Speculation misses

[the authority]

Darkhawk #1 is a cult classic.

 

+1

 

It fooled me and has rebounded nicely. I agree with your list of misses. I've had plenty. It comes with the turf.

[rjrjr]

A speculation miss all depends on if you are holding the bag once the heat has left the comic I guess. EoW 1 is a miss if you are still holding comic today, but a hit if you sold when they were sought after.

 

Another comic that was a hit was Star War 1 (Brian Wood.) It sold for upwards of $25 at one point. Now, the comic has come back down to earth and can routinely be bought for cover or less in a run with the other issues. So, it was a speculation hit for the first month or so after it was available. But if you are holding it now, I doubt you will see the $25 that it use to fetch for quite some time (decades is my guess.)

 

The Sixth Gun 1 is probably the poster child for speculation misses. I honestly don't ever remember seeing a title fall so fast and so far like that issue. It was hot one minute and cold the next!

[Aweandlorder]

Does anyone have Saga's print run numbers handy?

 

Just curious if it continued growing issue to issue, or if it dipped some before climbing like EoW is currently doing.

 

Saga #1 1st print 37k. Overall over 70k through all 5 reprints. Thats a very generous amount for a book fetching 100 bucks which was otherwise quite accessible the first few months it saw print dont you think?

My rule of thumb for today's market is read new books constantly digitally or in comic format, doesnt matter, just as a hobby, then stock on back issues on anything that makes it past a 5th book if it starts to have a following. East of West is NOT a speculation miss, it fetches over $10 currently and it has a VERY promising future. Thats the same way Saga was.

Image produces quality books, got the marketing concept down packed, and is riding the optioning wave. Thats how the industry works nowadays. This may very well change 10-20 years from now, but until that happens, enjoy collecting and follow the trends.

[Vikingreed]

A speculation miss all depends on if you are holding the bag once the heat has left the comic I guess. EoW 1 is a miss if you are still holding comic today, but a hit if you sold when they were sought after.

 

Another comic that was a hit was Star War 1 (Brian Wood.) It sold for upwards of $25 at one point. Now, the comic has come back down to earth and can routinely be bought for cover or less in a run with the other issues. So, it was a speculation hit for the first month or so after it was available. But if you are holding it now, I doubt you will see the $25 that it use to fetch for quite some time (decades is my guess.)

 

The Sixth Gun 1 is probably the poster child for speculation misses. I honestly don't ever remember seeing a title fall so fast and so far like that issue. It was hot one minute and cold the next!

 

Yep, 9.8 Slabs were hitting 4 digits, then the next day 2 or low 3 digits.

 

I didn't start reading Sixth Gun until issue 30, so I was able to slab up pretty cheap.

 

I was buying slabs for $12 a pop. It was crazy...

[spreads]

A speculation miss all depends on if you are holding the bag once the heat has left the comic I guess. EoW 1 is a miss if you are still holding comic today, but a hit if you sold when they were sought after.

 

Another comic that was a hit was Star War 1 (Brian Wood.) It sold for upwards of $25 at one point. Now, the comic has come back down to earth and can routinely be bought for cover or less in a run with the other issues. So, it was a speculation hit for the first month or so after it was available. But if you are holding it now, I doubt you will see the $25 that it use to fetch for quite some time (decades is my guess.)

 

The Sixth Gun 1 is probably the poster child for speculation misses. I honestly don't ever remember seeing a title fall so fast and so far like that issue. It was hot one minute and cold the next!

 

I don't think this belong in the same category as books like EofW and Darkhawk 1. We're talking about books that were speculated heavy either before or on release, and fizzled out, or didn't take off at all. TSG was an obscure comic, from a company that has a title average print run of 4000, got insanely overheated on pilot development, crashed when the pilot dropped, bottomed out and scaled back up a little. I scooped up a number of 1s at the bottom in the $20 and less range, and since the price has stabilized around 30-40$, with slabs selling very well. I see this book having a cult-like following similar to The Goon; especially with the series continuing past 50 issues.

 

[spreads]

A speculation miss all depends on if you are holding the bag once the heat has left the comic I guess. EoW 1 is a miss if you are still holding comic today, but a hit if you sold when they were sought after.

 

Another comic that was a hit was Star War 1 (Brian Wood.) It sold for upwards of $25 at one point. Now, the comic has come back down to earth and can routinely be bought for cover or less in a run with the other issues. So, it was a speculation hit for the first month or so after it was available. But if you are holding it now, I doubt you will see the $25 that it use to fetch for quite some time (decades is my guess.)

 

The Sixth Gun 1 is probably the poster child for speculation misses. I honestly don't ever remember seeing a title fall so fast and so far like that issue. It was hot one minute and cold the next!

 

Yep, 9.8 Slabs were hitting 4 digits, then the next day 2 or low 3 digits.

 

I didn't start reading Sixth Gun until issue 30, so I was able to slab up pretty cheap.

 

I was buying slabs for $12 a pop. It was crazy...

 

Slabs for $12 a pop? Unless you're talking books in the 20s and 30s I'm calling bs.

[Vikingreed]

Nope.

 

It was the 9, 12, 18, and a couple more, all from the same seller on Ebay who was unloading.

No 1's, 2's, 3's, of course.

 

Not sure why you would think I would lie about that...

 

I will see if I can pull them from a completed listing search.

[Vikingreed]

Advanced search doesn't go back for enough.

 

My 30 on ups came from my sub guy.

 

The rest I bought cheap, except for one sweet SS on #24 I got from Rich Henn.

[the authority]

Vikingreed is straight up. Lying cat would never speak around him. Bet on it.

[the authority]

Nope.

 

It was the 9, 12, 18, and a couple more, all from the same seller on Ebay who was unloading.

No 1's, 2's, 3's, of course.

 

Not sure why you would think I would lie about that...

 

I will see if I can pull them from a completed listing search.

 

No reason to lie and no reason to think you would. (thumbs u

[Vikingreed]

Nope.

 

It was the 9, 12, 18, and a couple more, all from the same seller on Ebay who was unloading.

No 1's, 2's, 3's, of course.

 

Not sure why you would think I would lie about that...

 

I will see if I can pull them from a completed listing search.

 

No reason to lie and no reason to think you would. (thumbs u

 

My man...

 

Thanks for the back up, haha.

[spreads]

Nope.

 

It was the 9, 12, 18, and a couple more, all from the same seller on Ebay who was unloading.

No 1's, 2's, 3's, of course.

 

Not sure why you would think I would lie about that...

 

I will see if I can pull them from a completed listing search.

 

I've watched the listings everyday for awhile, I must have missed those. I saw very few slab listings outside the top 5, I think there were some in the $30-40 range that didn't last on bins. I only buy slabs if they're dirt-cheap, that's how I ended with a #2 SS 9.8.

[the authority]

Nope.

 

It was the 9, 12, 18, and a couple more, all from the same seller on Ebay who was unloading.

No 1's, 2's, 3's, of course.

 

Not sure why you would think I would lie about that...

 

I will see if I can pull them from a completed listing search.

 

No reason to lie and no reason to think you would. (thumbs u

 

My man...

 

Thanks for the back up, haha.

 

You don't need it. You're a high quality dude (thumbs u

[the authority]

Nope.

 

It was the 9, 12, 18, and a couple more, all from the same seller on Ebay who was unloading.

No 1's, 2's, 3's, of course.

 

Not sure why you would think I would lie about that...

 

I will see if I can pull them from a completed listing search.

 

I've watched the listings everyday for awhile, I must have missed those. I saw very few slab listings outside the top 5, I think there were some in the $30-40 range that didn't last on bins. I only buy slabs if they're dirt-cheap, that's how I ended with a #2 SS 9.8.

 

That is ALWAYS a good plan.

[SquareChaos]

Not sure the purpose of this thread except to slam titles. If tv shows don't count then the only current indy comic that's a hit is Saga.

 

I'm glad you said that - well said.

 

I couldn't articulate it when I was previously arguing that EoW is not 'really' a speculation 'miss' even though I did agree that by the definition the arguer was using that it was a speculation miss. If that makes any sense?

 

I bought a few issues of EoW #1, but I never planned to unload them fast. I plan to hold them in the hopes that this series grows in to a classic title. One of those titles that people new to the hobby get told to read when they're asking for suggestions. Something along those lines.

 

I guess if everyone looked at it that way this thread would be damn near impossible to have a conversation in.

[GeeksAreMyPeeps]

Not sure the purpose of this thread except to slam titles. If tv shows don't count then the only current indy comic that's a hit is Saga.

I think I kinda summed that up in the first post:

 

I'm not sure if this already exists, since I'm new to the forum, but I was wondering if there was a (somewhat) comprehensive list or discussion of books that people have proposed were going to be sleeper picks but never panned out.

 

That is, even if the books got some attention and a price pop for a time, were ultimately revealed to not be as key as people thought they might be.

 

A recent example might be Scalped 43. An older one might be Superman #66 (which Wizard had suggested back in the '90s might involve Doomsday's origin, but was unconnected).

 

What other books do you think belong in this category? (Let's avoid the obvious examples of books that had huge print runs because too many people thought in advance it was a can't-miss.)

 

Edited for Clarification: I'm mostly referring to books that have already been out for a time, that, upon a re-read, seemed to contain something key (but didn't) (e.g. Marvel Comics Presents/Coldblood and Scalped 43 were around a while before speculation started that they would be key for various reasons, but turned out not to be)

 

I'm not referring to books that people were grabbing off the rack when they came out (or pre-ordering) expecting that the books would take off. Certainly we could list those all day long. Tons of books from the '90s, and lots of books by Image now, are going to fall into that category.

[krighton]

Yeah, in for the long haul with EoW....i'm sure a lot of people thought Preacher was a monetary bust and then it exploded out of nowhere.

[rjrjr]

Yeah, in for the long haul with EoW....i'm sure a lot of people thought Preacher was a monetary bust and then it exploded out of nowhere.

 

Because of the TV series. As I said, EoW will need a TV series or movie to make any gains. Very few modern comics move any more without other media exposure.

[spreads]

Yeah, in for the long haul with EoW....i'm sure a lot of people thought Preacher was a monetary bust and then it exploded out of nowhere.

 

Ya but Preacher wasn't heavily speculated on in the beginning like EofW. The difference with these books that are heavily speculated on from the get-go have a huge supply just waiting to be dumped on the market on any price movement.

[GeeksAreMyPeeps]

Yeah, in for the long haul with EoW....i'm sure a lot of people thought Preacher was a monetary bust and then it exploded out of nowhere.

 

Ya but Preacher wasn't heavily speculated on in the beginning like EofW. The difference with these books that are heavily speculated on from the get-go have a huge supply just waiting to be dumped on the market on any price movement.

And that is one of the things I was trying to get out in my OP. Books that were seemingly just another book in a run when they came out, that one later thought contained something that might be significant. But I don't expect people are going to share their sleepers that might still pan out, so I figured I'd limit the topic to where it didn't pan out.