Why comic OA is better than fine art 1 1

[SquareChaos]

Just now, PhilipB2k17 said:

The problem is, people can read graphic novels at a public library, or online, and it would never show up in sales figures. Yes. You can read comics for free, if you know where to look online. Millennials do that. That's why I think a comprehensive market study should be done. And, I suspect it HAS been done by savvy investment guys or hedge funders, which is one reason why you are seeing speculator/investor money starting to enter the hobby.

All of that is totally possible. But we can only really talk about what we know to be true, and those are the numbers we have.

[PhilipB2k17]

10 minutes ago, delekkerste said:

A few lost souls wander into Artists Alley and some even buy Modern art from their favorite niche indie titles and such. But then you go hang out at Albert's or Burkey's or Bechara's and there's no Millennial wanderers there. And why would there be whem there's all this art that means little to them personally, stickered at 4, 5 and 6 figures. 

 

 

One additional point. Gene points out what I think is a problem with marketing, not so much lack of interest. The dealers are marketing to boomers and Gen Exers (But, mostly boomers) at Pop Culture cons which has a heavy Millennial attendance.

 

[ComicConnoisseur]

12 hours ago, AnkurJ said:

True. However social media and movies have made these characters much more globally recognized than ever before. New collectors are born every day due to the movies, not due to current comics. When the movies stop, the nostalgia factor will slow down in my opinion. Things don't just keep going up. Like all things, there will be a cycle where art and comics will trend down.

Everybody assumes they are going to stop like westerns. They are not going to stop.Certainly Batman and Spider-Man movies won't stop.  They have been making Batman movies for almost 30 years now. They are billion dollar franchises each Batman and Spider-Man fueled by Warner and Disney marketing. AF#15 and Detective Comics#27 are mainstream popculture grails. They are vastly different than old funiture that new genertions have lost interest in. In fact  AF#15 and Detective Comics#27 are two of the best bets going forward in all the collectibles category as future upside.

Certain pop cultural fictional characters first appearances are better than old antiques because these characters can keep reinventing themselves unlike the old revolutionary furniture can to new mainstream audiences. 

Look at James Bond his movies have been around over 50 years now, and his first book Casino Royale is worth more now than ever.

Most mainstream is more impressed with Spider-Man and Batman's first appearance than if you have some 200 year old Windsor chair.

Edited August 28, 2017 by ComicConnoisseur

[PhilipB2k17]

1 minute ago, SquareChaos said:

All of that is totally possible. But we can only really talk about what we know to be true, and those are the numbers we have.

Well, that's because there has been no publicly released comprehensive market study done. People are speculating based on sales figures. But, how many people are going to these comic book films, or watching these TV shows? A whole lot. It seems logic that at least SOME percentage of them would be converted to reading the source material, and then collecting the OA. And not all of them are necessarily lapsed comic readers from the 70's, 80's or 90's.

[PhilipB2k17]

13 minutes ago, vodou said:

Huge assumption (underlined) here...I think we see the softness occur after the first year of this.

 

To the underlined...likely viewed as horribly misogynistic and both genders stereotypical (thus disgusting). They may just end up hating us for "taste" in art

That's possible. But, Frazetta also has the benefit of rarity on his side. There are not a lot of Frazetta fantasy covers out there. So, you don't NEED the universe of buyers to be large. You just need a few dozen rich people who want to pay for this stuff. Exactly like the modern art market.

[SquareChaos]

1 minute ago, PhilipB2k17 said:

Well, that's because there has been no publicly released comprehensive market study done. People are speculating based on sales figures. But, how many people are going to these comic book films, or watching these TV shows? A whole lot. It seems logic that at least SOME percentage of them would be converted to reading the source material, and then collecting the OA. And not all of them are necessarily lapsed comic readers from the 70's, 80's or 90's.

Yes, the movies are the big pop culture fad right now, but all of this has been discussed a lot too. The millions of people seeing the movies haven't shown a huge bump to monthly comic book sales (which may be explained by how bad the Big Two are right now in general, who knows) so, again, all you can really do is guess and extrapolate.

Also, it seems (generally stated) that millennials are basically broke. This isn't a cheap hobby, even in the modern OA market. 

[Pete Marino]

Quick google search found this article from 4 years ago, i'm sure it hasn't changed much.

 

https://www.publishersweekly.com/pw/by-topic/industry-news/libraries/article/57093-how-graphic-novels-became-the-hottest-section-in-the-library.html

 

one of the lines that really stuck out to me.  One librarian said graphic novels are 10% of the books, but account for 35% of the circulation.

 

So people, a lot of people, young and old are reading comics today.  And they're not being counted in the comicchron, and they're not just reading new floppies out today.

[ComicConnoisseur]

1 hour ago, SquareChaos said:

Yes, the movies are the big pop culture fad right now, but all of this has been discussed a lot too. The millions of people seeing the movies haven't shown a huge bump to monthly comic book sales (which may be explained by how bad the Big Two are right now in general, who knows) so, again, all you can really do is guess and extrapolate.

Also, it seems (generally stated) that millennials are basically broke. This isn't a cheap hobby, even in the modern OA market. 

If you go on EBAY right now you will see under complete sales both Batman and Spider-Man each has sold over 150,000 auctions. That is huge when you look at the Beatles at 50,000 and Michael Jordan at 25,000.

The only thing bigger in sales are Pokemon and Star Wars in the same time frame. I think this board really understimates how popular these super heroes really are. I wouldn't go by monthly sales because why would anybody savy buy a monthly comic at $3.99 when you can get it for a buck a few months later on Ebay or in lcs longbox?

 

Edited August 28, 2017 by ComicConnoisseur

[PhilipB2k17]

Just now, SquareChaos said:

Yes, the movies are the big pop culture fad right now, but all of this has been discussed a lot too. The millions of people seeing the movies haven't shown a huge bump to monthly comic book sales (which may be explained by how bad the Big Two are right now in general, who knows) so, again, all you can really do is guess and extrapolate.

Also, it seems (generally stated) that millennials are basically broke. This isn't a cheap hobby, even in the modern OA market. 

Again, we can go back and forth on these things all we want. But, unless we have a comprehensive market study done, I don't think it matters. What I do think is going to happens is that a lot of the speculative boom that is buoying run of the mill lowe end OA stuff will cool off significantly over the next few years, and that will ironically lower the barrier of entry.

[SquareChaos]

2 minutes ago, Pete Marino said:

Quick google search found this article from 4 years ago, i'm sure it hasn't changed much.

 

https://www.publishersweekly.com/pw/by-topic/industry-news/libraries/article/57093-how-graphic-novels-became-the-hottest-section-in-the-library.html

 

one of the lines that really stuck out to me.  One librarian said graphic novels are 10% of the books, but account for 35% of the circulation.

 

So people, a lot of people, young and old are reading comics today.  And they're not being counted in the comicchron, and they're not just reading new floppies out today.

 

I have a couple of bookshelves full of graphic novels myself - and I know several others who collect the same type of hardcovers I do. Graphic novels have definitely arrived. 

I'm curious if it'll make hardcover collections / TPB covers more sought after for the small number of people that migrate to OA, but for me it is a purely academic as I'm not a cover collector.

 

The real unaswerable question though... what percentage of library borrowers even start buying comic books or graphic novels, let alone OA? It is all very hard to predict.

[vodou]

4 minutes ago, Pete Marino said:

Quick google search found this article from 4 years ago, i'm sure it hasn't changed much.

 

https://www.publishersweekly.com/pw/by-topic/industry-news/libraries/article/57093-how-graphic-novels-became-the-hottest-section-in-the-library.html

 

one of the lines that really stuck out to me.  One librarian said graphic novels are 10% of the books, but account for 35% of the circulation.

 

So people, a lot of people, young and old are reading comics today.  And they're not being counted in the comicchron, and they're not just reading new floppies out today.

That's interesting. And my first pushback was that library usage is very much in decline (I was a Trustee for a decade, stepping down only last year). Well not so, according to Wikipedia's section on public libraries: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trends_in_library_usage

Who knows, maybe it does all work out...but maybe not at 25% growth per annum into perpetuity.

[SquareChaos]

1 minute ago, PhilipB2k17 said:

Again, we can go back and forth on these things all we want. But, unless we have a comprehensive market study done, I don't think it matters. What I do think is going to happens is that a lot of the speculative boom that is buoying run of the mill lowe end OA stuff will cool off significantly over the next few years, and that will ironically lower the barrier of entry.

Right, that is basically what I said when you first brought it up 

[PhilipB2k17]

5 minutes ago, Pete Marino said:

Quick google search found this article from 4 years ago, i'm sure it hasn't changed much.

 

https://www.publishersweekly.com/pw/by-topic/industry-news/libraries/article/57093-how-graphic-novels-became-the-hottest-section-in-the-library.html

 

one of the lines that really stuck out to me.  One librarian said graphic novels are 10% of the books, but account for 35% of the circulation.

 

So people, a lot of people, young and old are reading comics today.  And they're not being counted in the comicchron, and they're not just reading new floppies out today.

Yep. And that is growing. Add in free online reading, and there is a lot of exposure to the source material and the art. So, you have a generation (Millennials) that is consuming this stuff, likes the movies and TV shows, and is increasingly exposed to the art. Eventually, a certain percentage of them will have money to spend. And they are the largest generation in the country. And will be for the next 50 years.

They also have a taste for authenticity, and things that are "artisanal." That points directly to OA as a hobby that could benefit. But, you have a huge OA collecting generation leaving the scene during this same tume frame (the Boomers), who also had a lot of disposable income. So, you could very well see a drop, or a levelling off in the hobby.

[vodou]

1 minute ago, SquareChaos said:

Right, that is basically what I said when you first brought it up 

I'm sure the studies have been done ad nauseum by the marketing concerns at Time Warner and Disney, but they just aren't sharing them with us. That would be comics though, and we're still left with extrapolating to OA, and only then reading the tea leaves for the future of OA. And each breakout segment too. The real caveat here is to always be careful not to believe too much of your bs...we're all wrong often enough that some humility is probably a good thing, especially when it comes to dreams of making one's first million in...comic art

[PhilipB2k17]

Id also add that the MIX of Millennial collectors is more gender balanced relative to the Baby Boom and Gen Ex collectors. It's still Male dominated, but that will become much less so over the next 20 years.

[PhilipB2k17]

Just now, vodou said:

I'm sure the studies have been done ad nauseum by the marketing concerns at Time Warner and Disney, but they just aren't sharing them with us. That would be comics though, and we're still left with extrapolating to OA, and only then reading the tea leaves for the future of OA. And each breakout segment too. The real caveat here is to always be careful not to believe too much of your bs...we're all wrong often enough that some humility is probably a good thing, especially when it comes to dreams of making one's first million in...comic art

Yep. This comes back to the age old adage: Buy what you like. If you love the stuff you have, it's market value is mostly irrelevant.

[SquareChaos]

1 minute ago, vodou said:

I'm sure the studies have been done ad nauseum by the marketing concerns at Time Warner and Disney, but they just aren't sharing them with us. That would be comics though, and we're still left with extrapolating to OA, and only then reading the tea leaves for the future of OA. And each breakout segment too. The real caveat here is to always be careful not to believe too much of your bs...we're all wrong often enough that some humility is probably a good thing, especially when it comes to dreams of making one's first million in...comic art

As they say, always have an open mind, but not so open that your brain falls out.

[vodou]

1 minute ago, PhilipB2k17 said:

Id also add that the MIX of Millennial collectors is more gender balanced relative to the Baby Boom and Gen Ex collectors. It's still Male dominated, but that will become much less so over the next 20 years.

Goodbye Frazetta values then, unless John Milius's children carry the torch!

[PhilipB2k17]

2 minutes ago, vodou said:

Goodbye Frazetta values then, unless John Milius's children carry the torch!

I don't think higher end Frazetta is going to collapse. With the popularity of Game of Thrones, sword and sorcery stuff is as popular as it's ever been. Hell, even Dungeons and Dragons is making a comeback.

Edited August 28, 2017 by PhilipB2k17

[suspense39]

5 hours ago, delekkerste said:

I was in Liverpool the past few days (en route to Scotland now) and saw some amazing Pre-Raphaelite examples at the local museums (Walker Art Gallery and Lady Lever Art Gallery). "Funny how comic guys in their 40s-60s seem to revere PRB art more than just about anyone else" - must be the BWS and, to a lesser extent, Studio-era Jones influences.

I also saw Tracey Emin's iconic "My Bed" at the Tate Liverpool, which I'm sure would have caused Kav to "Hulk out". 

"Funny how comic guys in their 40s-60s seem to revere PRB art more than just about anyone else"

 

haha! so true