Why comic OA is better than fine art 1 1

[vodou]

16 minutes ago, PhilipB2k17 said:

The fine art market, at its core, is a tax dodge and investment market. It's a store of value for liquid assets, for the most part. It's also a status symbol.

Only if you define the fine art market the way kav does. And assume nobody actually likes art for art's sake (?!!!) Otherwise it's every little gallery in every little town across the world, it's the street fair and flea market guys setting up their equivalent of artist alley tables, it's pretty much every estate sale out there (cuz everybody's dead uncle seems to have at least four oil paintings), etc etc etc. What you're talking about, the way I define it, is only the $10k+ sticker new market and the $100k+ pre-owned market. And there are plenty of exceptions even at those levels, where it's not a tax dodge or part of some strategic plan, levels almost nobody is playing at anyway (very steep pyramid walls here). Those numbers are now being trumped regularly and consistently by comic art, every quarter if not more often, so...for the regular guy that likes art on the street, comic art is absolutely speculatively bubbly compared to the fine art market

 

[PhilipB2k17]

5 minutes ago, vodou said:

Only if you define the fine art market the way kav does. And assume nobody actually likes art for art's sake (?!!!) Otherwise it's every little gallery in every little town across the world, it's the street fair and flea market guys setting up their equivalent of artist alley tables, it's pretty much every estate sale out there (cuz everybody's dead uncle seems to have at least four oil paintings), etc etc etc. What you're talking about, the way I define it, is only the $10k+ sticker new market and the $100k+ pre-owned market. And there are plenty of exceptions even at those levels, where it's not a tax dodge or part of some strategic plan, levels almost nobody is playing at anyway (very steep pyramid walls here). Those numbers are now being trumped regularly and consistently by comic art, every quarter if not more often, so...for the regular guy that likes art on the street, comic art is absolutely speculatively bubbly compared to the fine art market

 

I like a lot of art. I see a lot of young, hungry artists at cons with portfolios. I don't buy their stuff, despite like some of it. Why? It's unpublished? I buy only published art, or art I think will be published. I don't even buy commissions from established artists  

The modern art market is similar. It just takes one patron or gallery owner to get you kickstarted. But most of these artists struggle to sell their stuff, and languish. 

And, It not always because the art isn't good. 

Edited August 28, 2017 by PhilipB2k17

[vodou]

5 minutes ago, PhilipB2k17 said:

I'd guess that the ratio of Comic Collectors to OA collectors is at least 10 to 1.  Just reducing that ratio to 9 or 8 to one adds a lot of new money chasing OA than existed before.

So not new money, just old money recycling. That's not growth is asset reallocation. And it assumes all that old money (comics) can be liquified at FMV. Who's the new money that's going to cash those guys out at FMV+growth? (so they can reallocate into art!)

[PhilipB2k17]

1 minute ago, vodou said:

So not new money, just old money recycling. That's not growth is asset reallocation. And it assumes all that old money (comics) can be liquified at FMV. Who's the new money that's going to cash those guys out at FMV+growth? (so they can reallocate into art!)

Of course it's new money...in the OA hobby. If Warren Buffet decided to buy OA tomorrow, it's still new money in ~this~ hobby, if not generally. That's what matters. 

[vodou]

1 minute ago, PhilipB2k17 said:

I like a lot of art. I see a lot of young, hungry artists at cons with portfolios. I don't buy their stuff, despite like some of it. Why? It's unpublished, and who knows if they will ever get that shot? 

The modern art market is similar. It just takes one patron or gallery owner to get you kickstarted. But most of these artists struggle to sell their stuff, and languish. 

And, It not always because the art isn't good. 

Okay. But please allow that others exist too, like me, that do buy even if there's no gatekeeper giving them assurances and context. It's a different game for sure, but a lot easier once you've come out of comics (and other collectibles) and understand people's motivations...the people are always the same (psychologically) it's what they objectify that's different. Or maybe I'm just really really good at it? (doubtful! )

[vodou]

Just now, PhilipB2k17 said:

Of course it's new money...in the OA hobby. If Warren Buffet decided to buy OA tomorrow, it's still new money in ~this~ hobby, if not generally. That's what matters. 

That's moving the goalposts. So now it's a flood of billionaires (or every single Chinese and Indian that went from $1/day to $50/day income?) that want comics, and the guys that sell the comics for unbelievably frothy sums are going to reinvest at even frothier levels of comic art? Well...it's an idea.

[PhilipB2k17]

12 minutes ago, vodou said:

That's moving the goalposts. So now it's a flood of billionaires (or every single Chinese and Indian that went from $1/day to $50/day income?) that want comics, and the guys that sell the comics for unbelievably frothy sums are going to reinvest at even frothier levels of comic art? Well...it's an idea.

That's an extreme example. But, I think there are a lot of Gen Exers and Millennial comic book collectors who do not also currently collect OA. And I think that ratio is quite large. If you reduce the ratio just a few spaces, that's a lot of new blood into the hobby. And these people would then be in the hobby for, potentially, decades.

Whether that trend continues after Gen X, is a good question. But, keep in mind that Millennials are now the largest generation in the US. Gen Ex is quite small by comparison. So, you could theoretically see a significantly smaller percentage of Millennials collecting comics or OA, but still not see much of a drop off in actual numbers of collectors in the hobby as the baby boomers pass from the scene.

I believe that the explosion of pop culture cons as going to fuel an interest in the OA hobby among Millennials, actually. They go to these things to cosplay, or to see their favorite movie or TV star, but then discover artist alleys, and realize that you can BUY original art from comics that are being made into TV series and Films. So, I think that the movies and TV shows may not necessarily be creating new comic book collectors, but a lot of these fans do go back and read the collected editions of these books because they are interested in the source material. So, I could see Millennials with a generational desire to support things that are "authentic" being drawn to the Original art for these things. But, who knows?

And then, there is the potential internationalization of the hobby. Modern OA has no word balloons, so there is no language barrier that may dissuade some collectors. Again, it's a potentially huge market out there.

Edited August 28, 2017 by PhilipB2k17

[delekkerste]

27 minutes ago, PhilipB2k17 said:

I think Gene is mostly correct that long term demographics probably do not favor comic books or even OA as an investment. But, I think medium term, the hobby (OA, particularly) will grow. I just attended a Con and know several dealers who were there. They know I collect OA, and are asking me more questions about getting into it. I know this is anecdotal, but the universe of comic collectors is still larger than OA collectors, and there's still a lot of room to grow in OA by converting comic collectors into OA collectors. There's at least 20 years of that potential growth, I think.

But, that is a subject that is not wholly related to this thread. The fine art market, at its core, is a tax dodge and investment market. It's a store of value for liquid assets, for the most part. It's also a status symbol. There are a few OA artists who are breaking through into that realm, such as Frazetta and Crumb. And I expect a few more will eventually. 

Will physical comic collecting go away? I think people buying individual issues might. But, I think folks will shift to collecting trades, and that may be how these things come out in the future, along with digital. Remember how Amazon and the Kindle was going to kill physical book sales? It dipped initially, but people actually like reading physical books. As long as there is a desire for illustrated sequential storytelling, there will be comic book OA

 

 

No doubt that the OA hobby has been on a growth upswing (I'm talking vintage mainstream OA).  No one is saying that the hobby is already declining.  Nobody!! That it isn't is plainly obvious.

But, I'm skeptical that it will go from strength to strength over the next 20 years.  It's like Felix said he noted when he first got into the hobby - it's mostly guys around his/our age. It was true in 2005 and it's still true today.  I would say that most longtime collectors in this cohort have already spent 51-100% of what they will ever spend on OA.  Even the biggest BSDs have admitted as much either in conversation or publicly (like on the Felix podcast).  Fact is, priorities change, and I doubt that many of us will still be going at it at 65 as we were at 45.  I know for a fact that some of the biggest collections out there are planning to be sold by then. 

And when the liquidations come...look out.  The Tony Christopher collection was a one-off, when prices were pennies on today's dollar with the biggest OA collecting generation just starting their ascent. It will be entirely different when we get big collections being liquidated constantly over years at hugely higher prices into a smaller collecting generation coming up behind us.  Anyone who thinks the future is so unknowable that we can't predict the outcome is totally delusional. 

 

I think the jury is still out on digital books. I suspect that the resurgence of paper is the aberration, not the in-roads that digital made.  Wait another generation and I bet e-books will have more share than they do today. 

Frazetta has a lot of cachet among comic and fantasy art fans, but practically zero in the fine art world.  I am skeptical that the younger generations will take to the art as much as we did...it doesn't really fit the modern vibe or aesthetic, and isn't something that transcends time either, IMO.  

[vodou]

PhilipB2k17 my point was there's a real risk that new money (blood what have you) is not entering comics at a pace greater than inflation and incomes, and most (all?) of the growth that OA has seen and is enjoying is asset rotation only. That will end as soon as the line of suckers runs out of money. So who are the suckers? Maybe those buying anything CGC that isn't a 100% key in top condition? So unless you think that line is getting longer or will be throwing even more money away on the "wrong" books...

[PhilipB2k17]

2 minutes ago, delekkerste said:

No doubt that the OA hobby has been on a growth upswing (I'm talking vintage mainstream OA).  No one is saying that the hobby is already declining.  Nobody!! That it isn't is plainly obvious.

But, I'm skeptical that it will go from strength to strength over the next 20 years.  It's like Felix said he noted when he first got into the hobby - it's mostly guys around his/our age. It was true in 2005 and it's still true today.  I would say that most longtime collectors in this cohort have already spent 51-100% of what they will ever spend on OA.  Even the biggest BSDs have admitted as much either in conversation or publicly (like on the Felix podcast).  Fact is, priorities change, and I doubt that many of us will still be going at it at 65 as we were at 45.  I know for a fact that some of the biggest collections out there are planning to be sold by then. 

And when the liquidations come...look out.  The Tony Christopher collection was a one-off, when prices were pennies on today's dollar with the biggest OA collecting generation just starting their ascent. It will be entirely different when we get big collections being liquidated constantly over years at hugely higher prices into a smaller collecting generation coming up behind us.  Anyone who thinks the future is so unknowable that we can't predict the outcome is totally delusional. 

 

I think the jury is still out on digital books. I suspect that the resurgence of paper is the aberration, not the in-roads that digital made.  Wait another generation and I bet e-books will have more share than they do today. 

Frazetta has a lot of cachet among comic and fantasy art fans, but practically zero in the fine art world.  I am skeptical that the younger generations will take to the art as much as we did...it doesn't really fit the modern vibe or aesthetic, and isn't something that transcends time either, IMO.  

I think the same way about Crumb. I really doubt future generations are going to want that stuff.

But, I generally agree with you. That's why I set the timeline at around the 20 year mark, when you will see all the Gen Ex and Baby Boomer collections getting dumped into the market.

[SquareChaos]

3 hours ago, vodou said:

For me it's The Orientalists. I blame Bud Plant's catalogs for that, there was a period (90s?) where he highlighted several coffee table books on the subject every single mailing. For (seemed like) a decade. Until June of this year they were all just pictures in books for me, then I (finally) got to The Met and wow...they, as a group, really are something else.

The Met is one of those handful of museums where a visit may change even a wide ranging world traveler's life. Their collection is just staggering.

[delekkerste]

12 minutes ago, PhilipB2k17 said:

I believe that the explosion of pop culture cons as going to fuel an interest in the OA hobby among Millennials, actually. They go to these things to cosplay, or to see their favorite movie or TV star, but then discover artist alleys, and realize that you can BUY original art from comics that are being made into TV series and Films. So, I think that the movies and TV shows may not necessarily be creating new comic book collectors, but a lot of these fans do go back and read the collected editions of these books because they are interested in the source material. So, I could see Millennials with a generational desire to support things that are "authentic" being drawn to the Original art for these things

A few lost souls wander into Artists Alley and some even buy Modern art from their favorite niche indie titles and such. But then you go hang out at Albert's or Burkey's or Bechara's and there's no Millennial wanderers there. And why would there be when there's all this art that means little to them personally, stickered at 4, 5 and 6 figures. 

 

 

Edited August 28, 2017 by delekkerste

[SquareChaos]

5 hours ago, kav said:

https://www.cgccomics.com/boards/topic/420947-poll-age-of-people-who-collect-ga-or-want-to-collect-ga/

I would have preferred to see it broken up more clearly along decades, and included response for the same age ranges to say I do not collect GA, but it may still be interesting to see the results.

[PhilipB2k17]

6 minutes ago, vodou said:

PhilipB2k17 my point was there's a real risk that new money (blood what have you) is not entering comics at a pace greater than inflation and incomes, and most (all?) of the growth that OA has seen and is enjoying is asset rotation only. That will end as soon as the line of suckers runs out of money. So who are the suckers? Maybe those buying anything CGC that isn't a 100% key in top condition? So unless you think that line is getting longer or will be throwing even more money away on the "wrong" books...

I think the smart play in OA collecting, right now, is buying modern art from books that are popular, selling well, or have cultural cache. Those pages have the most growth potential. I think some 90's stuff might have potential as well. But, I think the baby boomer driven stuff is due for a huge market correction. Top level Kirby, or Ditko, etc should hold up. But after that, look out. .

Edited August 28, 2017 by PhilipB2k17

[vodou]

4 minutes ago, delekkerste said:

... when we get big collections being liquidated constantly over years at hugely higher prices into a smaller collecting generation coming up behind us.

Huge assumption (underlined) here...I think we see the softness occur after the first year of this.

 

5 minutes ago, delekkerste said:

I am skeptical that the younger generations will take to the [Frazetta] art as much as we did...it doesn't really fit the modern vibe or aesthetic, and isn't something that transcends time either, IMO.  

To the underlined...likely viewed as horribly misogynistic and both genders stereotypical (thus disgusting). They may just end up hating us for "taste" in art

[SquareChaos]

1 minute ago, delekkerste said:

A few lost souls wander into Artists Alley and some even buy Modern art from their favorite niche indie titles and such. But then you go hang out at Albert's or Burkey's or Bechara's and there's no Millennial wanderers there. And why would there be whem there's all this art that means little to them personally, stickered at 4, 5 and 6 figures. 

 

 

A lot of that art means something to me, I just refuse to pay such prices (at least, so far... I'm sure many are aware of the struggle). I'll content myself with modern OA and play the role of vulture if this predicted crash ever comes in 10 or 20 years.

[PhilipB2k17]

1 minute ago, delekkerste said:

A few lost souls wander into Artists Alley and some even buy Modern art from their favorite niche indie titles and such. But then you go hang out at Albert's or Burkey's or Bechara's and there's no Millennial wanderers there. And why would there be whem there's all this art that means little to them personally, stickered at 4, 5 and 6 figures. 

 

 

That's my point. The nostalgia driven art market of the near future will not be Boomer driven.

[SquareChaos]

Just now, PhilipB2k17 said:

That's my point. The nostalgia driven art market of the near future will not be Boomer driven.

I believe his point is, if you look at the numbers, even lumping in graphic novels, that the audience doesn't appear to be there. It has been well discussed on these boards even over the past year or two.

[PhilipB2k17]

1 minute ago, SquareChaos said:

A lot of that art means something to me, I just refuse to pay such prices (at least, so far... I'm sure many are aware of the struggle). I'll content myself with modern OA and play the role of vulture if this predicted crash ever comes in 10 or 20 years.

I also think a lot of it has to do with the business model. When guys like Albert and Anthony Snyder retire, and you get a more Millennial friendly generation of dealers, I think you may see a different result. Much of it has to do with Marketing. Guys like Felix are going to make inroads with the new generation, I feel (although he's a rep, not a second hand dealer). And there is a lot of potential there.

 

[PhilipB2k17]

2 minutes ago, SquareChaos said:

I believe his point is, if you look at the numbers, even lumping in graphic novels, that the audience doesn't appear to be there. It has been well discussed on these boards even over the past year or two.

The problem is, people can read graphic novels at a public library, or online, and it would never show up in sales figures. Yes. You can read comics for free, if you know where to look online. Millennials do that. That's why I think a comprehensive market study should be done. And, I suspect it HAS been done by savvy investment guys or hedge funders, which is one reason why you are seeing speculator/investor money starting to enter the hobby.