WBN 32 - Reason for Increase in Demand/Prices?

[piper]

I'm still convinced that this book will increase in value, but it's not why I bought a copy. I've been slowly adding some BA keys to my collection and always liked the character. I just picked up the Warren Ellis 6 issue mini and can't wait to read it!

 

For me, with the amount of money we spend on these, I'm not sure it's possible to eliminate the investment aspect entirely from the equation.

 

 

 

 

[whisp]

Yeah I don't get it. Everything I have seen in which I watch this book continually along with the character itself has been the opposite for the most part.

 

Maybe he doesn't like Moon Knight.

 

 

I think a book going from $140 which was roughly gpa when I bought it too $566 in the latest ebay sale must show a book that is rising not dropping. That's a 300% increase.

 

That is one sale. Since when does one sale define the market on a comic as common as WBN 32? This isn't Action Comics #1. Just in 9.8 alone there are 10 copies.

 

First compare it to SA keys, then just bash the book. Next you'll want us to believe that you have never made a mistake or bought a book that has gone down. What's with the self imposed importance with you and your angle on a .... EVERYTHING

Right! I wish some should just stop looking at books as a commodity,and just enjoy them for what they are.Kind of sad really,sorta feel sorry for people like him.

 

I feel the same exact way. Keep in mind Oakman that I am responding to two speculators on this forum. Both are members of the Lyria Exchange with one being the primary proprietor. I'll leave it at that; as what was that about viewing books as a commodity?

 

Junkdrawer you are missing the point I am trying to make. When talking about investing 'opportunity costs' come into play. Yes, WBN 32 should be compared to any other book. The funds used to purchase this book can easily be diverted to other things that may have a much better return; even outside of the subject of comic books. Why wouldn't I bring up silver age books? Successful investing is generally void of emotion.

 

 

 

 

Are you serious. Yeah I took the last sale to show the difference between how much it has gone up. But if you search back the sales of 9.0 it has been going up over the months/years. I personally don't have gpa but when I have used my friends and asked every once in awhile whats going on with my book it has gone up and up and up and it isn't based off one sale. Gpa tracks multiple site sales to gather the info which is showing it trending up. Maybe the high grade ones are not moving up or do anything but the grades under are. I also look at it this way as well and that most people don't have the money to be spending the type of cash some of the people on the boards do. Every time I have heard someone wanting this book they say to me they want it in a lower grade that is a bit more affordable. Its why I bought 9.0 because it was affordable to me as a collector and a 9.4 and up was just way to much for me. If you think all collectors have $1000s and $1000s of dollars to throw on books that is an elitist attitude because in what I see people want to finish their collections where it is affordable which means for this book mid level from most I have heard of when asked for it.

 

For example since ebay only tracks so far back in closed listings:

 

Jul 14 one sold for $431.00 which was a cgc 9.0

 

then

 

sept 21 one sold for $566 which was a cgc 9.0

 

Then as I have mentioned I have checked in occasionally on gpa and this book since I have bought it has jumped up a bit then a bit more then a bit more until the price we have now.

 

You know why I know this. Because it is the most expensive book I have in my collection and I only collect GI Joe and Moon Knight for the most part with some odd other books here and there. So I keep a close look on that book and my 30 cent variants.

 

 

[mintcollector]

Yeah I don't get it. Everything I have seen in which I watch this book continually along with the character itself has been the opposite for the most part.

 

Maybe he doesn't like Moon Knight.

 

 

I think a book going from $140 which was roughly gpa when I bought it too $566 in the latest ebay sale must show a book that is rising not dropping. That's a 300% increase.

 

That is one sale. Since when does one sale define the market on a comic as common as WBN 32? This isn't Action Comics #1. Just in 9.8 alone there are 10 copies.

 

First compare it to SA keys, then just bash the book. Next you'll want us to believe that you have never made a mistake or bought a book that has gone down. What's with the self imposed importance with you and your angle on a .... EVERYTHING

Right! I wish some should just stop looking at books as a commodity,and just enjoy them for what they are.Kind of sad really,sorta feel sorry for people like him.

 

I feel the same exact way. Keep in mind Oakman that I am responding to two speculators on this forum. Both are members of the Lyria Exchange with one being the primary proprietor. I'll leave it at that; as what was that about viewing books as a commodity?

 

Junkdrawer you are missing the point I am trying to make. When talking about investing 'opportunity costs' come into play. Yes, WBN 32 should be compared to any other book. The funds used to purchase this book can easily be diverted to other things that may have a much better return; even outside of the subject of comic books. Why wouldn't I bring up silver age books? Successful investing is generally void of emotion.

 

 

 

 

Are you serious. Yeah I took the last sale to show the difference between how much it has gone up. But if you search back the sales of 9.0 it has been going up over the months/years. I personally don't have gpa but when I have used my friends and asked every once in awhile whats going on with my book it has gone up and up and up and it isn't based off one sale. Gpa tracks multiple site sales to gather the info which is showing it trending up. Maybe the high grade ones are not moving up or do anything but the grades under are. I also look at it this way as well and that most people don't have the money to be spending the type of cash some of the people on the boards do. Every time I have heard someone wanting this book they say to me they want it in a lower grade that is a bit more affordable. Its why I bought 9.0 because it was affordable to me as a collector and a 9.4 and up was just way to much for me. If you think all collectors have $1000s and $1000s of dollars to throw on books that is an elitist attitude because in what I see people want to finish their collections where it is affordable which means for this book mid level from most I have heard of when asked for it.

 

For example since ebay only tracks so far back in closed listings:

 

Jul 14 one sold for $431.00 which was a cgc 9.0

 

then

 

sept 21 one sold for $566 which was a cgc 9.0

 

Then as I have mentioned I have checked in occasionally on gpa and this book since I have bought it has jumped up a bit then a bit more then a bit more until the price we have now.

 

You know why I know this. Because it is the most expensive book I have in my collection and I only collect GI Joe and Moon Knight for the most part with some odd other books here and there. So I keep a close look on that book and my 30 cent variants.

 

 

You need to also consider several important factors:

 

#1: You are correct in that a lot of collectors do not have thousands of dollars to spend on a single book. I fully admit that I am an anomaly and have been blessed in that regard. Outside of my health issues I do understand that not everyone can afford to cross collect across multiple collecting fields focusing on near mint specimens or better. Please do not think that I am not grateful in that regard; as you don't know me. However, I do not agree that I am an 'elitist' as there are far more wealthy collectors than myself (note: I don't even consider myself wealthy). There is however a flip side that is worth exploring in regards to your comment. There is a common theme that a lot of speculators seem to believe that just because someone is a fan of comic book based movies it means that are readily buying and collecting comic books. Understand that the average person (and even the average collector) will NOT pay hundreds let alone thousands of dollars for a single comic book. I have made this same exact argument on these forums and certain individuals turned a blind eye, some even arguing to the contrary. Just because a father and son go to the movies to watch the latest X-Men flick does not mean that these same individuals are eagerly buying a Giant Size X-Men #1.

 

#2: Here are the current census numbers for Werewolf by Night #32 as of today: 763 copies have been graded in Universal Grade and the average grade assigned to this book is a 8.19 (source: CGC Census Data - CGCdata.com):

 

Here is the breakdown:

 

10 copies in 9.8

45 copies in 9.6

92 copies in 9.4

91 copies in 9.2

102 copies in 9.0

 

I stopped at 9.0 for a reason. You stated you bought a 9.0. Now here is the issue you may have with this book from solely from an 'investment' standpoint. Out of 763 copies in Universal Grade there are 102 copies equal to your book in grade and 238 copies graded higher as of today. Who knows how many have yet to be graded, but we can say that about any book. That means that close to half of the books out there CGC graded are at a 9.0 or better grade. 9.0 is NOT the optimum grade for this book just like a 9.8 isn't either. For a book like this you should have focused on a 9.4 leaving only 55 copies graded higher with 92 tied in grade. While someone may attempt to make a case that a 9.6 is the optimum grade I personally don't think the price spread in going from a 9.4 to the cost of 9.6 is worth it. In order to speculate (or invest) in comic books you have to look at the numbers and take into consideration the average price points at each grade.

 

By your own admission you stated you don't have a subscription to GPA. I ask this as serious as possible, but how can you afford to go without GPA when you are trying to speculate on comic books? Had you have looked at the numbers from an analytical standpoint you would have came to the conclusion that a 9.0 is not a valid grade to attempt to speculate on this book. If you just want to own the book for collecting purposes I am sure the 9.0 you own is a beautiful book, but that is not the argument you are defending.

 

In conclusion I readily agree that if a movie were to be made on Moon Knight (Marc Spector) this book would go up in value across the board. If that is what you were hoping for then in time you may have done fairly well. I would also caution you to look at all price points. One thing I see lacking especially in the 'bronze age' section of these forums is the discussion about how much some of these high grade copies sold for before the price correction that occurred several years back. Not all comic books continue to go up in value and not all will continue to deliver the kind of performance we are used to seeing today. A correction will eventually come and this has been discussed ad nauseam in other threads.

[whisp]

Would not that many books being graded show that there is a demand and that it is rising in popularity too some degree?

 

As for gpa as I mentioned I focus Moon Knight and GI Joe so gpa isn't feasible for me. Also I am not a speculator. I time to time buy a book hoping it may go up but I would say 99% of what I have bought has gone down in price so I am not in this for investment. As I mentioned also earlier this book is staying with me and my holy grail of my collection and wasn't bought to flip. I bought it to collect it.

 

Also, are we not at the age of bronze/copper based off the 30 year rule and that demand for this era of books are increasing thus would this not effect this era of books by increasing their value?

[sl4ppy]

The 30 rule is anecdotal at best. Using it as an investment principle would be a poor decision.

[whisp]

I see many markets trending based on that 30 rule.

 

And being this is a key book I think it does apply.

[sl4ppy]

I see many markets trending based on that 30 rule.

 

And being this is a key book I think it does apply.

 

If it were a "rule", *all* books 30 years old would be going up in value. That is not the case and therefore it is not a rule.

[mintcollector]

Would not that many books being graded show that there is a demand and that it is rising in popularity too some degree?

 

As for gpa as I mentioned I focus Moon Knight and GI Joe so gpa isn't feasible for me. Also I am not a speculator. I time to time buy a book hoping it may go up but I would say 99% of what I have bought has gone down in price so I am not in this for investment. As I mentioned also earlier this book is staying with me and my holy grail of my collection and wasn't bought to flip. I bought it to collect it.

 

Also, are we not at the age of bronze/copper based off the 30 year rule and that demand for this era of books are increasing thus would this not effect this era of books by increasing their value?

 

Harry Rinker created the thirty year rule, but that actually isn't going to help you in this regard. The thirty rule year simply states that for the first thirty years of an object's life all its value is speculative. This rule was created to help speculators understand that a true market value has yet to be established for items made less than thirty years ago (i.e. factory sealed Lego sets, Beanie Babies, etc.). Unfortunately this should NOT imply that just because an item is more than thirty years old it is no longer speculative. By that logic any item over thirty years old wouldn't be volatile and we all know that this just isn't the case.

 

Back in the early 2000's a glut of supply on internet auction sites caused the value of pre-1970 PEZ dispensers to fall dramatically. In 2004-2005 the pre-NES video game market underwent a correction and to this day it hasn't recovered for anything aside from the truly rare and hard to find items. I fondly remember getting $5 each for the most common Atari 2600 games. Today these same games won't sell for even a dollar. They literally have to be sold by box lots for a lot less. Emulation, smart phones, and the fact that these items are much more common than originally thought, killed the market.

 

Right now Lego sets are in a period of speculation. Yesterday I had the pleasure of going to the RetroCon convention in Oaks (near Philly), PA. One lament I couldn't help but overhear is that older Lego sets are no longer always selling at increased prices. Collectors are just waiting for the next version to be produced by Lego instead of buying the previous version at a premium. This is starting to have ripple effects in the Lego market and as such a lot of dealers and speculators are starting to sour on the product. What happens next is anyone's guess.

 

Another flawed rule is the so called 'rule of 25.' Unfortunately no credible expert in the trade will give credence to that flawed logic. Adopters of this rule seem to forget that the antiques and collectibles market no longer runs in predictable cycles. Vintage Star Wars collectibles have remained hot and continued to gain traction while other properties coming right up on the 25 year mark have failed to gain any kind of ground at all. Speculators continue to point to the most popular properties, but unfortunately most fail to do any research. I have yet to see any record sales for Muppet Babies and Captain Power toys. Also the first original Beanie Babies turn 25 very soon. Does anyone really see these selling for any kind of premium over what they already sold for in the past? Sorry, but your royal Blue Peanut the Elephant will never be worth over $2,000 again. That ship has sailed long ago and it isn't coming back.

 

 

[whisp]

I see many markets trending based on that 30 rule.

 

And being this is a key book I think it does apply.

 

If it were a "rule", *all* books 30 years old would be going up in value. That is not the case and therefore it is not a rule.

 

 

Never said the rule applies to all items and no the rule of 30 doesn't affect all items and there is other factors you have to take into consideration. In this case it does.

[mintcollector]

I see many markets trending based on that 30 rule.

 

And being this is a key book I think it does apply.

 

If it were a "rule", *all* books 30 years old would be going up in value. That is not the case and therefore it is not a rule.

 

 

Never said the rule applies to all items and no the rule of 30 doesn't affect all items and there is other factors you have to take into consideration. In this case it does.

 

The terminology used is 'rule.' By definition a 'rule' is considered to be an 'absolute.' If it only works for some items but not all it would not be considered a rule.

[whisp]

I look at the rule of 30 as this. That stuff you played with when you where roughly 10 you try and get back when you are older and stable to afford to buy them. Age can vary but for most I see around 40. That why I said in a previous post it just an estimated number. I see it day in and day out by what people are asking for. Now for example you mentions Star Wars. From what I have heard and seen especially when I had kijiji ad up for all the Star Wars for trade that it has gone soft at this time. In fact people a bit older then me bought Star Wars but they have gotten what they wanted and even an other dealer I know has said it has gone soft. What we have seen though is that GI Joe for the toy line is what is selling right now for him and that I get a lot of people contacting asking to buy my gi joe that I have for trade because they are starting up and had it when they where a kid. I don't see that happening with star wars any more and this is not to say that it isn't sellable just that it has gone soft at this time. I am going by what I see in the market dealing with the stuff. Right now I'm holding onto a bunch just for trade but even then I am not getting any replies for the Star Wars. GI Joe however has been doing well.

 

You look at the market on how well GI Joe did on the anniversary sets that they released at the 25 and 30 mark since a lot of people bought it for the nostalgia and many found it a cheap way to get that vehicle or figure back without the higher prices which goes back to my point earlier about how collectors want it but don't want to spend a lot of money.

 

Transformers is an other that I get asked for by people of my age as well for the vintage toys.

 

Those are both within 30 years. Moon Knight while had a few books in bronze wasn't introduced to me until copper age in fact with the 80's series when he got his own book. So in this case a character that again falls in the 30's range.

 

Anyways while you may see the rule an other way this is how I see it and how it ties into the market to me.

[whisp]

I see many markets trending based on that 30 rule.

 

And being this is a key book I think it does apply.

 

If it were a "rule", *all* books 30 years old would be going up in value. That is not the case and therefore it is not a rule.

 

 

Never said the rule applies to all items and no the rule of 30 doesn't affect all items and there is other factors you have to take into consideration. In this case it does.

 

The terminology used is 'rule.' By definition a 'rule' is considered to be an 'absolute.' If it only works for some items but not all it would not be considered a rule.

 

There are rules that have conditions depending on the situation.

[mintcollector]

I see many markets trending based on that 30 rule.

 

And being this is a key book I think it does apply.

 

If it were a "rule", *all* books 30 years old would be going up in value. That is not the case and therefore it is not a rule.

 

 

Never said the rule applies to all items and no the rule of 30 doesn't affect all items and there is other factors you have to take into consideration. In this case it does.

 

The terminology used is 'rule.' By definition a 'rule' is considered to be an 'absolute.' If it only works for some items but not all it would not be considered a rule.

 

There are rules that have conditions depending on the situation.

 

You are really trying to 'force' this aren't you? I wish you all the best of luck.

 

[whisp]

Nope. I think we just both have our own opinion. Doesn't mean that either of us are wrong its just how we see things based on how we deal with the market.

[mintcollector]

Nope. I think we just both have our own opinion. Doesn't mean that either of us are wrong its just how we see things based on how we deal with the market.

 

Whisp this is going to go on forever if I let it, and I still don't think you understand. I mean this in the nicest possible way, as I have really tried to help you. In any kind of logic based reasoning, mathematics, or analytical thought a rule is defined as an absolute. I understand that in your mind you need to feel that there are exceptions to validate your points, but as someone else already attempted to explain to you when they stated the following:

 

 

 

"If it were a "rule", *all* books 30 years old would be going up in value. That is not the case and therefore it is not a rule." (sl4ppy)

 

Note how the term 'all' is stated in their response to you? In any kind of logic based reasoning and applied mathematics a rule is an absolute. There are *NO* exceptions.

 

Even Mr. Rinker who created the noted 30 year rule that I originally quoted has had to defend his analysis at times due to this fact.

 

 

 

[whisp]

Who says the rule I am going by has to be the same rule as his.

 

Like I said and explained a rule could apply to a circumstance. In this case It is because it is a key book. Popularity plays apart of it as well. There is many thing that apply to what I am talking about.

 

Anyways I am done discussing this in which case you didn't understand my last post where I stated " I think we just both have our own opinion. Doesn't mean that either of us are wrong its just how we see things based on how we deal with the market. "

 

Believe what you want.

[Dr. Balls]

I feel sorry for Rinker - a guy who came up with a extremely valid observation, only to completely muff it because of his misunderstanding of the words defining it.

 

Count me into the 30 Year concept - when I was 11 years old, I was HUGELY into Moon Knight, and so were my friends of the same age. I'm not sure how popular MK was in 1984, but he was one of my favorite characters at the time because of his dark stories and vigilantism (I also liked DD, Wolverine, MOKF and Punisher - which were all hot characters in my world back then).

 

I think WWBN 32 has the fact that yes - I'm 41 and can afford a decent copy, along with the fact that it's got hugely action-packed cover. If you look at the composition of the cover itself, it's quite pleasing because our first appearance character: a) has a nice contrast to WW, b) they really hit a nice color with that purple/blue background and c) one could argue that the mass and proportions of the character to the space on the page falls within the Golden Ratio, which makes it subconsciously pleasing to people who are unaware of it.

 

That's my two cents.

[whisp]

I feel sorry for Rinker - a guy who came up with a extremely valid observation, only to completely muff it because of his misunderstanding of the words defining it.

 

Count me into the 30 Year concept - when I was 11 years old, I was HUGELY into Moon Knight, and so were my friends of the same age. I'm not sure how popular MK was in 1984, but he was one of my favorite characters at the time because of his dark stories and vigilantism (I also liked DD, Wolverine, MOKF and Punisher - which were all hot characters in my world back then).

 

I think WWBN 32 has the fact that yes - I'm 41 and can afford a decent copy, along with the fact that it's got hugely action-packed cover. If you look at the composition of the cover itself, it's quite pleasing because our first appearance character: a) has a nice contrast to WW, b) they really hit a nice color with that purple/blue background and c) one could argue that the mass and proportions of the character to the space on the page falls within the Golden Ratio, which makes it subconsciously pleasing to people who are unaware of it.

 

That's my two cents.

 

I am 41 as well.

 

I like how there is speech bubbles on the cover.

[The-Collector]

I feel sorry for Rinker - a guy who came up with a extremely valid observation, only to completely muff it because of his misunderstanding of the words defining it.

 

Count me into the 30 Year concept - when I was 11 years old, I was HUGELY into Moon Knight, and so were my friends of the same age. I'm not sure how popular MK was in 1984, but he was one of my favorite characters at the time because of his dark stories and vigilantism (I also liked DD, Wolverine, MOKF and Punisher - which were all hot characters in my world back then).

 

I think WWBN 32 has the fact that yes - I'm 41 and can afford a decent copy, along with the fact that it's got hugely action-packed cover. If you look at the composition of the cover itself, it's quite pleasing because our first appearance character: a) has a nice contrast to WW, b) they really hit a nice color with that purple/blue background and c) one could argue that the mass and proportions of the character to the space on the page falls within the Golden Ratio, which makes it subconsciously pleasing to people who are unaware of it.

 

That's my two cents.

 

Not commenting on the rule of 30. But I agree with your analysis of the cover it is a great one.

[Jeffro.]

Okay, so it's not a "rule". It's not absolute. We've established that. Let's move on.