Total Existing Copies of AF #15 2 2

[Jaydogrules]

As far as the 10:1 part....there are many ways to perform a deductive analysis.... say a ratio/proportion scenario where one compares the number of comics produced since 1933 to the number of bags and boards sold versus the number of books slabbed..... or the number of CGC Short Boxes sold versus the number of Long Boxes sold..... the truth will become crystal clear. GOD BLESS...

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus) (thumbs u

 

 

..... you're very intelligent and I respect your bulldog tenacity..... but don't limit yourself by being "so smart you have nothing to learn".

 

I would actually really like to see something like that played out, especially if it proves me wrong.

 

 

...it would...if "wrong" is even the correct concept here..... neither of us have anything of consequence at stake. Honestly.....I'd say. speculatively based on my personal experience ..... no less than 1500 (that's the easy part ) and no more than 8000.......some states have less than 100 and some, way more.

 

I am comfortable with that range.

 

 

Agreed. That's probably the ballpark.

 

What were we arguing about again ?

 

-J.

[BarryAllen]

You're asking him for proof he cannot provide. You would have to seek out every collector who owns raw copies of AF 15 in order to validate. A comic like AF 15 rarely trades hands raw, therefore most sales data is going to be for slabbed copies.

 

It's conjecture but I also believe that there are far more raw copies exisiting than people think.

 

I understand that is likely true. However, without proof it is just speculation and not proven valid. Other data that has been provided that suggests otherwise.

 

:shrug: If someone cannot support a claim with data or evidence, then they need to be prepared when people challenge it and ultimately refute legitimacy.

 

I am trying my best not to be rude. Hopefully I am not offending anyone.

 

You're not offending me although based on what I've seen of your posting history, I think you take this stuff way too seriously. It's a comic book message board not a debating class. However, that's neither here nor there.

Data that confirms that most sales of AF 15 are slabbed copies is not proof of how many raw copies are out there still locked up in personal collections. It's only proof of how many slabbed copies have been sold.

 

 

I am passionate, I will give you that. Sometimes it is good, other times not so much. Kinda wired this way though.

 

I am linking market sales to market inventory, I don't think that is a long stretch. However, I understand where your challenge is coming from - I just disagree because I feel it is more than a causal link.

[BarryAllen]

As far as the 10:1 part....there are many ways to perform a deductive analysis.... say a ratio/proportion scenario where one compares the number of comics produced since 1933 to the number of bags and boards sold versus the number of books slabbed..... or the number of CGC Short Boxes sold versus the number of Long Boxes sold..... the truth will become crystal clear. GOD BLESS...

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus) (thumbs u

 

 

..... you're very intelligent and I respect your bulldog tenacity..... but don't limit yourself by being "so smart you have nothing to learn".

 

I would actually really like to see something like that played out, especially if it proves me wrong.

 

 

...it would...if "wrong" is even the correct concept here..... neither of us have anything of consequence at stake. Honestly.....I'd say. speculatively based on my personal experience ..... no less than 1500 (that's the easy part ) and no more than 8000.......some states have less than 100 and some, way more.

 

I am comfortable with that range.

 

 

Agreed. That's probably the ballpark.

 

What were we arguing about again ?

 

-J.

For awhile there I was arguing about arguing.

 

[jimjum12]

A record of what has been sold (or slabbed) has nothing to do with the question of how many are left. MANY MANY people do not feel comfortable mailing their valuable stuff. CGC has only slabbed 2 million books, surely you don't believe that to be even a fraction of the comics that are still in use with collectors ? If so, there really won't be any way to reach you. Hardly any of my collection is slabbed. I'm not saying I don't like the product.... but I need more out of my comic than a slab allows..... and I'm not the only one. Just saying.... GOD BLESS...

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus) (thumbs u

 

....don't get so caught up in the ego of the argument that You're unable to walk into any shop or show and be able to see just how many raw books are being bought and sold versus those slabbed. Compare the number of slabs on eBay versus the number of raw, etc..... see the truth.

[BarryAllen]

A record of what has been sold (or slabbed) has nothing to do with the question of how many are left. MANY MANY people do not feel comfortable mailing their valuable stuff. CGC has only slabbed 2 million books, surely you don't believe that to be even a fraction of the comics that are still in use with collectors ? If so, there really won't be any way to reach you. Hardly any of my collection is slabbed. I'm not saying I don't like the product.... but I need more out of my comic than a slab allows..... and I'm not the only one. Just saying.... GOD BLESS...

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus) (thumbs u

 

....don't get so caught up in the ego of the argument that You're unable to walk into any shop or show and be able to see just how many raw books are being bought and sold versus those slabbed. Compare the number of slabs on eBay versus the number of raw, etc..... see the truth.

 

I appreciate the positive approach and push to broaden my viewpoint. On this one can we just agree to disagree?

[Jeffro.]

You're asking him for proof he cannot provide. You would have to seek out every collector who owns raw copies of AF 15 in order to validate. A comic like AF 15 rarely trades hands raw, therefore most sales data is going to be for slabbed copies.

 

It's conjecture but I also believe that there are far more raw copies exisiting than people think.

 

I understand that is likely true. However, without proof it is just speculation and not proven valid. Other data that has been provided that suggests otherwise.

 

:shrug: If someone cannot support a claim with data or evidence, then they need to be prepared when people challenge it and ultimately refute legitimacy.

 

I am trying my best not to be rude. Hopefully I am not offending anyone.

 

You're not offending me although based on what I've seen of your posting history, I think you take this stuff way too seriously. It's a comic book message board not a debating class. However, that's neither here nor there.

Data that confirms that most sales of AF 15 are slabbed copies is not proof of how many raw copies are out there still locked up in personal collections. It's only proof of how many slabbed copies have been sold.

 

 

I am passionate, I will give you that. Sometimes it is good, other times not so much. Kinda wired this way though.

 

I am linking market sales to market inventory, I don't think that is a long stretch. However, I understand where your challenge is coming from - I just disagree because I feel it is more than a causal link.

 

On both sides of the argument, it's interesting speculation but that's all it is really and it's fine to disagree.

Data of slabbed sales only proves sales of slabbed copies. It says absolutely nothing about the number of existing raw copies, however many that may be.

 

 

[Jaydogrules]

A record of what has been sold (or slabbed) has nothing to do with the question of how many are left. MANY MANY people do not feel comfortable mailing their valuable stuff. CGC has only slabbed 2 million books, surely you don't believe that to be even a fraction of the comics that are still in use with collectors ? If so, there really won't be any way to reach you. Hardly any of my collection is slabbed. I'm not saying I don't like the product.... but I need more out of my comic than a slab allows..... and I'm not the only one. Just saying.... GOD BLESS...

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus) (thumbs u

 

....don't get so caught up in the ego of the argument that You're unable to walk into any shop or show and be able to see just how many raw books are being bought and sold versus those slabbed. Compare the number of slabs on eBay versus the number of raw, etc..... see the truth.

 

With due respect, I just can't get behind this logic either. High dollar and high liquidity books are going to be far, far more likely to be slabbed than other books. Dealers scour OO collections looking for these things and slab them immediately. And from what I am hearing and seeing, they just aren't turning up as frequently as they used to. AF 15 is the monster book of the silver age, and that's why its census population is as high as it is, when even compared to FF 1.

 

-J.

[jimjum12]

A record of what has been sold (or slabbed) has nothing to do with the question of how many are left. MANY MANY people do not feel comfortable mailing their valuable stuff. CGC has only slabbed 2 million books, surely you don't believe that to be even a fraction of the comics that are still in use with collectors ? If so, there really won't be any way to reach you. Hardly any of my collection is slabbed. I'm not saying I don't like the product.... but I need more out of my comic than a slab allows..... and I'm not the only one. Just saying.... GOD BLESS...

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus) (thumbs u

 

....don't get so caught up in the ego of the argument that You're unable to walk into any shop or show and be able to see just how many raw books are being bought and sold versus those slabbed. Compare the number of slabs on eBay versus the number of raw, etc..... see the truth.

 

With due respect, I just can't get behind this logic either. High dollar and high liquidity books are going to be far, far more likely to be slabbed than other books. AF 15 is the monster book of the silver age, and that's why its census population is as high as it is, when even compared to FF 1.

 

-J.

 

.....I think I need to go take a nap. You guys wore me out. I'm done anyway...... and yes, it would likely have a huge ratio. Just not all. GOD BLESS....

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus) (thumbs u

[Jeffro.]

As far as the 10:1 part....there are many ways to perform a deductive analysis.... say a ratio/proportion scenario where one compares the number of comics produced since 1933 to the number of bags and boards sold versus the number of books slabbed..... or the number of CGC Short Boxes sold versus the number of Long Boxes sold..... the truth will become crystal clear. GOD BLESS...

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus) (thumbs u

 

 

..... you're very intelligent and I respect your bulldog tenacity..... but don't limit yourself by being "so smart you have nothing to learn".

 

Jim, rfoii's point is well taken and his data is tangible, whereas yours is not. First, we have the census. A 15+ years worth of information that has been compiled. We see less than 1450 blue labels recorded by them, and the most common grade being a 3.0. Next, we see the vast majority of copies being sold as being slabbed. There are some raw copies that trade hands as well, but the VAST majority are slabs. Further the notion that people only slab a copy when they intend to sell is disingenuous and presumptuous. I personally own one copy and I slabbed it for preservation and presentation, not to sell. If people just slabbed to sell, why don't we see 2000 copies on the market right now instead of 20? I will slab a crappy modern if it gets to be worth a couple hundred dollars. And I'm just one guy. Am I the only person who slabs his own personal collection for this reason ? Hardly. (thumbs u

 

-J.

 

It's true that not everyone slabs to sell. However, many slab because they will eventually sell. I'm also not so sure how accurate that 1450 number is due to crack/press/resub. CGC is not always made aware of the fact that a comic has been deslabbed. It's been suggested that census numbers may, in some cases, not be as accurate as the actual number would indicate. Again, speculation admittedly but taking that 1450 number as gospel is naive.

[Jaydogrules]

As far as the 10:1 part....there are many ways to perform a deductive analysis.... say a ratio/proportion scenario where one compares the number of comics produced since 1933 to the number of bags and boards sold versus the number of books slabbed..... or the number of CGC Short Boxes sold versus the number of Long Boxes sold..... the truth will become crystal clear. GOD BLESS...

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus) (thumbs u

 

 

..... you're very intelligent and I respect your bulldog tenacity..... but don't limit yourself by being "so smart you have nothing to learn".

 

Jim, rfoii's point is well taken and his data is tangible, whereas yours is not. First, we have the census. A 15+ years worth of information that has been compiled. We see less than 1450 blue labels recorded by them, and the most common grade being a 3.0. Next, we see the vast majority of copies being sold as being slabbed. There are some raw copies that trade hands as well, but the VAST majority are slabs. Further the notion that people only slab a copy when they intend to sell is disingenuous and presumptuous. I personally own one copy and I slabbed it for preservation and presentation, not to sell. If people just slabbed to sell, why don't we see 2000 copies on the market right now instead of 20? I will slab a crappy modern if it gets to be worth a couple hundred dollars. And I'm just one guy. Am I the only person who slabs his own personal collection for this reason ? Hardly. (thumbs u

 

-J.

 

It's true that not everyone slabs to sell. However, many slab because they will eventually sell. I'm also not so sure how accurate that 1450 number is due to crack/press/resub. CGC is not always made aware of the fact that a comic has been deslabbed. It's been suggested that census numbers may, in some cases, not be as accurate as the actual number would indicate. Again, speculation admittedly but taking that 1450 number as gospel is naive.

 

I certainly don't. And I agree that the CPR game probably reduces the actual number by 10-15% if not more. On a book like this the incentive to do it is massive since just a 0.5 bump can be a difference in $10k or more in value.

 

-J.

[Lazyboy]

If people just slabbed to sell, why don't we see 2000 copies on the market right now instead of 20?

Because the goal was accomplished. They did sell, and the new owner doesn't want to sell right now. We don't even know if the copy is still encapsulated.

 

Am I the only person who slabs his own personal collection for this reason ? Hardly.

No, but you're in the minority of people who submit comics to CGC, let alone collectors in general. You have a bad habit of overrating CGC's importance and influence. Slabbed copies of very nearly anything are a small minority.

[RockMyAmadeus]

No. I'm suggesting that, to certain people, having a million dollars worth of books means nothing. The conclusion you are drawing cannot be drawn from my statement.

Sure and to some people turning purple and having a monkey as their butler is normal. What I am saying is that it isn't a something that is pervasive throughout the population. You are using an extremely small sample size to make a point, it isn't a productive example.

 

You are still missing the point.

 

FYI - people who aren't hundred millionaires and paid 10-50 cents for a book worth thousands now most definitely care.

How do you know? How do you prove such a claim?

This is basic psychology, people's motivations are directly tied to improving and furthering their well-being. In modern society money is a base requirement to secure and further well-being; therefore, money is important. If it wasn't society wouldn't accept spending a large part of their life at work to earn it - many times sacrificing their health and ironically their well-being.

 

Sure I used sarcasm to make a point with my original statement, but that doesn't make it less true. People care about money.

 

The answer is, you don't know, and have no way to prove such a claim. You don't know if those who paid 10-50 cents for it care that it is "worth thousands", in the context of this discussion (that is, potential saleability.) To respond with "well, obviously everyone cares about money!" is much too broad, far too simplistic, and has no relevance to this discussion.

 

We are talking specifically about AF #15, not the general necessity of money in life. Obviously, that wasn't the question asked.

 

In future, if you would please preserve pertinent quotes, I would appreciate it. I have restored the important part of the original quote, for clarity.

 

I'll explain it again: it's all about perspective.

That isn't an explanation, it is a typical non-responsive and condescending answer from you. Please clarify your statements when people ask for it.

 

There is no condescension involved; if you believe there is, you are reading what isn't there. I have explained it as clearly as I can: it's all about perspective.

 

Please do refrain from making personal comments like "typical." It is unnecessarily combative, and leads to nothing positive.

 

In typical fashion you are switching from discussing a topic to dissecting someone's argument point by point for the sake of argument. You don't focus on the topic, you focus on the individual and their statements.

 

I am not the topic of discussion, so please don't discuss me. How anyone discusses things is not relevant, and frequently leads to completely unnecessary conflict.

 

Let's stick to the topic. I do you the courtesy of not discussing you and how I perceive you communicate; please extend me the same courtesy. If you are dissatisfied with the way I dialogue, please don't feel any obligation to continue. There are many hundreds of other people on these boards to interact with.

 

[RockMyAmadeus]

Back to the topic of af15, please!

Ok. :shrug:

 

Here is my point of the existance of multiple hoarders:

 

Either these people don't know what they have (unlikely given that they hoarded them - people don't collect specific things that they know nothing about), don't care because they are Scrooge McDuck (moderately likely, but very very very small population) or they truly don't exist in abundance and few select real individuals have been created into an urban legend that drives many of these discussions into even greater levels of speculation (highly likely).

 

Your conclusions ignore many of the realities of the comic book market.

 

I do not know if you draw them because you don't understand the market, or you just don't like the realities thereof, but they ignore market realities nonetheless.

 

[G.A.tor]

Would love for metro to give their persoective... I've been setting up at cons since 2006, but going to them since 1988 (first sdcc) . And in all major cons for years and years metro had 6-15 copies of af15 for sale at the start of the con. Most all raw. This has gone on for years (until recently). By cons end, they typically had sold most all copies.

 

And this is a compliment to metro....at their prices they werent selling to resellers/dealers but to collectors. I bet they've sold hundreds and hundreds of raw af15 over the past years of which I suspect most are still in a raw state

[RockMyAmadeus]

I think it is relatively likely that there are multiple people out there with 50+ copies of AF15 hoarded as an investment.

 

It's a pretty common book that has been in huge demand for decades. It wouldn't be surprising to find people who have been buying 2-3 copies a year for 20-30 years.

 

People often have very nutty allocations of investments compared to their incomes. I've seen a lot of people with middle class incomes with millions in company stock in their 401k. Sensible people would diversify, but many don't.

 

I bet there are some long-time comic collector/dealers who are doing the same thing with AF15. On top of that, the can't miss feelings about this book have likely fueled additional hoarding in more recent years.

 

You are making leaps in logic to try to draw a conclusion you predetermined.

 

You then proceed to do the same thing in reply...

 

 

Very few people have the free cash to accomplish what you are claiming. And of those that do, even fewer would spend their time or money on comics.

 

In real terms? What is "very few"? It's easy to use vague terms that can then be walked back at a later date. Put some meat to your statements by quantifying them.

 

Sure are there a few examples of this, definitely. Are there more than 10 - maybe, more than 20 - it would be statistically unlikely.

 

According to what statistics?

 

Outside of dealers, very few people hoard 50+ books of the same issue.

 

How do you know this? What evidence do you have of this? How many is "very few"? 1% of the collecting world? .1%? .01%?

 

This can be said about any comic. Again, there are those that hoard a given issue, but there aren't large numbers of people hoarding the same issue in multiples of 50 and higher. Maybe (and I say that loosely) you could find larger support for this behavior in books post 1980, maybe.

 

People just want this to be true for convenience of argument, but outside of a few single references there is not data to support such a claim.

 

No, people BELIEVE it to be true based on experience, observation, and actual data. What possible gain does anyone have from "wanting" be believe that the total extant number of copies of AF #15 is higher than it actually is...? Is this discussion going to crash the market? Are people going to read this thread and think "oh, man, I didn't know how common this book really is! Pass!"

 

It's silliness.

 

We have multiple data points: general print run, general sales information, the history of the book specifically, the history of the hobby in the historical context of the book, habits of buyers and collectors and dealers over the past 50 years...

 

..."not data"...?

 

[RockMyAmadeus]

Would love for metro to give their persoective... I've been setting up at cons since 2006, but going to them since 1988 (first sdcc) . And in all major cons for years and years metro had 6-15 copies of af15 for sale at the start of the con. Most all raw. This has gone on for years (until recently). By cons end, they typically had sold most all copies.

 

And this is a compliment to metro....at their prices they werent selling to resellers/dealers but to collectors. I bet they've sold hundreds and hundreds of raw af15 over the past years of which I suspect most are still in a raw state

 

Indeed...if the number isn't thousands....

 

[G.A.tor]

Back to the topic of af15, please!

Ok. :shrug:

 

Here is my point of the existance of multiple hoarders:

 

Either these people don't know what they have (unlikely given that they hoarded them - people don't collect specific things that they know nothing about), don't care because they are Scrooge McDuck (moderately likely, but very very very small population) or they truly don't exist in abundance and few select real individuals have been created into an urban legend that drives many of these discussions into even greater levels of speculation (highly likely).

 

Your conclusions ignore many of the realities of the comic book market.

 

I do not know if you draw them because you don't understand the market, or you just don't like the realities thereof, but they ignore market realities nonetheless.

 

Not all collectors think or act with logic. My friend that has 60 copies had more. I've managed to buy some from him over the years. Many boardies will remember the 8.0 sc22 I sold years ago that went on to be pressed to a 9.0. Came from this collector. One of my 8.0 af15 (that later pressed to 8.5) came from this collector. But that was more of a favor to me that he sold. He has no desire to sell, but admittedly at current prices he doesn't buy many these days.

 

He is drunkenly wealthy. He likes accumulating and hoarding and has for 40 years.

 

The dealer/semi-collector in cal I've seen his box of raw af15 (he showed me and select others at sdcc a few years ago). He still buys for "retirement".

 

There are many dealers sitting on lots of copies. And there are many collectors also sitting on lots of copies. No urban myth. Just a reality that some know about and that others can't seem to wrap their heads around. Just nature of the beast.

[RockMyAmadeus]

You're asking him for proof he cannot provide. You would have to seek out every collector who owns raw copies of AF 15 in order to validate. A comic like AF 15 rarely trades hands raw, therefore most sales data is going to be for slabbed copies.

 

It's conjecture but I also believe that there are far more raw copies exisiting than people think.

 

I understand that is likely true. However, without proof it is just speculation and not proven valid. Other data that has been provided that suggests otherwise.

 

:shrug: If someone cannot support a claim with data or evidence, then they need to be prepared when people challenge it and ultimately refute legitimacy.

 

I am trying my best not to be rude. Hopefully I am not offending anyone.

 

You're not offending me although based on what I've seen of your posting history, I think you take this stuff way too seriously. It's a comic book message board not a debating class. However, that's neither here nor there.

Data that confirms that most sales of AF 15 are slabbed copies is not proof of how many raw copies are out there still locked up in personal collections. It's only proof of how many slabbed copies have been sold.

 

 

I am passionate, I will give you that. Sometimes it is good, other times not so much. Kinda wired this way though.

 

I am linking market sales to market inventory, I don't think that is a long stretch. However, I understand where your challenge is coming from - I just disagree because I feel it is more than a causal link.

 

On both sides of the argument, it's interesting speculation but that's all it is really and it's fine to disagree.

Data of slabbed sales only proves sales of slabbed copies. It says absolutely nothing about the number of existing raw copies, however many that may be.

 

 

Yup.

[RockMyAmadeus]

Back to the topic of af15, please!

Ok. :shrug:

 

Here is my point of the existance of multiple hoarders:

 

Either these people don't know what they have (unlikely given that they hoarded them - people don't collect specific things that they know nothing about), don't care because they are Scrooge McDuck (moderately likely, but very very very small population) or they truly don't exist in abundance and few select real individuals have been created into an urban legend that drives many of these discussions into even greater levels of speculation (highly likely).

 

Your conclusions ignore many of the realities of the comic book market.

 

I do not know if you draw them because you don't understand the market, or you just don't like the realities thereof, but they ignore market realities nonetheless.

 

Not all collectors think or act with logic. My friend that has 60 copies had more. I've managed to buy some from him over the years. Many boardies will remember the 8.0 sc22 I sold years ago that went on to be pressed to a 9.0. Came from this collector. One of my 8.0 af15 (that later pressed to 8.5) came from this collector. But that was more of a favor to me that he sold. He has no desire to sell, but admittedly at current prices he doesn't buy many these days.

 

He is drunkenly wealthy. He likes accumulating and hoarding and has for 40 years.

 

The dealer/semi-collector in cal I've seen his box of raw af15 (he showed me and select others at sdcc a few years ago). He still buys for "retirement".

 

There are many dealers sitting on lots of copies. And there are many collectors also sitting on lots of copies. No urban myth. Just a reality that some know about and that others can't seem to wrap their heads around. Just nature of the beast.

 

Yup, part deux.

[G.A.tor]

Joe V once told me that jay M of sparkle city had what must have been over 500 copies of af15 in the mid 60s (could have been less, sometimes stories do get embellished or memory fails ) even back then folks "knew".

 

Are there 5k copies? 10k? 20k? Truthfully we will never know. No one will ever know. But does make for some fun speculation and discussion