State of the Market Going into 2015

[DocR]

So with all the major auction houses done for the year, How does everyone feel the market went in 2014 and where is it going in 2015 for OA?

 

It always feel like the stuff I'm going after at auction climbs ever higher and higher but that could be just a skewed opinion.

 

Some observations:

1. The Trimpe market skyrocketed

2. Marvel movie mania will continue to stretch prices of certain franchises and characters especially for key runs, artists, first appearances.

3. Vintage DC superhero art has closed the gap slightly with marvel as compared to previously

4. EC Sci-fi remains red hot

5. Prime examples of Wally Wood has become near untouchable

6. Less prominent artists from major titles could be bought at deep discounts. This has always been the case but I feel even some great images have slipped through the cracks at auction.

7. the auction houses always win. A lot of repeat sales of pieces from ebay to clink and HA and then repeated again.

 

thoughts everyone, paging Gene

 

 

 

[suspense39]

There are always pieces that slip through the cracks, but overall the market appears to be climbing steadily upwards. It would be great to know how many new collectors there are and at what rate they are joining in.

[Weird Paper]

I know some consigners took hits on this auction, so the market isn't just blindly pushing upward. Didn't that Adams' GL page sell for a lot more a few years back? The general rule is that if I like it and bid on it, it will sell really high. If I like it and don't bid on it, it will sell for a bargain. If I don't like it... well, hell, I'm not even paying attention, then.

[suspense39]

I know some consigners took hits on this auction, so the market isn't just blindly pushing upward. Didn't that Adams' GL page sell for a lot more a few years back? The general rule is that if I like it and bid on it, it will sell really high. If I like it and don't bid on it, it will sell for a bargain. If I don't like it... well, hell, I'm not even paying attention, then.

 

That probably has to do with a small collector base, I know there are items that I would pay a lot more for, but no one else bids against me, I'm sure there are other people that have had the same experience.

[DocR]

I know some consigners took hits on this auction, so the market isn't just blindly pushing upward. Didn't that Adams' GL page sell for a lot more a few years back? The general rule is that if I like it and bid on it, it will sell really high. If I like it and don't bid on it, it will sell for a bargain. If I don't like it... well, hell, I'm not even paying attention, then.

 

That probably has to do with a small collector base, I know there are items that I would pay a lot more for, but no one else bids against me, I'm sure there are other people that have had the same experience.

 

 

I think thats why for example a person who normally will play in the 3k sandbox goes and makes a play for a piece double that they think should hammer around 5 or 6 and it ends up selling for 9k. They are shocked and surprised of how high it went. Next time if that person doesn't bid it could resell for far less to the current second bidder. You can't base the auction market necessarily on previous sales in thinly collected pieces. Its the absence or presence consistently of the third bidder that really effects the market the second go around when a piece sells. It could be a 2k gap between third and second bidders so when you resell unless there is new blood bidding you take a huge hit (potentially).

[zhamlau]

I'm always amazed there isn't more discussion around the two very distinct era's of comic art, because you can clearly see a difference in the price structure and value increase in both.

 

A. Vintage ERA art that is Penciled, Inked, and Lettered by hand on the same page

 

B. Modern era art that can be penciled, inked, and digitally lettered separately.

 

 

I've seen this year Modern work seems to be crawling along in value, and in many cases seems to be taking a hit. You can really see the value change over by looking at artists who straddle the two eras/markets. Look at Quesada. Some great covers and Splash pages have been going off for 1000+ but they are modern pieces. Expertly done, beautiful and well designed and executed...but being in from this digital split era there just aren't enough fans who trust/desire the work enough to lay down the cash. But Ive now seen pretty garbagey interior pages like from the Ray go off around 150-300 and more. same artists, lesser characters to work with, technically lesser caliber art...selling for many times what the equivalent in modern would sell for.

 

Anyway its not like this is a new thought in collecting, we I am sure have all noticed it. But this year the difference has been more striking. As we see people in their 30's and late 20's come more into the market, you can see the prices on 80s and early 90s art really start climbing in ways I dont think modern tiered work ever will. I really think 80's marvel in general will start catching up to Bronze age and silver age art, and soon. Not just the Jim Lee's and Mcfarlanes. But Guys like Pollard and Leonardi are now getting high 3 to 4 figures for good interiors. Its going to be fun to see where this art is selling in 2016, if the trend continues the way it has in true bronze age art.

[batman_fan]

My perception based on the stuff I track is the SA Marvel market is still red hot. All of the nice splashes went for way over what I thought they would. GA artwork from second tier characters is almost free but top tier stuff sells for close to SA Marvel. I really only buy Batman artwork from the various animated based titles for newer material but the nicer stuff like splashes which you use to buy sub $200 are now going for $400-$600. Covers seem to be a bit stagnant in there pricing but nicer examples still move quickly.

 

As a side note, I picked up a long sought cover recently. I ended up paying close to 3x what other examples of the artist work have sold for. This isn't a statement of getting gouged by the seller but more if there is something specific you really want, you have to be willing to pay, likely well over market. Make sure you love the piece and can financially afford to hold it for the long term.

[suspense39]

I know some consigners took hits on this auction, so the market isn't just blindly pushing upward. Didn't that Adams' GL page sell for a lot more a few years back? The general rule is that if I like it and bid on it, it will sell really high. If I like it and don't bid on it, it will sell for a bargain. If I don't like it... well, hell, I'm not even paying attention, then.

 

That probably has to do with a small collector base, I know there are items that I would pay a lot more for, but no one else bids against me, I'm sure there are other people that have had the same experience.

 

 

I think thats why for example a person who normally will play in the 3k sandbox goes and makes a play for a piece double that they think should hammer around 5 or 6 and it ends up selling for 9k. They are shocked and surprised of how high it went. Next time if that person doesn't bid it could resell for far less to the current second bidder. You can't base the auction market necessarily on previous sales in thinly collected pieces. Its the absence or presence consistently of the third bidder that really effects the market the second go around when a piece sells. It could be a 2k gap between third and second bidders so when you resell unless there is new blood bidding you take a huge hit (potentially).

 

I think this happens fair amount.

 

 

[DocR]

I'm always amazed there isn't more discussion around the two very distinct era's of comic art, because you can clearly see a difference in the price structure and value increase in both.

 

A. Vintage ERA art that is Penciled, Inked, and Lettered by hand on the same page

 

B. Modern era art that can be penciled, inked, and digitally lettered separately.

 

 

I've seen this year Modern work seems to be crawling along in value, and in many cases seems to be taking a hit. You can really see the value change over by looking at artists who straddle the two eras/markets. Look at Quesada. Some great covers and Splash pages have been going off for 1000+ but they are modern pieces. Expertly done, beautiful and well designed and executed...but being in from this digital split era there just aren't enough fans who trust/desire the work enough to lay down the cash. But Ive now seen pretty garbagey interior pages like from the Ray go off around 150-300 and more. same artists, lesser characters to work with, technically lesser caliber art...selling for many times what the equivalent in modern would sell for.

 

Anyway its not like this is a new thought in collecting, we I am sure have all noticed it. But this year the difference has been more striking. As we see people in their 30's and late 20's come more into the market, you can see the prices on 80s and early 90s art really start climbing in ways I dont think modern tiered work ever will. I really think 80's marvel in general will start catching up to Bronze age and silver age art, and soon. Not just the Jim Lee's and Mcfarlanes. But Guys like Pollard and Leonardi are now getting high 3 to 4 figures for good interiors. Its going to be fun to see where this art is selling in 2016, if the trend continues the way it has in true bronze age art.

 

Excellent point, I definitely agree that aside from a very select group of artists the modern market has been soft over the last several auctions. I only have one published piece that is separate pencils and inks and I have both pages. I almost always will pass on pages with separate inks. I think the more vintage you get there is also a much smaller supply of said character which also contributes. There are seemingly 10 variant covers and second and third printings for every book now which also doesn't help pricing over the long term.

[delekkerste]

thoughts everyone, paging Gene

 

A friend/fellow Boardie noted that the supply of quality pieces seems to be drying up a bit of late, which has had the knock-on effect of having more money chase lesser quality pieces, boosting those prices. I think this is definitely happening. Despite all the accolades for recent auctions, to be blunt, I thought the last two auction cycles were among the weakest in memory in terms of the quality of art on offer, and some lesser art definitely got bid up as a result.

 

Some art is definitely being left by the wayside, but I do think that, in general, the market has been grinding higher again this year. That said, I do think that the rate of appreciation has definitely slowed since the heady days of 2009-2012. Chances are if you try to flip purchases bought at auction in the past couple of years, you'll be fortunate to recoup your initial outlay after commissions.

 

As for 2015, I guess a good base case would be for more of the same - slow to moderate growth (I'm talking about the overall market; of course certain segments may do significantly better or worse). It's hard to see what would make prices suddenly return to the outsized growth we saw after the last recession ended. On the other hand, if the global economy were to weaken significantly and/or if supply really ramped up and outpaced demand, you could see the market pull back. So, I'd say continued steady growth is the most likely case for 2015, but with greater risks to the downside than running away to the upside.

[J.Sid]

...isn't this the time somebody attaches that "Price Guide" we did last year so we can all update it?

[Lago32]

Good call Jeff....

 

Here is the last update (and it hasn't been modified in a while) cut and pasted from my write-up where it is now based in the forum of CAF. I would love to hear thoughts on what has changed over the past 6 months.

 

 

Hello fellow original comic art collectors!

 

The list that you'll find below was started on another comic art forum early in 2014 really with the simple intent of roughly mapping out which comic artists/runs garner what prices currently. Comic art has seen such a dramatic and exponential increase in value over the past 15 years in particular that it can be daunting for even seasoned collectors to keep up with prices these days. As such, I thought it would be interesting to put a stake in the ground and put pen to paper...or finger to keyboard...and create something that can be used as a loose reference tool. Interestingly, the thread became quite active, generating a good amount of feedback on inclusions, exclusions, and why. In general, it became kind of a neat topic to discuss for us geeks that collect this stuff.

 

So, the list below is based on the general forum consensus for what an A-level interior panel page by that particular artist on that particular run would sell for based on public sales and whatever private sales we are aware of. Once again, these ranges are for A-level interior panel pages - not covers or splashes or the highly coveted A+ examples or strips. There will be many examples of sales that are higher than the ranges I've stated but these are typically for A+ level examples where frankly all bets are off and emotion can take control. What makes an A-level interior panel page example is frankly somewhat subjective, however, I think most can agree that it would typical feature that artist's peak work, possibly from a key issue/story/run, featuring a key character or characters in costume/uniform (if applicable) and possibly in dramatic action.

 

It is important to note that while based on a large amount of public sales (whether auction or otherwise), the following information is loose and fluid and should be used directionally and not taken as an absolute. This is not intended to be a formal price guide. This list once again is intended to be a useful reference tool and hopefully will generate some fun, informative and interesting discussion. As such, any and all feedback on additions or modifications is both welcomed and encouraged. Myself and Hari Naidu will be responsible for updating the list periodically, as feedback is received, and it will remain sticky at the top of the thread for easy reference. Once the list is updated, we will change the updated date at the top of this thread.

 

Finally, a huge thanks to Bill Cox for allowing us to provide a new home for this thread and list.

 

Enough talking.....here is the list!

 

$40k and higher

 

Kirby - Fantastic Four 2up

Ditko - Spider-man

Bolland - Killing Joke

Miller - Dark Knight Returns

 

Wrightson - Frankenstein Plates

 

$30-40k

 

Romita Sr - Spider-man 2up

Frazetta - Creepy (Werewolf Story)

Ditko - Dr.Strange 2up

 

$20-30k

 

McFarlane - Spider-man (ASM)

Byrne - X-men

Gibbons - Watchmen

Wood - Daredevil

Kirby - Tales of Suspense/Avengers

Steranko - X-men/Other

 

Miller - 300 (note: each "page" is a DPS)

 

$10-20k

 

Wrightson - Swamp Thing

Miller - DD/Ronin/Wolverine/Sin City

Romita - Spider-man small-art

Neal Adams - Batman/X-men

Kane/Sprang - Batman 2up

Cockrum - X-men 1st run

John Buscema - Silver Surfer

BWS - Conan

Frazetta - Thun’da/Others

Kirby/Stone - Journey into Mystery/X-men 2up

Bolland - Judge Dredd

Totleben - Miracleman

McKean - Arkham Asylum

Lloyd - V for Vendetta

Kieth - Sandman

Dringenberg - Sandman

Kirby FF - small-art

Everett - GA work

 

Leach - Miracleman

 

$5-10k

 

Totleben - Swamp Thing

Swan - Superman 2up

Kubert - Hawkman/War Art 2up

Sekowsky - JLA 2up (Crisis issues)

Perez/Marcos - Avengers 1st run

Mignola - Hellboy

Buscema - Avengers 1st run

Marshall Rogers - Detective

Neal Adams - Deadman/Green Lantern/Avengers

Mazzucchelli - Daredevil Born Again

Starlin - Captain Marvel and related

Colan - Daredevil

Alex Ross - Marvels/Kingdom Come

Michael Golden - Dr.Strange/Avengers Annual

BWS - Weapon X/Iron Man

Jim Lee - Hush/X-men

Swan/Perez - Superman Man of Tomorrow

Kaluta - Shadow

Byrne - Fantastic Four/Iron Fist

Tony Moore - Walking Dead

Zeck - Punisher/Spidey Kraven Last Hunt

Gibbons - Superman Annual 11

Bachalo - Sandman/Death

Kelley Jones - Sandman

Sienkiewicz - Elektra Assassin

Simonson - Thor (Simonson inks)

Everett - 1970's work

Gulacy - MOKF (pen & ink)

Ditko - Warren work

Wrightson - Warren work

Ware

Miller - ASM Annual

Paul Smith - X-men

 

 

$3-5k

 

Byrne - Cap/MTU/Avengers 1st run

Infantino - Flash 2up

Gil Kane - Atom/Green Lantern 2up

Perez - New Teen Titans/Crisis/Infinity Gauntlet

Art Adams - Longshot/X-men Annual

Ploog - Werewolf by Night/Ghost Rider

Aparo - Batman 1970’s

Michael Turner - Superman/Batman

Cockrum - X-men 2nd run

Dillon - Preacher

Adlard - Walking Dead

Kirby - Cap 2nd run/DC work

Wood/Ingels/Kurtzman/Davis - EC work

Gulacy - MOKF (other inkers)

JRJR - ASM 1st run

Andru - ASM

Hernandez - Love and Rockets

Colan - TOS/Iron Man 2up

Clowes

 

BWS - Machine Man

[AKA Rick]

Today's modern art is tomorrow's vintage art... So, I think there has to be some patience almost like aging fine wine to artwork appreciating in value by both title and artist, generally. So, those who are looking to make a quick buck flipping new art via the big auctions like ComicLink and Heritage may be disappointed. There's only a few elite artists like J. Scott Campbell who are currently producing work that's published that feels sustainable, many of the others still feel like they need a bit more time to prove themselves in the marketplace and are a bit volatile.

 

It's my speculation that comic art is a hobby for the older collectors for the most part, and part of it is inspired by nostalgia. So, when those who collected comic book in the 1970's and 80's in their youth eventually got good paying jobs and disposable income, they moved into that artwork in the Y2K. So, the generation who grew up on the 1990's to Y2K stuff incl. Image Comics, Valiant Comics, Top Cow, Aspen etc. are on the cusp of coming back possibly to create that demand for those pieces.

 

I'm seeing a lot of the random silver, copper and bronze age artwork by less popular artists on key titles still sell well, with Marvel still trumping DC. I'm seeing artwork by artists like Keith Pollard, Sal Buscema, Bob Brown, Don Heck and others who have a good career resume command good sales figures on known character/titles.

 

I think where for some of the silver age art, the key artists were Ditko and Kirby, then expanded to John Buscema and John Romita, will extend to other artists like Infantino and Kane in terms of seeing spikes and surges, especially their work on Flash and Green Lantern respectively.

 

Similarly with the era of Frank Miller and John Byrne where the prices for their work is only affordable to the elite, I think George Perez's artwork is undervalued and we're already seeing the prices for his New Teen Titans work increase over time, as well as Jim Starlin.

 

I still think and am waiting for, as it's not quite happened yet, a surge in attention towards vintage romance, old EC horror and Archie Comics humor covers.

 

I don't see the sector of commissions (unpublished artwork) exploding in any way, and if anything becoming more lackluster and disenchanting those who get into the comic convention game of trying to get commissions with the intent of reselling them. The rates artists charge coupled by the uncertainty of the rendering quality and timing (having to wait and chase down artists to complete the work) makes for bad odds. It's still a great way for fans to get their souvenirs, but the economic upside I think is minimal. It still exists, but anyone looking to make money isn't doing it in commissions.

 

Art is still artist driven as opposed to character driven, although a good (not "great") artist drawing a mediocre title doesn't garner much interest, so a lot of those independent or short lived titles may be tougher sells.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[DocR]

Great points everyone. I agree the market climbed in 2014 but not at near the rate of some of the previous years. I do think there is more risk in some of the modern stuff that may not stand the test of time compared to silver age Marvel. With silver (and bronze age to some extent) you get the added bonus of historical significance that modern art doesn't yet have.

[AKA Rick]

Maybe I'm a bit antiquated, but to me, nothing past 1986 seems that nostalgic to me, and in part I stopped collecting comic books and even reading them at that point ('tho I've since gone back and read some of the stuff I never got around to when released)... and I find it quite easy to rationalize paying bigger dollars for older art and artists than let's say new stuff, even by Jim Lee, Michael Turner, Todd McFarlane, etc. where my passionate bigger dollars I can more easily rationalize going towards the direction of Ditko, Adams (Neal not Arthur), Kirby and stuff pre 1970's, as they feel like they have more stability, substance and prestige. But I know it's 100% the frame of reference for me (and maybe others of my era), whereas I know some younger collectors who go ga-ga over Jim Lee, McFarlane, Turner, Silvestri, etc. and look at Kirby, Ditko, etc. as too simplistic in style.

[Bronty]

well all have our cut off points. For me its 1990.

[AKA Rick]

well all have our cut off points. For me its 1990.

 

I still can appreciate and like if not love some of the new stuff and artists like Charlie Adlard, Mike Allred, Mark Bagley, Ed Benes, J Scott Campbell, John Cassaday, Amanda Conner, Ale Garza, Greg Land, Jim Lee, Todd McFarlane, Steve McNiven, Tim Sale, Michael Turner, etc. as well as a lot of lesser known names... but the whole valuation is summed up by the phrase I often use which is "It's worth $____ to me" with an emphasis of the value from my perspective for my needs, not to disparage what others pay nor charge for their art.

 

I really like artwork with the words/text within the art, and I also tend to be a fan of the more simplistic storytelling from yesteryear.

 

It'll be interesting to see who of today's modern masters will maintain their status in 10 years and which artists will be the top half dozen or so that's highly collected.

[batman_fan]

There are quite a few more recent artist I love and collect like Norm Breyfogle (always #1 on my list), Jeff Jones, Mark Texeira, Christopher Jones, Ty Templeton, and Terry Beatty. There are quite a few I wish I had examples of like McFarlane (Spiderman only), Jim Lee (Batman only), and Bruce Timm (just about anything). Will they stand the test of time? I have no idea but I really like their work.

[Brian Peck]

Collecting for me going to about the mid-90s, the strong nostalgia is 70s and 80s. I have an easy cut-off when they started to have the lettering done digitally. For me its the story and many pages without the dialog on the page doesn't appeal to me. There are exceptions where I like just for the art and covers tend to get a pass.

I am a Marvel Guy grew up reading both DC and Marvel but was drawn more towards the Marvel comics but I still have a sweet spot for many DC series, New Teen Titans, Brave and the Bold, Creeper. I do collect recent art and artists more for the art less nostalgia.

[jjonahjameson1]

Maybe I'm a bit antiquated, but to me, nothing past 1986 seems that nostalgic to me, and in part I stopped collecting comic books and even reading them at that point ('tho I've since gone back and read some of the stuff I never got around to when released)... and I find it quite easy to rationalize paying bigger dollars for older art and artists than let's say new stuff, even by Jim Lee, Michael Turner, Todd McFarlane, etc. where my passionate bigger dollars I can more easily rationalize going towards the direction of Ditko, Adams (Neal not Arthur), Kirby and stuff pre 1970's, as they feel like they have more stability, substance and prestige. But I know it's 100% the frame of reference for me (and maybe others of my era), whereas I know some younger collectors who go ga-ga over Jim Lee, McFarlane, Turner, Silvestri, etc. and look at Kirby, Ditko, etc. as too simplistic in style.

 

Its always interesting to hear everyone's point of view regarding what's old vs what's new. For example, let's take Todd McFarlane's run on the Hulk, which was published mostly in 1987 or his run on ASM in '88/'89. Sure, compared to Kirby & Ditko's Silver Age work, Todd's stuff is 'new', but we are talking about comicart that's 25+ years old and at some point, it shouldn't be considered new anymore.