Total Existing Copies of AF #15 2 2

[RockMyAmadeus]

You're asking him for proof he cannot provide. You would have to seek out every collector who owns raw copies of AF 15 in order to validate. A comic like AF 15 rarely trades hands raw, therefore most sales data is going to be for slabbed copies.

 

It's conjecture but I also believe that there are far more raw copies exisiting than people think.

 

I understand that is likely true. However, without proof it is just speculation and not proven valid. Other data that has been provided that suggests otherwise.

 

:shrug: If someone cannot support a claim with data or evidence, then they need to be prepared when people challenge it and ultimately refute legitimacy.

 

I am trying my best not to be rude. Hopefully I am not offending anyone.

 

You're not offending me although based on what I've seen of your posting history, I think you take this stuff way too seriously. It's a comic book message board not a debating class. However, that's neither here nor there.

Data that confirms that most sales of AF 15 are slabbed copies is not proof of how many raw copies are out there still locked up in personal collections. It's only proof of how many slabbed copies have been sold.

 

 

I am passionate, I will give you that. Sometimes it is good, other times not so much. Kinda wired this way though.

 

I am linking market sales to market inventory, I don't think that is a long stretch. However, I understand where your challenge is coming from - I just disagree because I feel it is more than a causal link.

 

On both sides of the argument, it's interesting speculation but that's all it is really and it's fine to disagree.

Data of slabbed sales only proves sales of slabbed copies. It says absolutely nothing about the number of existing raw copies, however many that may be.

 

 

Yup.

 

I will add this: not all data is hard data; observation and experience also counts. Obviously, they aren't as weighty as actual data, but that doesn't mean they are meaningless, either.

 

Let's consider Roy. Not to kiss Roy's leather-clad posterior, but Roy has done high grade Silver and Gold for years. He knows that market, I have, myself, observed Roy in action over many years now, in multiple venues, over a long period of time. I even helped him at his SDCC booth in 2011, and got a chance to watch him up close. Therefore, his observations about that market are going to carry a lot more weight than those who aren't as connected to it, even if he doesn't provide a stitch of actual data to support his statements.

 

Likewise, if I want to know about Walked Dead Sig Series books, I talk to Branget. I don't think there is anyone who is as keyed into the WD market as Branget. Maybe Pastaroni, but, eh, he's Pastaroni.

 

So, when dealers who have been in this market for a very, very long time say "this is my experience and my observation, and I think X amount of copies exist"...that opinion carries real weight, certainly against other opinions that demonstrate a shortsightedness about the market, like referencing sales of slabbed copies as a valid means of extrapolating total copies extant.

 

That may not sit very well with some, but disillusionment is a good thing: it means you don't believe in illusions anymore.

 

[RockMyAmadeus]

Even the census is suspect; it can only ever tell us the upper limit of slabbed copies; it's likely that no single book with a population on the census over 100 exactly represents the number of copies subbed.

 

With resubs, those numbers get skewed really fast.

 

Hell, I've got 40 or so labels sitting around that I have no intention of ever turning in. Those books will always be misrepresented on the census.

 

[RockMyAmadeus]

I will say with abolsute certainly there are not thousands of AF 15's laying around that have not yet been unearthed yet by collectors or dealers. Maybe at best 1k and I am being generous with that guess.

 

That is unrealistic and I won't hear such abolsute non-sense.

 

AF 15 is not a rare book, but they don't grow on trees either.

 

Unless some kind of warehouse unearths a couple thousand copies I won't hold my breath the CGC census will be x10 anytime soon.

 

I agree. Abolsute non-sense is the worst kind of all, and of that I am abolsutely certain.

 

But...what do you mean by "unearthed"? Do you mean copies owned by people who don't know what they have...? If so, I agree with your numbers.

 

But do you mean copies owned by people who do?

 

Then, I'd have to disagree.

[BarryAllen]

RMA - this is ridiculous. You continually talk around a subject then readdress it only when it suits you. You only present your opinion as reasoning and dismiss other's whenever convenient. You do not provide any factual data but call to question anything anyone else submits as rubbish and dismiss it immediately.

 

You are not having a discussion, you simply ignore anything I say and then (whether you admit it or not) respond with arrogance with statements like "you are missing the point," "your point is silly" and so on. Then when someone calls you out on it you go on the defensive and play the "bigger person card."

 

You are honestly not worth the time because you do not care about anyone's opinion but your own or those whose support your ridiculous statements you want people to accept as fact just because you say them.

 

People do not give a about what you think. They care about facts and you never present them - you are just full of conjecture.

 

Seriously, you are a waste of band width on here.

 

 

 

 

FYI - I am sure you will dissect this post with your typical BS and waste pages of threads. Do whatever you want, I have wasted enough of my life on you at this point.

[Topnotchman]

Anyone who believes that most of the copies extant have been slabbed already is hitting the Koolaid pretty hard..... or maybe naïve. I know lots and lots of vintage collectors who own no slabs and will never pack up a 5000 dollar comic and mail it to someone to encapsulate..... not going to happen.... and the more valuable it becomes.... even less likely. GOD BLESS...

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus) (thumbs u

 

....there's fifty copies of AF 15 just in THIS town.......one town out of thousands of towns ....

 

This is spot on folks.

 

 

[rjpb]

There are 17,647 extant copies, 384 of which are sitting in various attics, basements, barns and storage units either forgotten about or placed there by someone now deceased. In the last 12 months 3 copies were destroyed by fire and four copies thrown out and now in a landfill, rapidly deteriorating. Another 22 copies were severely damaged by flooding, but technically still exist.

 

 

-The Watcher

 

 

As of 11:03 PST, there are now only 17,646 copies, as one one was shredded in a domestic argument resulting from a marital infidelity.

Edited March 9, 2015 by rjpb

[RockMyAmadeus]

 

My bet is on Arizona as the sleeper state - huge retirement community and good conditions for preservation.

 

(thumbs u

 

I write, currently, from the Grand Canyon state, where, within a month, temperatures will top 100....and will stay that way from May until November.

 

 

What part of "extreme heat" = good conditions for preservation?

 

Cool (but not too cold.) Dry (but not too dry.) Consistent temperatures (no wild swings either way.)

 

Those are the ideal conditions for preserving paper.

[RockMyAmadeus]

RMA - this is ridiculous. You continually talk around a subject then readdress it only when it suits you. You only present your opinion as reasoning and dismiss other's whenever convenient. You do not provide any factual data but call to question anything anyone else submits as rubbish and dismiss it immediately.

 

You are not having a discussion, you simply ignore anything I say and then (whether you admit it or not) respond with arrogance with statements like "you are missing the point," "your point is silly" and so on. Then when someone calls you out on it you go on the defensive and play the "bigger person card."

 

You are honestly not worth the time because you do not care about anyone's opinion but your own or those whose support your ridiculous statements you want people to accept as fact just because you say them.

 

People do not give a about what you think. They care about facts and you never present them - you are just full of conjecture.

 

Seriously, you are a waste of band width on here.

 

 

 

 

FYI - I am sure you will dissect this post with your typical BS and waste pages of threads. Do whatever you want, I have wasted enough of my life on you at this point.

 

If you cannot have a discussion without making it personal, as you have done here, it is definitely best if you find other people with which to interact. Obviously, I don't agree with any of your analysis, either of AF #15, or your opinions about me. I have addressed your points head-on, with much fact and sound reason. You have not presented a single example of where you believe I have done the things you've said; you've only made vague, impressive sounding accusations, or just made things up out of whole cloth (example: "your point is silly", which I never said.) Where factual data has been called for, I have provided it, in great detail (as many others here can attest), so accusations like that ring fairly hollow.

 

Others have echoed...very politely, I might add, considering how substantially naive and ill-informed your arguments have been...what I have said. You can take it or leave it, but once you start making it personal, you have, sadly, crossed a line where I will no longer go. I will not insult you, as you have done me, because, as I said before, nothing is to be gained from it.

 

As far as "people" not giving a *spoon* about what I think...as have dozens, if not hundreds before you, I will tell you the same thing: you don't speak for anyone but yourself. It is presumptuous...and, if I'm being frankly honest, pretty indicative...to imagine you speak for others. You don't. I speak for me, you speak for you, and everyone else speaks for themselves. To suggest that you know what "people" think is a pretty clearcut example of the behavior of which you accuse me.

 

Isn't that ever the case...?

 

It is a truism that those who cannot discuss the merits, discuss the people. That most likely remains true here as well. So, I bid you adieu, with no ill-will on my part, and wish you the best of luck in your future endeavors on the board.

 

 

 

[NewWorldOrder]

Anyone who believes that most of the copies extant have been slabbed already is hitting the Koolaid pretty hard..... or maybe naïve. I know lots and lots of vintage collectors who own no slabs and will never pack up a 5000 dollar comic and mail it to someone to encapsulate..... not going to happen.... and the more valuable it becomes.... even less likely. GOD BLESS...

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus) (thumbs u

 

....there's fifty copies of AF 15 just in THIS town.......one town out of thousands of towns ....

 

This is spot on folks.

 

 

I agree with everything you said except if someone really believe there are thousands of raw AF 15's left out in collectors collections I wont be able to take that person seriously ever again. I dont care how much experience they have in the hobby.

 

I firmly believe yes there are 100's left ungraded, but not 1000's.

Edited March 9, 2015 by SPECTRE_#SOT

[NewWorldOrder]

I will say with abolsute certainly there are not thousands of AF 15's laying around that have not yet been unearthed yet by collectors or dealers. Maybe at best 1k and I am being generous with that guess.

 

That is unrealistic and I won't hear such abolsute non-sense.

 

AF 15 is not a rare book, but they don't grow on trees either.

 

Unless some kind of warehouse unearths a couple thousand copies I won't hold my breath the CGC census will be x10 anytime soon.

 

I agree. Abolsute non-sense is the worst kind of all, and of that I am abolsutely certain.

 

But...what do you mean by "unearthed"? Do you mean copies owned by people who don't know what they have...? If so, I agree with your numbers.

 

But do you mean copies owned by people who do?

 

Then, I'd have to disagree.

 

Then I guess you are half agreeing with me.

 

There are not thousands of Raw copies left ungraded. I travel all around the country for shows and I don't think any national dealer would agree with that school of thought.

 

Could there be? Sure, but my Eagles could also win the Superbowl one year. I wouldn't hold my breath on either anytime soon.

[NewWorldOrder]

I know a guy that knows a guy and he knows a guy that his brother-in-law's friends mother said that her husband hoards AF 15's. She said he has 50 raw copies.

 

Of course they are all HG and obviously unrestored.

 

So you know there must a couple hundred guys just like him.

 

So when you baby boomers start dying (heck I think that starts now since my parents are now in their 60's) then the market on AF 15 is going to collapse cause you all will start dying off and the market won't able to take all the intake of these 1000's of copies of AF 15's coming to the market CGC or still raw.

 

 

 

It will be Death and Return of Superman all over again!

 

The hobby is doomed!

 

 

SELL NOW or CRY LATER!

 

On a serious not I actually believe people might be shocked on how many "unearthed" AF 15's (yes RMA unearthed meaning AF 15's that the person doesn't collect or know what they just found) are actually thrown out per year. I actually know of one that I had to save via a text picture from my friend who in this case really did know a guy that was working in an old lady's house. She had a box of comics, which were mid-grade Neal Adams art issues and the only Silver-age book was a 2.0 cover almost detached AF 15. If my friend didn't get that picture from his friend and texted it to me across the country that AF 15 was going to be recycled. True story.

 

Edited March 9, 2015 by SPECTRE_#SOT

[NewWorldOrder]

Detention is over I am finally leaving this thread to regain my sanity!

 

Hey Hey Hey hey, don't you forget about AF 15.......Don't don't don't you....

 

Edited March 9, 2015 by SPECTRE_#SOT

[Jeffro.]

RMA - this is ridiculous. You continually talk around a subject then readdress it only when it suits you. You only present your opinion as reasoning and dismiss other's whenever convenient. You do not provide any factual data but call to question anything anyone else submits as rubbish and dismiss it immediately.

 

You are not having a discussion, you simply ignore anything I say and then (whether you admit it or not) respond with arrogance with statements like "you are missing the point," "your point is silly" and so on. Then when someone calls you out on it you go on the defensive and play the "bigger person card."

 

You are honestly not worth the time because you do not care about anyone's opinion but your own or those whose support your ridiculous statements you want people to accept as fact just because you say them.

 

People do not give a about what you think. They care about facts and you never present them - you are just full of conjecture.

 

Seriously, you are a waste of band width on here.

 

 

 

 

FYI - I am sure you will dissect this post with your typical BS and waste pages of threads. Do whatever you want, I have wasted enough of my life on you at this point.

 

Conjecture and opinion. Add bias for the win!

[Gatsby77]

For those of you who doubt that there are thousands of raw AF 15s out there, what % of Hulk 181s do you believe are still raw?

 

May seem like a specious comparison but it's not. Because the logic I keep reading here seems to boil down to "no one would keep such a valuable book as AF 15 unslabbed." And my (informed) opinion is that's hogwash.

 

So seriously -- do you folks believe that more than 20% of Hulk 181s are slabbed? 50%? 80%?

 

Yes -- most dealers would likely slab an AF 15 before selling it. But I submit that most collectors would not.

 

Slabbing is still a very small sliver of the market, regardless of whether the books are modern, silver age or golden age. And yes -- that pertains to books worth $1k (or $5K)+ as well.

[roulette44]

What we lack in some areas, we make up for in passion and debating skills on these boards, that's for sure!!

 

I think there have been good assertions made on both sides (and yes, opinion counts for those that have the requisite experiences.....they're life in some ways equals the data point, and empirical data to boot).

 

I think it was my friend Jimbo that asserted 1500 to 8000 raw copies out there. I thought this was a resonable assertion too because

 

1) it's a wide range (anyone who says the answer is between x and x+10 copies is kidding themselves on precision)

 

2) it accounts for the hoarders, people who don't know what they have, and (seemingly to me) to the group of raw collectors that don't want to slab.

 

I started by thinking the number or raws was outnumbered already by the number of slabbed. Listening to this thread, I am now more leaning to the 1-2x the number of slabbed. So 5,000 or so seems like a reasonable point estimate and happens to be near the midpoint of that above range.

 

Of course my whole post here (like most others here) is mainly conjecture. I would say, though, that the change in the census data year in and year out (looking forward too) should increase our knowledge about the underlying number. I know some don't believe that most of the hobby is slab aware, but for the money that this book is worth, I believe it does!

 

How many raw mantle rookies are out there at this point? That ever been discussed to which someone can fill us in here?

[G.A.tor]

I will say with abolsute certainly there are not thousands of AF 15's laying around that have not yet been unearthed yet by collectors or dealers. Maybe at best 1k and I am being generous with that guess.

 

That is unrealistic and I won't hear such abolsute non-sense.

 

AF 15 is not a rare book, but they don't grow on trees either.

 

Unless some kind of warehouse unearths a couple thousand copies I won't hold my breath the CGC census will be x10 anytime soon.

 

I agree. Abolsute non-sense is the worst kind of all, and of that I am abolsutely certain.

 

But...what do you mean by "unearthed"? Do you mean copies owned by people who don't know what they have...? If so, I agree with your numbers.

 

But do you mean copies owned by people who do?

 

Then, I'd have to disagree.

 

Then I guess you are half agreeing with me.

 

There are not thousands of Raw copies left ungraded. I travel all around the country for shows and I don't think any national dealer would agree with that school of thought.

 

Could there be? Sure, but my Eagles could also win the Superbowl one year. I wouldn't hold my breath on either anytime soon.

 

Would be interesting to take a poll of all major dealers and their thoughts. I would say with near certainty there are thousands (as in more than one thousand ) of ungraded af15s out there in folks collections and with equal certainty (having also traveled the country and set up at major shows for last 10 years) would think the #1 seller of vintage comics in the world, metro , has sold near that many themselves (maybe Vincent will chime in).

 

Heck, I see many many every show. For someone to think there are only hundreds of ungraded af15 in existence seems naive to me, based on what I've seen.... But again, I suspect we can't really ever know.

 

Just look at major dealers walls at shows, or online inventory. They continue to be raw heavy (metro, dale Roberts, Harley Yee, Ritter, bedrock, graham crackers , etc). Sure more valuable books will get slabbed , but to think that more than 60% of all existing af15s have been slabbed doesn't pass the sight or experience or logic test (imo)

[jimjum12]

Younger collectors....and I don't mean inexperienced.... age 40 or less, don't remember the days when an AF 15 in VG or better could be had at less than 50 bucks from several mail order dealers across the country. In those days, EVERYONE was collecting ASM and all of them were doing the whole run. These are folks who got them for 30 bucks.... heck, I know a guy who got his in the late 60's for 5 cents at a used book type shop. He also got ASM 1 and Hulk 1 that way.They all still have them and none of these guys are wealthy.... so to expect them to pay several hundred dollars to put their favorite comic in a slab....not less, sending it off to people they don't even know for a couple months, is just not what the folks I know deem to be necessary..... or even affordable for some of them. This is not a pot shot at CGC..... their service is worthwhile....it just represents that part of the market that is tech savvy, at least moderately funded, and often part of the buy/sell crowd. That part of the market is just the tip of the iceberg. GOD BLESS...

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus) (thumbs u

[BarryAllen]

Younger collectors....and I don't mean inexperienced.... age 40 or less, don't remember the days when an AF 15 in VG or better could be had at less than 50 bucks from several mail order dealers across the country. In those days, EVERYONE was collecting ASM and all of them were doing the whole run. These are folks who got them for 30 bucks.... heck, I know a guy who got his in the late 60's for 5 cents at a used book type shop. He also got ASM 1 and Hulk 1 that way.They all still have them and none of these guys are wealthy.... so to expect them to pay several hundred dollars to put their favorite comic in a slab....not less, sending it off to people they don't even know for a couple months, is just not what the folks I know deem to be necessary..... or even affordable for some of them. This is not a pot shot at CGC..... their service is worthwhile....it just represents that part of the market that is tech savvy, at least moderately funded, and often part of the buy/sell crowd. That part of the market is just the tip of the iceberg. GOD BLESS...

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus) (thumbs u

 

This is good push, I hadn't thought of the slabbing fees. Certainly only worth it if you are going to sell if you don't have the ready available funds (which is true for many people).

 

FYI - I seriously missed out on this book...

[jimjum12]

I've never owned one either. At the time when I could have afforded one, I passed because, other than the cover, I didn't think it was very well done I'm with the camp that doesn't see it getting any cheaper....but it's due for a little leveling off.....but that's another topic. I still remember the day my pal Timmy got his.....we were both still in Junior High and had our own paper routes. About once a year a Comic Show would come through town and we'd each have a little warchest built up. Timmy showed it to me and asked my opinion, as it was priced at 30 bucks, which was PRICEY in the mid 70's. I said "DUDE, it's the first Spidey......"....and he got it. It was a VG..... which was about as nice as you'd find for THAT book. For comparison, I grabbed a near mint FF 5 for 20 bucks.....one of the last few I needed. The nice grade was secondary.....in fact I would have preferred a cheaper mid grade.... but FF 5's didn't turn up as often, so I took it. GOD BLESS...

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus) (thumbs u

 

....I lost touch with Timmy over the years when he moved away.

[roulette44]

For comparison, I grabbed a near mint FF 5 for 20 bucks.....

 

AWESOME!!