Modern variant values... finding the logic?

[exitmusicblue]

I really don't understand the thrust of this thread either.

 

[snip]

 

7 Obvious Points That Makes This Conversation Pointless/i]

 

[end snip]

 

-J

 

I wondered when you would show up.

 

You don't get it. It's not the first time. See you later.

 

Nice avoidance.

 

-J.

Regular copies of #667 are $4. You didn't include that fact in your 7 Points... so you haven't read my first post.

 

A $4 regular issue and a $9000 variant... if someone were to make a General poll re: is this stupid vs. awesome, the results won't be close. I may be pushed over the edge to do so.

 

Welcome to collecting comic book collecting.

 

Start 100 polls. It won't do anything to affect the value of the ASM 667 either way. It was going for thousands of dollars before you even knew what it was

 

(Just thought I'd put that out there since that appears to be your agenda. )

 

-J.

 

Welcome to a supreme "outlier" (that is a euphemism) sale. No agendas. Feel free to get additional copies for 9.5k. Keep alienatin'. Just don't want to see this become a regular occurrence for the whole of the Modern hobby.

[valiantman]

I'm saying that when you know the going rates for the regular cover, you can make a guess about the going rates for the variant based only on its supply.

 

No, you can't.

 

-J.

Don't tell me what I can do.

 

I done done it.

[SquareChaos]

So the numbers don't appear to tell you anything significant when you combine them together for this issue. None of this is 'revealed' data, they're just data points available elsewhere. I don't see a connection between any of the items, other than your assumption the book isn't a key because of it's low CGC count. For this series, I'd actually argue that it would be considered a key, but that's just me.

I'm not sure why you want me to apply my "modern variant values logic" (topic title) to a book without variants.

 

I don't even understand how a variant in the group would have anything to do with anything.

 

 

I actually agree with Jaydogrules... and that is a rarity.

If you have a variant for a comic... and if that variant is the "preferred" version of that comic... the overall pooled value for that comic sees a shift toward the preferred variant.

 

How much shift is dependent upon both the quantity of the variant and the quantity of the regular.

 

Once you shift the overall dollars toward the variant, you can divide by quantity and get a dollar amount for one copy.

 

There is a way to make sense of ASM #667 Dell'Otto variants using the fact that it's just a regular issue of ASM, that the regular issues of #667 only sell for about $4, but the preferred variant only has 29 copies known.

 

OK, now I follow what you're saying at least. Thank you. That tends to be true (price is a factor of course).

 

But can you say that you can detect this without already knowing the going rates for the variant and regular cover?

I'm saying that when you know the going rates for the regular cover, you can make a guess about the going rates for the variant based only on its supply.

 

I don't believe that personally. That's what I'm saying, I don't think it can tell you anything you don't already know. Now... you can do the *math* as a simple algebraic equation if you know 2 of 3 values, but again, this isn't anything new. And I don't think you know 2 of 3 values here do you?

 

If you look up the supposed print run (a sort of made up number already), then look up CGC values or eBay values for the 'regular' cover, what do you have here? You can get some perceived 'total market value' for the existing cover that you looked up the price for, but then what?

 

[Jaydogrules]

I really don't understand the thrust of this thread either.

 

[snip]

 

7 Obvious Points That Makes This Conversation Pointless/i]

 

[end snip]

 

-J

 

I wondered when you would show up.

 

You don't get it. It's not the first time. See you later.

 

Nice avoidance.

 

-J.

Regular copies of #667 are $4. You didn't include that fact in your 7 Points... so you haven't read my first post.

 

A $4 regular issue and a $9000 variant... if someone were to make a General poll re: is this stupid vs. awesome, the results won't be close. I may be pushed over the edge to do so.

 

Welcome to collecting comic book collecting.

 

Start 100 polls. It won't do anything to affect the value of the ASM 667 either way. It was going for thousands of dollars before you even knew what it was

 

(Just thought I'd put that out there since that appears to be your agenda. )

 

-J.

 

Welcome to a supreme "outlier" (that is a euphemism) sale. No agendas. Feel free to get additional copies for 9.5k Keep alienatin'. Just don't want to see this become a regular occurrence for the whole of the Modern hobby.

 

It won't. We've already figured out the ASM667 is an anomaly. But im sure "the hobby" appreciates your white knight heroics. What's my agenda ? I own a copy. I'm a fan of the artist and the book. I've exhaustively researched this one particular book. I like talking about things I like and own. You evidently like talking about things you don't like and don't own.

 

Odd.

 

-J.

[exitmusicblue]

I just don't see the use of this if it can't tell you something you don't already know. It just seems like an attempt to justify values that already exist, in which case, what's the point?

Yes!

 

I'm attempting to provide a logical justification for modern variant values.

 

"Because that is how much they sell for" isn't good enough for me. That's weak sauce.

 

Because they shift a portion of the overall value for the issue to the variants, and then divide that portion by the quantity available is slightly more palatable... so it might still be weak sauce, but we have identified parts of the recipe.

 

The exercise is a fun one. No one, including the OP, is claiming this is the grand theory of relativity for variants.

[exitmusicblue]

I really don't understand the thrust of this thread either.

 

[snip]

 

7 Obvious Points That Makes This Conversation Pointless/i]

 

[end snip]

 

-J

 

I wondered when you would show up.

 

You don't get it. It's not the first time. See you later.

 

Nice avoidance.

 

-J.

Regular copies of #667 are $4. You didn't include that fact in your 7 Points... so you haven't read my first post.

 

A $4 regular issue and a $9000 variant... if someone were to make a General poll re: is this stupid vs. awesome, the results won't be close. I may be pushed over the edge to do so.

 

Welcome to collecting comic book collecting.

 

Start 100 polls. It won't do anything to affect the value of the ASM 667 either way. It was going for thousands of dollars before you even knew what it was

 

(Just thought I'd put that out there since that appears to be your agenda. )

 

-J.

 

Welcome to a supreme "outlier" (that is a euphemism) sale. No agendas. Feel free to get additional copies for 9.5k Keep alienatin'. Just don't want to see this become a regular occurrence for the whole of the Modern hobby.

 

What's my agenda ? I own a copy. I'm a fan of the artist and the book. I've exhaustively researched this one particular book. I like talking about things I like and own. You evidently like talking about things you don't like and don't own.

 

Odd.

 

-J.

 

I wasn't saying you had an agenda kiddo, was responding to your gazillionth assumption... :-* <3 That's funny, I've also had plenty of praise for things I don't own. And this is a sweet cover/variant, and I'm glad boardies I like such as Lethal Protector own a copy. Trumpeting a baseless 9k sale as the second coming is just boorish, though; haven't seen him do it.

[Jaydogrules]

I really don't understand the thrust of this thread either.

 

[snip]

 

7 Obvious Points That Makes This Conversation Pointless/i]

 

[end snip]

 

-J

 

I wondered when you would show up.

 

You don't get it. It's not the first time. See you later.

 

Nice avoidance.

 

-J.

Regular copies of #667 are $4. You didn't include that fact in your 7 Points... so you haven't read my first post.

 

A $4 regular issue and a $9000 variant... if someone were to make a General poll re: is this stupid vs. awesome, the results won't be close. I may be pushed over the edge to do so.

 

Welcome to collecting comic book collecting.

 

Start 100 polls. It won't do anything to affect the value of the ASM 667 either way. It was going for thousands of dollars before you even knew what it was

 

(Just thought I'd put that out there since that appears to be your agenda. )

 

-J.

 

Welcome to a supreme "outlier" (that is a euphemism) sale. No agendas. Feel free to get additional copies for 9.5k Keep alienatin'. Just don't want to see this become a regular occurrence for the whole of the Modern hobby.

 

What's my agenda ? I own a copy. I'm a fan of the artist and the book. I've exhaustively researched this one particular book. I like talking about things I like and own. You evidently like talking about things you don't like and don't own.

 

Odd.

 

-J.

 

I wasn't saying you had an agenda kiddo, was responding to your gazillionth assumption... :-* <3 That's funny, I also have praise for things I don't own. And this is a sweet cover, and I'm glad boardies I like such as Lethal Protector own a copy. Trumpeting a 9k sale is just boorish, though; haven't seen him do it.

 

Who's "trumpeting"? jsilverjanet started the last thread. Valiantman started this (thinly veiled) sequel thread. And the $9k value was probably at least "based" on the 9.6 sale from last year for $4k and the fact that this was the first top of the census copy offered publicly since early 2013.

 

Still tilting are we?

 

-J.

[SquareChaos]

Which at this rate is well on it's way to being locked too. Can't we ever just have a conversation about things without all of the pettiness?

 

...

 

Had to check and make sure I haven't been petty yet, we're good.

[exitmusicblue]

I really don't understand the thrust of this thread either.

 

[snip]

 

7 Obvious Points That Makes This Conversation Pointless/i]

 

[end snip]

 

-J

 

I wondered when you would show up.

 

You don't get it. It's not the first time. See you later.

 

Nice avoidance.

 

-J.

Regular copies of #667 are $4. You didn't include that fact in your 7 Points... so you haven't read my first post.

 

A $4 regular issue and a $9000 variant... if someone were to make a General poll re: is this stupid vs. awesome, the results won't be close. I may be pushed over the edge to do so.

 

Welcome to collecting comic book collecting.

 

Start 100 polls. It won't do anything to affect the value of the ASM 667 either way. It was going for thousands of dollars before you even knew what it was

 

(Just thought I'd put that out there since that appears to be your agenda. )

 

-J.

 

Welcome to a supreme "outlier" (that is a euphemism) sale. No agendas. Feel free to get additional copies for 9.5k Keep alienatin'. Just don't want to see this become a regular occurrence for the whole of the Modern hobby.

 

What's my agenda ? I own a copy. I'm a fan of the artist and the book. I've exhaustively researched this one particular book. I like talking about things I like and own. You evidently like talking about things you don't like and don't own.

 

Odd.

 

-J.

 

I wasn't saying you had an agenda kiddo, was responding to your gazillionth assumption... :-* <3 That's funny, I also have praise for things I don't own. And this is a sweet cover, and I'm glad boardies I like such as Lethal Protector own a copy. Trumpeting a 9k sale is just boorish, though; haven't seen him do it.

 

Who's "trumpeting"? jsilverjanet started the last thread. Valiantman started this (thinly veiled) sequel thread.

 

-J.

 

If anything, I appreciated you letting Chuck have the last word and just letting the previous thread die. Unfortunately, here we go again...

[exitmusicblue]

Which at this rate is well on it's way to being locked too. Can't we ever just have a conversation about things without all of the pettiness?

 

...

 

Had to check and make sure I haven't been petty yet, we're good.

 

Oh, it was locked... lol

[valiantman]

If you look up the supposed print run (a sort of made up number already), then look up CGC values or eBay values for the 'regular' cover, what do you have here? You can get some perceived 'total market value' for the existing cover that you looked up the price for, but then what?

The print run is approximate, but there aren't 150,000 when Comichron says 15,000... and there aren't 15,000 when Comichron says 150,000. Using those numbers, we're not off by much.

 

As you mentioned, there are only 2 or 3 numbers needed...

 

A) The print run for all the versions of the book

B) The market price for a comparable book without any variants

 

A * B gives you a overall pool of dollars to work with.

 

We need another piece in the equation if there IS a variant... and if the market had any "standard" it might be something like 75% of A * B goes to the regular editions with 25% of A * B for the variants.

 

Let's pretend it's a 75/25 rule.

 

Take a $4 comic with 15,000 copies and no variants... A * B is $60,000

Take a similar comic (same title, next issue, for example) with 15,000 copies, but 500 are variants.

75% of the $60,000 for 14,500 regular editions would estimate the regular edition at $3.10 each.

25% of the $60,000 for the 500 variants would estimate the variant at $30 each.

But the total would still be about $60,000 because that's the standard for that title... even when there are no variants.

 

If the 75/25 rule worked all the time... the whole market could be predictable.

I doubt if that's the case... but there's nothing unusual about the scenario above.

 

Let's say there are 80,000 copies at $4 each, but no variants. That's $320,000.

Let's say the next issue has 80,000 copies, but 500 are variants.

 

75% of the $320,000 goes to the 79,500 regular editions... so they're about $3.02 each.

25% of the $320,000 goes to the 500 variants... so they're about $160 each.

 

All we've used is A, B, and a 75/25 rule.

 

If there are 80,000 copies and only 29 are the preferred variant...

 

75% of the $320,000 goes to the 79,971 regular (non-preferred) editions... so they're about $3 each.

25% of the $320,000 goes to the 29 preferred variants... so they're about $2,750 each.

 

Again, it's just A, B, and a 75/25 rule.

 

I'm not saying 75/25 is the rule... but you can get some consistent results using it... and not much else.

[paul747]

I just don't see the use of this if it can't tell you something you don't already know. It just seems like an attempt to justify values that already exist, in which case, what's the point?

Yes!

 

I'm attempting to provide a logical justification for modern variant values.

 

"Because that is how much they sell for" isn't good enough for me. That's weak sauce.

 

Because they shift a portion of the overall value for the issue to the variants, and then divide that portion by the quantity available is slightly more palatable... so it might still be weak sauce, but we have identified parts of the recipe.

 

Please tell me with your logic or formula what would this variant be worth if there was 81 graded copies. I followed your overall value idea and understand the idea of a systematical approach. kinda valuating books like a stock. I mean everything you are saying holds truth. Key books should hold more value. Supply and demand rule price. Would there not be a resistance level on a non-key's book demand? at what point would #667 reach saturation, I mean a lot of people would not pay $$ for a book just because it was a low print run and a message board "hot topic" with nothing key about it. So how many collectors would demand this book as compared to a key with real volume demand? I personally dont think I could spend thousand on this book just because of the cover, No offense to those that have. (i could if it stays a ghost) I would however spend thousands if it had a popular character first appearance that I really liked.

 

There is a point made above about the bats #608 and the #667 price point. They where almost the same except for the one sale that just happened and the Bats #608 supply definitely is higher.

[SquareChaos]

If you look up the supposed print run (a sort of made up number already), then look up CGC values or eBay values for the 'regular' cover, what do you have here? You can get some perceived 'total market value' for the existing cover that you looked up the price for, but then what?

The print run is approximate, but there aren't 150,000 when Comichron says 15,000... and there aren't 15,000 when Comichron says 150,000. Using those numbers, we're not off by much.

 

As you mentioned, there are only 2 or 3 numbers needed...

 

A) The print run for all the versions of the book

B) The market price for a comparable book without any variants

 

A * B gives you a overall pool of dollars to work with.

 

We need another piece in the equation if there IS a variant... and if the market had any "standard" it might be something like 75% of A * B goes to the regular editions with 25% of A * B for the variants.

 

Let's pretend it's a 75/25 rule.

 

Take a $4 comic with 15,000 copies and no variants... A * B is $60,000

Take a similar comic (same title, next issue, for example) with 15,000 copies, but 500 are variants.

75% of the $60,000 for 14,500 regular editions would estimate the regular edition at $3.10 each.

25% of the $60,000 for the 500 variants would estimate the variant at $30 each.

But the total would still be about $60,000 because that's the standard for that title... even when there are no variants.

 

If the 75/25 rule worked all the time... the whole market could be predictable.

I doubt if that's the case... but there's nothing unusual about the scenario above.

 

Let's say there are 80,000 copies at $4 each, but no variants. That's $320,000.

Let's say the next issue has 80,000 copies, but 500 are variants.

 

75% of the $320,000 goes to the 79,500 regular editions... so they're about $3.02 each.

25% of the $320,000 goes to the 500 variants... so they're about $160 each.

 

All we've used is A, B, and a 75/25 rule.

 

If there are 80,000 copies and only 29 are the preferred variant...

 

75% of the $320,000 goes to the 79,971 regular (non-preferred) editions... so they're about $3 each.

25% of the $320,000 goes to the 29 preferred variants... so they're about $2,750 each.

 

Again, it's just A, B, and a 75/25 rule.

 

Well, I can at least say I understand what you're saying now, so I appreciate you taking the time to go over it after my varied questions, so thanks for that.

[valiantman]

Well, I can at least say I understand what you're saying now, so I appreciate you taking the time to go over it after my varied questions, so thanks for that.

 

I'm of a particular personality type (Myers-Briggs INTP) which requires that I have debates all the time... internally.

 

Your questions have helped me hone the message for myself as well. The A, B, 75/25 explanation is much more useful to me today than the original post (that I can only blame myself for)... though the thoughts have been brewing for years.

 

[valiantman]

Revising my revisions, let's say the key factors are:

 

Total Supply (A)

Normal Demand, assuming no variants exist, in $ (B)

Variant Supply ©

75/25 rule

 

Reasonable Variant Demand Estimate in $ (D)

 

D = A * B * 0.25 / C

 

B is a tricky number if the book is a key issue... it may not have a known "normal demand" (assuming no variants)

 

 

 

[exitmusicblue]

Revising my revisions, let's say the key factors are:

 

Total Supply (A)

Normal Demand in $ (B)

Variant Supply ©

75/25 rule

 

Reasonable Variant Demand Estimate in $ (D)

 

D = A * B * 0.25 / C

 

 

 

Holy sky here come the equations !

[valiantman]

Please tell me with your logic or formula what would this variant be worth if there was 81 graded copies.

 

Revising my revisions, let's say the key factors are:

 

Total Supply (A)

Normal Demand, assuming no variants exist, in $ (B)

Variant Supply ©

75/25 rule

 

Reasonable Variant Demand Estimate in $ (D)

 

D = A * B * 0.25 / C

 

B is a tricky number if the book is a key issue... it may not have a known "normal demand" (assuming no variants)

A = 80,000

B = $4

C = 81

 

D = 80,000 * $4 * 0.25 / 81 = $988

 

This assumes that all copies of ASM #667 would be $4 each if there were only 80,000 regular editions and no variants.

 

If a better assumption is that they would be $6 or $8, then B needs to be adjusted.

[SquareChaos]

Playing along, you should build in a factor where the increased cost of the variant makes it less desirable to a large percentage of the population.

 

This is true in most things, as cost increases, downward pressure is applied as the total market shrinks.

 

Your simple formula will need to get much, much more complicated to have a chance at modeling anything, even on a 'fun and games' level. Lots of work!

[valiantman]

Playing along, you should build in a factor where the increased cost of the variant makes it less desirable to a large percentage of the population.

 

This is true in most things, as cost increases, downward pressure is applied as the total market shrinks.

 

Your simple formula will need to get much, much more complicated to have a chance at modeling anything, even on a 'fun and games' level. Lots of work!

I'm not hoping for Black-Scholes revisions here.

[Jaydogrules]

Playing along, you should build in a factor where the increased cost of the variant makes it less desirable to a large percentage of the population.

 

This is true in most things, as cost increases, downward pressure is applied as the total market shrinks.

 

Your simple formula will need to get much, much more complicated to have a chance at modeling anything, even on a 'fun and games' level. Lots of work!

 

And then he would need a factor for how many slabs are actually available on the open market at the given time (the current equation seems to be accounting for an unrealistic scenario of all slabs being available at once), and how long it has been between slab offerings, also accounting for grade, as that will also affect price (as a lack of inventory can heighten demand and thus prices realized).

 

Oh wait , never mind. That would just take us back to the good old fashioned "supply and demand" principal all over again.

 

I'm definitely no math whiz, but I don't even know what we're talking about anymore.

 

-J.