Anyone who bought comics off the shelf long long ago (50's and in to the 70's) and held them, those are probably the only true winners in the grand scheme of all of this. Sure you can make some cash buy buying and flipping but the average comic book reader is not very wise on how the market works......Those are the ones buying when they should be selling .And if you are in touch wit the trends, you are still not making the gains that the original person who bought the book off the shelf would have, as previously mentioned.

Moderns on the other hand, will not be a good investment for future returns IMO, just to many printed and too many in high grades. What's hot today is nothing tomorrow as everyone brings the thousands that they are sitting on out to market and poof....just like that. Very few moderns if any will ever have the staying power of the older gems.

I have noticed in the last Couple of years that the collections that we all used to love and go see in some random guys basement have become few and far between, decent collections anyway.

 

I had to step away from collecting for about a year, just got back into it. A lot of my HOT modern books were now not worth what they were a year ago as they have been replaced by the latest and greatest modern....... And the last few books I preordered are now going to be movies .....

I always hear Kenny Rogers singing in my head when I deal with moderns..............

well thats my useless opinion anyway........

[Bookery]

Hercule Poirot made the cut, eh? Agatha Christies still selling like hotcakes? Murder of Roger Ackroyd does have a classic ending.

 

Probably not quite as huge as some of the other characters... (Poirot lunch boxes and Halloween costumes I suspect are on the decline in sales)... But he never seems to go away. Books still in print, and every few years a new series or movie seems to pop up (though arguably more of an icon in the UK than here).

 

Another sure sign of a character's popularity decline is when they do make a major movie... it's more of a spoof or deconstruction of the concept... as with "Flash Gordon", "The Lone Ranger", etc. Sherlock Holmes and James Bond are a couple of exceptions, where a barrage of serious remakes and sequels seem to co-exist with a multitude of pastiches.

 

[Bookery]

 

If this didn't kill off the Sherlock Holmes franchise... the character truly is indestructible.

 

[delekkerste]

Probably not quite as huge as some of the other characters... (Poirot lunch boxes and Halloween costumes I suspect are on the decline in sales)...

 

Not as 'uge as zees othair characters? I beg to differ, mon ami!

 

Check out these Hercule Poirot masks that my wife made for our wedding reception last month (and, no, I don't know why she made them - she's just a little like that, but people loved them and the others she made).

 

David Suchet is the definitive Hercule Poirot as far as we are concerned.

[WebSlinger]

Probably not quite as huge as some of the other characters... (Poirot lunch boxes and Halloween costumes I suspect are on the decline in sales)...

 

Not as 'uge as zees othair characters? I beg to differ, mon ami!

 

Check out these Hercule Poirot masks that my wife made for our wedding reception last month (and, no, I don't know why she made them - she's just a little like that, but people loved them and the others she made).

 

David Suchet is the definitive Hercule Poirot as far as we are concerned.

 

That's awesome!

[Sqeggs]

Of course, we keep talking about investing in "comic books", when what we really mean is investing in pop culture icons. Comics are simply one means of expressing those icons... it's sort of like saying are books a good investment for the next 5/10/20 years. Some will be, certainly... but most will just be used books.

 

That said, I put together a casual longevity list of certain popular fictional characters, with the years that I would say they maintained mass-popular status. That doesn't mean nobody knows who these characters are anymore... but that there is a point they ceased being heavily marketed or sought after in a variety of mediums. Some characters have always gotten a boost from movies or TV at a point they may have lost popularity... 1880s Pinocchio certainly got a rebound in the '40s with Disney's movie. It's interesting how many icons dopped out of mass-favor after just a generation or two, despite being as huge in their time as any popular characters are today in ours. I don't know if it proves anything or not-- but I just thought it was kind of interesting. Some of course, are still continuing today, so the length of their popularity is unknown.

 

Harry Potter (2000s-on) (15+ years)

Popeye (1930s-1950s) (30 years)

Buck Rogers (1930s-1950s) (30 years)

Green Hornet (1940s-1960s) (30 years)

Luke Skywalker (1980s-on) (35+ years)

The Brownies (1890s-1920s) (40 years)

Mickey Mouse (1930s-1960s) (40 years)

Lone Ranger (1930s-1960s) (40 years)

Flash Gordon (1930s-1960s) (40 years)

Wolverine (1970s-on) (40+ years)

Spider-Man (1960s-on) (50+ years)

Tarzan (1920s-1970s) (60 years)

Superman (1940s-on) (70+ years)

Pinocchio (1880s-1960s) (90 years)

Hercule Poirot (1920s-on) (90+ years)

Sherlock Holmes (1890s-on) (110+ years)

 

 

 

Seems a bit off for MM. Still the symbol of Disney and alive as an icon, as indicated by the crowds around him at WDW.

[RockMyAmadeus]

To sum up what I had said earlier in this thread:

 

When I got into comics, I got into it to make money. That was my sole and only goal. That I fell madly in love with the medium, and the collecting of it, is a happy result, but not the point.

 

I have always, since I was 10 years old, looked for ways to make money. I tried with coins, but I got in (1982) when the market was at its nadir, I was 10, had no money, and didn't know it would be 20 years at least before I saw any results.

 

In 1989, August, I discovered comics.

 

I read everything I could, learned everything I could, and most importantly: did what everyone else before me had done, and were successful in doing.

 

I bought multiple copies of brand new "hot" books, and went a step beyond the vast majority: I took what I had learned about grading coins, combined with my OCD personality, and applied it to comics. If it wasn't perfect, I didn't buy it.

 

I didn't waste time buying garbage back issues that no one wanted. There were no Star Comics in my boxes, no Superman (ick!), no Wonder Woman, no Archies, none of that. It was all Marvel first, then DC, and Batman, Spiderman, X-Men, in that order.

 

What I did not know, unfortunately, is that once again, I got in at the precise wrong time to be buying new comics (no one knew this.) Everybody who had done what I did had done very well: New Teen Titans, X-Men, McFarlane, Miller, all of the people who had done this for the past 20 years had done very well. Unfortunately, the event horizon on "investing" in new books had been passed, never to return. It's been 22-23 years since a new book became a "hot back issue" within 6 months of its release, and wasn't dependent on a micro-print run to do it.

 

As I've said many times before...if I had done exactly the same thing, and started 10 years earlier, I would be a multi-millionaire by now. 9.8 Byrne X-Men, anyone...? By the dozens...?

 

And forget back issues. By the time I got in, I was entirely priced out of the back issue market. What high school senior can afford to drop $1,000 on a Fine copy of Fantasy #15? No, of course, buying NEW issues at 10% off cover ( ) was the way to go, because those new issues would be worth $10, $25, $50 and I could trade them for a Fantasy #15.

 

 

The only thing I got in on the ground floor of was Valiant, and then only a handful. I sold a complete run of pre-Unity Valiants in the fall of 1993 to a local shop, and did well...but it was only one of two full runs I had.

 

And then the bottom fell out.

 

Since those days, the internet, eBay, CGC, movies, and other things have completely changed the conditions that exist in the back issue market,. It cannot continue as it has been going. There is nothing "new" to be done that will push the market up.

 

Virtually every comic book produced in the last now 40 years has gone essentially nowhere. For every Walking Dead, there are a hundred Brits, and She-Hulks, and Authoritys and Silver Sables and Moon Knights. How much is that Defenders #7 in Fine worth? That's a 40+ year old comic book! When I started, 40 year old books weren't even available anywhere but at cons, whether you wanted to buy them or not, and they were hardly $1 bin fodder.

 

The conditions that fueled the past no longer exist. Sorry, folks.

[HighStakesComics]

The scary thing is, after reading your well written analysis, if you substitute the word "stocks" every time you use the word "comics" you could just about reach the same conclusion. The prices of everything could drop, or they could inflate, but both stocks and comics for the most part move in tandem.

 

That is true, but time and a regular investment plan tends to work well in stocks because the underlying companies generate earnings over time (I'm assuming one is investing in index ETFs or are a good value stockpicker and are not buying penny stocks or ridiculously valued story stocks where you can suffer permanent impairment of capital). On the other hand, if people decide that $91K is not the right price for an Avengers #4 9.6 and it tanks by 70%, there is nothing that says people ever have to value it at that price again.

 

BTW, I'm nibbling at an investment in glowsticks (SFXE).

 

SFXE.........you know what they say. Anytime a guy with a Gordon Gekko avatar recommends a stock you fire in on a few hundred shares minimum. Ill check it out. TTWO and JCP my current Ameritrade gambles.

[Bookery]

Probably not quite as huge as some of the other characters... (Poirot lunch boxes and Halloween costumes I suspect are on the decline in sales)...

 

Not as 'uge as zees othair characters? I beg to differ, mon ami!

 

Check out these Hercule Poirot masks that my wife made for our wedding reception last month (and, no, I don't know why she made them - she's just a little like that, but people loved them and the others she made).

 

David Suchet is the definitive Hercule Poirot as far as we are concerned.

 

 

[Sqeggs]

Every point in this thread has been made at least 20 times ... so here goes 21 times for this one:

 

We are likely at or near the top of the long bull market for comics. Prices have been driven by:

 

1. Baby boomers being in their peak earning years

 

2. The arrival of eBay, CLink, HA, and CC providing an easily accessible national market for comics

 

3. CGC increasing the reliability of grading, providing a resto check, and increasing the liquidity of buying and selling books

 

4. The enormous success of Marvel superhero movies

 

To believe that prices will increase significantly from here is to believe that similar new developments will occur. (Or, better, new developments not currently anticipated.) I've asked the optimists several times to indicate what they think these new developments might be. Unless I missed them, none have been suggested.

 

Obvious bear factors with respect to comics as long-term investments:

 

1. The small readership of current comics and the disconnect between their contents and the contents of GA, SA, and BA comics (and, for the most part, the current Marvel movies). Essentially, GA, SA, and BA collectors are collecting stories/approaches/content that, for the most part, is no longer being produced.

 

2. The aging of baby boomers and the coming disposal of their collections

 

3. The eventual waning of interest in superhero movies.

 

None of these points mean that people shouldn't sink serious amounts in comics if they have a mind to. But anyone thinking that comic book investing is a way to fund their children's educations or their own retirement 15 to 30 years out is making a very risky decision.

[delekkerste]

SFXE.........you know what they say. Anytime a guy with a Gordon Gekko avatar recommends a stock you fire in on a few hundred shares minimum. Ill check it out. TTWO and JCP my current Ameritrade gambles.

 

...it's a very small position for me as it's pretty speculative - a busted IPO from last year that some smart money value guys are now circling around. Not for the faint of heart; I just thought you'd appreciate the "glowsticks" reference as they are the leading producer of live events/entertainment related to EDM.

[HouseofComics.Com]

..."Fine" covered what is now 2.0 to 9.0. Comic books, in 1980, weren't priced at "Mint/Fine/Good" unless they were expensive (read: $1,000 or more), and even then, there was considerable fudging going on.

 

You almost always paid the Mint price for anything that still had the cover attached, ...

 

This is the only part of your long post where we're disagreeing with you. Basically every store was selling back issues, they all had their idiosyncracies in grading, but there were many conservative graders out there. Many people tried to differentiate between GD and VG. I'm sure it was the case in CBG ads too. Fine did not cover 2.0 to 9.0.

[HouseofComics.Com]

A lot of good info in this thread.......... I see it this way. Anyone who bought comics off the shelf long long ago (50's and in to the 70's) and held them, those are probably the only true winners in the grand scheme of all of this.

 

That's what I generally say to people. I was just old enough that my childhood comics are worth at least something but nothing like if I'd been five, ten or fifteen years older. And I'm lucky because the people younger than me can't even say that their childhood comics were a reasonably good investment.

[JTLarsen]

To believe that prices will increase significantly from here is to believe that similar new developments will occur. (Or, better, new developments not currently anticipated.) I've asked the optimists several times to indicate what they think these new developments might be. Unless I missed them, none have been suggested.

 

I'll suggest one: The massive influx of collectors from the rest of the world. American comic book culture has only begun to insinuate itself in the rest of the world. And the rest of the world is only just beginning to rival us in wealth. Chuck Rozanski, I think, has written about how so many of his books are now leaving the country when he sells them.

 

I think prices will continue to rise as a result.

[RockMyAmadeus]

..."Fine" covered what is now 2.0 to 9.0. Comic books, in 1980, weren't priced at "Mint/Fine/Good" unless they were expensive (read: $1,000 or more), and even then, there was considerable fudging going on.

 

You almost always paid the Mint price for anything that still had the cover attached, ...

 

This is the only part of your long post where we're disagreeing with you. Basically every store was selling back issues, they all had their idiosyncracies in grading, but there were many conservative graders out there. Many people tried to differentiate between GD and VG. I'm sure it was the case in CBG ads too. Fine did not cover 2.0 to 9.0.

 

Sorry, but that's simply not true.

 

I've seen it with my own two peepers, and so have hundreds and thousands of others.

 

The existence of conservative grades does not therefore negate the concurrent existence of extremely liberal graders. And extremely liberal (read: over) graders were the norm, not the exception.

 

Obviously, I am exaggerating for effect...but not by much.

[mintcollector]

I think what happened with Coke and other soda pops was the younger generation figured out that it isn`t healthy for them. Coke is loaded with sugar that makes people put on weight, and who knows how many cavities it has caused? I think there is a good number of consumers who are much more health conscious, then their parents or grandparents ever were. Wouldn't`t water be a better investment going forward then these sugary sodas?

 

True. People drink less soda than they did a decade ago, just like people smoke less than they did a decade ago.

 

And there's likely some truth to that last statement - one of the craziest things I ever saw was in the Congress-only section of the Congressional Research Service's library -- there was a whole four drawer file cabinet devoted to U.S. strategic responses to the potential rise of Canada as a superpower if water displaced oil as a strategic commodity in the 21st century.

 

Seriously - some very smart people have been thinking about such as a scenario for a very long time.

I agree and believe you about that.

I also was looking at COCA-COLA collectibles comparing price guides from 15 years ago to today`s prices, and the prices on all these COCA-COLA collectibles have dropped significantly like 50 percent or more. A perfect example of what was popular with one generation might not be popular with a future generation.

 

 

I will attempt to keep this factual, but please do more research before making blanket statements. Coca Cola is also a very popular collecting category with auction records being set almost monthly.

 

http://artdaily.com/news/66860/Morphy-s-brushes--2-million-mark-with-December-6-7-auction-of-antique-advertising-and-coin-op-machines#.U8mO5ctOUdU

 

I have been collecting high end vintage advertising for decades and thanks to television shows like American Pickers and a general media obsession with antiques I have never seen a more robust time to collect these items.

 

Please kindly check out past auction sales at Morphy Auctions (www.morphyauctions.com) before making any statements. Ironically if you read the book you just showed a picture of you would have found an excellent graph that actually shows the investment potential of these items (check out page 27) listed in the chapter entitled Coca-Cola Collecting as an Investment!

 

For many years Coca Cola collectibles have been in the top ten of all collecting categories as noted by several sources (TIAS, etc.)

 

 

 

 

 

 

[mintcollector]

Every point in this thread has been made at least 20 times ... so here goes 21 times for this one:

 

We are likely at or near the top of the long bull market for comics. Prices have been driven by:

 

1. Baby boomers being in their peak earning years

 

2. The arrival of eBay, CLink, HA, and CC providing an easily accessible national market for comics

 

3. CGC increasing the reliability of grading, providing a resto check, and increasing the liquidity of buying and selling books

 

4. The enormous success of Marvel superhero movies

 

To believe that prices will increase significantly from here is to believe that similar new developments will occur. (Or, better, new developments not currently anticipated.) I've asked the optimists several times to indicate what they think these new developments might be. Unless I missed them, none have been suggested.

 

Obvious bear factors with respect to comics as long-term investments:

 

1. The small readership of current comics and the disconnect between their contents and the contents of GA, SA, and BA comics (and, for the most part, the current Marvel movies). Essentially, GA, SA, and BA collectors are collecting stories/approaches/content that, for the most part, is no longer being produced.

 

2. The aging of baby boomers and the coming disposal of their collections

 

3. The eventual waning of interest in superhero movies.

 

None of these points mean that people shouldn't sink serious amounts in comics if they have a mind to. But anyone thinking that comic book investing is a way to fund their children's educations or their own retirement 15 to 30 years out is making a very risky decision.

 

I agree with you 100% as I believe we have made similar points in the past. One of the surprising developments to come about within the past ten years that no one has yet to touch on in this particular thread is the rise of collecting themed reality television shows. As someone who attends a lot of auctions I consistently see people buying items they have no interest in under the guise that they can easily sell it to someone else at a greater price. It is as if the entire antiques and collectibles trade is operating under the guise of 'The Greater Fool Theory.' I constantly hear phrases like 'I saw it on Toy Hunter.' Or that is what the guy on American Pickers said would go up in value. Does anyone really think that these are the signs of a logical and sustainable long term market?