THE SUICIDE SQUAD directed by James Gunn (2021) 3 3

[theCapraAegagrus]

On 8/9/2021 at 10:28 AM, D84 said:

I found the character and his performance so uninteresting that HBO Max would have to pay me to watch the series.

There's no way in Hel that I'm watching the Peacemaker series.

[Bosco685]

Breakout star of the year that nobody saw coming - other than Polka Dot Man

[WolverineX]

On 8/9/2021 at 10:28 AM, D84 said:

I found the character and his performance so uninteresting that HBO Max would have to pay me to watch the series.

 

On 8/9/2021 at 10:31 AM, theCapraAegagrus said:

There's no way in Hel that I'm watching the Peacemaker series.

 

On 8/9/2021 at 10:27 AM, Broke as a Joke said:

A silly dumb movie.  2 out of 5. So over the top in terms of violent scenes that it fell flat.  Cena should go back to wrestling, he's an awful actor.  I'm glad Disney won't let Gunn do an R Guardians movie because this would be the type of garbage we would get.

Agreed.  Cena played such a hateful character.  No idea why anyone would watch a show on him.  Rather a show on the shark

[Bird]

On 8/9/2021 at 11:36 AM, Wolverinex said:

 

 

Agreed.  Cena played such a hateful character.  No idea why anyone would watch a show on him.  Rather a show on the shark

I will NOT be watching but I imagine the show will play off the final words Flagg spoke to him.

[Bosco685]

On 8/9/2021 at 12:25 PM, Bird said:

I will NOT be watching but I imagine the show will play off the final words Flagg spoke to him.

I think that sounds right.

But he was so reprehensible I don't know how they pull this off.

[D84]

On 8/9/2021 at 11:55 AM, Bosco685 said:

I think that sounds right.

But he was so reprehensible I don't know how they pull this off.

It won't be by John Cena's acting.

[Bosco685]

On 8/9/2021 at 1:00 PM, D84 said:

It won't be by John Cena's acting.

But will we know?

[D84]

On 8/9/2021 at 12:01 PM, Bosco685 said:

But will we know?

That's his best performance so far.

[Gatsby77]

On 8/9/2021 at 7:02 AM, Bosco685 said:

You have even noted previously a film must do at least 3.0X production budget to be successful.

Current results: 

Assumed results: We'll wrap in the supposed $60M premium access it received.

Although there have been two other financial misses previously in the MCU (The Incredible Hulk, Captain America: The First Avenger), this is a case of...

 

?

So...you're calling the highest grossing theatrical release in 1.5 years a "bomb?" I think our definition's of that word differ.

And did I state 3.0x? 

Doubtful, although I may have done so in one of JayDog's rants that a film had to do 4.5x theatrical in order to recoup stated budgets plus all marketing expenses. Which was hogwash, of course, because it failed to account for all post-theatrical revenue.

10 years ago, the standard for profitability was just 2.0x. And the shorthand was - if it made its budget back in domestic theatrical alone, it was profitable - as foreign sales and post-theatrical would make up the difference.

Now it's definitely more like 2.5x or better - but that shift is due both to China's increased prominence (and only 25% theatrical take) and increased marketing spend.

But - and you know this better than anyone - the true answer is "it depends."

So - as @paperheartdid in the other thread, let's break this down for Black Widow, shall we?

Domestic so far: $174.4 million (x 60%) = $104.4 million to the studio

Foreign so far: $185.4 million (x 40%) = $74.1 million to the studio

China so far: $0 (x 25%) = $0 to the studio

Streaming (known): $60 million (x 85%) = $51 million to the studio

Total: $229.5 million directly to Disney vs. a stated $200 million production budget.

Conclusion: It's easily going to break even and/or turn a slight profit for the studio.

Compare it to some recent *actual* bombs:

• Snake Eyes (will lose Paramount $60-$80M)
• Jungle Cruise (will lose Disney $50-$75M)
• The Suicide Squad (will lose Warner Bros. $90-$110M)
• Space Jam 2 (will lose Warner Bros. $100M+)

Normally I'm not one to engage in "whataboutism" but in a summer where we've seen many high-profile films *actually* bomb, using that term to describe Black Widow's mere underperformance when it's on track to make a profit, is just...odd.

[Bosco685]

On 8/9/2021 at 1:18 PM, Gatsby77 said:

?

So...you're calling the highest grossing theatrical release in 1.5 years a "bomb?" I think our definition's of that word differ.

And did I state 3.0x? 

Doubtful, although I may have done so in one of JayDog's rants that a film had to do 4.5x theatrical in order to recoup stated budgets plus all marketing expenses. Which was hogwash, of course, because it failed to account for all post-theatrical revenue.

Spoiler

10 years ago, the standard for profitability was just 2.0x. And the shorthand was - if it made its budget back in domestic theatrical alone, it was profitable - as foreign sales and post-theatrical would make up the difference.

Now it's definitely more like 2.5x or better - but that shift is due both to China's increased prominence (and only 25% theatrical take) and increased marketing spend.

But - and you know this better than anyone - the true answer is "it depends."

So - as @paperheartdid in the other thread, let's break this down for Black Widow, shall we?

Domestic so far: $174.4 million (x 60%) = $104.4 million to the studio

Foreign so far: $185.4 million (x 40%) = $74.1 million to the studio

China so far: $0 (x 25%) = $0 to the studio

Streaming (known): $60 million (x 85%) = $51 million to the studio

Total: $229.5 million directly to Disney vs. a stated $200 million production budget.

Conclusion: It's easily going to break even and/or turn a slight profit for the studio.

Compare it to some recent *actual* bombs:

• Snake Eyes (will lose Paramount $60-$80M)
• Jungle Cruise (will lose Disney $50-$75M)
• The Suicide Squad (will lose Warner Bros. $90-$110M)
• Space Jam 2 (will lose Warner Bros. $100M+)

Normally I'm not one to engage in "whataboutism" but in a summer where we've seen many high-profile films *actually* bomb, using that term to describe Black Widow's mere underperformance when it's on track to make a profit, is just...odd.

 

Hi. I'd like to introduce you to this other fellow. Maybe you two have chatted previously?

Bloodshot thread

On 3/9/2020 at 6:05 PM, Gatsby77 said:

To be fair, our boy Scott Mendelson (Forbes) notes that Bloodshot need only do $120 million or so *globally* to be a hit for Sony and warrant a sequel.

Since it supposedly only cost $40-$45 million to make.

(What? What's that I hear? 3.0x production budget??)

And Vin Diesel's non-Fast & the Furious films have all done better overseas.

So the hope is for a $40-$50 million domestic total & $110-$130 million worldwide.

Even so, coming in 3rd or 4th on opening weekend isn't good optics from a Valiant Universe perspective.

Though I agree with you the assumption a film must make a ridiculous multiple to be successful was way out in left field. No wonder why he declares so many films an 'instant failure'.

Now as far as Black Widow ballpark figures on a napkin, where is the marketing budget spread over 1.5 years that had 3 false starts before it landed a final release date? That is not a normal situation, and it does grow over time as this occurs. Or did you ignore that?

Edited August 9, 2021 by Bosco685

[Aman619]

meh.   took me three sittings to get through it.  and it wasn't problem stopping cause I was never riveted by what I was seeing that I needed to stay glued to watching it.  At least I could stream for free and not pay $29 to rent it like BW.   SS just felt like a lot of little scenes strung together.  Though it did all come together at the end to fight Starro, which I never thought would be a comics movie character.  too violent too, like that last Rambo movie.  After seeing him, and surgeries defeat hordes of bad guys movie after movie, it feels silly and unnecessary to see heads and bodies explode and get chopped up repeatedly for 2 hours.

[Aman619]

also ZERO movies will be recouping their costs until theaters are all open again and people feel safe going back.  Just impossible now which is why so few movies are being released... why spend 100s of millions just to throw it out there and get so little $$$ back?  You only get ONE chance to open a movie wide.

 

[drotto]

On 8/9/2021 at 1:18 PM, Gatsby77 said:

?

So...you're calling the highest grossing theatrical release in 1.5 years a "bomb?" I think our definition's of that word differ.

And did I state 3.0x? 

Doubtful, although I may have done so in one of JayDog's rants that a film had to do 4.5x theatrical in order to recoup stated budgets plus all marketing expenses. Which was hogwash, of course, because it failed to account for all post-theatrical revenue.

10 years ago, the standard for profitability was just 2.0x. And the shorthand was - if it made its budget back in domestic theatrical alone, it was profitable - as foreign sales and post-theatrical would make up the difference.

Now it's definitely more like 2.5x or better - but that shift is due both to China's increased prominence (and only 25% theatrical take) and increased marketing spend.

But - and you know this better than anyone - the true answer is "it depends."

So - as @paperheartdid in the other thread, let's break this down for Black Widow, shall we?

Domestic so far: $174.4 million (x 60%) = $104.4 million to the studio

Foreign so far: $185.4 million (x 40%) = $74.1 million to the studio

China so far: $0 (x 25%) = $0 to the studio

Streaming (known): $60 million (x 85%) = $51 million to the studio

Total: $229.5 million directly to Disney vs. a stated $200 million production budget.

Conclusion: It's easily going to break even and/or turn a slight profit for the studio.

Compare it to some recent *actual* bombs:

• Snake Eyes (will lose Paramount $60-$80M)
• Jungle Cruise (will lose Disney $50-$75M)
• The Suicide Squad (will lose Warner Bros. $90-$110M)
• Space Jam 2 (will lose Warner Bros. $100M+)

Normally I'm not one to engage in "whataboutism" but in a summer where we've seen many high-profile films *actually* bomb, using that term to describe Black Widow's mere underperformance when it's on track to make a profit, is just...odd.

So are current standards for doing well are the movie may not lose the studio money.  Good to know.

[Bosco685]

On 8/9/2021 at 1:42 PM, drotto said:

So are current standards for doing well are the movie may not lose the studio money.  Good to know.

This back-of-napkin analysis does not account for:

• Revenue-sharing agreements (though Scarlett Johansson won't have to worry about that for now)
• Marketing Budget spread out across four release date announcements (June 29, 2021; May 7, 2021; November 6, 2020; May 1, 2020)
• Assumes premiere access was $60M which Disney announced once the dropoff was significant at the box office

But none of that counts when you need to make a movie look positive. Or what some would refer to as 'honest accounting practices'. 

[paperheart]

On 8/9/2021 at 10:18 AM, Gatsby77 said:

?

So...you're calling the highest grossing theatrical release in 1.5 years a "bomb?" I think our definition's of that word differ.

And did I state 3.0x? 

Doubtful, although I may have done so in one of JayDog's rants that a film had to do 4.5x theatrical in order to recoup stated budgets plus all marketing expenses. Which was hogwash, of course, because it failed to account for all post-theatrical revenue.

10 years ago, the standard for profitability was just 2.0x. And the shorthand was - if it made its budget back in domestic theatrical alone, it was profitable - as foreign sales and post-theatrical would make up the difference.

Now it's definitely more like 2.5x or better - but that shift is due both to China's increased prominence (and only 25% theatrical take) and increased marketing spend.

But - and you know this better than anyone - the true answer is "it depends."

So - as @paperheartdid in the other thread, let's break this down for Black Widow, shall we?

Domestic so far: $174.4 million (x 60%) = $104.4 million to the studio

Foreign so far: $185.4 million (x 40%) = $74.1 million to the studio

China so far: $0 (x 25%) = $0 to the studio

Streaming (known): $60 million (x 85%) = $51 million to the studio

Total: $229.5 million directly to Disney vs. a stated $200 million production budget.

Conclusion: It's easily going to break even and/or turn a slight profit for the studio.

Compare it to some recent *actual* bombs:

• Snake Eyes (will lose Paramount $60-$80M)
• Jungle Cruise (will lose Disney $50-$75M)
• The Suicide Squad (will lose Warner Bros. $90-$110M)
• Space Jam 2 (will lose Warner Bros. $100M+)

Normally I'm not one to engage in "whataboutism" but in a summer where we've seen many high-profile films *actually* bomb, using that term to describe Black Widow's mere underperformance when it's on track to make a profit, is just...odd.

FWIW,

Samba TV has provided an update on the number of U.S. Smart TV terrestrial households that have tuned into Disney+ Premier’s Black Widow, with a running cumulative U.S. household viewership of 2 million.

Last weekend, Samba TV reported that 1.1M U.S. households bought Black Widow in its first weekend. That means an additional 900,000 households bought the Scarlett Johansson film from Monday, July 12 through the pic’s second weekend ending July 18.

[Bosco685]

On 8/9/2021 at 2:07 PM, paperheart said:

FWIW,

Samba TV has provided an update on the number of U.S. Smart TV terrestrial households that have tuned into Disney+ Premier’s Black Widow, with a running cumulative U.S. household viewership of 2 million.

Last weekend, Samba TV reported that 1.1M U.S. households bought Black Widow in its first weekend. That means an additional 900,000 households bought the Scarlett Johansson film from Monday, July 12 through the pic’s second weekend ending July 18.

Quote

Samba TV has provided an update on the number of U.S. Smart TV terrestrial households that have tuned into Disney+ Premier’s Black Widow, with a running cumulative U.S. household viewership of 2 million.

 

Last weekend, Samba TV reported that 1.1M U.S. households bought Black Widow in its first weekend. That means an additional 900,000 households bought the Scarlett Johansson film from Monday, July 12 through the pic’s second weekend ending July 18.

 

Disney did not report any update on the performance of Black Widow on Disney+ Premier after its first weekend exclamation that the pic took in $60M worldwide on the service, a bulk of which came reportedly from U.S. purchases.

 

Samba TV measures streaming viewership in 3 million Smart TV terrestrial households that tune in to a piece of content for five minutes. Samba’s sample poll doesn’t include mobile viewers. While these Disney+ Premier numbers on Black Widow aren’t complete, in back-of-the-napkin estimates it indicates that the U.S. Disney+ Premier revenue for the film is estimated to be at least $59.98M to date in Samba TV households.

It was how Deadline was able to determine the $60M revenue before Disney announced it. FWIW

[vheflin]

On 8/9/2021 at 2:20 PM, Bosco685 said:

It was how Deadline was able to determine the $60M revenue before Disney announced it. FWIW

no wonder it bombed, they went in expecting black widow but got white widow instead.

 

[Bosco685]

Although Samba is a very cool reference point, different sites are quoting its data source at various stages leading to confusion. Which is how Yahoo and others learned a hard lesson, and Samba's SR Director of Data Science had to correct this without embarrassing his data consumer customers.

I would not want his job.

[paperheart]

On 8/9/2021 at 11:20 AM, Bosco685 said:

It was how Deadline was able to determine the $60M revenue before Disney announced it. FWIW

uh, no. Disney announced the $60MM from Disney+ on July 11th, the Samba second weekend update was on July 19th.

Here's what Samba reported on July 12th:

Samba TV, which measures 3M U.S. TV households, reports that 1.1M tuned into Disney+ for Marvel’s Black Widow this past weekend. That translates into $32.989M, based on a price of $29.99 to Disney+ subscribers, and it’s a number that lines up with Disney’s reported PVOD data yesterday on the MCU title.

Edited August 9, 2021 by paperheart

[Bosco685]

On 8/9/2021 at 2:49 PM, paperheart said:

uh, no. Disney announced the $60MM from Disney+ on July 11th, the Samba second weekend update was on July 19th.

Here's what Samba reported on July 12th:

Samba TV, which measures 3M U.S. TV households, reports that 1.1M tuned into Disney+ for Marvel’s Black Widow this past weekend. That translates into $32.989M, based on a price of $29.99 to Disney+ subscribers, and it’s a number that lines up with Disney’s reported PVOD data yesterday on the MCU title.

Black Widow streaming figures top 2 million in U.S. households; estimated $59.98 million domestic gross

Quote

In the wake of a steep -67.3% second week drop at the domestic box-office for Black Widow, which led to some theatre chains openly criticising Disney’s dual platform release strategy for its pandemic delayed blockbuster, Samba TV have released an update on the number of household’s accessing Scarlett Johansson’s MCU swansong on Disney+ Premier.

 

According to Deadline the running total for Black Widow has hit 2 million viewers, which they estimate to have generated $59.98 million. Disney didn’t provide any additional figures following their initial announcement of a $60M Disney+ Premier worldwide gross from the films opening weekend. Black Widow‘s current theatrical cume stands at $232 million worldwide.

It was a validation of the $60M leading to the declaration on July 20 the worldwide total was $232M

Uh