AF 15 Sales - Up, Down or Sideways?

[CBT]

But I think that to assume the price will continue to stay the same or rise, by comparing it to the time period of the single largest money printing (debt creation) period in human history, and the lowest interest rate period in modern civilization history, well, "danger will robinson, danger".

 

This is true, and it's a point well worth making, but the reason people will ignore you is that from 1962-present they'd have been better off ignoring you.

 

But at some point, they won't be better off ignoring you.

 

A very valid point, and the reason why when it comes it will seem like it came from nowhere to most people.

 

The US won the cold war because they out spent Russia, and forced them to go bankrupt trying to keep up. It took a decade plus for Russia to recover and did so on the back of natural resources and a physical economy. But, the US didnt really win, they just lasted longer on the backs of derivatives, futures, and all sorts of economic magical 'instruments' that let the music keep going.

 

In 2008 the US/Western world's music stopped, and it almost all came down USSR collapse style. They managed to force the music to keep playing, by throwing the rule book out the window and going full steam ahead with money(debt) printing from thin air (QE to infinity, and beyond). But, you can't solve a debt problem by creating more debt, in 2008 our Titanic hit it's iceburg, getting the band to keep playing and re-arranging deck chairs may make everyone feel good, but the ship is still going to go down. The other shoe will eventually fall, and it's already going to be 10x worse than if they let it fall in 2008. Only a matter of time.

 

------

 

Personally, I dont think it really matters in terms of comics, because there will be so soooo many worse problems at that point.

 

But anyone buying a book that's gone up 40% in 2 years, or whatever, expecting it to be a liquid asset they can sell at any time for profit, is probably in for a rude awakening. As long as you are debt free, and job safe, well, gett'er done. Anyone with AF15 and an equivalent amount of debt.....sell and get out of debt. Anyone looking to buy, if you are reaching, dont. If its an easy buy without debt, again, giv'er and hold long term.

[namisgr]

It must have felt good to get that viewpoint off your chest, but the GPA data indicate the comic has been rising in price with essentially a linear long-term trendline at least as far back as 2004. Those of us who remember what happened to the prices of SA keys with the advent of CGC grading know this comic began its assent even earlier. The notion that the price rise is tied to federal monetary policy and quantitative easing is not supported by the actual sales data.

 

 

The graph is from gpanalysis.com, a database subscription service that I highly recommend for the buying and selling of slabbed comics.

 

I agree with the sentiment that past performance is not a guarantee of future returns.

[thunsicker]

As far as I know, an AF15 in 6.5 is still increasing in value. I bought one in 2013 and sold it less than 18 months later for 40% more.

 

And for now, this does seem to be the norm with this book.

Towards the end of 2014, I bought a 2nd AF 15 (in low grade) not to keep long term, but to flip in the near future, but I am seriously considering keeping it now.

Strictly looking at the GPA, it has gone up 14% in less than the 6 months that I owned it.

My higher grade copy, since 2014, has gone up 27%.

I don't know if this growth can be sustained but I am certainly making more (on paper anyways) than I could in a more traditional way of investing.

 

I can absolutely assure you that 27% year on year increase cannot continue. That's doubling every 3 years. Or in 20 years worth approximately 250 times as much. So the 6.0 that is listed at 32k now would be an 8 million dollar book at that rate. Not going to happen.

[Dark Knight]

I think smaller gains in a year to year basis is more realistic in the long run and even some plateuing in prices every now and then. I just don't see this book losing any value IMO

[ChasingKingKirby]

As far as I know, an AF15 in 6.5 is still increasing in value. I bought one in 2013 and sold it less than 18 months later for 40% more.

 

And for now, this does seem to be the norm with this book.

Towards the end of 2014, I bought a 2nd AF 15 (in low grade) not to keep long term, but to flip in the near future, but I am seriously considering keeping it now.

Strictly looking at the GPA, it has gone up 14% in less than the 6 months that I owned it.

My higher grade copy, since 2014, has gone up 27%.

I don't know if this growth can be sustained but I am certainly making more (on paper anyways) than I could in a more traditional way of investing.

 

I can absolutely assure you that 27% year on year increase cannot continue. That's doubling every 3 years. Or in 20 years worth approximately 250 times as much. So the 6.0 that is listed at 32k now would be an 8 million dollar book at that rate. Not going to happen.

 

I think that's a safe bet.

[Jordysnordy]

As far as I know, an AF15 in 6.5 is still increasing in value. I bought one in 2013 and sold it less than 18 months later for 40% more.

 

And for now, this does seem to be the norm with this book.

Towards the end of 2014, I bought a 2nd AF 15 (in low grade) not to keep long term, but to flip in the near future, but I am seriously considering keeping it now.

Strictly looking at the GPA, it has gone up 14% in less than the 6 months that I owned it.

My higher grade copy, since 2014, has gone up 27%.

I don't know if this growth can be sustained but I am certainly making more (on paper anyways) than I could in a more traditional way of investing.

 

I can absolutely assure you that 27% year on year increase cannot continue. That's doubling every 3 years. Or in 20 years worth approximately 250 times as much. So the 6.0 that is listed at 32k now would be an 8 million dollar book at that rate. Not going to happen.

 

That obviously goes without saying.

27% a year isn't realistic.

I think it's safe to assume 5-10% growth per year for this book.

[showcase22gr1959]

As low grades continues to rise, it will push mid-grades to high grades too. Such as, mid-grades to high grades rise, will push low grades too.

[CBT]

It must have felt good to get that viewpoint off your chest, but the GPA data indicate the comic has been rising in price with essentially a linear long-term trendline at least as far back as 2004. Those of us who remember what happened to the prices of SA keys with the advent of CGC grading know this comic began its assent even earlier. The notion that the price rise is tied to federal monetary policy and quantitative easing is not supported by the actual sales data.

 

 

The graph is from gpanalysis.com, a database subscription service that I highly recommend for the buying and selling of slabbed comics.

 

I agree with the sentiment that past performance is not a guarantee of future returns.

 

1.) Stating facts neither makes me feel good, nor bad, and I have been stating the same perspective for a long long time, in many different markets, not just comics. 2003 was when I first started ranting about the housing bubble and the debt problem. 06 & 08 were foreseeable for many years for those paying attention.

 

2.) Those of "us" who remember includes me, I first came to these boards around 03/04 as a lurker and was vehemently anti-3rd party grading and the assoicated "value added" fake rarity price bumps it produces. I signed up for the boards after finally caving in and buying a slabbed book...8 years later.

 

3.) GPA has many flaws, and is a trailing indicator, not a leading indicator, and certainly should be far less of a market maker than many on here use it as.....but that's not really what this thread is about

 

4.) All price rises, in all assets, and all markets, is because of federal monetary policy and quantitative easing. (and its not actually federal, its called the federal reserve, but its privately owned).

Everything possible is done to keep money printing (debt creation) from spiking the price of everyday goods, and to appear as "inflation" to the masses. But, the Trillions of dollars they have created since the Depression of 2008 have to go somewhere. The where is into the markets, commodities, bonds etc. It artificially inflates the price of everything, and the domino effects (mostly through free lending, aka 0% interest rates) is felt in absolutely EVERYTHING.

 

5.) AF15 has not had a straight line rise in price, it's spiked significantly in the last half-decade, and that rate of increase has been accelerating.

 

6.) I am not telling anyone to sell their books, but what I did actually say, is very relevant.

Namely:

-Don't use the price action during the lowest interest rate/highest monetary expansion period in human history as a guideline for future price movement.

-Don't buy a book as expensive as AF15 if you could ever envision a scenario where you would be forced to sell it to raise capital, or if debt is involved in your purchase. Both are a road to ruin

 

now beyond that, in principle, separate from any specific book, or comics in general:

-When any asset has appreciated so quickly, or when many many people are making the same "move/play", it's a good time to be selling and doing the opposite.

 

 

[Spiderphill]

It must have felt good to get that viewpoint off your chest, but the GPA data indicate the comic has been rising in price with essentially a linear long-term trendline at least as far back as 2004. Those of us who remember what happened to the prices of SA keys with the advent of CGC grading know this comic began its assent even earlier. The notion that the price rise is tied to federal monetary policy and quantitative easing is not supported by the actual sales data.

 

 

The graph is from gpanalysis.com, a database subscription service that I highly recommend for the buying and selling of slabbed comics.

 

I agree with the sentiment that past performance is not a guarantee of future returns.

 

1.) Stating facts neither makes me feel good, nor bad, and I have been stating the same perspective for a long long time, in many different markets, not just comics. 2003 was when I first started ranting about the housing bubble and the debt problem. 06 & 08 were foreseeable for many years for those paying attention.

 

2.) Those of "us" who remember includes me, I first came to these boards around 03/04 as a lurker and was vehemently anti-3rd party grading and the assoicated "value added" fake rarity price bumps it produces. I signed up for the boards after finally caving in and buying a slabbed book...8 years later.

 

3.) GPA has many flaws, and is a trailing indicator, not a leading indicator, and certainly should be far less of a market maker than many on here use it as.....but that's not really what this thread is about

 

4.) All price rises, in all assets, and all markets, is because of federal monetary policy and quantitative easing. (and its not actually federal, its called the federal reserve, but its privately owned).

Everything possible is done to keep money printing (debt creation) from spiking the price of everyday goods, and to appear as "inflation" to the masses. But, the Trillions of dollars they have created since the Depression of 2008 have to go somewhere. The where is into the markets, commodities, bonds etc. It artificially inflates the price of everything, and the domino effects (mostly through free lending, aka 0% interest rates) is felt in absolutely EVERYTHING.

 

5.) AF15 has not had a straight line rise in price, it's spiked significantly in the last half-decade, and that rate of increase has been accelerating.

 

6.) I am not telling anyone to sell their books, but what I did actually say, is very relevant.

Namely:

-Don't use the price action during the lowest interest rate/highest monetary expansion period in human history as a guideline for future price movement.

-Don't buy a book as expensive as AF15 if you could ever envision a scenario where you would be forced to sell it to raise capital, or if debt is involved in your purchase. Both are a road to ruin

 

now beyond that, in principle, separate from any specific book, or comics in general:

-When any asset has appreciated so quickly, or when many many people are making the same "move/play", it's a good time to be selling and doing the opposite.

 

So whens the next depression/crash, Nostradamus

[showcase22gr1959]

Super-heroes are worldwide now. With more Super-heroes movies produced, the exposure of Super-heroes has increased tremendously. There are many new folks entering the market and prices are well supported. These "cool" collectibles were only printed once and the increase demand has cause prices to rise. The stagnant prices of AF15 did occur in 2009-2011 and it was a great buying opportunity. It's hard to gauge when will be the peak, but history proves AF15's is a steady growth investment.

[CBT]

So whens the next depression/crash, Nostradamus

 

The 2008 one never ended Falstaff, the money printing is just hiding it by forcing the markets up. It will reassert itself once they are no longer able to hold things up with money printing.

 

But that's not really the point here.

 

It IS the greatest money printing, lowest interest rate, period of time in History. That's not really debatable... people are welcome to think that doesnt have an effect on asset prices, but I absolutely disagree with them in the strongest possible terms.

 

The only other point I made was that anyone buying an expensive asset in this environment, (especially one that has risen a lot in the past few years and has many many people all making the same 'play'), should make sure they arent buying using debt or that they might ever be forced to sell to raise capital (and taking a big loss if the bottom has fallen out).

 

 

 

 

 

[Buzzetta]

Here's how I look at books like AF 15, Hulk 1 ect...

 

In 20-25+ years from now or whenever I decide to retire and I still have this book, is it still going to be the same price as when I bought? The answer is no. When you are 70 years old, you'll look back and say "you know, 30 years ago I could have bought that book for $XX, XXXX, Now look at it!!!!, I should have bought it"

 

If we are looking at 20-25+ years from now, I'm curious to see if AF15 and Hulk #1 are still going to hold the top two spots. Would Spidey or Hulk still maintain their level of popularity or would they be overtaken by other heroes like Iron Man or the Avengers for example? 30 years ago, Fantastic Four #1 was on top of the Silver Age Marvel list.

 

The difference is that Marvel has adopted Spider-man as its corporate symbol and that has held true since the mid to late 80's. Spider-man is Marvel's Mickey Mouse.

[markseifert]

If we are looking at 20-25+ years from now, I'm curious to see if AF15 and Hulk #1 are still going to hold the top two spots. Would Spidey or Hulk still maintain their level of popularity or would they be overtaken by other heroes like Iron Man or the Avengers for example? 30 years ago, Fantastic Four #1 was on top of the Silver Age Marvel list.

 

The difference is that Marvel has adopted Spider-man as its corporate symbol and that has held true since the mid to late 80's. Spider-man is Marvel's Mickey Mouse.

 

Escaflown4 is correct here.

 

I'm not saying this will happen -- you can't project out that far of course -- BUT. Change at the top over the long term is a very plausible scenario.

 

Spider-Man is not Marvel's Mickey Mouse, hasn't been for over a decade, and won't be again any time soon.

 

Because: Marvel receives $0.00 (edit -- almost) from Sony's Spider-Man box office.

 

Despite the recent "crossover" deal, Ike hates these situations. Hates that other studios control X-Men, Fantastic Four, Spider-Man for film.

 

That's why Avengers, Iron Man, Cap, Thor, GotG have been elevated.

 

Marvel controls the vertical now. Unlike decades past, they are in a position to make the properties of their choosing "important". They won't be making Spider-Man their standard-bearer again anytime soon.

 

 

[Jaydogrules]

If we are looking at 20-25+ years from now, I'm curious to see if AF15 and Hulk #1 are still going to hold the top two spots. Would Spidey or Hulk still maintain their level of popularity or would they be overtaken by other heroes like Iron Man or the Avengers for example? 30 years ago, Fantastic Four #1 was on top of the Silver Age Marvel list.

 

The difference is that Marvel has adopted Spider-man as its corporate symbol and that has held true since the mid to late 80's. Spider-man is Marvel's Mickey Mouse.

 

Escaflown4 is correct here.

 

I'm not saying this will happen -- you can't project out that far of course -- BUT. Change at the top over the long term is a very plausible scenario.

 

Spider-Man is NOT Marvel's Mickey Mouse, hasn't been for over a decade, and won't be again any time soon.

 

Because: Marvel receives $0.00 from Sony's Spider-Man box office.

 

Despite the recent "crossover" deal, Ike hates these situations. Hates that other studios control X-Men, Fantastic Four, Spider-Man for film.

 

That's why Avengers, Iron Man, Cap, Thor, GotG have been elevated.

 

Marvel controls the vertical now. Unlike decades past, they are in a position to make the properties of their choosing "important". They won't be making Spider-Man their standard-bearer again anytime soon.

 

 

That just isn't true at all. Marvel does receive a "royalty" from Spider-Man's box office. How much, I do not know. This holds true for FF and x-men as well. You'll notice that you see the Marvel page flip at the beginning of all of those movies as well.

 

However unlike x men and FF Marvel gets 100% of all TV, video game, toys and all other ancillary revenue from Spider-man, which is by itself billions a year.

 

Spider-man is Marvel's Mikey Mouse. Great analogy. (thumbs u

 

-J.

[markseifert]

 

That just isn't true at all. Marvel does receive a "royalty" from Spider-Man's box office.

 

They absolutely don't get a royalty on box office under the current deal. They gave it up to get access to Spidey as a potential character in Avengers, etc.

 

as part of its new partnership with the studio, according to sources with knowledge of the deal. At the same time, Marvel won’t receive a cut of the box office for any of Sony’s films that feature Spider-Man.

 

Source: http://variety.com/2015/film/news/details-spider-man-appear-in-sony-and-marvel-movies-1201429039/

 

Being fair, I shouldn't have said $0.00. They may get a token in some situations.

 

As for the merch issues:

 

it already controlled the rights for TV, merchandise and other platforms, but the holy grail for Disney has lately been film, where it has been able to launch franchises that impact the bottom line of all of its various divisions.

 

edit to add -- Income from total Marvel merch was $273 million in Q1 2014, which was what I found with a quick google. So, that's not chump change, but it's not billions/yr for Spidey/FF/X merch either, and it's not what they can get when they focus on character rights they totally control.

 

Anything could happen, but stuff that they control completely is going to get their focus (just as it has 2007-present), and that hypothetically may not be Spider-Man again for decades, if ever.

 

As always, devil's advocate. For people who are interested in this stuff, thinking about Marvel Studios vs the other studios has implications for what Marvel will make "important" moving forward. Unless they stumble, Avengers is what FF was 15-50 years ago, they'll try hard to make Inhumans an X-Men-like franchise, and we're going to see a lot more GotG-tier properties get their day in the sun.

[BarryAllen]

So whens the next depression/crash, Nostradamus

 

The 2008 one never ended Falstaff, the money printing is just hiding it by forcing the markets up. It will reassert itself once they are no longer able to hold things up with money printing.

 

But that's not really the point here.

 

It IS the greatest money printing, lowest interest rate, period of time in History. That's not really debatable... people are welcome to think that doesnt have an effect on asset prices, but I absolutely disagree with them in the strongest possible terms.

 

The only other point I made was that anyone buying an expensive asset in this environment, (especially one that has risen a lot in the past few years and has many many people all making the same 'play'), should make sure they arent buying using debt or that they might ever be forced to sell to raise capital (and taking a big loss if the bottom has fallen out).

 

 

 

 

 

[rjpb]

So whens the next depression/crash, Nostradamus

 

The 2008 one never ended Falstaff, the money printing is just hiding it by forcing the markets up. It will reassert itself once they are no longer able to hold things up with money printing.

 

But that's not really the point here.

 

It IS the greatest money printing, lowest interest rate, period of time in History. That's not really debatable... people are welcome to think that doesnt have an effect on asset prices, but I absolutely disagree with them in the strongest possible terms.

 

The only other point I made was that anyone buying an expensive asset in this environment, (especially one that has risen a lot in the past few years and has many many people all making the same 'play'), should make sure they arent buying using debt or that they might ever be forced to sell to raise capital (and taking a big loss if the bottom has fallen out).

 

 

 

 

 

One can argue whether or not recent monetary policy prevented further collapse and allowed for a rebound, or merely papered over the underlying weaknesses, or even a combination of the two, but I agree, there do seem to be many different assets rising too fast and too high to be sustainable long term, and it's a near certainty that sometime in the next four years there will be another recession, as the country has never gone more than decade without one.