Cerebus 1 a more valuable key than Hulk 181? Really Overstreet? Poll on Page 87 3 3

[bronze johnny]

44 minutes ago, Jaydogrules said:

Wait.  

Not so fast.  

A 9.2 Hulk 181 just sold for $4500.

$9k for a 1 of 2 top of the census copy 9.4 cerebus 1 is nothing all that great to write home about really.  

Usually top of the census copies are a 9.8.  Usually the next lowest grade is 9.6.  For cerebus 1 the top is 9.4.  The second highest is then 9.2. The multiplier in value from a 9.6 to a 9.8 is usually about 2X.  If we leveled the playing field between the books based on census population (and let's face it, you are being completely disnegenous if you don't do that), we would expect a Cerberus 9.2 to have an "at best" FMV of $4500.  Do I think a 9.2 would actually sell for that ?  Hell no.  At least not without sitting a good long time.  Would one move for  $3500?  Probably.  But if it was sitting next to 10 Hulk 9.2, 181's at a convention for the same price, how many Hulk 181's would you expect would sell before that one random niche collector strolls around to look at the cerebus?   Probably all 10 of the 181s would sell first. Or at least most of them.  

And whereas hulk 181 has always spanked cerebus 1 in every grade below 9.0, guess what has happened to the 9.0 181's since this thread was started?   They now sell for a comparable amount of what cerebus 1 sells for in a 9.0, and more  Meanwhile, pitifully, a 9.0 cerebus 1 SS file copy you name it, just went for $3600 in April 2017- a mere $1300 more than the last copy that sold for nearly three years ago. (and keep in mind that there are only five copies of that in that grade in SS.)

So is cerebus 1 "really" worth more than a hulk 181, even in a 9.2?

No.  Not in the real world anyway.   

-J.

 Excellent points J. Applying the existing sales of Cerebus 1 doesn't tell the whole story. 

Cerebus 1 a more valuable key than Hulk 181?

Nope.

 

Edited June 3, 2017 by bronze johnny

[bronze johnny]

1 hour ago, SC22 said:

IH 180 deserves more respect but the cover is just not cool like IH 181!!

If your saying that Hulk 180 deserves the respect for Wolverine showing up in the last panel then I agree. Hulk 181 is the definitive first appearance of the Wolverine nevertheless. Defining an appearance requires more than showing up in one panel.

Edited June 3, 2017 by bronze johnny

[SC22]

37 minutes ago, bronze johnny said:

If your saying that Hulk 180 deserves the respect for Wolverine showing up in the last panel then I agree. Hulk 181 is the definitive first appearance of the Wolverine nevertheless. Defining an appearance requires more than showing up in one panel.

I will always prefer IH 181 the cover has it all!!

[bronze johnny]

9 hours ago, SC22 said:

I will always prefer IH 181 the cover has it all!!

Absolutely. 

 

[FlyingDonut]

12 hours ago, bronze johnny said:

 Excellent points J. Applying the existing sales of Cerebus 1 doesn't tell the whole story. 

Cerebus 1 a more valuable key than Hulk 181?

Nope.

 

Except for the little things called "facts" and "data". Applying the existing sales of Cerebus tells the ONLY story, and I am only talking about 9.2 or higher - as we have talked about throughout this entire thread.

Ask any dealer in America - if they were offered a graded 9.4 Cerebus 1 or a 9.4 Incredible Hulk 181 which one would they take. They would take the Cerebus every time. If they don't want the Cerebus 1 and would rather have the Hulk 181? They would take the Cerebus 1, sell it for 8-10K, buy a Hulk 181 in 9.6 - the most recent reported sale was for $6,900 in June 2017, and today is June 3, so that's pretty fresh data  - and keep the change.

Cerebus 1 in 9.4 is - without question and empirically proven by the data - a more valuable book than Hulk 181 in 9.4. Cerebus 1 in 9.2 is - most likely but cannot be empirically proven because there simply aren't enough sales - a more valuable book than Hulk 181 in 9.2. Take your personal opinions out of it and look at the data. The numbers simply do not lie.

[bronze johnny]

2 hours ago, FlyingDonut said:

Except for the little things called "facts" and "data". Applying the existing sales of Cerebus tells the ONLY story, and I am only talking about 9.2 or higher - as we have talked about throughout this entire thread.

Ask any dealer in America - if they were offered a graded 9.4 Cerebus 1 or a 9.4 Incredible Hulk 181 which one would they take. They would take the Cerebus every time. If they don't want the Cerebus 1 and would rather have the Hulk 181? They would take the Cerebus 1, sell it for 8-10K, buy a Hulk 181 in 9.6 - the most recent reported sale was for $6,900 in June 2017, and today is June 3, so that's pretty fresh data  - and keep the change.

Cerebus 1 in 9.4 is - without question and empirically proven by the data - a more valuable book than Hulk 181 in 9.4. Cerebus 1 in 9.2 is - most likely but cannot be empirically proven because there simply aren't enough sales - a more valuable book than Hulk 181 in 9.2. Take your personal opinions out of it and look at the data. The numbers simply do not lie.

 

Narrowly tailored arguments based on limited empirical data is fine. Taking the totality of the circumstances when assessing an issue is also fine when the existing empirical data is limited. It then becomes a question of interpretation. Comparing the highest graded copy for one book to one that is not doesn't tell the whole story.  It's an argument that has been made throughout this entire thread. The reason why I started this thread. The correct comparison would be the highest graded copy of Cerebus v. that of Hulk 181 if we are going to fairly compare a Marvel mainstream book to an independently published comic that had a print run of 3000 and hit how many newstands when it first came out?  

Ask any dealer which comic they would take first? The existing highest graded copy of Hulk 181 or Cerebus 1 and then see what the answer is? Also ask 100 BA collectors the same question and see what their answer is?

Edited June 3, 2017 by bronze johnny

[bronze johnny]

16 minutes ago, bronze johnny said:

Really hate this new format!

Edited June 3, 2017 by bronze johnny

[FlyingDonut]

55 minutes ago, bronze johnny said:

 

Narrowly tailored arguments based on limited empirical data is fine. Taking the totality of the circumstances when assessing an issue is also fine when the existing empirical data is limited. It then becomes a question of interpretation. Comparing the highest graded copy for one book to one that is not doesn't tell the whole story.  It's an argument that has been made throughout this entire thread. The reason why I started this thread. The correct comparison would be the highest graded copy of Cerebus v. that of Hulk 181 if we are going to fairly compare a Marvel mainstream book to an independently published comic that had a print run of 3000 and hit how many newstands when it first came out?  

Ask any dealer which comic they would take first? The existing highest graded copy of Hulk 181 or Cerebus 1 and then see what the answer is? Also ask 100 BA collectors the same question and see what their answer is?

Apples, meet oranges.

The existing highest graded copy of Hulk 181 is a 9.9. The dealer would take that every time, because it is sells for significantly more than the highest graded copy of Cerebus 1 - which is a 9.4. There are 5 9.4s. Total. There are 757 graded Hulk 181s 9.4 or higher.

Ask a dealer on the apples to apples comparison, which is a 9.4, and the dealer would take the Cerebus 1 every time because it sells for more money than the same graded Hulk 181.

The "ask 100 BA collectors the same question" is irrelevant to this conversation, as that has absolutely nothing to do with the value of Cerebus 1.  Here, ask them this way: "I know you love Hulk 181. Would you instead like a Cerebus 1 in 9.4? Why? Because you can sell it for $9,000 and then buy a 9.6 Hulk 181, and put $2,000 in your pocket." Ask that question and see what they will say. Take your personal preference out of this discussion.

Cerebus 1 in 9.4 (and most likely in 9.2) sells for more money than the same graded Hulk 181. A Cerebus 1 in 9.4 will sell for more than a Hulk 181 in 9.6.

[bronze johnny]

3 minutes ago, FlyingDonut said:

Apples, meet oranges.

The existing highest graded copy of Hulk 181 is a 9.9. The dealer would take that every time, because it is sells for significantly more than the highest graded copy of Cerebus 1 - which is a 9.4. There are 5 9.4s. Total. There are 757 graded Hulk 181s 9.4 or higher.

Ask a dealer on the apples to apples comparison, which is a 9.4, and the dealer would take the Cerebus 1 every time because it sells for more money than the same graded Hulk 181.

The "ask 100 BA collectors the same question" is irrelevant to this conversation, as that has absolutely nothing to do with the value of Cerebus 1.  Here, ask them this way: "I know you love Hulk 181. Would you instead like a Cerebus 1 in 9.4? Why? Because you can sell it for $9,000 and then buy a 9.6 Hulk 181, and put $2,000 in your pocket." Ask that question and see what they will say. Take your personal preference out of this discussion.

Cerebus 1 in 9.4 (and most likely in 9.2) sells for more money than the same graded Hulk 181. A Cerebus 1 in 9.4 will sell for more than a Hulk 181 in 9.6.

Now that's where we disagree -not apples and oranges. Again, you can make your contentions and draw your conclusions with the extremely limited sample of data that you have. Sorry we disagree

[FlyingDonut]

Just now, bronze johnny said:

Now that's where we disagree -not apples and oranges. Again, you can make your contentions and draw your conclusions with the extremely limited sample of data that you have. Sorry we disagree

What are we disagreeing on, exactly?

A Hulk 181 in 9.9 will sell for more than a Cerebus 1 in 9.4. Yes, the highest graded copy of Hulk 181 will sell for more than the highest graded copy of Cerebus 1.

But they aren't the same grade.

A 9.4 Cerebus 1 will sell for more than a Hulk 181 in 9.4, which is shown by the only empirical data available.

[Jaydogrules]

3 hours ago, FlyingDonut said:

Except for the little things called "facts" and "data". Applying the existing sales of Cerebus tells the ONLY story, and I am only talking about 9.2 or higher - as we have talked about throughout this entire thread.

Ask any dealer in America - if they were offered a graded 9.4 Cerebus 1 or a 9.4 Incredible Hulk 181 which one would they take. They would take the Cerebus every time. If they don't want the Cerebus 1 and would rather have the Hulk 181? They would take the Cerebus 1, sell it for 8-10K, buy a Hulk 181 in 9.6 - the most recent reported sale was for $6,900 in June 2017, and today is June 3, so that's pretty fresh data  - and keep the change.

Cerebus 1 in 9.4 is - without question and empirically proven by the data - a more valuable book than Hulk 181 in 9.4. Cerebus 1 in 9.2 is - most likely but cannot be empirically proven because there simply aren't enough sales - a more valuable book than Hulk 181 in 9.2. Take your personal opinions out of it and look at the data. The numbers simply do not lie.

This assumes too much.  

The fact of the matter is that a 9.4 cerebus came to market, top of the census copy, and didn't exactly set the world on fire. If anything there should have been some crazy upward pressure on something like that, if there was a real demand for it.  But the demand for the book is weak, even in its top grade, even after years and years between sales.  You can speak for yourself but no, I don't think very many dealers would go $9k balls deep on a cerebus 1 and then sit around and hope to sell it at some point in the distant future, maybe for a small profit, but probably at a loss just to get rid of it. I don't know many dealers that like to sit on inventory for long periods of time, which is exactly what would happen since cerebus 1 is the exact opposite of a liquid book.

Back to the apples and apples comparison- as I cited above, hulk 181 has surpassed cerebus 1 in a 9.0.  I can only speculate on what a cerebus 1 would someday sell for in a 9.2 but it would be lucky to crack 4k- something hulk 181 has done consistently in a 9.2.

So no, cerebus 1 is not more valuable than hulk 181.  This conversation is borderline laughable.  

-J.

[rjrjr]

It does appear Cerebus is still the more valuable of the two Bronze Age books in high grade.

But I don't think anything comes close to this:

http://www.comicbookdaily.com/collecting-community/overvalued-overstreet/overvalued-overstreet-star-wars-1-35-cent-price-variant/

I don't have recent data (the article is a year old), but this is from the article:

"Recently a CGC 9.4 sold for $26,290, which was up from the previous record of $23,000 which was up from $11,131 months earlier."

How much did this CGC 4.0 actually get?  Astonishing money for a 4.0:

http://www.ebay.com/itm/Star-Wars-1-35-Cent-Price-Variant-0-35-Marvel-1977-CGC-4-0-Old-Label-/201896297276?hash=item2f01f5033c:g:aOgAAOSwRUhY9isF

Edited June 3, 2017 by rjrjr

[bronze johnny]

34 minutes ago, rjrjr said:

It does appear Cerebus is still the more valuable of the two Bronze Age books in high grade.

But I don't think anything comes close to this:

http://www.comicbookdaily.com/collecting-community/overvalued-overstreet/overvalued-overstreet-star-wars-1-35-cent-price-variant/

I don't have recent data (the article is a year old), but this is from the article:

"Recently a CGC 9.4 sold for $26,290, which was up from the previous record of $23,000 which was up from $11,131 months earlier."

How much did this CGC 4.0 actually get?  Astonishing money for a 4.0:

http://www.ebay.com/itm/Star-Wars-1-35-Cent-Price-Variant-0-35-Marvel-1977-CGC-4-0-Old-Label-/201896297276?hash=item2f01f5033c:g:aOgAAOSwRUhY9isF

The existing evidence supporting Cerebus 1's value over Hulk 181's is insufficient. Just not a large enough sample to go on. 

Do you think it's fair to compare a 35 cent variant of Star Wars 1 to a mainstream book like Hulk 181? There are many, many more collectors who do not collect variants than those who do (no offense to variant collectors- I respect those who do). That being said, Star Wars 1 35 cent variant is the most valuable BA variant book- and that is a great distinction nevertheless.

[Jaydogrules]

13 minutes ago, bronze johnny said:

The existing evidence supporting Cerebus 1's value over Hulk 181's is insufficient. Just not a large enough sample to go on. 

Do you think it's fair to compare a 35 cent variant of Star Wars 1 to a mainstream book like Hulk 181? There are many, many more collectors who do not collect variants than those who do (no offense to variant collectors- I respect those who do). That being said, Star Wars 1 35 cent variant is the most valuable BA variant book- and that is a great distinction nevertheless.

Agreed.  Variants need to have their own discussion.  Comparing the star wars 35 cents variant to a hulk 181 is like comparing the ASM 667 variant to Nyx 3 in the modern age and touting how much more valuable the 667 is.  They're just two different conversations.  

And yes, looking at one sale of one grade of cerebus 1 and proclaiming it more valuable than hulk 181 based on that is silly. 

-J.

Edited June 3, 2017 by Jaydogrules

[rjrjr]

9 hours ago, bronze johnny said:

The existing evidence supporting Cerebus 1's value over Hulk 181's is insufficient. Just not a large enough sample to go on. 

Do you think it's fair to compare a 35 cent variant of Star Wars 1 to a mainstream book like Hulk 181? There are many, many more collectors who do not collect variants than those who do (no offense to variant collectors- I respect those who do). That being said, Star Wars 1 35 cent variant is the most valuable BA variant book- and that is a great distinction nevertheless.

It's the most valuable BA book, you don't need to qualify it. 

[rjrjr]

9 hours ago, Jaydogrules said:

Agreed.  Variants need to have their own discussion.  Comparing the star wars 35 cents variant to a hulk 181 is like comparing the ASM 667 variant to Nyx 3 in the modern age and touting how much more valuable the 667 is.  They're just two different conversations.  

And yes, looking at one sale of one grade of cerebus 1 and proclaiming it more valuable than hulk 181 based on that is silly. 

-J.

But, if you are looking at the most valuable modern books, why wouldn't you look at all the books instead of selectively choosing which ones "count" and which don't?

Regardless, that is not the discussion of this thread.  I don't think anyone is going to change their mind on which is more valuable, IH #181 or Cerebus #1.  What does Overstreet show?  Still Cerebus #1?

[oakman29]

2 hours ago, rjrjr said:

But, if you are looking at the most valuable modern books, why wouldn't you look at all the books instead of selectively choosing which ones "count" and which don't?

Regardless, that is not the discussion of this thread.  I don't think anyone is going to change their mind on which is more valuable, IH #181 or Cerebus #1.  What does Overstreet show?  Still Cerebus #1?

I have a 9.2 and 9.4 graded IH 181, and I would give up both of them for a 9.4 Cerebus 1.

Just sayin'.

[bronze johnny]

4 hours ago, rjrjr said:

It's the most valuable BA book, you don't need to qualify it. 

You do. Those who collect price variants do not represent the average collector. 

[WolverineX]

9 hours ago, oakman29 said:

I have a 9.2 and 9.4 graded IH 181, and I would give up both of them for a 9.4 Cerebus 1.

Just sayin'.

lol, I don't know if another one even exists... so you are probably keeping the 181's. 

[rjrjr]

19 hours ago, bronze johnny said:

You do. Those who collect price variants do not represent the average collector. 

Those who collect CGC slabs don't represent the average collector either. 

Regardless, I'll drop it.