AF 15 Sales - Up, Down or Sideways?

[Kevin76]

At the rate thing are going, in a few years, one would need 10k for a nice presenting 2.0 1.0 Coverless

 

Fixed it for ya. :thumbsup:

 

Fixed that for you too!

 

 

[Dark Knight]

At the rate thing are going, in a few years, one would need 10k for a nice presenting 2.0 1.0 Coverlessincomplete copy

 

Fixed it for ya. :thumbsup:

 

Fixed that for you too!

 

 

Fixed that for both of you

[Silver]

Here's how I look at books like AF 15, Hulk 1 ect...

 

In 20-25+ years from now or whenever I decide to retire and I still have this book, is it still going to be the same price as when I bought? The answer is no. When you are 70 years old, you'll look back and say "you know, 30 years ago I could have bought that book for $XX, XXXX, Now look at it!!!!, I should have bought it"

 

If we are looking at 20-25+ years from now, I'm curious to see if AF15 and Hulk #1 are still going to hold the top two spots. Would Spidey or Hulk still maintain their level of popularity or would they be overtaken by other heroes like Iron Man or the Avengers for example? 30 years ago, Fantastic Four #1 was on top of the Silver Age Marvel list.

 

The movies are definitely changing popularity of characters.

[Kevin76]

Here's how I look at books like AF 15, Hulk 1 ect...

 

In 20-25+ years from now or whenever I decide to retire and I still have this book, is it still going to be the same price as when I bought? The answer is no. When you are 70 years old, you'll look back and say "you know, 30 years ago I could have bought that book for $XX, XXXX, Now look at it!!!!, I should have bought it"

 

If we are looking at 20-25+ years from now, I'm curious to see if AF15 and Hulk #1 are still going to hold the top two spots. Would Spidey or Hulk still maintain their level of popularity or would they be overtaken by other heroes like Iron Man or the Avengers for example? 30 years ago, Fantastic Four #1 was on top of the Silver Age Marvel list.

 

The movies are definitely changing popularity of characters.

 

you don't say...

[BarryAllen]

Here's how I look at books like AF 15, Hulk 1 ect...

 

In 20-25+ years from now or whenever I decide to retire and I still have this book, is it still going to be the same price as when I bought? The answer is no. When you are 70 years old, you'll look back and say "you know, 30 years ago I could have bought that book for $XX, XXXX, Now look at it!!!!, I should have bought it"

 

If we are looking at 20-25+ years from now, I'm curious to see if AF15 and Hulk #1 are still going to hold the top two spots. Would Spidey or Hulk still maintain their level of popularity or would they be overtaken by other heroes like Iron Man or the Avengers for example? 30 years ago, Fantastic Four #1 was on top of the Silver Age Marvel list.

 

The movies are definitely changing popularity of characters.

 

you don't say...

 

 

what movies?

[jimjum12]

Here's how I look at books like AF 15, Hulk 1 ect...

 

In 20-25+ years from now or whenever I decide to retire and I still have this book, is it still going to be the same price as when I bought? The answer is no. When you are 70 years old, you'll look back and say "you know, 30 years ago I could have bought that book for $XX, XXXX, Now look at it!!!!, I should have bought it"

 

If we are looking at 20-25+ years from now, I'm curious to see if AF15 and Hulk #1 are still going to hold the top two spots. Would Spidey or Hulk still maintain their level of popularity or would they be overtaken by other heroes like Iron Man or the Avengers for example? 30 years ago, Fantastic Four #1 was on top of the Silver Age Marvel list.

 

The movies are definitely changing popularity of characters.

 

you don't say...

 

 

what movies?

 

[BarryAllen]

Here's how I look at books like AF 15, Hulk 1 ect...

 

In 20-25+ years from now or whenever I decide to retire and I still have this book, is it still going to be the same price as when I bought? The answer is no. When you are 70 years old, you'll look back and say "you know, 30 years ago I could have bought that book for $XX, XXXX, Now look at it!!!!, I should have bought it"

 

If we are looking at 20-25+ years from now, I'm curious to see if AF15 and Hulk #1 are still going to hold the top two spots. Would Spidey or Hulk still maintain their level of popularity or would they be overtaken by other heroes like Iron Man or the Avengers for example? 30 years ago, Fantastic Four #1 was on top of the Silver Age Marvel list.

 

The movies are definitely changing popularity of characters.

 

you don't say...

 

 

what movies?

 

 

:shrug:

[jimjum12]

Here's how I look at books like AF 15, Hulk 1 ect...

 

In 20-25+ years from now or whenever I decide to retire and I still have this book, is it still going to be the same price as when I bought? The answer is no. When you are 70 years old, you'll look back and say "you know, 30 years ago I could have bought that book for $XX, XXXX, Now look at it!!!!, I should have bought it"

 

If we are looking at 20-25+ years from now, I'm curious to see if AF15 and Hulk #1 are still going to hold the top two spots. Would Spidey or Hulk still maintain their level of popularity or would they be overtaken by other heroes like Iron Man or the Avengers for example? 30 years ago, Fantastic Four #1 was on top of the Silver Age Marvel list.

 

The movies are definitely changing popularity of characters.

 

you don't say...

 

 

what movies?

 

 

:shrug:

 

[BarryAllen]

Here's how I look at books like AF 15, Hulk 1 ect...

 

In 20-25+ years from now or whenever I decide to retire and I still have this book, is it still going to be the same price as when I bought? The answer is no. When you are 70 years old, you'll look back and say "you know, 30 years ago I could have bought that book for $XX, XXXX, Now look at it!!!!, I should have bought it"

 

If we are looking at 20-25+ years from now, I'm curious to see if AF15 and Hulk #1 are still going to hold the top two spots. Would Spidey or Hulk still maintain their level of popularity or would they be overtaken by other heroes like Iron Man or the Avengers for example? 30 years ago, Fantastic Four #1 was on top of the Silver Age Marvel list.

 

The movies are definitely changing popularity of characters.

 

you don't say...

 

 

what movies?

 

 

:shrug:

 

 

[markseifert]

I believe lower grades will continue to moderately increase while the "deep " end of the pool will remain somewhat stagnant (unless the copy is upgradable)...I divested myself of all my high grade copies and decided to focus on 2.0 to 4.5....easier to buy and much easier to sell in the shallow end of the pool...

just my opinion, mileage will vary

 

Yep.

 

This kind of thing is going to be a big topic of conversation over the next few years. And AF 15 is certainly not the only example.

 

A bunch of interesting implications, even beyond the 6-figures-in-high-grade SA books.

[namisgr]

As far as I know, an AF15 in 6.5 is still increasing in value. I bought one in 2013 and sold it less than 18 months later for 40% more.

[BarryAllen]

I believe lower grades will continue to moderately increase while the "deep " end of the pool will remain somewhat stagnant (unless the copy is upgradable)...I divested myself of all my high grade copies and decided to focus on 2.0 to 4.5....easier to buy and much easier to sell in the shallow end of the pool...

just my opinion, mileage will vary

 

Yep.

 

This kind of thing is going to be a big topic of conversation over the next few years. And AF 15 is certainly not the only example.

 

A bunch of interesting implications, even beyond the 6-figures-in-high-grade SA books.

 

The question is: what is the price point where the growth curve starts to flatten out on the SA Mega Keys?

 

$5k? - certainly higher than this given low-grade sales

$10k?

$20k?

$30k?

More?

[markseifert]

The question is: what is the price point where the growth curve starts to flatten out on the SA Mega Keys?

 

Raw dollar amount is not the controlling factor here. Go look at at a bunch of gpa data for long-established SA and BA keys with a large census population, compare high-grade curves over the past decade to mid/low grade curves. (and define that however you like)

 

It does not apply universally, and does not apply to more recently-resurgent keys for obvious reasons. (and doesn't apply to "unique" nosebleed-grade stuff)

 

But, say, Av 4 is another pretty good example.

 

And a clue to what's happening is that there are plenty of 1968-1974 examples, which shows you it's (mostly) not about price point.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[BarryAllen]

The question is: what is the price point where the growth curve starts to flatten out on the SA Mega Keys?

 

Raw dollar amount is not the controlling factor here. Go look at at a bunch of gpa data for long-established SA and BA keys with a large census population, compare high-grade curves over the past decade to mid/low grade curves. (and define that however you like)

 

It does not apply universally, and does not apply to more recently-resurgent keys for obvious reasons. (and doesn't apply to "unique" nosebleed-grade stuff)

 

But, say, Av 4 is another pretty good example.

 

And a clue to what's happening is that there are plenty of 1968-1974 examples, which shows you it's (mostly) not about price point.

 

 

 

Of course money matters. I am sure with enough data, it would be easy enough to show that purchase frequency and % growth slows as prices increase (basic economics). There will be outliers for extreme examples (super high grade and/or super rare), but in general it will hold true.

 

My question was mostly rhetorical, but in general the number of people who can afford a $10k book is likely very small compared to those who can avoid a $5k book, and so on. I am sure some of our larger dealers on the boards could give us some quick numbers and thresholds.

 

So yeah, raw dollar amount definitely matters. How much something costs relative to the percentage of the collecting population that can afford it, directly impacts sales frequency.

 

:shrug:

[markseifert]

So yeah, raw dollar amount definitely matters.

 

You'd be harder pressed to make that case than you think.

 

I haven't looked at all the data either but in fact I'll say that I don't think it's true.

 

Example: AF 15, Avengers 4, Cap 100.

 

In 9.2:

AF 15 tops out at 190k

Av4 tops out at about $7k

Cap 100 tops out at $800

 

Over the past 5 years, each of those books show greater percentage gains in 4.0 - 6.0 than 8.5 - 9.2.

 

How much something costs relative to the percentage of the collecting population that can afford it, directly impacts sales frequency.

 

Sure, but that doesn't necessarily affect growth. Go look at Rob L's chart for hobby records over this same period. The curve practically goes vertical. Historically, conventional wisdom in the hobby was that high grade would always grow at a faster rate than low grade (and that high grade = investment grade). Price spreads between low grade and high grade increased significantly 1985-2000ish.

 

Your comment about outliers is closer to the point, though -- yep, uniqueness matters, despite price point.

 

****

 

All I'm really saying is that the data about high grade Marvel keys vs mid/low grade Marvel keys is in direct opposition to the conventional wisdom of 1985-2000.

 

[edit -- as an aside, you could say 1965-2000, really. Increasing price spreads is the factor that drove the need for increasingly precise grade nomenclature. good-fine-mint became VERY good-fine-etc became vg/f became vg+ became the ten point scale.]

 

 

[Ghost Rider]

When I bought my CGC 1.5 AF 15 for $3500. I took a bit of flack here. I was crazy, nuts, etc. Well all I can say is look at it's value now. It is a decent re sub candidate as well. I could see the book being a 2.0 I'm very happy with my purchase.

[thirdgreenham]

[CBT]

When I bought my CGC 1.5 AF 15 for $3500. I took a bit of flack here. I was crazy, nuts, etc. Well all I can say is look at it's value now. It is a decent re sub candidate as well. I could see the book being a 2.0 I'm very happy with my purchase.

 

Since then how many of the years in between included 0% interest rates, and record setting money creation (printing out of thin air). Like the stock market "rise" since it bottomed in 08/09, most assets have seen a massive boost in 'valuations' due to so much free money floating around.

 

If interest rates go to the historical normal of 5-8%, or worse, higher, or if all the debt creation final grinds the' economy' to a halt, where does that put everybodies mortgages, credit cards rates, lines of credits, student loans, etc, etc? What impact would that have on the market for luxury goods and collectibles? If 20% of the AF15 owners came under financial duress and all need to raise capital, and try to sell at the same time, what effect does that have?

 

Lots of hypothetical questions, but just trying to make a point about what people should consider when buying or selling any high priced asset that involves consolidating a lot of eggs into one basket.

 

If you can afford to buy AF15 and not need to sell it for 20 years no matter what, play on. But I think that to assume the price will continue to stay the same or rise, by comparing it to the time period of the single largest money printing (debt creation) period in human history, and the lowest interest rate period in modern civilization history, well, "danger will robinson, danger".

[Jordysnordy]

As far as I know, an AF15 in 6.5 is still increasing in value. I bought one in 2013 and sold it less than 18 months later for 40% more.

 

And for now, this does seem to be the norm with this book.

Towards the end of 2014, I bought a 2nd AF 15 (in low grade) not to keep long term, but to flip in the near future, but I am seriously considering keeping it now.

Strictly looking at the GPA, it has gone up 14% in less than the 6 months that I owned it.

My higher grade copy, since 2014, has gone up 27%.

I don't know if this growth can be sustained but I am certainly making more (on paper anyways) than I could in a more traditional way of investing.

[markseifert]

But I think that to assume the price will continue to stay the same or rise, by comparing it to the time period of the single largest money printing (debt creation) period in human history, and the lowest interest rate period in modern civilization history, well, "danger will robinson, danger".

 

This is true, and it's a point well worth making, but the reason people will ignore you is that from 1962-present they'd have been better off ignoring you.

 

But at some point, they won't be better off ignoring you.