Are key comics good investments?

[Sqeggs]

Agreed with the above.

 

Gene's Warren Buffett-style argument that comics aren't a Class A investment because they are "non-productive" is both specious and hypcritical.

 

Specious, because collectibles can (and have) out-perform(ed) stocks across several time horizons.

 

Jeez, the guy makes a few bucks in comics and thinks he's smarter than Warren Buffett.

 

Over the long run, stocks have beaten every other asset class. Some collectibles have outperformed stocks across certain time horizons, but it's hard to know ex ante which are going to outperform and when, because collectibles have a curious way of going in and out of fashion (sometimes permanently). To say that comics have outperformed for the last 75 or 100 years is a truly specious argument. No one buying Action #1 for 10 cents was investing in it, and you couldn't have put more than a couple of bucks into it at the time anyway. And, even though the hobby has been around for decades, the market was horribly fragmented and illiquid until the Internet and later third party grading facilitated peer to peer sales/trades and leveled the playing field. The hobby has not truly been "investable" for a very long part of its history.

 

If you caught the revaluation from the low base to where we are today, you did well if you bought the top key comics. It is utterly mind-boggling to me, though, that so many of you fail to recognize that, buying non-productive assets after they have been revalued significantly higher due to the aforementioned factors and others, is not likely to produce the same kind of historical returns as in the past. And, in fact, may be subject to mean reversion, slower growth rates or even declines. Not to mention completely ignoring what is happening outside of your little comic world microcosm as well as how the collector base has/is/will change going forward. You're simply extrapolating the recent past indefinitely into the future.

 

It's really not a wonder why stocks have outperformed over time - as the economy grows over time, companies generate more earnings, earnings which can make up for any temporary setback (I'm talking about the market as a whole; of course some stocks can do spectacularly better or, alternatively, tank to zero). The companies that comprise the stock market relentlessly create value over time. Owners of non-productive assets, on the other hand, always need to find that next buyer to pay more...for the same thing. Collectibles create nothing and are subject to the whims and tastes of each succeeding generation. The deck is stacked in favor of productive assets over the long run.

 

 

And hypocritical, because Gene at one point advocated buying gold (another non-productive asset class) here on these boards.

 

Have I advocated buying gold in the past? Yes (but not for many years other than for short-term trading purposes). Have I advocated buying gold as something that's going to make people a lot of money as an investment? Absolutely not (again, aside from trading/speculation purposes). In fact, I've repeatedly warned guys like Roy (VintageComics) and Sid (BassGMan) that gold and other commodities mean revert to their marginal cost of production over time and that one should think of gold as an insurance policy/disaster hedge/store of value and explicitly NOT as an investment. It generates no earnings, interest, rents or dividends. An ounce of gold in a hundred years will still only be an ounce of gold. But, over time, it should at least maintain purchasing power as it has for the past 5,000 years. To me, there is some value in owning something that you know will never be worthless. But, unless you're speculating on it with huge leverage, it will never make you rich. It's not supposed to. It's a non-productive asset. So, sorry, no hypocrisy here.

 

Look, with the benefit of hindsight, we know that key comics were cheap relative to both incomes and other collectibles. But, then we got the Internet and third party grading which transformed a market hampered by illiquidity into one of the most liquid collectibles markets, causing prices to revalue significantly higher. You had technology advance to the point where great super-hero movies could be made, which gave the hobby a steroidal shot in the arm. You had the last generation of kids who grew up with comics pre-1995 come of age and hit their stride professionally. At a time when interest rates fell to near zero, asset values rocketed higher almost across the board, and fortunes were made across a ton of different industries and investment classes. Rising prices led to more money being invested into the hobby, and a whole industry ramped up around it (everything from GPAnalysis to the auction houses to more conventions, etc.) Then you had the CPR phenomenon and a marked lowering of grading standards which spurred a new frenzy. And then more movies. And even bubblier investment conditions.

 

But, that's all embedded in prices now, and, as I and others have pointed out, there are some real issues about what the collector base will look like as the years/decades roll by. Yes, more things could happen to propel prices higher, at least for a while. But, as with anything, returns eventually get harder to come by at higher values, especially if there's nothing underpinning those gains (like earnings) - even without a diminishing of the collector base.

 

Man, these threads are hardy perennials! Not a month goes by without a new one. I wonder if we could get Arch to sticky your analysis? It might save some poor souls a lot of dough.

 

As you note, and as I've stated in several earlier threads, there have been a series of factors that have pushed comic prices -- particularly prices of keys -- to levels well above where they were 15 to 20 years ago. Anyone who accumulated books back then, has clearly done well.

 

But for similar price increase to occur in the future, additional sources of demand need to appear. What would those new sources of demand be?

 

Many people seem to equate the argument that comics are, at best, a risky investment with the argument that comic book prices are going to collapse. If you spend a $100K on a high grade AF 15 (maybe that only gets you a mid-grade these days ), it doesn't take a collapse in demand for that purchase to be a poor investment. It will be a poor investment compared with, say, investing in a diversified stock index fund, unless demand increases substantially from here.

 

Why would demand for AF 15 continue to increase as rapidly as it has in the past? Where is the source of demand to drive prices substantially higher going to come from?

 

If you want to pay $100K for an AF 15 because you are a Spidey fan and you want to add a nice copy to your collection, by all means do so. But investing in comics is a very risk way to attempt to accumulate wealth in the long run.

[october]

Why would demand for AF 15 continue to increase as rapidly as it has in the past? Where is the source of demand to drive prices substantially higher going to come from?

 

People asked this very same question 5-10 years ago. It went something like this:

 

Where is the demand going to come from with three movies already out? Where is the demand going to come from with an aging reader base and dwindling readership on monthly floppies? Where is the demand going to come from with price tags for this issue already in the five to six figure range? Where is the demand going to come from with younger collectors distracted by more and more digital content and limitless entertainment?

 

And yet here we are. I wish I'd picked up a dozen copies when this was discussed back then.

 

This thread probably should be a sticky, though we probably differ on the reason why.

[october]

The cyclical nature of "markets" is a fine assertion, but assuming that comics will always reclaim lost value through a "boom" is false. Their future is uncertain, just as is any collectible.

 

We can argue all day long as to when and to what degree, but eventually less and less people will collect comics and values will deflate largely across the vast majority of books (and by vast I mean likely all, maybe save a select few like Action 1, maybe).

 

Comics are not a mass centralized source of capital distribution for the general population (i.e. the stock market), they are a type of collectible that people sometimes hedge on increasing value or collect out of personal preference.

 

The vast majority of things that people collect over time have lost their value as the core generation that collected them have returned to the earth. This is the eventual fate of comic books. 5, 10, 25, 50, 75 or more years... :shrug: To say that it won't happen is foolish, just as to predict a specific time frame in which it will happen for certain is foolhardy.

 

Exactly. Does anyone think that the stamp and sports card hobbies are merely suffering a "cyclical" downturn? No - these are hobbies that are clearly in secular declines even if the top 0.0001% of material is still very coveted. Not that there won't still be people collecting cards and stamps, but those hobbies' popularity will never be as high as it once was.

 

Everyone here would like to believe that comics are different. But, at the end of the day, they're something a few generations grew up with and prized, but subsequent generations are finding and will find other things that matter more to them. Fewer people are becoming comic book readers and collectors today than when the X-Men and the Avengers were better known as comic book titles and not film franchises. For now, the people who grew up with comics as an integral part of their life experience are still calling the shots as far as the vintage market goes. But, that won't always be the case.

 

Buy because you love comics and can't live without them. If they go up in value, great. If they don't, well, just make sure you don't spend so much that a big decline would cause you emotional or financial distress. If you require comics to only go up or at least maintain their value to maintain your fiscal and/or emotional sanity, then you're probably in over your head.

 

Have you bought Donut dinner yet?

[Jaydogrules]

Why would demand for AF 15 continue to increase as rapidly as it has in the past? Where is the source of demand to drive prices substantially higher going to come from?

 

People asked this very same question 5-10 years ago. It went something like this:

 

Where is the demand going to come from with three movies already out? Where is the demand going to come from with an aging reader base and dwindling readership on monthly floppies? Where is the demand going to come from with price tags for this issue already in the five to six figure range? Where is the demand going to come from with younger collectors distracted by more and more digital content and limitless entertainment?

 

And yet here we are. I wish I'd picked up a dozen copies when this was discussed back then.

 

This thread probably should be a sticky, though we probably differ on the reason why.

 

+1

 

Makes one wonder how many years someone has to be wrong before they admit it.

 

Or, as someone else opined earlier....if you run around like Chicken Little telling everyone the sky is going to fall for long enough, if it should ever actually happen you can then run around trying to convince everyone how smart you were the whole time.

 

-J.

[Hulksdaddy1]

+

Why would demand for AF 15 continue to increase as rapidly as it has in the past? Where is the source of demand to drive prices substantially higher going to come from?

 

People asked this very same question 5-10 years ago. It went something like this:

 

Where is the demand going to come from with three movies already out? Where is the demand going to come from with an aging reader base and dwindling readership on monthly floppies? Where is the demand going to come from with price tags for this issue already in the five to six figure range? Where is the demand going to come from with younger collectors distracted by more and more digital content and limitless entertainment?

 

And yet here we are. I wish I'd picked up a dozen copies when this was discussed back then.

 

This thread probably should be a sticky, though we probably differ on the reason why.

 

+1

 

Makes one wonder how many years someone has to be wrong before they admit it.

 

Or, as someone else opined earlier....if you run around like Chicken Little telling everyone the sky is going to fall for long enough, if it should ever actually happen you can then run around trying to convince everyone how smart you were the whole time.

 

-J.

 

Ask Donald Rumsfeld.

[Jaydogrules]

+

Why would demand for AF 15 continue to increase as rapidly as it has in the past? Where is the source of demand to drive prices substantially higher going to come from?

 

People asked this very same question 5-10 years ago. It went something like this:

 

Where is the demand going to come from with three movies already out? Where is the demand going to come from with an aging reader base and dwindling readership on monthly floppies? Where is the demand going to come from with price tags for this issue already in the five to six figure range? Where is the demand going to come from with younger collectors distracted by more and more digital content and limitless entertainment?

 

And yet here we are. I wish I'd picked up a dozen copies when this was discussed back then.

 

This thread probably should be a sticky, though we probably differ on the reason why.

 

+1

 

Makes one wonder how many years someone has to be wrong before they admit it.

 

Or, as someone else opined earlier....if you run around like Chicken Little telling everyone the sky is going to fall for long enough, if it should ever actually happen you can then run around trying to convince everyone how smart you were the whole time.

 

-J.

 

Ask Donald Rumsfeld.

 

 

-J.

[Aman619]

why do you keep saying that the CGC case is a problem? For expensive books, which appeal to people who already are familiar with the contents, and have already read the story, or don't care to, buying a copy in a case is no problem at all. It also protects the comic, if you don't throw it around that is.

 

And, for those collectors like you who hate the cases, just crack the book out if you want. People do it all the time and are happy that they can at least trust the grade as opposed to buying raw books from dealers for so many years.

 

Slabbed comics are not the cause for the (coming) demographic decline of the hobby. For new kids coming in its probably a positive if they are buying the books for their values, as trophies in their collection. Far better than way back when we bought VGs sold as VFs.

 

 

The plastic is not the problem...its the advertising hype that CGC instilled on comic book collectors and the market that a comic book in their plastic holder makes the comic book worth 5 or 10 times market price..remember the ad...Hulk 181...10 times price...and with that the speculators went wild, the auction houses hype up the inaccurate census, and we are being led off a collector cliff by greed.

 

oh Mitch. you are talking about CGC ads way back in the beginning when convincing cynical collectors (like nearly all of us) to entomb our comics. It was NOT an immediately obvious thing to do. And once there was actual sales data that a 9.8 early on would sell for 20x a raw copy (due to trust in the CGC grade and process) what would you or anyone else use for YOUR media plan?

 

Lets see, heres data that says our product fosters confidence in the public that makes them safe paying far more than ever before. Nah, lets not say that!

 

Of course in retrospect, many of the early huge sales of common books were to buyers who didn't really understand how common these books were even in 9.8, which at the time seemed like they "just must be one of a kind!" I myself never imagined how many 9.8s I had sitting raw in my collection, thinking just the fewest of the few remained in such pristine condition.

 

Ten years later, we know they are common in HG, and prices reflect that change. But can you really blame CGC for this? In all hobbies the market decides. In our case it mistakenly assumed 9.8s were going to be scarce for common books, and even remain one of a ind even for SIlver Age books.

 

ooops. So don't blame CGC, look in the mirror. Or, since Im sure you weren't the buyer of these books, look around a convention or here on the Boards. It wasn't CGC, it was US.

[prez]

High prices turn collectors into speculators. That's a fact.

 

How so? I find myself significantly cutting back on the number of books I'm picking up per month. I only buy titles and characters that I like - I'm pretty content with my 8 short boxes of books. If the prices continue to go up, I'll just keep cutting back. No sense on stressing myself and constantly flipping books to fund a hobby.

[Mmehdy]

High prices turn collectors into speculators. That's a fact.

 

How so? I find myself significantly cutting back on the number of books I'm picking up per month. I only buy titles and characters that I like - I'm pretty content with my 8 short boxes of books. If the prices continue to go up, I'll just keep cutting back. No sense on stressing myself and constantly flipping books to fund a hobby.

 

That is exactly what I am taking about. Here, you being a true collector admits that if the prices go up, you will keep cutting back....It is a shame the prices raised due to speculation do not correlate to actual value. When YOU cut back, we all lose in this comic book world.

[Mmehdy]

why do you keep saying that the CGC case is a problem? For expensive books, which appeal to people who already are familiar with the contents, and have already read the story, or don't care to, buying a copy in a case is no problem at all. It also protects the comic, if you don't throw it around that is.

 

And, for those collectors like you who hate the cases, just crack the book out if you want. People do it all the time and are happy that they can at least trust the grade as opposed to buying raw books from dealers for so many years.

 

Slabbed comics are not the cause for the (coming) demographic decline of the hobby. For new kids coming in its probably a positive if they are buying the books for their values, as trophies in their collection. Far better than way back when we bought VGs sold as VFs.

 

 

The plastic is not the problem...its the advertising hype that CGC instilled on comic book collectors and the market that a comic book in their plastic holder makes the comic book worth 5 or 10 times market price..remember the ad...Hulk 181...10 times price...and with that the speculators went wild, the auction houses hype up the inaccurate census, and we are being led off a collector cliff by greed.

 

oh Mitch. you are talking about CGC ads way back in the beginning when convincing cynical collectors (like nearly all of us) to entomb our comics. It was NOT an immediately obvious thing to do. And once there was actual sales data that a 9.8 early on would sell for 20x a raw copy (due to trust in the CGC grade and process) what would you or anyone else use for YOUR media plan?

 

Lets see, heres data that says our product fosters confidence in the public that makes them safe paying far more than ever before. Nah, lets not say that!

 

Of course in retrospect, many of the early huge sales of common books were to buyers who didn't really understand how common these books were even in 9.8, which at the time seemed like they "just must be one of a kind!" I myself never imagined how many 9.8s I had sitting raw in my collection, thinking just the fewest of the few remained in such pristine condition.

 

Ten years later, we know they are common in HG, and prices reflect that change. But can you really blame CGC for this? In all hobbies the market decides. In our case it mistakenly assumed 9.8s were going to be scarce for common books, and even remain one of a ind even for SIlver Age books.

 

ooops. So don't blame CGC, look in the mirror. Or, since Im sure you weren't the buyer of these books, look around a convention or here on the Boards. It wasn't CGC, it was US.

 

I find it difficult to blame "US". Who are we.?.. An.excellent and a very important question that you raise.

We not the CGC who's goal is to grade as many comic books to maintain profit margins as possible even if the cost of doing so exceeds the actual market value of the comic book itself. We are not the major auction houses, some of whom actually bid on there own auctions to prop the market up and churn as many books as possible to hit that yearly total. We are not the all mighty census...the FOOLproof way to buy a comic book to ensure the "speculator" price you paid has a chance of holding some of its over priced cost. I KNOW we are not collectors buying comic books, just like corn or wheat or any other commodity.

 

I hope we aspire to something much greater....we appreciate the art, the story, the history of each and ever page produced...generation after generation reflecting vaues which stand the test of time... we should be .looking for a little truth, justice and the american way. No speculator, no auction house, no grading company, and no census taker is ever gonna take that away from US. That is who we are FOREVER.

 

 

 

[COI]

Why would demand for AF 15 continue to increase as rapidly as it has in the past? Where is the source of demand to drive prices substantially higher going to come from?

 

People asked this very same question 5-10 years ago. It went something like this:

 

Where is the demand going to come from with three movies already out? Where is the demand going to come from with an aging reader base and dwindling readership on monthly floppies? Where is the demand going to come from with price tags for this issue already in the five to six figure range? Where is the demand going to come from with younger collectors distracted by more and more digital content and limitless entertainment?

 

And yet here we are. I wish I'd picked up a dozen copies when this was discussed back then.

 

This thread probably should be a sticky, though we probably differ on the reason why.

 

There's no way to have this discussion without speculation, hindsight is easy, and 5-10 years is not a long time; it's certainly not long enough to determine much in regards to the impact of an entire generation born into the paradigm of digital-only consumption of media and entertainment. These "younger collectors" we were talking about then are still kids, just as many of the "older" collectors who have been assembling their collections for decades are still collecting and haven't yet cashed out.

[october]

Why would demand for AF 15 continue to increase as rapidly as it has in the past? Where is the source of demand to drive prices substantially higher going to come from?

 

People asked this very same question 5-10 years ago. It went something like this:

 

Where is the demand going to come from with three movies already out? Where is the demand going to come from with an aging reader base and dwindling readership on monthly floppies? Where is the demand going to come from with price tags for this issue already in the five to six figure range? Where is the demand going to come from with younger collectors distracted by more and more digital content and limitless entertainment?

 

And yet here we are. I wish I'd picked up a dozen copies when this was discussed back then.

 

This thread probably should be a sticky, though we probably differ on the reason why.

 

There's no way to have this discussion without speculation, hindsight is easy, and 5-10 years is not a long time; it's certainly not long enough to determine much in regards to the impact of an entire generation born into the paradigm of digital-only consumption of media and entertainment. These "younger collectors" we were talking about then are still kids, just as many of the "older" collectors who have been assembling their collections for decades are still collecting and haven't yet cashed out.

 

Hindsight? It wasn't hindsight that kept me buying ten years ago when half the board said the market was at a peak.

 

We have heard that same song and dance for the last decade, only the prediction ten years ago was a crash when the Baby Boomers retired. Now, magically, the can has been kicked down the road to include Gen X and now it's Millenials who won't care about comics.

 

I don't pretend to know what the future holds. I do know that perenially bearish outlooks tend to lose their lustre after over a decade of failed predictions.

[Hulksdaddy1]

High prices turn collectors into speculators. That's a fact.

 

How so? I find myself significantly cutting back on the number of books I'm picking up per month. I only buy titles and characters that I like - I'm pretty content with my 8 short boxes of books. If the prices continue to go up, I'll just keep cutting back. No sense on stressing myself and constantly flipping books to fund a hobby.

 

In the sense that a book you previously wouldn't have thought if parting with, when the price spikes, you do. And then start speculating about when to sell, has it topped out, etc.

 

The old "it's too expensive NOT to sell now."

[oakman29]

Why would demand for AF 15 continue to increase as rapidly as it has in the past? Where is the source of demand to drive prices substantially higher going to come from?

 

People asked this very same question 5-10 years ago. It went something like this:

 

Where is the demand going to come from with three movies already out? Where is the demand going to come from with an aging reader base and dwindling readership on monthly floppies? Where is the demand going to come from with price tags for this issue already in the five to six figure range? Where is the demand going to come from with younger collectors distracted by more and more digital content and limitless entertainment?

 

And yet here we are. I wish I'd picked up a dozen copies when this was discussed back then.

 

This thread probably should be a sticky, though we probably differ on the reason why.

 

+1

 

Makes one wonder how many years someone has to be wrong before they admit it.

 

Or, as someone else opined earlier....if you run around like Chicken Little telling everyone the sky is going to fall for long enough, if it should ever actually happen you can then run around trying to convince everyone how smart you were the whole time.

 

-J.

 

Damn that is a great analogy.

I've heard this doom and gloom song and dance for so long,it gets more painful every year someone brings it up.Funny how it's always the same people on here predicting the end.

[COI]

Why would demand for AF 15 continue to increase as rapidly as it has in the past? Where is the source of demand to drive prices substantially higher going to come from?

 

People asked this very same question 5-10 years ago. It went something like this:

 

Where is the demand going to come from with three movies already out? Where is the demand going to come from with an aging reader base and dwindling readership on monthly floppies? Where is the demand going to come from with price tags for this issue already in the five to six figure range? Where is the demand going to come from with younger collectors distracted by more and more digital content and limitless entertainment?

 

And yet here we are. I wish I'd picked up a dozen copies when this was discussed back then.

 

This thread probably should be a sticky, though we probably differ on the reason why.

 

There's no way to have this discussion without speculation, hindsight is easy, and 5-10 years is not a long time; it's certainly not long enough to determine much in regards to the impact of an entire generation born into the paradigm of digital-only consumption of media and entertainment. These "younger collectors" we were talking about then are still kids, just as many of the "older" collectors who have been assembling their collections for decades are still collecting and haven't yet cashed out.

 

Hindsight? It wasn't hindsight that kept me buying ten years ago when half the board said the market was at a peak.

 

We have heard that same song and dance for the last decade, only the prediction ten years ago was a crash when the Baby Boomers retired. Now, magically, the can has been kicked down the road to include Gen X and now it's Millenials who won't care about comics.

 

I don't pretend to know what the future holds. I do know that perenially bearish outlooks tend to lose their lustre after over a decade of failed predictions.

 

I don't pretend to know what the future holds either, and at the risk of speaking for people who don't need to be spoken for, I don't think any reasonable person thinks they do either, hence the speculation. We all know it's speculation, and clearly, those of us who thought the market was at its peak 5 years ago, including myself, were wrong.

 

A bearish outlook should only push the buttons of someone who is planning to put most of their eggs in the comic basket for the next decade or two, as a retirement plan. I'm more than certain you don't fit that profile, so I'm not really sure why this annoys you so much. These conversations will inevitably continue and intensify precisely because of how sharply prices have risen for key books in the last couple of years. While it's always the paragons of wise financial planning extolling the virtues of collecting for its own sake who are participating in these discussions, I'm sure there are many lurking who might find these conversations somewhat useful in forming their own opinion, one way or the other. This is old hat for us, but there are a lot of new members and newbies to the hobby in general who haven't taken this ride yet. I think there are arguments on both sides that have merit, and on the bearish end specifically, arguments that shouldn't necessarily be completely dismissed just because the timelines have been off.

[COI]

Why would demand for AF 15 continue to increase as rapidly as it has in the past? Where is the source of demand to drive prices substantially higher going to come from?

 

People asked this very same question 5-10 years ago. It went something like this:

 

Where is the demand going to come from with three movies already out? Where is the demand going to come from with an aging reader base and dwindling readership on monthly floppies? Where is the demand going to come from with price tags for this issue already in the five to six figure range? Where is the demand going to come from with younger collectors distracted by more and more digital content and limitless entertainment?

 

And yet here we are. I wish I'd picked up a dozen copies when this was discussed back then.

 

This thread probably should be a sticky, though we probably differ on the reason why.

 

+1

 

Makes one wonder how many years someone has to be wrong before they admit it.

 

Or, as someone else opined earlier....if you run around like Chicken Little telling everyone the sky is going to fall for long enough, if it should ever actually happen you can then run around trying to convince everyone how smart you were the whole time.

 

-J.

 

Damn that is a great analogy.

I've heard this doom and gloom song and dance for so long,it gets more painful every year someone brings it up.Funny how it's always the same people on here predicting the end.

 

Yep. And the same people getting defensive about it.

[musicmeta]

The comic book market will do what it will do and only time will tell.

I recall being able to buy an AF15 for $2200 and saying to myself, "That price is ridiculous" as guide price was way less than that...No way it's going to rise past that in the near future. So who knew.. hind sight is always 20-20.

[delekkerste]

There's no way to have this discussion without speculation, hindsight is easy, and 5-10 years is not a long time; it's certainly not long enough to determine much in regards to the impact of an entire generation born into the paradigm of digital-only consumption of media and entertainment. These "younger collectors" we were talking about then are still kids, just as many of the "older" collectors who have been assembling their collections for decades are still collecting and haven't yet cashed out.

 

Great points, Andrew.

 

I would also add that this view that things will always remain peachy because there were doubters in the past and there are still doubters now is both blinkered and bizarre. I got for people - there are always Cassandras out there, much as there are always Pollyannas. To just point to their existence without regard for changes in the underlying facts and fundamentals (both now and in the future) is just

 

I asked earlier in this thread: Let's say AF #15 5.5's suddenly went to $250,000 overnight. Would it still be a good investment then? There is nothing inherent about AF #15 that makes it a good investment at any price. In fact, it's probably the most obvious investment in the comic market and, as such, unless you believe that the market is grossly inefficient, it should be priced to reflect low-risk and low returns.

 

Clearly some of the would-be comic market Warren Buffetts here would just take an overnight 10x move in AF #15 prices as further validation of their bullishness, look backwards and extrapolate prices gains even farther out into the future instead of recognizing that such a move just priced out 99.99% of existing collectors and might tempt people to cash in on that windfall of life-changing money for many.

 

It's not what you buy, it's when you buy (i.e., at what price) and when you sell that counts. The doubters may still be here, but that doesn't change the fact that both prices and fundamentals have changed dramatically over the past 10-15 years and that people buying today are starting off at a very different point in the hobby's lifecycle as people back then.

[prez]

High prices turn collectors into speculators. That's a fact.

 

How so? I find myself significantly cutting back on the number of books I'm picking up per month. I only buy titles and characters that I like - I'm pretty content with my 8 short boxes of books. If the prices continue to go up, I'll just keep cutting back. No sense on stressing myself and constantly flipping books to fund a hobby.

 

In the sense that a book you previously wouldn't have thought if parting with, when the price spikes, you do. And then start speculating about when to sell, has it topped out, etc.

 

The old "it's too expensive NOT to sell now."

 

Good point. Those collectors who sells just because of the $$ to be made will likely experience seller's remorse. I've been there before and that feeling sucks.

 

 

[Aman619]

There's no way to have this discussion without speculation, hindsight is easy, and 5-10 years is not a long time; it's certainly not long enough to determine much in regards to the impact of an entire generation born into the paradigm of digital-only consumption of media and entertainment. These "younger collectors" we were talking about then are still kids, just as many of the "older" collectors who have been assembling their collections for decades are still collecting and haven't yet cashed out.

 

Great points, Andrew.

 

I would also add that this view that things will always remain peachy because there were doubters in the past and there are still doubters now is both blinkered and bizarre. I got for people - there are always Cassandras out there, much as there are always Pollyannas. To just point to their existence without regard for changes in the underlying facts and fundamentals (both now and in the future) is just

 

I asked earlier in this thread: Let's say AF #15 5.5's suddenly went to $250,000 overnight. Would it still be a good investment then? There is nothing inherent about AF #15 that makes it a good investment at any price. In fact, it's probably the most obvious investment in the comic market and, as such, unless you believe that the market is grossly inefficient, it should be priced to reflect low-risk and low returns.

 

Clearly some of the would-be comic market Warren Buffetts here would just take an overnight 10x move in AF #15 prices as further validation of their bullishness, look backwards and extrapolate prices gains even farther out into the future instead of recognizing that such a move just priced out 99.99% of existing collectors and might tempt people to cash in on that windfall of life-changing money for many.

 

It's not what you buy, it's when you buy (i.e., at what price) and when you sell that counts. The doubters may still be here, but that doesn't change the fact that both prices and fundamentals have changed dramatically over the past 10-15 years and that people buying today are starting off at a very different point in the hobby's lifecycle as people back then.

 

 

Yeah but... Your example is a tad extreme. AF15s in 5.5 might go up 5K overnight, or quickly, and that would just leave us in the status quo... The steady price escalation unabated, awaiting the generational cliff dive. It's not fair to posit a 5.5 going to 250k at ANY point !