Are key comics good investments?

[Peter G]

Does anybody remember the state of the comic book in 1997-1998 , right before CGC breathed new life into this hobby ?

 

I couldn't give my comic books away.

The market was dead.

 

It will happen again. And then also rise again.

 

Its cyclical.

 

That is the nature of the boom and bust of all markets

[BarryAllen]

Does anybody remember the state of the comic book in 1997-1998 , right before CGC breathed new life into this hobby ?

 

I couldn't give my comic books away.

The market was dead.

 

It will happen again. And then also rise again.

 

Its cyclical.

 

That is the nature of the boom and bust of all markets

 

The cyclical nature of "markets" is a fine assertion, but assuming that comics will always reclaim lost value through a "boom" is false. Their future is uncertain, just as is any collectible.

 

We can argue all day long as to when and to what degree, but eventually less and less people will collect comics and values will deflate largely across the vast majority of books (and by vast I mean likely all, maybe save a select few like Action 1, maybe).

 

Comics are not a mass centralized source of capital distribution for the general population (i.e. the stock market), they are a type of collectible that people sometimes hedge on increasing value or collect out of personal preference.

 

The vast majority of things that people collect over time have lost their value as the core generation that collected them have returned to the earth. This is the eventual fate of comic books. 5, 10, 25, 50, 75 or more years... :shrug: To say that it won't happen is foolish, just as to predict a specific time frame in which it will happen for certain is foolhardy.

[BilboBagginsJC-migration]

Not an economic major, but this article makes some good points.

 

 

Time to put some money under the mattress!

[namisgr]

I'm still waiting to learn the identities of the billionaire comic book investors.

 

Simply put, comic 'investing' lacks the scale to even be discussed in the same breadth as other investment vehicles that have the potential to build significant wealth. I'll never get a better return on investment than the one achieved by buying Hulk 181 for 25 cents when it was new and selling it 35 years later for over 20,000 times more. Unfortunately, neither it nor anything else from 4 decades of collecting comics has created wealth that approaches what other investments have been able to provide. So sure, key comics have on occasion yielded great returns in the past, and arguably might still be an avenue for making money going forward, but in the realm of investments that build wealth there are many bigger-scaled and time-proven options.

[Hulksdaddy1]

Not an economic major, but this article makes some good points.

 

 

Time to put some money under the mattress!

 

Interesting article, especially considering the "war on cash" that most governments have been participating in.

[delekkerste]

The cyclical nature of "markets" is a fine assertion, but assuming that comics will always reclaim lost value through a "boom" is false. Their future is uncertain, just as is any collectible.

 

We can argue all day long as to when and to what degree, but eventually less and less people will collect comics and values will deflate largely across the vast majority of books (and by vast I mean likely all, maybe save a select few like Action 1, maybe).

 

Comics are not a mass centralized source of capital distribution for the general population (i.e. the stock market), they are a type of collectible that people sometimes hedge on increasing value or collect out of personal preference.

 

The vast majority of things that people collect over time have lost their value as the core generation that collected them have returned to the earth. This is the eventual fate of comic books. 5, 10, 25, 50, 75 or more years... :shrug: To say that it won't happen is foolish, just as to predict a specific time frame in which it will happen for certain is foolhardy.

 

Exactly. Does anyone think that the stamp and sports card hobbies are merely suffering a "cyclical" downturn? No - these are hobbies that are clearly in secular declines even if the top 0.0001% of material is still very coveted. Not that there won't still be people collecting cards and stamps, but those hobbies' popularity will never be as high as it once was.

 

Everyone here would like to believe that comics are different. But, at the end of the day, they're something a few generations grew up with and prized, but subsequent generations are finding and will find other things that matter more to them. Fewer people are becoming comic book readers and collectors today than when the X-Men and the Avengers were better known as comic book titles and not film franchises. For now, the people who grew up with comics as an integral part of their life experience are still calling the shots as far as the vintage market goes. But, that won't always be the case.

 

Buy because you love comics and can't live without them. If they go up in value, great. If they don't, well, just make sure you don't spend so much that a big decline would cause you emotional or financial distress. If you require comics to only go up or at least maintain their value to maintain your fiscal and/or emotional sanity, then you're probably in over your head.

[NewWorldOrder]

The cyclical nature of "markets" is a fine assertion, but assuming that comics will always reclaim lost value through a "boom" is false. Their future is uncertain, just as is any collectible.

 

We can argue all day long as to when and to what degree, but eventually less and less people will collect comics and values will deflate largely across the vast majority of books (and by vast I mean likely all, maybe save a select few like Action 1, maybe).

 

Comics are not a mass centralized source of capital distribution for the general population (i.e. the stock market), they are a type of collectible that people sometimes hedge on increasing value or collect out of personal preference.

 

The vast majority of things that people collect over time have lost their value as the core generation that collected them have returned to the earth. This is the eventual fate of comic books. 5, 10, 25, 50, 75 or more years... :shrug: To say that it won't happen is foolish, just as to predict a specific time frame in which it will happen for certain is foolhardy.

 

 

 

Exactly. Does anyone think that the stamp and sports card hobbies are merely suffering a "cyclical" downturn? No - these are hobbies that are clearly in secular declines even if the top 0.0001% of material is still very coveted. Not that there won't still be people collecting cards and stamps, but those hobbies' popularity will never be as high as it once was.

 

Everyone here would like to believe that comics are different. But, at the end of the day, they're something a few generations grew up with and prized, but subsequent generations are finding and will find other things that matter more to them. Fewer people are becoming comic book readers and collectors today than when the X-Men and the Avengers were better known as comic book titles and not film franchises. For now, the people who grew up with comics as an integral part of their life experience are still calling the shots as far as the vintage market goes. But, that won't always be the case.

 

Buy because you love comics and can't live without them. If they go up in value, great. If they don't, well, just make sure you don't spend so much that a big decline would cause you emotional or financial distress. If you require comics to only go up or at least maintain their value to maintain your fiscal and/or emotional sanity, then you're probably in over your head.

 

I agree, however I just don't see how any time soon comics or their characters will loss relevance is my point.

 

Even those stupid TMNTs will be good to go for the next 50 years.

 

Disney made comic characters a rising stock.

 

No (instead of ) stocks will outperform collectibles over the long-run. I just don't agree the mega keys are going down in our lifetime. They could of course, but no one can convince they will head downward either.

 

Spending 10K to buy an AF 15 over the long-run will yield a higher rate of return than just having that 10K sit as dead money in your bank. I agree that same money is better suited in a real productive dividend yielding asset in the stock market for sure, but I still feel taking some extra money (5-10%) of your investing budget towards a couple keys books isn't bad idea either.

[Jaydogrules]

Why do people keep comparing comic books to stocks?

 

Comic books are not stocks. Hence why they are best considered an "alternative investment vehicle". They operate under their own set of rules and will perform accordingly.

 

Comic books are not stamps, coins or sports cards either.

 

They are an interactive entertainment medium that have captured the imaginations of generations and continue to do so as they now influence other medium and pop culture itself.

 

Given that pop culture is America's greatest import, nobody needs to lay up at night wondering about the future of the hobby.

 

Despite the few relentless naysayers on here, we will just be fine for the next 50 years, at least. (thumbs u

 

-J.

[thunsicker]

The irony of this whole thread is JazzMan started it by showing how the comics he bought, which are the precise comics many are touting, have underperformed the S&P 500 over the last 5 years. Even without selling fees included. Of course it's possible to beat the market if you bought certain companies or comics, but if you look at ALL your purchases over the last 5 years I would venture a guess not many of you did. And the comics market has definitely been on fire the last 5 years.

[Gatsby77]

Yes -- Jazzman's post (the first one in this thread) is worth re-reading.

 

It's a real-life case study example that an index fund would have been a better investment than a cross-section of comic book keys over the last 60+ months.

[thehumantorch]

Why do people keep comparing comic books to stocks?

 

(thumbs u

 

-J.

 

Because the title of this thread is 'Are key comics good investments?'

 

When discussing the value of something you have to compare it to alternatives.

[Mmehdy]

Why do people keep comparing comic books to stocks?

 

Comic books are not stocks. Hence why they are best considered an "alternative investment vehicle". They operate under their own set of rules and will perform accordingly.

 

Comic books are not stamps, coins or sports cards either.

 

They are an interactive entertainment medium that have captured the imaginations of generations and continue to do so as they now influence other medium and pop culture itself.

 

Given that pop culture is America's greatest import, nobody needs to lay up at night wondering about the future of the hobby.

 

Despite the few relentless naysayers on here, we will just be fine for the next 50 years, at least. (thumbs u

 

-J.

 

The CGC comic is so interactive....it is a plastic container housing an investment widget for speculators....50 years nobody will a gave dammm unless radical change happens in this marketplace.

[Mmehdy]

I'm still waiting to learn the identities of the billionaire comic book investors.

 

Simply put, comic 'investing' lacks the scale to even be discussed in the same breadth as other investment vehicles that have the potential to build significant wealth. I'll never get a better return on investment than the one achieved by buying Hulk 181 for 25 cents when it was new and selling it 35 years later for over 20,000 times more. Unfortunately, neither it nor anything else from 4 decades of collecting comics has created wealth that approaches what other investments have been able to provide. So sure, key comics have on occasion yielded great returns in the past, and arguably might still be an avenue for making money going forward, but in the realm of investments that build wealth there are many bigger-scaled and time-proven options.

 

Here is one and this is what an single billionaire investor can do to pump up a market.

 

Historical Background: Kirby Cofer decides to sell his Carl Barks art collection( the best in the world with at least 10 out of the top 15 barks disney painings and probably 30 or so to be sold over one year and a half. The barks painting market is dead at the time with paintings not making reserve and not changing hands on a private basis.

Theo who at that time owns the second best Carl Barks collection is the only one buying and he is not at the time. However for years Theo has become obsessed with Kirbys collection and certain paintings offering him as much as $250K for the christmas painting. Theo is also mad because he sold Bruce Hamiltion 5 paintings including "vacation panel", The Bicentennial, and Dangerous Discovery for a record price at the time of $200K...Bruce in turn sold Kirby 4 of them for 200K and kept one. The market turned upward and theo became very mad at himself for selling. which turned out to be a veriy cheap price ( yes I was there also at the time the deal went down..and it was above market at the time) He bought back the smallest of the three at the SDCC from bruce many years later for 50K in bruces hotel room ( Iwas there I saw it.

 

 

Enter" Karl Heinz" Prince of Wittgenstein......the perfect storm was created, he is a guy whom 50K is a $20 bill. He decides to start collecting carl barks art. just before the Kirby Cofer collection is gonna be sold...Ha.com has two real bidders, Theo and Jim Halpin...and let me say this about Jim...this is one of the top comic books mind we have, a true visionary with incredible taste as evidenced by his collection and business sense. Jim knows there is gonna value down the road, one of these two guys or George Lucas/Steven Spielberg who are buyer and collectors also. So now, we have possibly 3 possible billionaires and Jim, who probably is worth north of 200 million , and Theo.

 

Karl, Theo( bought all of his ones back that Kirby had gotten from Bruce), Jim were wining the pantings also with 1/2 possibly going to George( we will know when his museum opens...but he did have one non-kirby painting on his website displayed early on).

 

The showdown occurred on November 16, 2011. This painting and the one Steven Spielberg owns are considered the top to paintings of Scrooge diving in the money.

"the Sport of the Tycoons" was considered the "crown Jewel" of the Kirby Cofer" collection..he states he used to look at it everyday.

 

When you have this mixture of buyers...world records happen. Those who have delt with George know he does not like overpay for anything..he will let it go....Karl was just new into the market and was a early conservative bidder (which he will later regret and later cost him more money down the road) looking at price, not the art.

 

Although it says, 14 bidders were participated. it came down to Karl, Theo, Jim, and either George/Steven....Karl and Jim faded...on that day theo won out but is was not cheap...a world record price of $262,900.00 plus shipping.

 

Ha.com now advertises how much the Kirby Cofer collection brought in (3Mill with the last of his paintings being auction last year-4 western ones), they came out big winners. However without Karl the collection would have brought 50% of what it sold for.

 

Afterword: George is still buying, Jim is still buying and collecting...Karl however learned that its not the price...its the art that counts, endued up buying most of Jims carl barks winnings at a increased cost. Then Karl went on a buying spree....and hired a staff and created a incredible BOOK of his collection(limited but on web now). You can see the book and work that went into it at www. carlbarkscollection.com it is very very well done. Since the book, Karl has been buying like crazy and has acquired several other large oils and drawings which are not in the book. I think he has well over 100 now.

 

 

I would love to have book written about my collection....The "B"s are out there..but not all them throw money away...why not showcase your collection for a what you would consider a $20 bill, Karl did and he did it right also.

[namisgr]

Why do people keep comparing comic books to stocks?

 

Because they're comparing 'investments', the original topic of the thread. My own comparison was to remind of the difference between making a bit of money on collectibles and building wealth through investment. Unless you're playing in the deepest end of the comic book pool, the differences of scale matter, and referring to buying and selling of key comics as 'investment' is a stretch.

[Aman619]

why do you keep saying that the CGC case is a problem? For expensive books, which appeal to people who already are familiar with the contents, and have already read the story, or don't care to, buying a copy in a case is no problem at all. It also protects the comic, if you don't throw it around that is.

 

And, for those collectors like you who hate the cases, just crack the book out if you want. People do it all the time and are happy that they can at least trust the grade as opposed to buying raw books from dealers for so many years.

 

Slabbed comics are not the cause for the (coming) demographic decline of the hobby. For new kids coming in its probably a positive if they are buying the books for their values, as trophies in their collection. Far better than way back when we bought VGs sold as VFs.

 

 

[Mmehdy]

why do you keep saying that the CGC case is a problem? For expensive books, which appeal to people who already are familiar with the contents, and have already read the story, or don't care to, buying a copy in a case is no problem at all. It also protects the comic, if you don't throw it around that is.

 

And, for those collectors like you who hate the cases, just crack the book out if you want. People do it all the time and are happy that they can at least trust the grade as opposed to buying raw books from dealers for so many years.

 

Slabbed comics are not the cause for the (coming) demographic decline of the hobby. For new kids coming in its probably a positive if they are buying the books for their values, as trophies in their collection. Far better than way back when we bought VGs sold as VFs.

 

 

The plastic is not the problem...its the advertising hype that CGC instilled on comic book collectors and the market that a comic book in their plastic holder makes the comic book worth 5 or 10 times market price..remember the ad...Hulk 181...10 times price...and with that the speculators went wild, the auction houses hype up the inaccurate census, and we are being led off a collector cliff by greed.

[thunsicker]

why do you keep saying that the CGC case is a problem? For expensive books, which appeal to people who already are familiar with the contents, and have already read the story, or don't care to, buying a copy in a case is no problem at all. It also protects the comic, if you don't throw it around that is.

 

And, for those collectors like you who hate the cases, just crack the book out if you want. People do it all the time and are happy that they can at least trust the grade as opposed to buying raw books from dealers for so many years.

 

Slabbed comics are not the cause for the (coming) demographic decline of the hobby. For new kids coming in its probably a positive if they are buying the books for their values, as trophies in their collection. Far better than way back when we bought VGs sold as VFs.

 

 

+1. I see slabs as a sign of the current trend away from collecting and towards "investing". Not as a cause of the shift.

[Gatsby77]

Mitch -- I'd argue slabs have been good for the hobby.

 

Because:

 

1) They serve as a resto check that means you can actually buy books sight-unseen that (usually) prove resto-free.

 

Beats the heck out of having to go to conventions with a black light.

 

2) It guarantees the grade.

 

Again -- facilitates eBay or mail-order buying. Beats the heck out of buying "VF" or "NM" comics from ads in the Comics Buyer's Guide back in the day, only to have them arrive as VG+.

 

3) It's increased liquidity in the market.

 

Now, folks can sell virtually any comic because even 5th tier "dead" books have transparent values dictated by a small sample of past sales shown via GPA. The result is even '50s Westerns and dead 1940s cartoon books are easier to sell than a decade ago, because any fool can view a few actual prices paid for the books with a few keystrokes.

 

If you're too cheap for GPA, Heritage's database does the same thing for free.

 

4) It also hasn't pushed the vast majority of collectors out of the market.

 

Sure -- it's pushed prices stratospheric for rare nosebleed grades (let's say 9.0+ on Silver Age keys), but that only affects those in the rarefied atmosphere who could bid on them at inflated prices before anyway.

 

For instance, "collectors" weren't paying $40k for the White Mountain copy of AF 15 back in 1990. Or $150k for the same (now CGC 9.4) copy in 2004.

 

 

 

 

The reality is there's only a small pool of buyers willing to spend $1,000+ on _any_ comic book -- so at that level, whether it's "collecting," "investing," or "speculating" is splitting hairs.

[Mmehdy]

Mitch -- I'd argue slabs have been good for the hobby.

 

Because:

 

1) They serve as a resto check that means you can actually buy books sight-unseen that (usually) prove resto-free.

 

Beats the heck out of having to go to conventions with a black light.

 

2) It guarantees the grade.

 

Again -- facilitates eBay or mail-order buying. Beats the heck out of buying "VF" or "NM" comics from ads in the Comics Buyer's Guide back in the day, only to have them arrive as VG+.

 

3) It's increased liquidity in the market.

 

Now, folks can sell virtually any comic because even 5th tier "dead" books have transparent values dictated by a small sample of past sales shown via GPA. The result is even '50s Westerns and dead 1940s cartoon books are easier to sell than a decade ago, because any fool can view a few actual prices paid for the books with a few keystrokes.

 

If you're too cheap for GPA, Heritage's database does the same thing for free.

 

4) It also hasn't pushed the vast majority of collectors out of the market.

 

Sure -- it's pushed prices stratospheric for rare nosebleed grades (let's say 9.0+ on Silver Age keys), but that only affects those in the rarefied atmosphere who could bid on them at inflated prices before anyway.

 

For instance, "collectors" weren't paying $40k for the White Mountain copy of AF 15 back in 1990. Or $150k for the same (now CGC 9.4) copy in 2004.

 

 

 

 

The reality is there's only a small pool of buyers willing to spend $1,000+ on _any_ comic book -- so at that level, whether it's "collecting," "investing," or "speculating" is splitting hairs.

 

and that pool of buyers are getting less and less as prices go up..daliy as the "hype" prices increases...and the "key" label is used commonly to raise the market price on your auction bidding.

 

A speculator could carre less about comics...he is looking for a quick buck...whether its a cow, oil future, or a CGC graded comic book or slab....I hope there still is a major difference for both our sakes or we are really in deep trouble

[Hulksdaddy1]

High prices turn collectors into speculators. That's a fact.