THOR: RAGNAROK official thread (7/28/2017) 5 5

[revat]

16 hours ago, piper said:

 

18 hours ago, revat said:

Just fly to Indonesia like normal people.

 

 

1 hour ago, comic_memories said:

He's flying to Indonesia to watch the movie early too.  Actually he might have, its probably the closest to Australia (Malaysia might be equal or closer depending where in you're coming to/from)

[Bosco685]

 

[Bosco685]

A very thorough and realistic review (other than the first Thor being one of the weakest).

 

[comic_memories]

Looks like this is going to easily break a billion dollars. I'm going to watch this on thursday night. Excited!!

 

 .

[Straw-Man]

doubt it'll see a bil, but should hit 750m.

[paperheart]

12 minutes ago, Straw-Man said:

doubt it'll see a bil, but should hit 750m.

Est. $300MM US, $500MM Int'l - raised due to overwhelmingly positive reviews

[jsilverjanet]

I think the days of a billion dollar movie may have passed. Maybe the next avengers movie but I have some doubts

[paperheart]

20 minutes ago, jsilverjanet said:

I think the days of a billion dollar movie may have passed. Maybe the next avengers movie but I have some doubts

add 'superhero' or 'non-Star Wars' in there somewhere as Last Jedi is going to blow by $1BB in a heartbeat

[jsilverjanet]

22 minutes ago, paperheart said:

add 'superhero' or 'non-Star Wars' in there somewhere as Last Jedi is going to blow by $1BB in a heartbeat

agreed, I meant in the "super-hero" genre

maybe if RDJ as Iron Man met Gal Gadot's Wonder Woman in a rom-com action pack movie we could hit a billion

[bababooey]

13 minutes ago, jsilverjanet said:

maybe if RDJ as Iron Man met Gal Gadot's Wonder Woman in a rom-com action pack movie we could hit a billion

That would be weird since RDJ wouldn't do that film unless it was based on him banging Queen Hippolyta to create Wonder Woman in the first place. 

[Bosco685]

3 hours ago, Straw-Man said:

doubt it'll see a bil, but should hit 750m.

Billion dollars or it didn't happen!

 

But I do agree with folks that stated this already. Assuming everything has to be one billion dollars to be a success is setting an unrealistic goal.

Look at Spider-Man: Homecoming struggling to get past $880M.

[drotto]

14 minutes ago, Bosco685 said:

Billion dollars or it didn't happen!

 

But I do agree with folks that stated this already. Assuming everything has to be one billion dollars to be a success is setting an unrealistic goal.

Look at Spider-Man: Homecoming struggling to get past $880M.

The next argument concerns is there enough room for Thor, Justice League and Star Wars too really establish any legs when they ar e being released in a 6 week period.  We are not going to get 3 billion dollar movies in rapid succession  like that.  SW is almost guaranteed to hit 1.5 billion or so.  I personally think Thor and JL are going to be very close to one another in the 850 million range. 

 

Thor looks to overperform based on historical box office and JL just feels like it is going to do roughly the same as the last 3 DC movies.

[revat]

11 minutes ago, drotto said:

The next argument concerns is there enough room for Thor, Justice League and Star Wars too really establish any legs when they ar e being released in a 6 week period.  We are not going to get 3 billion dollar movies in rapid succession  like that.  SW is almost guaranteed to hit 1.5 billion or so.  I personally think Thor and JL are going to be very close to one another in the 850 million range. 

 

Thor looks to overperform based on historical box office and JL just feels like it is going to do roughly the same as the last 3 DC movies.

this all seems about right to me.  Although I'm not soooo sure if SW goes 1.5B, that's a lot of scratch for a franchise that China 'likes' but doesn't 'love'  (they LOVE the Marvel (but just Iron Man and Cap), Xmen, Fast and Furious, Transformers (but they beat the horse to death, then beat it some more)

 

My prediction is that Thor will beat  JL by a healthy margin (10%) worldwide or more in the end, benefitting from good hype and coming out first (though I get that lots will see JL over thanksgiving).  Would that be an upset?

 

Other prediction is that Black Panther will do crazy domestic numbers and bad international numbers (they'll tap into the African market more but lose a lot of the Asian market).

[Bosco685]

1 hour ago, drotto said:

The next argument concerns is there enough room for Thor, Justice League and Star Wars too really establish any legs when they ar e being released in a 6 week period.  We are not going to get 3 billion dollar movies in rapid succession  like that.  SW is almost guaranteed to hit 1.5 billion or so.  I personally think Thor and JL are going to be very close to one another in the 850 million range. 

 

Thor looks to overperform based on historical box office and JL just feels like it is going to do roughly the same as the last 3 DC movies.

Thor 3 has so much going for it including extremely strong support from critics, I can see it over-performing. Though now Marvel can call anything outperforming expectations, as it never announced an overall prediction. But between the winning comedy for the most part, solid actors in great roles and a story that comes together, I can't see it not over-performing.

I agree on Star Wars. It's like printing Disney Bucks the reaction is so strong and lasting with fans of the franchise.

 

Justice League can go either way. If early on the critics take to it, there is a strong chance for big numbers and strong audience response (looking forward to that Cinemascore). But I also worry the studio is not pushing Whedon more versus Zack Snyder has started coming out more. And I am fine with Zack Snyder. It is just clear there are critics that hate his approach to movies - no matter the content. He did something to offend a large portion of them.

1 hour ago, revat said:

this all seems about right to me.  Although I'm not soooo sure if SW goes 1.5B, that's a lot of scratch for a franchise that China 'likes' but doesn't 'love'  (they LOVE the Marvel (but just Iron Man and Cap), Xmen, Fast and Furious, Transformers (but they beat the horse to death, then beat it some more)

 

My prediction is that Thor will beat  JL by a healthy margin (10%) worldwide or more in the end, benefitting from good hype and coming out first (though I get that lots will see JL over thanksgiving).  Would that be an upset?

 

Other prediction is that Black Panther will do crazy domestic numbers and bad international numbers (they'll tap into the African market more but lose a lot of the Asian market).

I've been wondering about Black Panther. It looks like a fantastic movie from the trailers. But there will be those countries that just do not favor certain content (e.g. female-led films; minority-based productions). But I guess that was the risk the studio takes when moving forward with such movies.

Edited November 1, 2017 by Bosco685

[Bosco685]

THOR: RAGNAROK Outpacing SPIDER-MAN: HOMECOMING's Ticket Sales; Cool New Poster Released

Quote

According to Variety, Thor: Ragnarok is currently outselling Spider-Man: Homecoming in terms of ticket sales on Fandango. While that's just the one seller, it points to big things being on the way for the three-quel and the franchise's fortunes are clearly turning around after the first two installments.

Those performed admirably at the box office but Thor: Ragnarok is shaping up to be a huge hit and could beat Spider-Man: Homecoming's $117 million debut this weekend. Fandango also surveyed more than 1,000 moviegoers and found that 89% of them are looking forward to the movie's lighter tone.

[paperheart]

2 hours ago, revat said:

this all seems about right to me.  Although I'm not soooo sure if SW goes 1.5B, that's a lot of scratch for a franchise that China 'likes' but doesn't 'love'  (they LOVE the Marvel (but just Iron Man and Cap), Xmen, Fast and Furious, Transformers (but they beat the horse to death, then beat it some more)

 

My prediction is that Thor will beat  JL by a healthy margin (10%) worldwide or more in the end, benefitting from good hype and coming out first (though I get that lots will see JL over thanksgiving).  Would that be an upset?

 

Other prediction is that Black Panther will do crazy domestic numbers and bad international numbers (they'll tap into the African market more but lose a lot of the Asian market).

Buster Douglas vs Mike Tyson caliber.  Two weeks ago, Thor "stock" was trading at $220, implying $260MM - $275MM US BO; JLA "stock" was trading at $320MM, implying $375MM - $400MM US.  Even today after Thor's overwhelmingly positive reviews, JLA's review embargo news & limp initial tracking (despite shiny posters), Thor is trading at $240, implying $280MM - $300MM US and JLA is trading at $300, implying $350MM-$375MM US.  Extrapolate reasonable percentage of overseas and JLA should top Thor by $100MM+ WW.

[drotto]

1 hour ago, Bosco685 said:

Thor 3 has so much going for it including extremely strong support from critics, I can see it over-performing. Though now Marvel can call anything outperforming expectations, as it never announced an overall prediction. But between the winning comedy for the most part, solid actors in great roles and a story that comes together, I can't see it not over-performing.

 

I think that is one of the things that Marvel has been historically very smart about.  They publically paint very reasonable expectations for their movies.  They seem happy and expect box office in the 500 mil range on most of their solo movies. They never go on record pointing at high expections and then have to walk it back.  Thus the movies always look successful.  If a movie explodes like GOTG  did they come off looking like geniuses. They also play the critic and review release game like masters.  That is why when they get marginal reviews they movies are not hurt that bad. When they get good reviews they really turn it to their advantage.

 

DC at times seems to get too aggressive and caught up in the hype.  This was damaging to BvS which they were acting like it would have Avenger numbers.  It did well opening weekend and WB flaunted the numbers, then it fell off a cliff second weekend, and they ended up looking bad. WB has also done a poor job in managing reviews and controlling bad press. The reports of infighting over BvS hurt the film, and they may have given up money on WW by not lifting the embargo sooner.

[Bosco685]

1 minute ago, drotto said:

I think that is one of the things that Marvel has been historically very smart about.  They publically paint very reasonable expectations for their movies.  They seem happy and expect box office in the 500 mil range on most of their solo movies. They never go on record pointing at high expections and then have to walk it back.  Thus the movies always look successful.  If a movie explodes like GOTG  did they come off looking like geniuses. They also play the critic and review release game like masters.  That is why when they get marginal reviews they movies are not hurt that bad. When they get good reviews they really turn it to their advantage.

 

DC at times seems to get too aggressive and caught up in the hype.  This was damaging to BvS which they were acting like it would have Avenger numbers.  It did well opening weekend and WB flaunted the numbers, then it fell off a cliff second weekend, and they ended up looking bad. WB has also done a poor job in managing reviews and controlling bad press. The reports of infighting over BvS hurt the film, and they may have given up money on WW by not lifting the embargo sooner.

I agree with most of what you said with Marvel.

Please show me where WB/DC stated BvS was going to achieve Avengers numbers.

And again, I agree with the rest about the in-fighting making its way to the public. Though with all the reporting sites now, they try all the angles to get details - to include create them when needed.

[drotto]

7 minutes ago, Bosco685 said:

I agree with most of what you said with Marvel.

Please show me where WB/DC stated BvS was going to achieve Avengers numbers.

And again, I agree with the rest about the in-fighting making its way to the public. Though with all the reporting sites now, they try all the angles to get details - to include create them when needed.

WB may never have said it directly, but fan sites and members of the press were predicting that this was DC's Avengers.   You can dig back on the threads here and find endless posts about people predicting that BvS would at worse be a billion dollar film. That level of hype was not just fabricated by people that read the CGC forums.  WB attempted to ride that wave and did nothing to temper expectations. Then when things went south, they responded very poorly.

Edited November 1, 2017 by drotto

[Bosco685]

1 minute ago, drotto said:

WB may never have said it, but fan sites and members of the press were predicting that this was DC's Avengers.   You can dig back on the threads here a finds endless posts about people predicting that BvS would at worse be a billion dollar film. That level of hype was not just fabricated by people that read the CGC forums.  WB attempted to ride that wave and did nothing to temper expectations. Then when things went south, they responded very poorly.

Analyst sites and reporting sites are not WB/DC. And what would you want WB/DC to do? Come out and tell these folks, "Calm down. This is going to do much less than you all are hyping this up to be!" How would that go over in the market?

It's like when the fake Wonder Woman internal details came out. WB/DC kept it quiet so as not to add to the confusion of the situation. Even Patty Jenkins only took it so far, and then let it die down. Otherwise, you are feeding the beast.

You agree?