Why comic OA is better than fine art 1 1

[PhilipB2k17]

1 hour ago, BCarter27 said:

Probably this. I think the "lifting up" effect of B and C pieces caused by A-level outliers will go away first.

 

Exactly. I did collect a small group or high grade Silver DC in high school, but those were sold first about 2-3 years ago (thankfully?). The rest is not drek, but the definition of drek has expanded to include (and I'm not joking) anything printed post-1985. That's 30 years of comics that are barely worth anything.

In a way, it is a mirror of all of the moms who tossed their kids' comics in the 50s. I have a small voice in the back of my mind that wonders if there will be a small retracement in about 20 years when all of this modern "drek" will be seen as the last gasp of print and be coveted (see vinyl collecting). But even then, that current comics readership will not support object collecting. It will be a small subset.

How many of us started buying back issues because we were missing a piece of a story we wanted to read? And how many of us piled up a run and didn't read it until we found that last missing issue? That's how reader collectors were born. And digital killed all of that.

Keep in mind the original print runs on comics has declined significantly. So, where there used to be 200,000 copies of a book, more than half of which were stored in a bag and comic box,' now there may only be 10-15K copies of that book. So, it's possible the more recent lower print run stuff might pick up value at some point. But, I still see multiple copies of X-Men #1 in every long Box I look through. There were like 5 million+ copies of that printed.

[ComicConnoisseur]

6 minutes ago, PhilipB2k17 said:

Keep in mind the original print runs on comics has declined significantly. So, where there used to be 200,000 copies of a book, more than half of which were stored in a bag and comic box,' now there may only be 10-15K copies of that book. So, it's possible the more recent lower print run stuff might pick up value at some point. But, I still see multiple copies of X-Men #1 in every long Box I look through. There were like 5 million+ copies of that printed.

That an interesting thing you bring up about rarity, and I am on the fence about.

 An example is you can pick up 60 year old goldenage funny animal and western comics all day on Ebay for under $10,while there are modern variant keys that came out much later that go for much more than that.

So those GA westerns and funny animals are much rarer,but yet those modern variants comics are more valuable and sought after.

Very interesting on how the hobby has changed recently.

In other words someone could have held onto those GA westerns and funny animals comics for over sixty years,yet last months variant is worth more than them.

This market change has me perplexed.

 

[PhilipB2k17]

17 minutes ago, ComicConnoisseur said:

That an interesting thing you bring up about rarity, and I am on the fence about.

 An example is you can pick up 60 year old goldenage funny animal and western comics all day on Ebay for under $10,while there are modern variant keys that came out much later that go for much more than that.

So those GA westerns and funny animals are much rarer,but yet those modern variants comics are more valuable and sought after.

Very interesting on how the hobby has changed recently.

In other words someone could have held onto those GA westerns and funny animals comics for over sixty years,yet last months variant is worth more than them.

This market change has me perplexed.

 

Well, a 1:20 variant cover on a comic with a 15,000 print run means that there are only 750 copies of that variant. Keep in mind that GA print runs for comics were pretty enormous. Especially the funny animal or Dell books. The only reason they are scarce at all is due to age, storage practices and because few people valued them as much. Although, I suspect a lot of those kiddie type books got kept more often than the sperhero ones, and were handed down to each new generation of kids.

In any case, I don't think a lot of the modern hot variant books will retain their inflated values in the longer term.

[delekkerste]

1 hour ago, suspense39 said:

I've experienced OA becoming slightly less liquid as prices go up, at least in collector to collector transactions

Yeah, I have found that it is very difficult to get all-cash deals done these days without going to the auction block. 

[delekkerste]

7 hours ago, ComicConnoisseur said:

Good point.

I think these Millennials/Gen Z are actually going to do good moneywise. A lot of them are quite tech savy,and a lot of them are educated. I think a lot of people are underestimating Millennials/Gen Z and their future buying power.

It almost certainly won't happen.  Asset valuations are so high now that Millennials/Gen Z will not get the outsized returns that the Boomers and Gen X did on their investments (which has been a huge contributor to their wealth and buying power).  Globalization, technological changes (including automation), etc. are now a foot on the neck of job creation and wage growth; education and tech skills aren't what they used to be when you've got access to millions and millions of Chinese and Indians with those qualifications and skills willing to work for less (not to mention that AI may eventually render a lot of these tech skills obsolete).  Trend growth is not what it used to be either when the broad, long-term macro trends were more positive.  At some point, both tax rates and interest rates will likely become headwinds instead of the tailwinds they've been for the past few decades. 

And, even without ANY of that, the fact that interests have been splintered in an infinite number of directions over the past 20-25 years due to the explosion of content and communications, is enough on its own to ensure there will be fewer buyers for just about any particular category in the future than we would have had without the long-term trend disruption we've experienced since about the mid-1990s. 

 

[The Voord]

16 hours ago, delekkerste said:

Yeah, I have found that it is very difficult to get all-cash deals done these days without going to the auction block. 

I've no doubt that most collectors, nowadays, look towards the big auction houses for their buying options (and the buzz generated by the auction scenario).  I've always done okay for myself either selling privately, or consigning to notable dealers. , but that's no longer the case for the most part.  I'll probably go the auction route next year.  Now's a good time for me to sell-off parts of my comic-book OA collection due to the exchange rate between the $ and the £ working in my favour!

I wonder how all this plays out for dealers . . . are they beginning to feel the pinch, sales-wise?

Edited August 30, 2017 by The Voord

[delekkerste]

18 hours ago, BCarter27 said:

There are modern exceptions that I love such as Tracey Emin's My Bed, but again, that has a narrative. 

<Kav's head explodes>

Edited August 30, 2017 by delekkerste

[robert frey]

that must be the prelim.

 

[Skizz]

 

[TheFifthHorseman]

On 8/27/2017 at 11:31 PM, kav said:

Well there are no Planet Comics, Venus, or Jo-Jo movies and those are 3 of the titles I most desire!!!  

Just wait - horror is coming back bigly...er, in a BIG way. Stephen King's 'It' dropping next month. Stranger Things coming back in October. Audiences are ready again to be terrified and grossed out, but with substance this time.

P.s. a beat up Venus #19 on eBay right now...

Edited August 30, 2017 by TheFifthHorseman

[kav]

6 hours ago, delekkerste said:

<Kav's head explodes>

That bed is a liefeld to my bed's neal adams.

[SquareChaos]

22 hours ago, delekkerste said:

It almost certainly won't happen.  Asset valuations are so high now that Millennials/Gen Z will not get the outsized returns that the Boomers and Gen X did on their investments (which has been a huge contributor to their wealth and buying power).  Globalization, technological changes (including automation), etc. are now a foot on the neck of job creation and wage growth; education and tech skills aren't what they used to be when you've got access to millions and millions of Chinese and Indians with those qualifications and skills willing to work for less (not to mention that AI may eventually render a lot of these tech skills obsolete).  Trend growth is not what it used to be either when the broad, long-term macro trends were more positive.  At some point, both tax rates and interest rates will likely become headwinds instead of the tailwinds they've been for the past few decades. 

And, even without ANY of that, the fact that interests have been splintered in an infinite number of directions over the past 20-25 years due to the explosion of content and communications, is enough on its own to ensure there will be fewer buyers for just about any particular category in the future than we would have had without the long-term trend disruption we've experienced since about the mid-1990s. 

 

You are mostly correct - certainly correct about globalization and the various impact it has on the buying power of younger generations.

 

But speaking as someone that makes their living writing code, I can tell you that we are likely generations away from automating away most "tech skills" based work. And I don't just say this from a blind spot / biased perspective. Robotics, AI, and automation are getting better and better at certain types of tasks, but those tasks are still the ones that either involve little variety, or involve evaluating data in a certain problem space and coming to some conclusion (Watson, etc). I'm not even certain that the long heralded arrival of self driving cars is coming as soon as people believe... my guess is you'll need some critical mass reached in the context of percentage of cars on the road that are self driving cars. From a consumer cost perspective... that could be a very long time coming, if ever.

In 10 years a bunch of  service jobs with 'no appreciable barrier to entry' are going to be fully automated into oblivion, the technology already exists, and the costs are dropping every day making it more and more feasible. The corporations of America will be forced to adopt such behaviors to compete (it will be curious to see how Germany and France and other strong worker's rights countries approach this), their executives are all liable if they don't due to their driving goals centering around shareholder value, not around sustainability. There is a big economic hurt just around the corner, and it definitely won't be isolated in the original art market.

[TheFifthHorseman]

2 minutes ago, SquareChaos said:

In 10 years a bunch of  service jobs with 'no appreciable barrier to entry' are going to be fully automated into oblivion

This.

I experience this at the USPS all the time. Lines of people 10 deep stand waiting while I use the automated service terminals to ship my packages in record time

[SquareChaos]

On 8/29/2017 at 1:50 PM, cstojano said:

Absolutely, People always say to collect what you love. Fine. But if I did that, and your point wasn't 100% valid, then my low 5 figure Bakshi collection would be a high 5 figure Bakshi collection, and I would absolutely be dying holding that stuff. Feeling like the only guy in the room with money is not fun I envy the liquidity of old school OA and vintage SW collections.

This is why I say "collect what you love being able to afford."

[kav]

2 hours ago, TheFifthHorseman said:

This.

I experience this at the USPS all the time. Lines of people 10 deep stand waiting while I use the automated service terminals to ship my packages in record time

and the people standing in line at the supermarket while I breeze right thru the self checkout lane.

[SquareChaos]

Some amount of low skill service work will continue longer than it necessarily must just due to the perceived comfort levels of older individuals with automation technology. 

[kav]

OMG I just saw this incredible work of art and it was just lying there in the street!!!!

[Bronty]

I see an incredible piece of work every time you post  

Edited August 30, 2017 by Bronty

[kav]

11 minutes ago, Bronty said:

I see an incredible piece of work every time you post  

Hyuk

[TheFifthHorseman]

27 minutes ago, kav said:

OMG I just saw this incredible work of art and it was just lying there in the street!!!!