Modern variant values... finding the logic?

[exitmusicblue]

Hey, what's "simple" to you guys, is to the rest of us...

 

- humanities major, recovering antitrust attorney

[aerischan]

To be perfectly honest, all I see are made up numbers and lotsa assumptions.

[DWL]

Playing along, you should build in a factor where the increased cost of the variant makes it less desirable to a large percentage of the population.

 

This is true in most things, as cost increases, downward pressure is applied as the total market shrinks.

 

Your simple formula will need to get much, much more complicated to have a chance at modeling anything, even on a 'fun and games' level. Lots of work!

I'm not hoping for Black-Scholes revisions here.

 

This is an interesting discussion. There is utility in taking a quantitative approach to understanding the market but Square Chaos is alluding to an aspect that has not be discussed yet, who is actually buying these books? And for what purpose(s)? Is it speculators or those who feel the need for all possible copies including all variants? If it is the latter, how big a group are they in relation to other collectors?

[MK Ultra]

I think the problem is attempting to proffer rationalization to a collectible. All collectibles are based on the greater fools theory. It's tough to apply IMHO.

 

Let's look at sports cards. Topps just released the Transcendent Baseball card set. 65 sets made and priced at $25K each.

http://www.sportscollectorsdaily.com/transcendent-collection-is-topps-ultimate-high-end-product/

 

They hadn't issued something like that before, but the prices of factory sets, wax, etc. didn't move since the markets are different.

 

Look at eTopps cards. The first regular year, 2001, had issues that were short printed, Tony Banks had 186 copies and was the most expensive b/c of that. The rookies like Brees and Tomlinson never got close to what Tony Banks was. The interest died and prices plummeted. Part of the death of the interest was the market manipulation.

 

Look at the Hunt brothers when they tried to corner the silver market. Prices for silver had moved in similar patterns to gold. But when they bought up supplies, it spiked. When they were done it was back to the normal ratio. Lately it's been in flux.

 

 

I think those examples illustrate that the whims of the market can't be measured by a formula. I don't know much about this ASM variant, [joke] but I just follow what I collect rules and what others collect sucks.[/joke]

 

after rereading, it wasn't obvious. Multitasking fail.

[exitmusicblue]

I think the problem is attempting to proffer rationalization to a collectible. All collectibles are based on the greater fools theory. It's tough to apply IMHO.

 

Let's look at sports cards. Topps just released the Transcendent Baseball card set. 65 sets made and priced at $25K each.

http://www.sportscollectorsdaily.com/transcendent-collection-is-topps-ultimate-high-end-product/

 

They hadn't issued something like that before, but the prices of factory sets, wax, etc. didn't move since the markets are different.

 

Look at eTopps cards. The first regular year, 2001, had issues that were short printed, Tony Banks had 186 copies and was the most expensive b/c of that. The rookies like Brees and Tomlinson never got close to what Tony Banks was. The interest died and prices plummeted. Part of the death of the interest was the market manipulation.

 

Look at the Hunt brothers when they tried to corner the silver market. Prices for silver had moved in similar patterns to gold. But when they bought up supplies, it spiked. When they were done it was back to the normal ratio. Lately it's been in flux.

 

 

I think those examples illustrate that the whims of the market can't be measured by a formula. I don't know much about this ASM variant, but I just follow what I collect rules and what others collect sucks.

 

Sums up the sports card hobby right there, lmao...

 

 

[valiantman]

I think there's a way to easily incorporate the formula for CGC books where we've got GPA data.

 

Total Supply (A)

Normal Demand in $ (B)

Variant Supply ©

75/25 rule

 

Reasonable Variant Demand Estimate in $ (D)

 

D = A * B * 0.25 / C

 

For Hulk #181, looking only at CGC 9.4 and above on the CGC Census, we could consider CGC 9.8 as the "preferred variant" in that supply.

 

A = 735 universal copies CGC 9.4+

B = $5,900 for "normal demand" (the average grade in A is CGC 9.52)

C = 97 copies graded 9.8+

 

D = 735 * $5900 * 0.25 / 97 = $11,177 average for CGC 9.8+ Hulk #181

[SquareChaos]

Now try Rat Queens #1, it has a 1:10 Staples variant.

 

And Walking Dead #1 - white & black.

[SquareChaos]

Playing along, you should build in a factor where the increased cost of the variant makes it less desirable to a large percentage of the population.

 

This is true in most things, as cost increases, downward pressure is applied as the total market shrinks.

 

Your simple formula will need to get much, much more complicated to have a chance at modeling anything, even on a 'fun and games' level. Lots of work!

I'm not hoping for Black-Scholes revisions here.

 

This is an interesting discussion. There is utility in taking a quantitative approach to understanding the market but Square Chaos is alluding to an aspect that has not be discussed yet, who is actually buying these books? And for what purpose(s)? Is it speculators or those who feel the need for all possible copies including all variants? If it is the latter, how big a group are they in relation to other collectors?

 

I have a hobbyist background in economics, so I could probably dredge up a number of other factors we could tweak things on, but really, I think most of us are just treating this formula scenario as a fun time, not something really serious.

 

There have been a lot of discussions, especially over the last two years, in the modern forum about this and I think the conclusion (in no way scientific) Is we're dealing with a small number of collectors who have to catch em all, and in general, have more expendable income than most. The rest of the owners are those that got in on the ground floor - a likely larger number of people than the first group.

[valiantman]

Now try Rat Queens #1, it has a 1:10 Staples variant.

Rat Queens #1

 

A = 23,000

B = $10 (raw)

C = 2,300

 

D = 23000 * $10 * 0.25 / 2300 = $25 for the 1:10 variant (raw)

[valiantman]

Now try Walking Dead #1 - white & black.

We need to know the ratio of White to Black... do we know it?

[SquareChaos]

Now try Walking Dead #1 - white & black.

We need to know the ratio of White to Black... do we know it?

 

No one knows exactly as it was actually a printing problem. I'm curious to see something 50/50, with no real 'cover preference' in effect. That's what I was going for.

[valiantman]

Now try Walking Dead #1 - white & black.

We need to know the ratio of White to Black... do we know it?

 

No one knows exactly as it was actually a printing problem. I'm curious to see something 50/50, with no real 'cover preference' in effect. That's what I was going for.

If there's no cover preference, then the formula gives the same result for White that it would give for Black, regardless what numbers you put in. The price is 50/50 if the cover is 50/50.

 

How did I do on Rat Queens #1?

[SquareChaos]

Now try Walking Dead #1 - white & black.

We need to know the ratio of White to Black... do we know it?

 

No one knows exactly as it was actually a printing problem. I'm curious to see something 50/50, with no real 'cover preference' in effect. That's what I was going for.

If there's no cover preference, then the formula gives the same result for White that it would give for Black, regardless what numbers you put in. The price is 50/50 if the cover is 50/50.

 

How did I do on Rat Queens #1?

 

I thought there was a constant value to denote a variant pulling away from a regular cover. This isn't so much a formula as a heuristic maybe.

 

The Rat Queens #1 wasn't bad, it seems to go for $25 - $50 based on the (raw) condition, so you had the floor at least.

[shadroch]

As I sit on my patio, I am observing some clouds. If I stare at them long enough, I will be able to make out patterns. Some clouds will vaguely look like sheep. Some with look like people, some with look like islands.

As someone else looks at the same cloud from fifty miles away, he will make different observations of the same cloud. What I think looks like a sheep, he thinks it looks like a clock. We are both seeing patterns that don't really exist. It's human nature.

And those are my thoughts on pooled values.

Youngblood 1 has a bazillion copies out there. Does that make it a better book to own than Secret Defenders 1?

[MK Ultra]

As I sit on my patio, I am observing some clouds. If I stare at them long enough, I will be able to make out patterns. Some clouds will vaguely look like sheep. Some with look like people, some with look like islands.

As someone else looks at the same cloud from fifty miles away, he will make different observations of the same cloud. What I think looks like a sheep, he thinks it looks like a clock. We are both seeing patterns that don't really exist. It's human nature.

And those are my thoughts on pooled values.

Youngblood 1 has a bazillion copies out there. Does that make it a better book to own than Secret Defenders 1?

 

Did you leave Buffalo WWings already?

[valiantman]

As I sit on my patio, I am observing some clouds. If I stare at them long enough, I will be able to make out patterns. Some clouds will vaguely look like sheep. Some with look like people, some with look like islands.

As someone else looks at the same cloud from fifty miles away, he will make different observations of the same cloud. What I think looks like a sheep, he thinks it looks like a clock. We are both seeing patterns that don't really exist. It's human nature.

If you could calculate the total water content of that cloud, it wouldn't matter what shape you see or how far away someone else is.

 

And those are my thoughts on pooled values.

Actual water content of the cloud is my thought on pooled values.

 

Youngblood 1 has a bazillion copies out there. Does that make it a better book to own than Secret Defenders 1?

It might be a better book to own every copy of Youngblood 1 than owning every copy of Secret Defenders #1. We're talking about the pooled values.

 

A) is total supply

B) is normal value

 

More A doesn't always win because there's B.

[Mercury Man]

I think it's simpler than that.

 

Example: 29 people own a CGC Modern Variant. Word on the street is this was printed/distributed to unheard of low levels. So, now a few completist's and some speculators catch wind, and suddenly one comes up for auction, and wham, huge sale price because somebody had to have it.

 

Fact of the matter is, this is not a key book in comic lexicon, and 99% of collectors don't want it (unless they stumble upon it for dirt cheap and flip it- aka the speculators), aren't looking for it, and are amazed that 1% of you are exchanging that kind of cash. Thousands of collectors who spend $9K on a comic book want blue chip Gold/Silver/Bronze Age books. Your variant chasing pool is much smaller, and eventually you will run out of dance partners. Sell now, sell high, and don't look back at the fool that you sold it to.

 

[valiantman]

I think it's simpler than that.

 

Example: 29 people own a CGC Modern Variant. Word on the street is this was printed/distributed to unheard of low levels. So, now a few completist's and some speculators catch wind, and suddenly one comes up for auction, and wham, huge sale price because somebody had to have it.

Right, but why didn't it sell for $90,000? If there's no logic, it could sell for $900,000 or $9,000,000. It "only" sold for $9,000... and I see a way, despite my own preferences, that it could easily be calculated to be worth at least $2,750 in average condition.

 

Find more copies, and that calculation changes... but it currently is what it is.

 

Fact of the matter is, this is not a key book in comic lexicon, and 99% of collectors don't want it (unless they stumble upon it for dirt cheap and flip it- aka the speculators), aren't looking for it, and are amazed that 1% of you are exchanging that kind of cash. Thousands of collectors who spend $9K on a comic book want blue chip Gold/Silver/Bronze Age books. Your variant chasing pool is much smaller, and eventually you will run out of dance partners. Sell now, sell high, and don't look back at the fool that you sold it to.

Only 30 people need to want it when there are 29. That is 99.997% of a million collectors not wanting it.

[SquareChaos]

One point of note... we don't even really have any hard evidence that the $9,000 sale happened (as far as I know). It was a private deal.

 

The documented data we have is around half that price, for whatever that is worth. Even then, most have a problem reconciling it.

 

It just is what it is, I argue you can't really justify it... for instance, considering this formula, lets say the last successful sale was $4,500... and then the very next one goes for $9,000. I mean, how does that make much sense? :shrug:

 

People have money, people see something they want, people buy it for the price it is available at. I just read in modern where someone attempted to buy a $5,000 modern variant using PayPal credit. Buyers like that are probably not the most financially sound.

[Jaydogrules]

There seem to be a couple of tiny voices attempting to speak for very large amounts of people.

 

So let me clear things up for you:

 

Just a couple copies of the ASM 667 (we are talking about that again I see) come up for sale publicly a year. Whenever they do- and I mean, whenever- it's a feeding frenzy. 50+ views an hour on ebay, hundreds of watchers in a matter of hours, multiple offers and bids from people who are looking to perhaps complete a run, add a rare trophy piece to their collection, or what ever reason they collect (I don't pretend to know why every collector collects what they collect as a few are purporting to do around here). If you have watched the rare appearances of this book (as I have) you would know that. If you researched this book (as I have) going back to the Spring 2012, you would have seen the chatter and what was brewing. Maybe you would have bought one then if you liked it. Maybe you wouldn't have. Not really the point though, is it? There are other buyers and collectors out there that aren't you. That have more money than you. They collect things that you don't and are willing to pay top dollar for top copies of books. Go figure? There are many, many books that I don't personally understand why they sell for what they do. Some of them are in the GA. Some in the SA. Many in the BA and CA. Why so much money for easy to find books ? Some collectors (many collectors in fact) of the MA prize rarity above all else. We have CGC to partially thank for that. We also have the internet to thank. It is pretty easy to see what is legitimately rare and what isn't. "The market" decides what is prioritized. That a Spider-Man comic that's part of the flagship title's core run has so few copies accounted for or ever offered for sale anywhere would be highly coveted should be of no surprise to anyone. At least not to anyone who really does have the heart of a collector and can relate to that burning, festering need that can develop when you simply "must" have something- the thrill of the hunt, the rapture of the conquest, the pride of having something in your hands that few collectors will ever even see in person....

 

That, my friends, is what people pay for. And that cannot be quantified with cute equations and "logic".

 

-J.