Total Existing Copies of AF #15 2 2

[vaillant]

My vote was "10x" – I don’t believe books from the sixties, with their print runs, have been conserved in limited quantities.

Also, your collecting market started pretty early, and in the early 1970s Spidey and the FFs were still big sellers, so no less than that, IMO.

[Spiderturtle]

Unless they find a warehouse of AF 15's this book is not going down in any of our lifetimes.

 

There is too much demand and even if the census doubled tomorrow the supply worldwide would drink the AF 15 milkshake right up. I agree there are some nice copies either still in collections of hobbyists who haven't/nor wanted to get their copy/copies graded or original owner collections that have them, however there is a line of collectors who will gladly pony up right away. The number of tickets waiting to buy AF15's is a long line which is my point.

 

The fact of the matter is dealers can't even find them anymore when they are even trying to buy them at full retail.

 

Obviously not a rare book, but the Chicago Cubs will win a World Series quicker than an affordable AF 15 will be showing up before you.

 

The longer you wait the more cash you will have to spend. The 3rd most important comic book of all time has no downside.

 

 

Famous last words.

 

 

If Af 15's go down then the hobby is obviously dead as well.

 

Speaking of "long lines", there are, as I type, 25 copies of Fantasy #15, in various flavors, on eBay alone. If there were people in line to buy them, why would so many copies be available for sale?

 

That there are lots of people who would pay "for the right price" or "if they had the money", but that doesn't really count, does it...? I would buy one for the right price. Am I "in line" to buy one? No.

 

There are long lines for Fantastic Comics #3. There are plenty of people in line for a copy of that book....any copy.

 

And there have been times...hard though it may seem...that even the "third most important comic" has gone down in demand, and therefore value.

 

The ones on eBay are only Buy it Nows with well over market value asking prices.

 

Just because there is a line to buy them doesn't mean people who have 1% of a brain are going pay 5.0 money for a 2.5 copy.

 

Dealers can't keep them in stock. They come in and sell very quickly.

 

That illustrates the point. Price IS a factor that is preventing these "long lines" of people from buying one. If the price was ever spiraling upwards, what is "5.0 money" today would be 2.5 money in time, right...?

 

The point, of course, is that there IS price resistance, which means the people lining up to buy them aren't willing to do so "at any price", which would tell you isn't *as* desirable as some may believe.

 

And who are the people buying them? Are they people who want them because they want them? Are they people who want them because they believe they are good investments? Are they people looking to flip them?

 

I would like one for myself, but they are far beyond what I think is reasonable to pay, in any grade. If one comes along that is substantially under current market, obviously I'm going to buy it....but not to keep. And I am part of that "base of demand" which will keep the value of an item above a certain level...but that base is always changing, and never as solid as one might think.

 

 

Gators 2 steps forward 1 step backward makes sense. Ignore the buy it now listings since those are overpriced and also the seller probably sells it off ebay to ssve on fees. If af15 crashes then the whole silver age and later market will also crash. Safest long term investment i can think of. Even if did crash or is stagnant thens its a good buying opportunity to flip a year or so later

Edited March 6, 2015 by SpiderTurtle

[NewWorldOrder]

Unless they find a warehouse of AF 15's this book is not going down in any of our lifetimes.

 

There is too much demand and even if the census doubled tomorrow the supply worldwide would drink the AF 15 milkshake right up. I agree there are some nice copies either still in collections of hobbyists who haven't/nor wanted to get their copy/copies graded or original owner collections that have them, however there is a line of collectors who will gladly pony up right away. The number of tickets waiting to buy AF15's is a long line which is my point.

 

The fact of the matter is dealers can't even find them anymore when they are even trying to buy them at full retail.

 

Obviously not a rare book, but the Chicago Cubs will win a World Series quicker than an affordable AF 15 will be showing up before you.

 

The longer you wait the more cash you will have to spend. The 3rd most important comic book of all time has no downside.

 

 

Famous last words.

 

 

If Af 15's go down then the hobby is obviously dead as well.

 

Speaking of "long lines", there are, as I type, 25 copies of Fantasy #15, in various flavors, on eBay alone. If there were people in line to buy them, why would so many copies be available for sale?

 

That there are lots of people who would pay "for the right price" or "if they had the money", but that doesn't really count, does it...? I would buy one for the right price. Am I "in line" to buy one? No.

 

There are long lines for Fantastic Comics #3. There are plenty of people in line for a copy of that book....any copy.

 

And there have been times...hard though it may seem...that even the "third most important comic" has gone down in demand, and therefore value.

 

The ones on eBay are only Buy it Nows with well over market value asking prices.

 

Just because there is a line to buy them doesn't mean people who have 1% of a brain are going pay 5.0 money for a 2.5 copy.

 

Dealers can't keep them in stock. They come in and sell very quickly.

 

That illustrates the point. Price IS a factor that is preventing these "long lines" of people from buying one. If the price was ever spiraling upwards, what is "5.0 money" today would be 2.5 money in time, right...?

 

The point, of course, is that there IS price resistance, which means the people lining up to buy them aren't willing to do so "at any price", which would tell you isn't *as* desirable as some may believe.

 

And who are the people buying them? Are they people who want them because they want them? Are they people who want them because they believe they are good investments? Are they people looking to flip them?

 

I would like one for myself, but they are far beyond what I think is reasonable to pay, in any grade. If one comes along that is substantially under current market, obviously I'm going to buy it....but not to keep. And I am part of that "base of demand" which will keep the value of an item above a certain level...but that base is always changing, and never as solid as one might think.

 

Well I assume the people in line waiting for one aren't going to pay 15K for a CGC 2.0.

 

A little common sense here dude.

 

You put a CGC 4.0 up on a dealers wall at GPA or slightly above it will be sold by the end of the con weekend.

 

I hope you do find an affordable one, however if you are hoping you can sneak one out at a lower cost by a decent margin I think that will be pretty hard to accomplish in your lifetime. Unless maybe you find one in a collection and that person doesn't know the value of the book.

Edited March 6, 2015 by SPECTRE_#SOT

[NewWorldOrder]

I don't think I am alone when I say if AF 15's burst in value then so do all other books in this hobby.

 

I don't see key issues of the major American folk-lure gods going down in value in our lifetime.

[Lazyboy]

I don't think I am alone when I say if AF 15's burst in value then so do all other books in this hobby.

Pretty much, yeah.

 

I don't see key issues of the major American folk-lure gods going down in value in our lifetime.

You're not that old and we're about the same age. You will almost certainly see most copies of the big SA keys drop - not only from whatever highs they reach, but below current prices - in your lifetime, unless you're planning on dying young. The highest grades might be able to hold their value better just because they are in a different market.

[Spiderturtle]

I don't think I am alone when I say if AF 15's burst in value then so do all other books in this hobby.

 

I don't see key issues of the major American folk-lure gods going down in value in our lifetime.

 

Ive sold a total of approximately 30 af15s since 2009. Mostly low grades. None of them was sold for a loss. Also they sold quickly, about less than a week after trying to sell them

[RockMyAmadeus]

Unless they find a warehouse of AF 15's this book is not going down in any of our lifetimes.

 

There is too much demand and even if the census doubled tomorrow the supply worldwide would drink the AF 15 milkshake right up. I agree there are some nice copies either still in collections of hobbyists who haven't/nor wanted to get their copy/copies graded or original owner collections that have them, however there is a line of collectors who will gladly pony up right away. The number of tickets waiting to buy AF15's is a long line which is my point.

 

The fact of the matter is dealers can't even find them anymore when they are even trying to buy them at full retail.

 

Obviously not a rare book, but the Chicago Cubs will win a World Series quicker than an affordable AF 15 will be showing up before you.

 

The longer you wait the more cash you will have to spend. The 3rd most important comic book of all time has no downside.

 

 

Famous last words.

 

 

If Af 15's go down then the hobby is obviously dead as well.

 

Speaking of "long lines", there are, as I type, 25 copies of Fantasy #15, in various flavors, on eBay alone. If there were people in line to buy them, why would so many copies be available for sale?

 

That there are lots of people who would pay "for the right price" or "if they had the money", but that doesn't really count, does it...? I would buy one for the right price. Am I "in line" to buy one? No.

 

There are long lines for Fantastic Comics #3. There are plenty of people in line for a copy of that book....any copy.

 

And there have been times...hard though it may seem...that even the "third most important comic" has gone down in demand, and therefore value.

 

The ones on eBay are only Buy it Nows with well over market value asking prices.

 

Just because there is a line to buy them doesn't mean people who have 1% of a brain are going pay 5.0 money for a 2.5 copy.

 

Dealers can't keep them in stock. They come in and sell very quickly.

 

That illustrates the point. Price IS a factor that is preventing these "long lines" of people from buying one. If the price was ever spiraling upwards, what is "5.0 money" today would be 2.5 money in time, right...?

 

The point, of course, is that there IS price resistance, which means the people lining up to buy them aren't willing to do so "at any price", which would tell you isn't *as* desirable as some may believe.

 

And who are the people buying them? Are they people who want them because they want them? Are they people who want them because they believe they are good investments? Are they people looking to flip them?

 

I would like one for myself, but they are far beyond what I think is reasonable to pay, in any grade. If one comes along that is substantially under current market, obviously I'm going to buy it....but not to keep. And I am part of that "base of demand" which will keep the value of an item above a certain level...but that base is always changing, and never as solid as one might think.

 

Well I assume the people in line waiting for one aren't going to pay 15K for a CGC 2.0.

 

Sure...now.

 

They will if they have no other choice, or they will drop out of line. That's how the market works.

 

A little common sense here dude.

 

Common sense? What does "common sense" have to do with the market?

 

When you were in grade school, people were paying $3,000 for high grade copies.

 

If you had said that high grade copies would sell for $100,000+ in 20 years, they would have laughed, and told you "a little common sense here, dude."

 

You put a CGC 4.0 up on a dealers wall at GPA or slightly above it will be sold by the end of the con weekend.

 

Sure....now. There's nothing that will guarantee that will be true in the future.

 

I hope you do find an affordable one, however if you are hoping you can sneak one out at a lower cost by a decent margin I think that will be pretty hard to accomplish in your lifetime. Unless maybe you find one in a collection and that person doesn't know the value of the book.

 

I am not hoping for anything like that. I don't need one, and have never really desired one. There are a hell of a lot more that I can get for my money that I would enjoy much, much more (a #100-#200 run of Detective Comics, for example.) But that doesn't mean that prices cannot, and will not, come down.

 

The demand far, far outstrips supply, true...but the supply is not insubstantial, by any means.

 

 

[RockMyAmadeus]

I don't think I am alone when I say if AF 15's burst in value then so do all other books in this hobby.

 

I don't see key issues of the major American folk-lure gods going down in value in our lifetime.

 

Again...famous last words.

 

I don't know what a folk-lure is, though.

 

 

Is that what you use to capture hillbillies...?

[NewWorldOrder]

Unless they find a warehouse of AF 15's this book is not going down in any of our lifetimes.

 

There is too much demand and even if the census doubled tomorrow the supply worldwide would drink the AF 15 milkshake right up. I agree there are some nice copies either still in collections of hobbyists who haven't/nor wanted to get their copy/copies graded or original owner collections that have them, however there is a line of collectors who will gladly pony up right away. The number of tickets waiting to buy AF15's is a long line which is my point.

 

The fact of the matter is dealers can't even find them anymore when they are even trying to buy them at full retail.

 

Obviously not a rare book, but the Chicago Cubs will win a World Series quicker than an affordable AF 15 will be showing up before you.

 

The longer you wait the more cash you will have to spend. The 3rd most important comic book of all time has no downside.

 

 

Famous last words.

 

 

If Af 15's go down then the hobby is obviously dead as well.

 

Speaking of "long lines", there are, as I type, 25 copies of Fantasy #15, in various flavors, on eBay alone. If there were people in line to buy them, why would so many copies be available for sale?

 

That there are lots of people who would pay "for the right price" or "if they had the money", but that doesn't really count, does it...? I would buy one for the right price. Am I "in line" to buy one? No.

 

There are long lines for Fantastic Comics #3. There are plenty of people in line for a copy of that book....any copy.

 

And there have been times...hard though it may seem...that even the "third most important comic" has gone down in demand, and therefore value.

 

The ones on eBay are only Buy it Nows with well over market value asking prices.

 

Just because there is a line to buy them doesn't mean people who have 1% of a brain are going pay 5.0 money for a 2.5 copy.

 

Dealers can't keep them in stock. They come in and sell very quickly.

 

That illustrates the point. Price IS a factor that is preventing these "long lines" of people from buying one. If the price was ever spiraling upwards, what is "5.0 money" today would be 2.5 money in time, right...?

 

The point, of course, is that there IS price resistance, which means the people lining up to buy them aren't willing to do so "at any price", which would tell you isn't *as* desirable as some may believe.

 

And who are the people buying them? Are they people who want them because they want them? Are they people who want them because they believe they are good investments? Are they people looking to flip them?

 

I would like one for myself, but they are far beyond what I think is reasonable to pay, in any grade. If one comes along that is substantially under current market, obviously I'm going to buy it....but not to keep. And I am part of that "base of demand" which will keep the value of an item above a certain level...but that base is always changing, and never as solid as one might think.

 

Well I assume the people in line waiting for one aren't going to pay 15K for a CGC 2.0.

 

Sure...now.

 

They will if they have no other choice, or they will drop out of line. That's how the market works.

 

A little common sense here dude.

 

Common sense? What does "common sense" have to do with the market?

 

When you were in grade school, people were paying $3,000 for high grade copies.

 

If you had said that high grade copies would sell for $100,000+ in 20 years, they would have laughed, and told you "a little common sense here, dude."

 

You put a CGC 4.0 up on a dealers wall at GPA or slightly above it will be sold by the end of the con weekend.

 

Sure....now. There's nothing that will guarantee that will be true in the future.

 

I hope you do find an affordable one, however if you are hoping you can sneak one out at a lower cost by a decent margin I think that will be pretty hard to accomplish in your lifetime. Unless maybe you find one in a collection and that person doesn't know the value of the book.

 

I am not hoping for anything like that. I don't need one, and have never really desired one. There are a hell of a lot more that I can get for my money that I would enjoy much, much more (a #100-#200 run of Detective Comics, for example.) But that doesn't mean that prices cannot, and will not, come down.

 

The demand far, far outstrips supply, true...but the supply is not insubstantial, by any means.

 

 

I can only go on what evidence has been given to me since I have been in the hobby. So I believe no this book will not be going down in my lifetime. Besides comics having that little scare in the late 90's. These GA/SA/BA ultra key books are safer than gold.

 

We all have been told by many people that digital comics and video games would spell the end of comics books, well that was in 1993 so I am over hearing that non-sense so same goes for this. Could AF 15's go down sure, but since the book has risen essentially in value every year since it came out I think its a safe bet that it will continue to rise in value.

 

So if you don't need an AF 15 great. I assumed you did since you were posting in this thread. Enjoy buying what you enjoy then.

[NewWorldOrder]

I don't think I am alone when I say if AF 15's burst in value then so do all other books in this hobby.

Pretty much, yeah.

 

I don't see key issues of the major American folk-lure gods going down in value in our lifetime.

You're not that old and we're about the same age. You will almost certainly see most copies of the big SA keys drop - not only from whatever highs they reach, but below current prices - in your lifetime, unless you're planning on dying young. The highest grades might be able to hold their value better just because they are in a different market.

 

So why do you think the SA keys will go down?

 

Disney buying Marvel IMO was one of the biggest stories in the history of comic books.

 

Obviously I am not in agreement with the 2nd part of your post.

[thunsicker]

I don't think I am alone when I say if AF 15's burst in value then so do all other books in this hobby.

 

I don't see key issues of the major American folk-lure gods going down in value in our lifetime.

 

Possibly. But that isn't a given. The amount of people who can spend 3-5 thousand on a mid-grade key as a hobby and not an investment is much greater than the amount of people who can spend 20-40 thousand on a mid-grade AF 15 as a hobby and not an investment. If prices start to drop more people who bought as an investment will bail than people who bought as a hobby.

[Superman2006]

In case anyone is interested, here are how the results to date across my Gold, Silver, and Bronze forum polls about the estimated total copies still in existence for Action #1, AF #15, and Hulk #181 respectively;

 

 

Weighted Average estimated total copies still in existence*:

 

Action #1: 279

AF #15: 15,384 (or approximately 55 copies of AF #15 for every 1 copy of Action #1)

Hulk #181: 82,282 (or approximately 292 copies of Hulk #181 for every 1 copy of Action #1)

 

 

*Note: The last poll option for each poll was "10 x current graded copies or more". For purposes of calculating the weighted averages shown above, I assumed that responses in this category were evenly distributed between 10 x and 20 x the current graded copies. If I were to instead assume that responses in this category were evenly distributed between 10 x and 15 x the current graded copies, we would get the following slightly different results (as you can see, no major change);

 

Action #1: 265

AF #15: 14,081 (or approximately 53 copies of AF #15 for every 1 copy of Action #1)

Hulk #181: 71,220 (or approximately 268 copies of Hulk #181 for every 1 copy of Action #1)

 

 

FYI - Total count of responses for each poll (through 9:00 p.m. CST today):

Action #1: 102

AF #15: 140

Hulk #181: 93

[G.A.tor]

I don't think I am alone when I say if AF 15's burst in value then so do all other books in this hobby.

 

I don't see key issues of the major American folk-lure gods going down in value in our lifetime.

 

Ive sold a total of approximately 30 af15s since 2009. Mostly low grades. None of them was sold for a loss. Also they sold quickly, about less than a week after trying to sell them

I've sold over 200 af15s last 10 years or so. Also never lost money on any copy but there have been periods I've bought them at a much quicker pace than I've been able to sell due to those stagnation periods. But over time always been good to me

[markseifert]

Heya, good work on this... even if it's just anecdotal, it's very interesting to see what the perception is on these.

 

I finally got interested enough to google some statements of ownership that are relevant (but not interested enough to crack open the books.. maybe later )

 

There was a very good discussion on probably AF 15 paid circulation here sometime back (linking the gpanalysis archive version as that's what comes up with a quick google):

 

http://cgcforum.gpanalysis.com/cgcforum_thread.asp?pagenumber=392&ThreadID=2486186&forumID=16&threadName=Amazing+Fantasy+%2315+Club

 

Good analysis there, and presuming accurate info that changes our thumbnail calc here substantially, putting paid circulation more likely in the 100k to 125k range (given the book was canceled while books from that year with listed numbers there survived).

 

Have to say this changes my perception on the issue substantially... as some of the upper estimates on extant copies in our thread here (30k range) seem inconceivable. It's just a gut reaction, but it seems highly unlikely that 25% to 30% of circulated copies survived.

 

Given that fandom and collecting was coming on strong by the mid-60s (leading to Overstreet in 1970), I'd still say it's not outrageous to think that ten percent of circulated copies survived. But that IS just a gut feeling, and hard to say where I'd draw the line. 15%? Maybe. 20% is where it starts to feel pretty unlikely to me.

 

 

 

In case anyone is interested, here are how the results to date across my Gold, Silver, and Bronze forum polls about the estimated total copies still in existence for Action #1, AF #15, and Hulk #181 respectively;

 

 

Weighted Average estimated total copies still in existence*:

 

Action #1: 279

AF #15: 15,384 (or approximately 55 copies of AF #15 for every 1 copy of Action #1)

Hulk #181: 82,282 (or approximately 292 copies of Hulk #181 for every 1 copy of Action #1)

 

 

*Note: The last poll option for each poll was "10 x current graded copies or more". For purposes of calculating the weighted averages shown above, I assumed that responses in this category were evenly distributed between 10 x and 20 x the current graded copies. If I were to instead assume that responses in this category were evenly distributed between 10 x and 15 x the current graded copies, we would get the following slightly different results (as you can see, no major change);

 

Action #1: 265

AF #15: 14,081 (or approximately 53 copies of AF #15 for every 1 copy of Action #1)

Hulk #181: 71,220 (or approximately 268 copies of Hulk #181 for every 1 copy of Action #1)

 

 

FYI - Total count of responses for each poll (through 9:00 p.m. CST today):

Action #1: 102

AF #15: 140

Hulk #181: 93

[Superman2006]

Thanks. If you take your gut feeling estimated survival % figure of 10%, and multiply that by the average of your estimated paid circulation range, i.e. 112,500, you end up with an estimated 11,250 surviving copies (which is actually not too far off from my personal guesstimate going into the poll of 10K copies).

[BarryAllen]

60 is pretty impressive.

 

It is also a little crazy. On the low end that is over $100K in books and on the high end it could easily be over a million. That is just stupid money to be sitting around in a box. I mean how much cash do you have to have to not care about a million dollars just sitting around?

 

You would be better off with a money bin to swim in. At least that has security systems to protect from the Beagle Boys!

 

trust me, a million means nothing in the financial scheme, to this individual (thumbs u

 

 

Feel free to share any business practices. I would be happy to share that problem with you!

[BarryAllen]

What is a million dollars to people who have hundreds of millions? And what's a million dollars to someone who paid 10-12-15-25-50 cents each for them, as some did?

Sure - however people who have hundreds of millions make up an infinitesimally small portion of the population. Are you suggesting that all these known hoarders of AF 15 are hundred millionaires? Seems statistically unlikely.

FYI - people who aren't hundred millionaires and paid 10-50 cents for a book worth thousands now most definitely care. People in general are motivated by money (especially in the US), of course they care. They only don't care if they don't need the money or are mentally ill.

 

There are people with coin collections with multiple individual coins worth over a million.

Great, what is your point?

 

Here's a registry set worth over a million dollars:

 

http://coins.www.collectors-society.com/registry/coins/SetListing.aspx?PeopleSetID=67641&Ranking=ngc

 

Here's a set with at least one million+ coin (1927-D), and several hundred thousand dollar coins:

 

http://coins.www.collectors-society.com/registry/coins/SetListing.aspx?PeopleSetID=169198&Ranking=all

 

It's all relative.

Again, great. People out there are collecting things that are worth money? What is your point?

 

 

 

 

 

 

Side note - there is a difference between someone who has a graded registry set (coin, comic or beanie babies) that is publicly tracked and someone who has a box of over 50 AF 15s hanging out in their basement. These are clearly differently motivated people.

 

 

_________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

 

For the sake of discussion let's say there are 3.44 million people in the US who are millionaires (not hundred millionaires, plain old common millionaires and up), with a population of about 318.9 million people that is about 1.1% of the total population. Are these the people who own the AF 15 hoards?

 

Sure wealth and value are relative to the wealth of the individual and the value they place on a given object - but there is clearly something else going on. Either these people don't know what they have (unlikely given that they hoarded them - people don't collect specific things that they know nothing about), don't care because they are Scrooge McDuck (moderately likely, but very very very small population) or they truly don't exist in abundance and few select real individuals have been created into an urban legend that drives many of these discussions into even greater levels of speculation (highly likely).

[jimjum12]

ALL copies still exist..... but in varying degrees of entropy and degradation. GOD BLESS...

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus) (thumbs u

[BarryAllen]

ALL copies still exist..... but in varying degrees of entropy and degradation. GOD BLESS...

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus) (thumbs u

 

Like as in "energy can not be created or destroyed, only transformed" type of discussion?

[jimjum12]

ALL copies still exist..... but in varying degrees of entropy and degradation. GOD BLESS...

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus) (thumbs u

 

Like as in "energy can not be created or destroyed, only transformed" type of discussion?